Typhoon Tip

Thank you guys, very much, for those well-wishes during this time welling over in sorrow. I lost my job this last December, and in lot of very pragmatic ways more so than symbolic, it was a well-timed inconvenience. Perhaps the trope, 'things happen for a reason,' is more than mere platitude. My sister needed regular shuttling to and fro for treatments - her ability to do so had become too compromised, and the rest of family and friends spread out quite far ... with her weakened immune system and Covid - it just was what it was, thankfully. It was a time to reflect of course, ... but delving deeper into life and philosophy become quite difficult to plumb when what lurks there is finality. Her cancer was incurable, though she was trying. Even I was perhaps denying, for her faculties never faded, right up to the end. Fully cognizant. Acutely, cruelly aware. Her lucidity along the days, it just made it so difficulty to see a future in this way. And so now in hindsight, I was too disconnected: that was her journey of death. If that's what that looks like, no one is safe. I'm pretty sure this run-in with Covid was helped along by traversing that reality.

Define a shit week: Sister dies, two days later, COVID positive ...

'atmospheric ducting' .... the typical nocturnal inversion (also) gets enhanced by/when rain cools(ed) air. But the sound waves travel more efficiently in the cooler denser air, such that they deflect back downward along the elevated boundary - it's quasi-amplification process. Thunder typically does sound louder at night in those settings. In mid summer, breezy and cT air types ..not so much, because the nocturnal inversion is either too shallow and/or doesn't exist at all.

Not to be priggish but ... I was analyzing the fields on the various guidance more closely and it appears to me that the warm front never actually gets through here in the first place. The models pin it south through the week. They may raise sfc pressure modestly to 'rub it in' Wed but it first materializes through PA Monday and arcs E but S of SNE...and doesn't actually end up N of us at any time afterward... I'm okay with it really. Ne'er had expectations/ambitions for that to succeed. Hell, it's the month of Anus ... (Jan, Feb, Mar, Anus, May...). It's the planned cold dumpster timing of the planetary system to use specifically New England as a means to offset the entire climate change quota That said, Monday ends up 67 at 5 pm amid imperceptible west drift for me in that look. Easy call that MOS is likely too chilly in that look. Euro has 56 in the area? joke. It'll be milder than that with those synoptic params. I mean, as long as it ain't pointing Labrador's butt as us ... I don't have expectations beyond 67 with near or at full sun, anyway, and with light west flag wobbles (no ocean) we don't need warm sectors VIP to party. Still a chance to modulate of course.

Tomorrow and Saturday look surprisingly mild actually... Also, Euro backed off the BD next week considerably - though at this range we are still no where close to trusting that. But as is, this 12z run synopsis suggest CT/western MA ascend deep into the 70s Wed and Thur, and you could argue the low 70s Tuesday afternoon. It's been vacillating on that ..

It doesn't look that way from what I'm seeing over the overnight information. Oh ...it could turn out that way, a 'torch,' subjectivity of that expression notwithstanding... but for now? Not really. The Euro is now two consecutive runs with a BD that would penetrate to at least central NJ in that look - both yesterday's 12z and this recent 00z last evening. That ends it on Wednesday mid day for SNH and in reality, ...it's slamming screen doors and taut flags cutting back SW during the afternoon in that synopsis it shows - that's both experience and climo talking there. You should probably keep in mind, that is more typical spring into early summer behavior in our climatology, warm mid ranges that end up only delivering the first day of the series before the reality obtrudes. The GFS seems less BD, but just is so hurried and progressive with over all flow, that by the time the warm sector comes in the front's already knocking on the regional door mid week. Not only that, because it is ablating the top of the ridge so flat ( I suspected bias in this range ), it's not cleaning out the warm sector when it arrives. That's called a 'dirty sector' ... Despite those hydrostatic heights nearing 560 dm... you're skies are misty. Welcome to the 60s with occasional light showers whisking by in between splashes of sun. It'll help green up, sure... but otherwise? that's getting jipped. GGEM doesn't look a whole helluva lot different than the GFS. I wonder if folks are seeing the general curvature of the non-hydrostatic height/500 mb circulation manifold, and running to the bank with it. The details of the operational runs say pump the breaks. I'm not suggesting a cleaned out/longer period warming can't happen ... But it seems the details are being ignored. And, also fits climo for the month of Anus to not succeed the former. It's all 120+ hours so there's time. We'll see if there swing back in favor of opening things up again.

dry air doesn't fit the CC model but ... we'll see - I'm not here to disagree; just adding info

No one asked me so ... not intending to butt-in, but I don't have a problem with nuclear at all. It's a matter of prioritizing, within reason, as a transient gap control. That is/for while green technologies come of age and come on line. In other words, no one should be suggesting we fire up the reactors and walk away interminably. Spent fuel can be disposed of for 50 years worth, and it probably would not take that long anyway. It's all bullshit. If there was a gun pointed at policy maker heads, we'd ave 10% carbon foot print in 10 years but it's excuses that originate from sources that either don't believe, or don't understand, where this problem is: against the bubble.

it appears to be a shittier outlier comparing all disappointing EPS fields ...so.

there it is... the Euro limits the warm up to just one day.

by the way ... i f'n covid so if i sound in posts like i hate you i do... just so we understand each other.

No what's likely to happen is countless nights at 78 F with highs muted by theta-e ... So yeah, you get the 'hottest summer on record' barely above 92

Also, Monday could be a gem day. Even though those annoying blue lines on the hydrostatic charts are still meandering thru... it's like Scott said a couple weeks ago. At this time of year, we can push 62 under 534 thickness when under an unabated sun that's just dumping rads into the environment. With wind veering west during the day, likely goes above MOS which is 59 at KFIT/KASH/KBED already. Still not convinced we get through mid week unscathed by BD. That flow is unconvincingly otherwise. The ridge is likely real ..but it's too pancaked. And the non-hydrostatic heights are not exceptionally tall... The flow is fast over top and just begging for a confluence to ripple through Ontario. Last couple runs of GFS/Euro are benefiting from merely not seeing anything there but that's real precarious. I've seen this too many times in the past, and the warmest day ends up being like Monday, and then Tuesday gets interrupted... Then when it was originally supposed to really get warm on Wednesday, 42 from NYC up drinking a big cup of bust "whine".

There's shrubbery and lawn already but next week ... barring a BD inclusion, would likely really accelerate the green-up progress.

Nice 16 bump over climo at the end of the MEX machine #s is pretty impressive ... KFIT GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/06/2022 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 WED 06| THU 07| FRI 08| SAT 09| SUN 10| MON 11| TUE 12| WED 13 CLIMO X/N 53| 38 55| 40 57| 43 56| 37 56| 34 59| 36 65| 49 70 33 54

It's true there is circumstantially some built in variance that makes it nastier back this way than where you are, but this early in the season ( April's) ? - you will get hammered with 42 F NE cold drill this early. So it's 38 here and 42 there... Point being, it's too earlier to count on your geographic region to be 'protecting you' ... You'll need to give it another month, and then that will pay dividends/more like to help out. By the way, fairly large correction on this 18z GFS back toward more height falls in the SW lending to a more robust ridge/longevity in the east. The sfc featuring also much less BD saddled. It may not be right, just as much as the 12z brutal cold layout - which was true for everybody on that run, btw - may not be right, but I think it stands out as model instability. We are talking D6 - 10 for that warm spell - whatever comes of it... That's plenty of time to afix it one way or the other. Again...just reporting the better interpretation of the guidance just scene - not intending to use out of hand.

Don't panic Kevin... we're not saying "they are going to get that right" - we're just being honest about what they are indicating at this time. It's called actual Meteorological analysis - just fyi ... And that unfortunately, BD butt banging actually has a column in database tables at CPC. The column headers literally say,... "heating deg day | cooling deg day | daily anomaly | day high | day low | butt banged | ...." etc That said, you're characterization of 'how these typically end up' is laughably spun to the point of divorced from reality if/when thinking that is true in the month of f'n April. I'd give that to you from May 20th and onward, but BD climo is importing air masses off obscenely cold oceanic waters, and lingering snow pack over eastern Canada... I realize you just don't like them and it goes against the desired narrative, but it is what it is...

Looks to me like the 12z GFS is buckin' for a complete exclusion from that warm up next week at all at this point. Slams a violent BD/n-door front thru so aggressively that it pinches the warm south right under that ridge. Main front comes thru a day and a half later and we're still frosting at night. Welcome to April - you were warned

The other aspect I am noticing is ...well two-fold. One, this has moved up in time. It's not been temporal-stable in the guidance. It was supposed to be ~ the 15th through the 20th ( the end uncertain...)... Now it's more like the 13th through the 16th - so it has also shrunk. This overall trend to me suggests the models are attempting to morph this into just a warm sector given time. It is all still 7+ days away... Two, the models are also speeding up the hemisphere a little bit. Not as much so as January, no, but as that extended range has come from D11-15 to D7 to 11 ... the flow is trying to add progressive behavior. That's probably why this has moved closer in time by a couple three days, but it tells me that we are not really ready to surge out of winter into a deep spring - I was thinking that may occur with this thing, but my confidence on that being the case is a bit rattled based on these observations. Again...it's a week+ away ... The the models will wax and wane in allowing seasonality into the runs.

06z GFS might be a little less coherent with BDFs but ... again, our climate begs the caveat emptor - man... you assume any 70 to 80 ridge housing opportunity ends up not an opportunity, excluding everywhere NE of NYC( and no snow either. give that up).

I credit the state of the art of the technology in modeling to be so petty detailed in mangling the surface PP around BD presentation from 7 days away the way all models are for next week's warm head "fake" - we'll see on the later. That's pretty good. When I was coming of Met age in the 1990's, ...no model had much of any clue about those sort of no warm or fun for you features at all. They only saw the larger synoptic ridge.

Whatever ...stop trying set the table, dude. If a BD comes through, it's 42 and slate gray skies clear to NYC. LOL c'mon man.

Having said that... May 2005 is still the worst month that has ever happened in the space-time continuum existence of this planet. Ironically... no April has ever been that bad.

Yeah... who was I mentioning this too - can't remember. But there's probably like 1::12 or 1::9 type of return rate on median passable Aprils, otherwise, the more common rendition falls beneath whatever 'median' is in this context - so some subjectivity to that. I don't think 3 days nicking 70, while the other 20 some odd days are < 60 ... ass loads of cold rain... NE wind days ... putrid car top slush, saves any face for example. I've just been wilted too many times. I'm not going to stick the flower of optimism out there ever again for this piece of shit climate anus that seems to shit in your bed in direct deliberate proportion to said optimism. Like I said last page or two ago, you count on the BDF screwing it up, whether it is on the model or not, in a scenario like that next week. Then, it's a daily elimination game to remove having one occur, day by day.

Mm... there's personal preference to that statement - it doesn't apply to all. I've seen open cobalt blue skies at 44 F with strong NE wind on the coast ... in MAY - if it can suck donkey ballz that big in May, April is definitely a piece of shit in the sun sometimes. Just sayn' ...I admit today is a beaut, and tomorrow likely too - but these are not really 'normal' in this particular calendar space. Speaking of which ... next Tuesday on the Euro and GGEM looks like utopia on tap.