Typhoon Tip

...heh, like this -NAO is attempting to do, albeit nuanced -

You guys are spoiled oct is not really a climo snow month in any perception, anecdotal or rational measure … when expanding back to 1980. … I don’t know if the last 15 years is quite yet enough to “count on“ snow and I certainly wouldn’t call it seasonal to have snow in October. Nov is only half over

Not a bad hypothesis... I think also the fact that at D4 ( 96 hours off 12z. ..) we can see the initial -NAO is pretty east based over that Islandic limb/region of the domain? Then, as the +PNA loads the trough east, there is height response over the western limb, and that more than less triggers the retrograde of the NAO blocking to reposition west by D8 or so... Across the differentiating span of time, that's kind of going with your suggestion there - I mentioned earlier, some of this forcing is emergent ... - and things materialize differently "if"/when that gets sampled

that's why I said at the bottom, "12z individual runs.." ?

It really is almost comical looking at this operational 12z Euro ... timing just has to be that much off. I mean I know some of you don't take this stuff very seriously or ... believe it's even true in some cases, but these Tend to cause these ... *NOT* that busted ravioli the 12z individual runs seemingly are parameterized, before they even run, to on-purpose ... f*ck up potential. Amazing the proficiency in which they execute nothing. LOL Yeah, such is the way though. It'd be funny if this come around to a more meaningful ordeal ...

It's strange ... the problem is, a -NAO drills storm track ( climate ) south through the Mid Atlantic; +NAOs are more indicative of cutters and storms going up that way/St L Seaway etc.. This? We have a strong trough ejecting through the west during at least a transient, +PNA that is in the process of materializing. That lends to some uncertainty as to how much "positive feedback" said trough might or might not get enhanced by superposition ...etc..- so there's that. But, the earlier cutter happens just before the big -NAO plunge. So, the track climo suggestion is a splitting in two across the temporal span. At the start of the period there is tendency for Lakes cutter tracks, that then fades...over the course, the opposite emerges. It's like the models are executing both plans. Very interesting for dorks with free-time I suppose..but in practical senses it's not clear to me ( anyway ...) how that latter amplitude will behave and what it will mean. I've been chiming the last couple of days not to toss that as a possible "fun" ( depending on one's point of view ) player, because these uncertainties above, deny the pragmatics of auto-dissing ... a tact that the psychosis of this engagements seems so uniquely willing to take...

Despite the many turns of phrases ...and the protracted philosophies in excoriation, cynicism of outlook and visions of destruction that ranged into excessive lengths and thread hijacking - ha... It all boils down to, 'where there's a will, there's a way' Which concomitantly means, there's been less will to date. Things are changing ... if too slowly, okay - but there is momentum gathering in the right direction. What do we expect ...with 7.5 billion human beings, not hailing from the same perspectives on matters, ... blah blah blah, we've hammered it enough - there is a race of sorts: does the momentum gather in time -

Uh...yeeah. Best advice? In this particular next 6 or so days, do not take any operational rendition too seriously. Not with that giant non-lineary, back-loading wave exertion in the flow. It's materializing - not already materialized . ( not you per se ... for the general run-to-run enthusiast that may run reactionary tendency. heh) But that order of operation means that event next week ...even the one after it perhaps nearing the 28th-30th .. are way way way open to interpretation and future error. Pointing out the obvious ... NAOs are notoriously poorly handled in both amplitude and spatial dimensions -...and also in time, too. We can say with far more confidence what the mode tendencies ( tho not absolute confidence ) will be. Not as much for how strong, definitely not where it will bias/anchor. It's a scatter-plot affair. No one asked me, but ... the GEFs telecon spread overnight is a robust Archembault signal...still, *but* as we know ...signals can at time come and go and sometimes don't cash in. Thing is, there is an interpretation bias there...because a big cyclone could evolve for all this ... not hit here, and people think the signal failed. WRONG. Strawman, ... perhaps you didn't get the memo but the weather is not here to entertain you specifically ... sometimes you get invited to the VIP lounge. Sometimes you don't. But the party still happens(ed) whether you are getting the lap-dances. There may be a large gyre stalling too far NE ... sure. Signal satisfied. That other poster ( can't recall whom) noted, the 'polish' of the overnight runs did come into an apparent better coherence/concerted appeal there. Agreed. If perhaps 'nuanced' in operational runs ( frankly, the Euro looks wrong to me but I may be wrong too - ha). But that GEFs cluster features now a very heavily multi-member curve-superposition there, with -2.5 SD NAO plunge ( again, where may be the biggest hurdle to determinism...). While also, the PNA membership is more coalesced around a total two SD change, from -1 to +1 ... That's a lot. And my hunch is the operational GFS and the cross-guidance look of the Euro, are both flatter than that teleconnector - ...just adds to the uncertainty. Anyway, live by the GEFs ...die by the GEFs I suppose. Same holds true for the EPS too.. I do sense though 'weight' is given to the Euro cluster. I can't say I blame folks for doing so... based on the last 20 years of technology, no. But, mmm... I think huge NAO mode change like that, considering the nature of the beast ..., may or may not manifest in guidance.

Ha ...funny 'acclimation relativity' perspective in play here - I mean, you step out side in this on July 10 and you're going, " f*ck this man" and grabbing a jacket.

N/A has exhibited a warming but also offsets that have been asynchronous with the Global signal ... with cold loading specifics off the NE Pac circulation mode that is favoring mid latitudes over the continent; it is 'intuitive' to see why those regions 'might' have a cool bias relative to the whole planet.. Not sure what the total conversation facet was that led to the above exchange - or if these counterpoints were taken out of a bigger context... etc. But, I have noted in the past that since 2000 and looking at the monthly publications from NASA et al and climate watch, N/A cool pools relative to the whole have occurred some 2/3rds of the months - it's probably related to that ... interesting -

Heh... I wouldn't dismiss that next week... This you have to understand, the evolution of that is after a pattern change- in fact, happens as a result of it. A PNA switching modes with/while a falling NAO means that, whether the operational runs really want to get with the program and paint pretty pictures or not. In effect, ... it's like trying to see what is on the other side of the wall - it's a system that has to emerge as much as be tracked, and that former aspect doesn't lend to even seeing it very well. This strikes me as a 'medium' opportunity for nearer term reassertion ... I'd keep it on the back burner. You flip modes ... you flip out .. usually. I mean not always - can certainly move through the sequencing and not coalesce something to follow. It happens, but its far too early to assess that as happening.

as of last night's EPS/GEFies, they signal lower Greenland as the -NAO apex. But, 3 days ago it was more westerly oriented, while since then I have also seen it more east toward Iceland. Matters for whatever gets sent east from out west, and encounters any exertion from the NAO. Faster than normal flow, alters the standard model for how the NAO blocking 'exerts a backward force' in the field, too. The NAO modes really are described by the non-linear wave function transmitted downstream out of the momentum/dispersion of the Pacific Rossby signal. Good luck anyone understanding what that means... But, the Pacific is relaying a flattish +PNA expression; that changes the landscape . I still suggest a flatter wave - albeit still of potency - gets ejected. The speed in the flow doesn't lend to steeply plumbed meridian structures. The general stochastic/bad performance in handling NAO to begin with. I agree with Will - it's not likely just some operational canard. The reason is, there is a timed lag/distribution argument in the statistics that proceed -NAO's ... It is varied by the +PNA "resonance," based on wave spacing and amplitude from Tokyo to Boston really. I saw someone's snark there but ... I do wonder if in 1950, that 06z GFS NAO -related Rex structure isn't en mass situated S by 10 latitude. I'm not skeptical of there being a storm. The mass field/synoptic restoring system resulting is going to be hard to escape from happening... whether it is stuff of dreams or something uninspired is 'nother tail.

Egh .. negative interference pattern at large scales - that's what that is... yuck. It's likely to change but as is ..

I would not be surprised if the D7-9 amplitude model-morphs narrower in a N-S range, shaving some ( how much or how little..) amplitude as it does.. I have valid reasons for thinking so, one being trend consistency. The models - et al - have been doing that for years. The other reason: +PNA teleconnection is high confidence, true. Every GEF member, and the EPS synoptic means, both methods flag that advent over the next 2 weeks. *BUT* flat in nature as Will surmised last week. Flat lends to 'stretched' synoptics That said, it is a mode change from about -1 to +1, signaling a' restoring event' will likely transpire (Archembault) - how ever huge or pedestrian, aside. The other interesting aspect is that a strong -NAO teleconnection forecast has emerged over the last couple of days, for that same time range. The operational Euro is all over the place. It's had a west limb, east limb, .. now as of 0z it has a kind of SE domain space bias. Of all places effected by NAOs ... New England is one that is uniquely a problem for this particular case. I don't think any model is really uniquely qualified as a better NAO handler, either. In all .. this combination of telecon spread after any November 15, *after* an antecedent quasi -EPO cold loading, should storm. Where and how, and how much? we'll see

It's not worth discussing deterministic impacts - ...for the multi-syllabic challenged, that means no use even guessing specifics affects, It's really a place holder for the time being. It's the same signal we've been monitoring for the past week, but is still unfortunately too deep in the extended to start taking form. That rendition above is typical of this range in autumn ...where the models lobe the warm over top, and then eventually seclude warmth - it almost looks like a hybrid storm in that pressure layout - like what happened in 1991 when the core went caney

Definitely some ominous looking characters in that 12z GEF member line-up ...

Not a bad take, but it's not a matter of "weather" dangerous hot and cold extremes get reported. It is necessarily ( or should be ) whether these are deemed a threat, nothing else. I have ideas why they have not been added to the headline list, generations ago. Firstly, it doesn't appear to me, as I've read historical accounts and come by way of annuls ..et al, there really was much limitation on awareness going all the way back through history - there are in fact vivid accounts of both hot and cold impacts upon civility, from monetary to life, dating back many generations. To your thinking: 'Available observation and report' - yes ... tech evolution has engulfed us in a vastly advantaged awareness compared to say 100 years ago. And, it is true, awareness does feed-back on policy. Of course. But, the deadly heat waves and cold waves of yore, are in the yore - that means there was awareness, regardless - My longer "hot take" : The problem was originally due to the human condition of threats tending to belay, if not failing to elicit responses, unless they more dramatically appeal to the corporeal senses. Otherwise, they are deemed less urgent, thus ...not prioritized as such. It's really a biological distinction. We can't tell a horse to run away from a wild fire. But, if they see the orange plasma dancing along the distant line they perhaps instinctively turn and high-tale it. We hope humans are smarter than horses ... despite so many frustrating evidences .. But unfortunately, there is proportional response triggering mechanism that exists in us in simulacrum. Not to get into a protracted digression on the matter ...but it is one of the major proponents in this whole Climate Change denial - which, a goodly part of that moral failure is not because we are bad people. Some? sure... You have sociopaths and deviants and crack pots in any population. But really, the above human condition strands the majority in stasis of looking around, and that gets in the way of proactive "heedance." It is and was always normal to question, and the evolved circumstance of nature's built in biological observation --> trigger circuitry being reliant on seeing the "orange plasma," that lends to a convenience to disagree. 40% of the world's 7 1/2 billion brains need that biological trigger of seeing - seeing is believing. Now, the seeing is changing ... as desiccated regions, wild fires, rising ocean, and synergistic heat waves are becoming pronounced enough, begins to appeal. But, I sometimes wonder if the 'edginess' of human intelligence is not evently distributed, where some are either natively or circumstantially advantageous. They may be better equipped to perceive threats based upon higher order intelligentsia, and not having to wait upon hearing the report of the rifle fire - which if you follow this metaphor, usually by the time one hears that report, the bullet had already arrived - ooh. We are taught since very little that observation is needed to corroborate interpretation of reality - thus, we know it is truly real. So that "40%" above ... can you see or sense that paradox? In the case of our horse above, they are in fact not doing anything until the "see" that reality - it's the same mechanics. What we do to sophisticate that kind of processing as humans, is more polish done in the higher order intelligence framework that horses simply do not posses - but it is rooted in the same. You know it's interesting to me ... I have expounded upon the following to Liberty' and Rclab et al, about this catch-22 aspect of humans extraordinary evolutionary leap. One that I believe is still occurring actually, for better or worse aside - verdict definitely still out on that one. But.. the gist of it is, humanity evolved the capacity for ingenuity, which really spans the spectrum of innovation to analytic problem solving. That incredible advent in Earth biologic history was not proportionally evolving any necessary means to connect with it. That creates a kind of gap problem there, one that may fill with tragedy ...as we arbor our way to our own extinction for ( perhaps ...) suffering an imbalance between vision, and willingness/instinct/ability to abide those warnings. But anyway, until recently, one could not see or feel Globe warming, not when the "alarm" was the sound of mere decimal-integrated increases from one year to the next. Back on the original subject ..heh! Prior generations would naturally perceive a stove piped tornadic specter twisting through a neighborhood like an errant egg-beater as requiring a certain import, before considering 102/74 as dangerous. But set that in statically for 5 days, might take the same toll on health and wellness but its just not triggering.. Slower moving, invisible killer. Have you ever heard of the medical mantra about 'Hypertension is the silent killer' ? It's like that... The Earth in Climate crisis is like an Earth with Hypertension - and the metaphor couldn't be more apropos when considering the both Hypertension and the Climate crisis, are dealing with elevated numbers. Anyway, the headline list is really an old school short-sighted aspect that got institutionalized is all, and it's stupid to be blunt.

Operational runs struggling with potential out that far for two reason: One the range ... duh.. But compounding that, massive pattern mode shift/implication - operational versions clearly struggling to hide immensely overloading potential. A little fun by saying it that way, but I do feel as Will and I have been advertising for days, that 18th thru 24th ( likely biased in the latter days of that range ) is bright via multiple disciplinary methods for assessing longer lead threats. This run of the Euro has little hope of evolving as is, but given to the multi day, multi mass field modality, as well as a bit of cross guidance support only helping ( sig -EPO collapsing into a +PNA ), .. in all, the run underscores the inherent volatility. ...something quite significant lurks, above the base climate signal. It's a Archembault restoration event ... It's going to get cold folks, and the baroclinic canvas in the EPS and GEFs in that 20 to 25th is really quite fantastic.. Highly volatile.

It's almost like Northern New England cheats photographic competition - like slipping into the marathon at mile 24. By shear value of everywhere one looks, to those unfamiliar are arrested by what takes anyone and everywhere else in the U.S. ... extensive planning in prep, cam tech, just to get a chance to accidentally capture the same aesthetic. I mean, Ansel Adams would snap off a thousand photos before capturing that perfect instant of synergy, where sight and light combined in a fleeting instant, to expose the suggestion of a hidden divinity to nature - if lucky, goes to to print. NNE? meh. Lol. The local denizen mill about and carry on in their lives under nature's frescoes. In every direction one is addled by an eye-candy house of mirrors. Probably? - they are quite bored with it. "Yeah yeah..." It wouldn't shock me if that was the case. I mean... I was an impressionable wide-eyed lad when I moved from Michigan to the Cape Ann way back in the day. Yes ...Kalamazoo Michigan, with its industrially vacated half-size Worcester metropolis serving as an attractive rest stop along the booming Chicago Detroit drug and gang trade route, what a charming island it was ... set out amidst cow-shit and corn silos. Welcome to early 1980s southern Michigan. Truly riveting everyday expose's of natural visual arts, no doubt! What had first stunned me, with rocky headland vistas over taking the vast expanse of the stormy seas .. it was indescribable. A year later? Tourists coming to town to take in the same awe-inspiring settings and expose's couldn't shut up about sooner. Ugh.

I'd wonder, if not caution even ... As the whole-scale gradients ( the N hemisphere - ) perennially steepen here over the next month, particularly nearing January, if that might exhibit at mitigating disruption on the perceived coupling. It may still couple in smaller quadratures heading deeper into January, but be limited to those regions. The problem is ... the stronger gradient wind everywhere, as a whole-scale integral, is a destructive interference - it doesn't allow those mechanics to be as instructive on the Rossby -wave geometry. This is likely why some of the other warm and cool ENSOs seemed too weakly coupled over the last 10 years - a time during in which we've seen a preponderant result of fast hemispheric flow regimes, not likely coincidence. It could very well be that we are seeing an apparent coupled state, now, while it is physically accessible - but that accessibility may break down. Just something to consider -

It's interesting to see this virtual radar rendition with that dynamic punch-through cold ptype, along the spine of the Greens like that... I was thinking this morning this situ looked like a low melt level thunderstorm potential. Sky gets dark.. wind and large drops sweep in with a hard-to-tell mix of grapple-hail. Some cat paw fat rain toward the back ends before ending... That would be more so for the >700' but it's pinging cold rain elsewhere. Also, this may bring down some wind momentum - it was looking more isallobaric pulsed a few days ago, but altho still potent, the S/W/mechanics are not quites as ominous. Still, with DVM with downdrafting those could combine for a wind threat I would think.

It does ( still ..) to me as of this morning... For the general reader: I had posted this same subject matter .. ( should have started a separate thread ), but with my proclivity to languish on too long ( ha ) .. - Twitter is killing this site's art, frankly. Anyway, I stated ( blw ) the 18-24th is a synoptic vulnerable time. Either a series or singular event of importance looks more plausible than the background climate signal - however, I can certainly see biasing toward the latter half of that chunk of days, sure. The period in question is during pattern transition; that is when we look for 'corrective' events take place along, identified by the inflection of the ensemble means/curves. Both the EPS and to some lesser ( albeit not zero order ) degree the GEFs, have are orienting the spatial layout out of 500 mb anomalies, into a -EPO/ quasi -EPO... ioa the D6-9 range. Suddenly we see operational Euro and GFS runs with D10 850 mb < -20 C plumes in Canada? Not an accident. All of which the ensemble means of both then relay that into a period of modest, albeit crucial rise in the PNA out around the 20-24th. Getting too long again.. .

18th-24th

EPO cold load into the Can Shield. It's been a recurring model -run theme now going back 2 or 3 days of Euro oper ...with other models in aggregate more than less on board> EPS: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=eps&p=500h_anom&rh=2021111200&fh=240&r=nh&dpdt=&mc= ...less impressive but loading still is the GEFS: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=500h_anom&rh=2021111200&fh=240&r=nh&dpdt=&mc= Today's warm wash with west frontal wall is typical of a pre -EPO load event. What is interesting is that this is 'too far' in advance really for that... But it still reminds of it. It's almost as though the stretched, progressive speed characteristic of the field is maybe skewing that but that's hypothesis, more suggestive than evidentiary ... Still we also juggle anticipation for muting anomalies tendency, moving deep range into mids, too - but... it appears the Pacific wants to be in the AB phase ( east of the Dateline) so that adds to the over-arcing theme as having confidence... Shades of Thanks Giving 2018 with a cold whip? it may be out there... but it's vastly too early for any clue about embedded feature(s). I still see 18 to 24th for a corrective event or series achieving that. The fast flow does lend to pearling -