Typhoon Tip

Perhaps ... but it's a grim prospect. The world is in the early phases of acceptance of this as an actual crisis. It will take too much time to do that ( unfortunately...). At some inevitable point in the [probably ] not too far off future, evidences of CC will have become the louder voice in the chorus of perceived travails ..etc. Expectations are going to be rudely usurped, when the enabling faux safety of the Industrial bubble begins to resonate with real imby-discomforts and (haha) the "inconvenience of truth" - whether it is unilaterally understood/accepted or not. ( probably not ..which is why forced adjustment over the next 100 years will likely lend to scaled warfares ). Reminds me in a lot of ways of the Neil DeGrasse Tyson quote, "The beautiful thing about science is it is true whether you believe it or not" The Industrial bubble, created ultimately by scientific methods, enables denying the conclusions of science - now that's an interesting point-blank implication of the catch-22 and the Fermian explanation. A reality that may one day be exposed when Gary Larson's humor becomes our metaphor. His depiction was of two tattered-clad desert wanderers. They happen upon a last gasp chance of life-giving oasis, and instead of saving themselves ... the one brink-of-death turns his head to the other so to gripe, "What? No cups!" We are egregious as a species while celebrating our conceits ( but I certainly wouldn't want to live my life out as a lab-rat). The options for Humanity are twice: A lot of perceived hardships will permeate the pan-dimensional reality of the Global future. Stress factors will reach criticality, breaching duress thresholds ( list of consequences? pick a dystopian novel; it is probably outlined). Like a slower moving apocalypse, environmental break-downs inopportunely add 'or-else' actionable factors with the remorseless timing of lobbing on-fire tennis balls at a one-armed juggler. Pandemics, to failures of macro-agriculture, to perhaps even f'ing up the oceanic phytoplankton C02- O2 cycle ( that accounts for almost 1/2 the oxygen that aerobic organism need to live) - shit! something like that? It'd really put the coup de grace on the "...We are losing" sentiments of Secretary-General António Guterres. This stuff will all have to be compensated before the words "... We can win" can be objectively determined as actually taking place. Yeah, the apocalypse is slow moving, but moving still too fast for our state of planetary controls to adapt in any kind of inconsequential way. Ameliorating the quality of life will come down to altering attitudes of acceptance --> expectations and knowing at a personal dimension 'why this is real and what it will take to fix.' Think, "Acceptance shall set you free." Perhaps it will be slow enough, lobbing impact into the juggling act in a more mollycoddling sequences of onsets -i.e., not overlapping - giving us time to manifest technologies capable of super-charging our salvation engine in this race. Technology got us into this mess - it might even be poetic that we are now enslave to it. There's you dystopian sci-fi novel right there, prequel to the "A.I. Wars," when humanity had no choice but to cede control. - or - Die. Keep in mind, much of this bleak outlook isn't meant to merely gaslight or excoriate ( which somehow got so baked into the anathema over Climate Change, such that whenever anyone hears climate and change in the same sentence there is this antithetic knee jerk reaction based upon fake-science, utilizing any plausibly deniable rationalization that can be imagined). What was pretty elaborately outlined in the damning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports as of late, like that lobbied very recently by Guterras et al, that is based on "at present" response modes Pick. Either deal with it by expediting the acceptance of unavoidable challenges with commitment and proactive resolve as though we were like, OMG, an "adult species" ...Or, completing the metaphor, eschewing responsibility because we'd rather speed dad's sports car while drinking ... and well. There isn't any cushy way out of this. In order for the above 'lesser of two evils' to succeed is going to come down to also navigating the problem of momentum - and momentum in this context has different forces. One form of momentum is: it took 120 years to get western civilities up to speed in a quasi-cooperative and intrinsic codependent life-procurement model, one that is entirely slaved to fossil fuel sequestration that is full spectrum purely provisional, ranging to quality of life socioeconomically constructed. Yet, we are no longer asking; we are informing, we have to stop that 120 years of multi-generational, multiple billion population ways and means method, doing so on top of what amounts to a temporal dime - in other words, NOW. Good luck. I have friends in the higher education/research ambit of Boston area universities, and over holiday cocktail gatherings or summer pool cookouts over the years... we've all come to agree. Global Warming's biggest solution hurdle both at present, hindsight and going forward, is sociological. The solution exists on the other side of: ( some 10% usage of fossil fuel combustion, an approximation assumed because we have technology to stop ...but + 90% sociological "obsticularity" ) / 2 Another form of momentum is in the natural domain. Just because in some magical child like dream of salvation, we could ever wake up tomorrow and completely arrest all fossil fuel burning, along with any other green-house emission loading, world over, the damage would take decades to correct. Recent ocean science has determined that such a fantasy stop would NOT stop the oceans from rising several feet, first. Detrimental environmental impacts have been set into motion, and they don't stop dynamics just because we immediate remove the stimulus that set them into motion. Large natural systems behave by Newtons First law, just like a small object does: they remain in motion until a force of sufficient momentum imposes change. In that sense ... they slow down but don't stop on a dime. That mathematics requires the obvious result of needing to impose corrective measures that are faster than the 120 years it took to get us to this point - as the immediate startling first run through of that arithmetic. Can humans do that? nope. We are not a K1 Civility - or one capable of controlling and or harnessing planetary systems. They should have an F-scale, or ability to f*ck one up, because we're definitely a 10 on that one... Even if so, probably what emerges in the much longer vision is some new paradigm. The original state? lost, never really able to return to the virgin characteristic. Complexity tucks the history of crimes and times into its sort of "ecological/geological fractals," almost like receding into a recessive trait. You just hope the new version is one favorable for whatever goal one needs - in our case, life. These two different momentum curves positively re-enforce one another - obviously. The first ... makes the f*ing 2nd one happen! The IPCC report was a grim one, and it is correct. And the specter of it ...really is too large and too dystopian to really even comprehend in a lot of ways.

Wednesday could be an at Defcon 1 perfect afternoon if these 12Z NAM number play out...

It reminds me of that trope often seen in Sci Fi cinema ...where some invading force or other dystopian finality is thematically arcing over the horizon of the story-line. Meanwhile toes are curling under the audience seats of the movie theater over just how oblivious the moguls are to the fact that they really have no power against this adversary. The recent adaptation ( and unfortunate annihilation of - ) "The Day The Earth Stood Still" science fiction story hit upon that motif big-time. ... while those in and of power-conceit are busy making plans in presumptive control - egregiously unaware - basically wasting time they don't have. Recently we wrote of needing 10 miles to turn a fully-loaded ocean Tanker around, and only having about 2 miles left to do so, with regard to the climate crisis that is real, but is ubiquitously thought of as something less. It's funny... ancient mariners would be so terrified of sailing too far and falling off the edge of the world - even threatening to hang their captains from yard-arms should they not heed and turn back... In a creepy way, that's what happens in the completion of the former metaphor - said Tanker doesn't turn around in time. Lol ..for fun, whether that theme or any others ...it's usually some all-along ostracized scientist that holds the secret Achilles Heal countermeasure to save the world. Here's how that films starts... Fade in: tepid tension in the room, pitting an appointed boob scientist facing an actual crisis ( oops) trying to sound informed though through a well-acted comportment of subtle insecurity in self-awareness. Side's what little this person offers tends to be suppressed by Brass pomp and circumstance in the room. There's another character in the room that's modestly foreshadowed in a close up expression of angst. It all fades to the sound of gravel crunching under tires as a black sedan, polished to a mirror glare, seems out of place when the partially obscuring dust plumes around it's wheel-wells as they tire comes to a halt. I would say two "MIBs" rise out of door, but isn't that now outmoded? the trope its self is changing. We need a more "Millennialized" zeitgeisty type. So perhaps not a sedan but something more styled. Clad in more business casual, with hints of being good looking somewhere under glasses telescoped out of wavy hair either side of modest chiseled sinews, maybe even make it a Rachael Leigh Cook (obscure) in "She's All That" . set up romantic tension; may as well get that out of the way early. Of course, that doesn't work out. This more hip hybrid insider ( of both the conservative rank-and-file as well as the realm of science that deeply eschews the direction of Humanity ) rides the ethical edge between those worlds. Yet, they are the only one who knows or suspects this someone with all the answers. He or she stands looking at the facade of a secluded ranch home. His/her target is the would-be hero of our un-unique story. Having lost their motivation: their intellect stolen; their soul mate also took a different road long ago due to some back-storied attractive narcissist's grander pop appeal - because obviously...they never connected with the would-be hero's intrinsic value - we all instantly sympathize. "I"m out. I gave all that "insight" away - don't you understand futility. The stars die. It doesn't matter how - that is only a human conception: tragedy ... " Anyway, back in the here-and-now.. I have long mused the metaphor where I liken all humanity, from the depths of follies to the exults of celebration, and all senses that construct the reality our existence, it all carries-on with it ... not knowing we are already dead, while suspending x-y-z or putting off a-b-c. Standing around upon the proverbial railroad tracks to destiny, while the iron beneath their feat begins to whir, and no one hears it or feels the vibration awhile they argue about the color shoes being worn to the engagement.

Interesting for climate implication seeking-nerds and scientists ( which can be mutually exclusive characterizations ), perhaps. For weather and/or natural phenomenon -related drama junkies? no so much. wandering thought: Which, part of that psycho-babble form of angst is withdraw syndrome from lacking 'event exposure' too. I mean, modernity "cinemizes" everything now. I mean if there's nothing going on, CNN almost stops shy of "Onionizing" their delivery clawing and scraping for reasons to headline. Which doesn't help. Meanwhile, the events themselves also have been more extreme, with enough increased frequency in recent decade(s) that everyone now thinks that Category 5 blizzards of 9 on the Richter scale earthquaking Carrington Event Super Volcano deep field celestial death life sterilizing CRB radiation blasts better be part of the daily sitcom or we start rattling our cages ... Lol.. in that sense there's not much scheduled to be on T.V. for the next week, no.

It's interesting that with hydrostatic heights down beneath 570 dam, and 900 mb tempertures of 0C over ALB/Logan overnight tonight, we may not frost because of one synoptic metric: wind. DPs are 34 to 40 in the area ...so, that's not helping. I mean if this were a 24 F DP air mass the radiative potential might force decoupling ( cold accumulation) and lift the wind up ...blah blah there you go. But with 15 to 20 mph sustained middle BL flow, and DPs staying in the mid 30s ... probably is 39 F type low for most. Guess we can't rule out a valley collecting enough chill and calming out for a couple hours, duh. But by and large, we nearly miss a more widespread lawn glower dawn tomorrow morning it would seem.

Today is the first day of autumn... It may not last the duration, and probably can't with the new climate paradigm no one admits exists of wild extreme autumns ranging from snow chances to 79er air masses. But somewhere in that din of hysteria weather types, ..there necessarily are days like today to symbolize the change .

I recommend “Arctic Drift” GBH

I warned you you didn’t take it seriously ? I said we’d likely diurnal destruct CAA clouds. Ah well

It's almost comical how y'all seemed to evade the main central thesis of jbenedet's post, focusing instead on subsidiary aspect of growing season. He didn't make it any easier by choosing to engage therein ... but, the interesting and overwhelmingly more meaningful aspect he's brought to light, regarding the transition season -NAO increased tendencies, really 'should be' the focus there. Which, by the way ... I have been hammering that observation for 5 years now myself - just sayn'. I think it has to do with subtle velocity surpluses with early and later jet materialization around the hemisphere - associate with Scott's favorite topic, Hadley Cell expansion. Because the amorphous/gradient rich boundary where that aspect of the greater Walker circulation terminates into the westerlies, is pushing N, it is causing these earlier/later R-wave responses. It's probably not a coincidence that the HC expansion, that is being quotable around the ambit of greater sciences, is routinely noting that the HC-e is more evidenced in the transition seasons - I suspect it is a matter of time before that link is made between it, and these unusual early(late) shared polar domain spaces like the lower WPO-EPO-NAO axis. This doesn't effect the AO directly - most likely.

I'm not sure what the significance of this may be ... how situational/conditional it is, just to this season, but that is a big difference in a single year to year/by date comparison of sea ice coverage. The SSTs of the expose Beaufort Sea are naturally very cold, even in the summer... so it is "conditionally" set up for rapid re-freeze. But in order to do so, still requires the pattern in the air-ocean coupled environment to support the phase transition to ice. Obviously there are a lot of textured complexities in the total manifold of forcing mechanisms ... some that included Time as a function ... Comparing one season to the next is risky. But that's a huge difference there between these years. Eye-ballin', larger than TX

I know and the writing was on the wall on that one. I had this imagined scene of fans kinda turnin heads back and forth at each other, collectively thinking 'Uhmm is this gonna end wall?' - but they knew. You could just feel the energy in the stadium of that sauce before it sprayed, right through the TV. Baseball is like that. It's the most prescient sport there is

Holy salami sauce!

boom it's a ribbon -

Just based on experience this feels like a ribbon-echo squall thing today. Low lightning producing, mid altitude tops sending out .33" in 5 minute gray air rains. Flicker of lightning is down the line but most just get the pulsed tree tilter wind and rain froth. Good to catch-up de-leafing to climo. Maybe singling out who doesn't get to watch the ALCS because a rancid oak's laying 'cross their neighborhood's trunk line.

The air mass arriving post fropa this evening...particularly when it nadirs later Monday would be a candidate but ... the advection terms might offset that. It's close to being able to decouple with the longer nights now. Anywhere that does likely frosts early Tuesday a.m., but I don't think it is pervasive. lots of 37s with leaf stripping breezes overnight would keep that from happening. Could be a partial car-topper out around Orange, Ma. I think you need to prepare for an upper 40s at 1200', to just mid or upper 50s interior lower els and the coastal plain Tuesday, though. Probably some whisking self-destruction CAA clouds too. Chilly enough for jackets... modestly below normal, and by lax acclimation it will be feel that way. It rolls out quickly mid week. Euro has a solid two day stint back toward the upper 60s almost immediately beginning late Wed afternoon - which I wonder if that's too fast.. In fact, the 850 would support 74 Thursday, but unlike recently... that doesn't last. After that gets interesting.

Looks like seasonally oscillatory to me... Not that anyone asked, looks normal autumn cool backs followed by tepid sun mild ups. I think the hints of a siggy coastal in the last week of the month has some mass-field identity ( progs ) and may be legit in general - save any details.

No that busted - good call there...

Lol, ...or, "Once upon a time, we lived transiently after"

Sort of both ... Use the tropopause: it is the amoprhous transition between the upper troposphere, and the entry into the stratosphere. The height of that level varies between the Equator and the polar regions of the planet: taller south, lower north. From that basic principle, adding warmth to a warming world should do what? It should raise heights: might leap out as an immediately testable conclusion. What to look for in any such "test" - calculate the height of the ambient tropopause at a given latitude, then, compare it to the height of the tropopause at that latitude along a decadal time span. I bet money ... the height of the tropopause has been elevating slowly as the HC has been expanding N and the various Global circulation "machinery" is beginning to more permanently homogenize that thermal input into the Ferrel latitudes. But here is the thing. That warming is only partially homogeneous - there are colder feedback mechanisms ( although they are breaking down ...scary enough) at very high latitudes. That's sort of quasi-protects those regions. That, and, ...because they were starting at at such a low scalar pre-CC state, they have a lot of recovery room before the Equator and N/S Poles return to a pre-CC gradient. When that pre-CC gradient state is ever re-achieved, that means stress/break-point has "clicked" into a the warmer level ... (so to speak). Or perhaps the killer threshold that is mused and hinted in the general ambit. Speculation at that point that is beyond the speculation ...haha. No, but I do think/wonder if the increasing propensity to see these early warm anomalies in the lower PV circumvallate in recent autumns are really just the recent warming - in general - finally encroaching into those latitudes. As far as the latter question, it may by trapping aerosol particulates ...probably because the PV wind band is on average strengthening. That increasing velocity supplies a general lowering internally by large integral mechanics.. That can all happen well inside the stratospheric region of the PV domain, and be a separate phenomenon to what is being discussed above - which is really a smeared PV boundary argument.

Maybe in that sense ..research needs to define SSW-alpha and SSW-beta ... SSW- we-be-f*cked variants.

Bingo! That propagation/'down-welling' mass displacement is left out of this stuff, waaaay too often. So often, I don't believe a lot of these sources really have read or researched the science involved in the total circuitry of events of SSWs that correlate suggestively in forcing AO mode change. Merely warming the stratosphere reads like --> -AO, from them. That's not entirely statistically demonstrated. SO, when statements then evince that thought process, it begs the impression of false-frontiers ...like, "look at my special insight." Our field of meteorology ...I have come to find over the years, is a collection pool for that form of narcissism - while the real deal minds are not even posting, or, are posting because they have no lives. weird - Where are all a the Astrophysicists launching drive-by social media statement-bombs and then walking away in awe ? lol Cynicism/droll aside, ( sorry ..it's frustrating for a nerd to have to constantly field that) , it does just comes off as having really either a glossy impressions or knowledge, or self-promotion. What I am about to say is hypothesis, and may be wrong - so as not to be couched in that same irresponsible antic ... These warming product depictions, I wonder if they are a by-product of climate change, where finally warming has began more frequently observably pushing into the mid and upper troposphere invading/bleeding thermally into those altitudes/latitudes. We saw something suspiciously similar to this last year, too.. And what made it particularly difficult was that we did have an SSW, but it was late in the season.. And since the more non-propagated general form of warming took place early on ...this obscured the difference between which was which. The AO spent time both negative and positive during the warmth earlier in the winter, too - I think it's really more indicative of CC showing up in that specific niche, simply put.

Yeah I recommend if one wonders over a wild crop of them ..they should immediately and enthusiastically masticate them without any blue testing first. Mm...yummy. And the delicious ensuing biliary foaming 'ill make caster-oil reduction seem like soothing cup of warm cocoa.

I wonder if this new user is a writer doing research ... ( risking inflating egos by merely asking lol) Go into a domain that's essentially a crisscrossing of societal sentiment tracks like grand central "statements" ...then write a noir novel in the 'worse city' imaginable, painted in the colors of sensible weather doom from the pallet here. Maybe even lifting some turns of phrases ( "borrowed" ) when cobbling of their own smithing. Just staring in a moment of lax responsibility, thumb rubbing the handle of my coffee mug, when the oddity struck me in a transients of irrelevant curiosity. I mean, one joins a social media and the very first introduction is no introduction at all - it's an information fishing really. Doesn't mean it's "fishy" either. But no, 'long lurker first time poster,' or 'hey guys, just joined so sorry for the newb question.' Pick the intro cliche'. Straight to the gathering of information, "What city has the worst weather," perhaps only cloaked as just another weather-centric S.A.D. case. Loaded question designed to evoke honest longer winded sentiments that ultimately foster ideas in the researcher. This is actually not an unheard of practice. Lots of leading questions that are innocuously innocent get placed in Facebook (for example) timelines by people that have friended you, yet like so many of us..we have collected along the way these people we really have less idea who they really are, or how in the hell they ended up in our friend catalogue. And these inquests are often vaporous like that - 'What is the most remote, far away land of longing you can imagine being left to think of home...home home.." And they are innocent ... I mean, compared to using hate and fake news divisively, what's the harm in merely cratering a moment of one's mood? But if it is a research bid, ...merely masquerading as commiseration-seeking, do we get social engineering credits in the back-cover their best seller? haha

Reiterating… In 2011 we had a week like this in early to mid October and then we snowed at the end of the month - that’s not an analog to this year per se or anything but it does at least exemplify how it’s not unprecedented; and obviously snowing in October has definitely become that way

I don’t have a problem with snow in the last week of October or the first week of November… How we get that done/detail is obviously negotiable from this time range - but I’ve been telling you guys for over a week that the longer range Teleconnectors have been flagging colder synoptic turn for the eastern continent.