Typhoon Tip

I was in Michigan for that one... I had moved back there for just that one autumn/winter to care-take my grandfather's home, for he'd taken to illness and needed palliative care back east with the rest of the family. There wasn't much impact by the storm there lol

Lol... right. wasn't there a record there like... I wanna say 7 years ago? Somewhere along the coastal region of Alaska wound up with decades in feet of snow or something hyper anomalous like that. Probably a global warming attribution study chance maybe even.. but yeah, they probably get snow-rate visibility so low that it's coming down in one's living room in those set ups.

Kinda weird maybe but ... I have a couple of bucket-list items. One is to experience a record Death Valley heat wave ... just step outside in slow-bread bake temperatures. Like Captain Kirk in space, 'something everyone should experience' heh. The other one is that Tower Minnesota thing, where a cup of boiling water throw into the air in -42 F actually explodes do to thermal expansion at saturation vapor pressure. Half the water instantly goes to gas, while the other half shards to the ground like glass falling out of a car crash, probably the fastest natural setting phase change there can be.

Well yeah that too - it only adds. Maybe positive interfering - yuck. That said, I wonder if/when the gradient of winter kicks in, if we are just going to slip back into the same scenario where the patterns don't look like ENSO signals. That's been pretty common in recent winters. You know what, it's an impossible parsing ... Whether we have a ENSO -related SE ridging vs HC tendencies to keep southern heights from seasonal suppression ( as readily ...), the two skew which is which at any given time. Longer bloviation: My personal opinion is that in the absence of any ENSO signal, the gradient is going to be something like a fixed 6 to 10 dam more sloped between JB and the GOM than 20 years ago, anyway, because of CC/ heavy science in the matter that is no refereed and cannot be denied - sorry to heavy hand that but it seems people hesitate acceptance of HC. Not you per se, but folks need to realize that HC expansion is not a subtropical ridge in that sense. One cannot identify it that way. It's a planetary integral, expressed as a lateral/latitude increase in the Walker circulation eddy, while the circulation it's self is actually weakening. The interface between the lower Ferrel Cell and the Hadley ( where the jet streams reside) is not a fixed location.. it meanders ...obviously... but that is the virtual boundary of the HC. The mean positions are north of 1950 by 4 to 9 ( as of 7 years ago ) latitude, N and S of the Eq. That is all HC expansion means - *BUT* that small number means a velocity increase everywhere because of more gradient - that effects the R-wave distribution, and among other physical impacts ... may in fact be f*ing up the correlation models of the ENSO ... Hence the vague patterning in recent winters. I mean it's like right there.

I should caboose that ... perhaps mild - relative to climate - works IMBY up in NNE still

Yeah ... I'm not sure mild will work for snow enthusiasts. Firstly, the impetus for thinking that way - if I have this correct ... - is that at our latitude/geography and climate, mild in the past was good for 10:1 type snows and that mild is more doom and gloom down Jersey way and points south. I'm not sure that is the same any more with CC/migration N ... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54771-winter-2021-2022/?do=findComment&comment=6152314 ..granted that is hypothesis and may not bear discrete analysis whatever ... but, really and truly since ...I dunno 2006 .. '08, don't feel as good about marginal situations here like I used to back in the 1990s - that's for sure.

74

Mm "institutionalized" is the condensed word for that. It can't really be one-off triggered ( boy that'd be nice... ) But we've often heard the phrase "institutional racism" ? As we all know ..blah blah institutional racism is the systemic operation [society] from a basis of racial constraints. Uh ... in more life- relevant terms, methods in the ways and means and behaviors on the streets to offices and all walks, are built-in rules based upon assumptions handed down through cultural lineage over generations - that's what it means to you and me. At individual levels ( I think ) the fact that people operate within those inherited social constructs are "unconsciously biased" in their maneuvers and decisions and thoughts, while in collection, turn the gears of communities and country. That's the nuts and bolts of the "institutional racism" motif - even though the individual persons may in fact not harbor any overtly obvious hatred or distrust based upon diversity. It's really "institutional acceptance and tradition" that is the better euphemism and is paramount. People really only know what they were raised to know (bear with me - there relevancy to this...) In the moment? There are douce-bag humans that should drop dead - agreed. But the majority, I don't think so. They'd be happy to have a diversity to dinner. Sit next to them in church. Play on sports teams with them. Share the international space station. Collaborate on projects. Just be friends and lovers. That's not racism. However, by convention further above they are unwittingly complicit. They turn the gears of society using the levers handed down to them, so they are oblivious conventional racists. Something of a similar phenomenon seems to be happening with this anti CC. A counter-culture developed out of an anathema about Climate Change - sort of "racist against the very science of climate change its self," based upon inherited culture motif-assumptions. Add in that there is a factor of mentally untenability, just by shear magnificence of the specter - people just really are not very well prepared to process the enormity of what climate change means --> apocalypse ... before even approaching the anthropomorphic causality. They can't do it. That takes time .. That can be certainly sped up - usually where there is more at stake, forces pragmatic changes ... adoption of ways and means. A lot of that comes back to that talking point of "...Climate change does not appeal to the corporeal senses" the same way as picking up a hot handle to an iron skillet. That stimulus teaches, 'don't do that' ... immediately. And that lesson sticks. That is a cultural force that does not change in the individual for life - usually... lol. CC does not have any such advocate. If "threat" does not (most importantly) adversely appeal to one of the natural, corporeal "USB ports that connect the human brain, and downloads reality" ( sight, sound, smell, tough and taste ), whatever the message is, is only considered. So where we've managed since the 1990s when the uh-oh era began: We completely f'ed up the climate warnings because of the "shimmering example" in diplomatic flair and acumen of the scientific ambit - we came at the above human condition with blazing excoriations in doom when - wait just a second! - according to existential awareness, this has saved relatives from cancer. Extended life in general. So vastly improved quality of life in as little as great great grandparent-ago that we'd almost seem like aliens to our own ancestors. Add that to the list of cogs in the catch-22 gears machining our doom ( I suspect... but some days my mood changes - haha). When the virtuosity and import of knowledge is held back by a stupidity dam of communicative improficiencies ... what's the f'ing use of knowing all the answers? Sorry, but a lot of a CC denial is on us; it was a defensive narrative formulated for being unconsciously threatened by the 'artless rhetoric' of the earlier messengers. Humans are emotional... That aspect is primitive [perhaps], but was always there first - the advent of higher order, emotion compensating reasoning and the ability to shed motifs in lieu of the pith of what is actually being conveyed, fails pretty quickly venturing outside of science ambit - where... the 90+% of society actually still juggles all these psychic response pathways. So CC denial may not exactly be institutional denial, no - but there is something similar to it, where is functioning on a platform of plausible deniability/ Probably because denial-solution needs a few cities to sink like Atlantis, along with a pretty significant uncontrolled population correction to crack it's foundation of lies.

It's going to be hard to parse out what is forecasting debonaire, vs what is just normal seasonal migration of the pattern/tendencies, though. Particularly as it relates to advancing, " ...just how late in November it happens..." sentiments, though. And I also wonder about GEFs and or EPS and or GEPs means way out there, too - I mean, yeah, we have years that butt-boned Novembers... We have had Novembers, however rare, that are quite amiable to winter enthusiasts. But if one looks at all Novembers since Columbus stole the America's for spice, or the Conquistador ransacked for gold while attempting to annex their brand of imperialism ... that time of the year between Nov 1 and Dec 1 - I strongly hunch - demos shedding some 20 to 30 dm in the basal state, non-hydrostatic hgt depths of the atmosphere between 160W/40 N to 50W/40 N. Which concomitantly means ... the gradient has increased --> velocities ( ambient ) have seasonally increased --> the establishment R-waves spacing --> in situ "pattern canvas" will have emerged/been exposed. That's all going to happen whether one forecasts it to, or not. So this isn't a gripe ..but more a philosophy/pragmatic question. Obviously La Nina Novembers have their climatology - but ... I also suggest the ENSO stuff is still mangled by CC, and the forcing on the global circulation machinery is still being suspect when it comes to that "macro-metric" driver.

Thermometers of the not-too-far-off future will be quantum sampling the thermal kinetic state, which won't require any of the apparatus constraints being an obvious advantage. But that advantage is like thousands of times more accurate ... on the deep, irrelevant right-side of the decimal points. These modern station sites may in fact error up to 3 degrees in particularly stressed circumstances, but are usually < 1 error... etc etc, so that sort of 'chunk' error will be recouped, but it will be capable of sub-tolerance precision. I mean, 32.00000000000001431732 still freezes water due to the uncertain principle in that realm/sense of it.. But such a quantum sampling device, ... an integration of quantum thermometers with optics/satellite detection methods, will mean when it site reads a given temperature, it is that temperature a that site - really. ... I'm hoping it is 32.00000451, when the icing tolerance is 32.000000450

Eegh... gag was hopin' that signal would fade next week but if anything, ... it appears to have become that much more coherent overnight. In fact, of those ...30 some odd members of the GEFs, now 2/3rds are on board. It's not even a -NAO so much as a REX-block that evolves 'close' to the NAO's domain, and by virtue of that proximity, ...the NAO calculations are down below 0 SD. Everywhere N-E/SE of the lower Maritime of Canada toward the D. Straight/Greenland/Iceland and S is actually rather (+) looking... The result is just a tormented misery construct, as though built deliberately for an attack against decency upon the civilities from the MA to NE. "Next week" may as well be two weeks - my god. I looked at the last 3 consecutive runs of the operational GFS' layouts, and looking at those 00z members that support ... the means ( eye-ballin') is like 7 straight days of easterly to NE hosing off the Labradorian anus tube, at a time of year the means 56/52 for 168 to 192 hours with no sun. Is that what people meant when hiding their misery behind the mantra that so long as early winter isn't reliable, I'd rather it be above normal until late November? This? this GFS/GEFs pattern strikes all intents and wants and purposes about as equilaterally as imaginably wrong, to minimize as much redemptive value as it plausibly can. No soul is spared. The Euro, ...whose performance is still bearing scrutiny due to new release ... seems to be offering a synopsis that more resembles the 1/3 of those members mentioned above, that don't support 'quite' the extremeness of agony the others are. But one aspect they all seem to favor is a general tendency for the mass of the lower troposphere to unrelentingly move from east -> west the majority of the time. Probably the blend of the whole thing argues, if one has the luxury of unused vacation time along with the wherewithal to flee to another region out side the MA-NE inhumane climate shithole, you really may want to consider a 10 day escape, ... hell, even consider the sabbatical if you can't. Sometimes toleration and sanity just requires it ...

Yeah... maybe next April 1

We also are a dysfunctional culture of raging litigates now doing möbius loops over outcomes like buzzards. Agencies charged with notification feel like in order to idiot proof their org from the siege of assholes looking to recoup money for their own lack of responsibility in matters like tors and canes and snowstorms, maybe offices are throwin hands and over calling everything. No one can sue for being less injured then warned …

NWS real-estates blizzard warnings far in a way more frequently then when we were kids - to go with that recency angle … est that newer practice began maybe ten years back I wanna say. Probably coinciding with the criteria changes most likely. Not saying that’s wrong - it’s its own discussion. But I wonder if part of poster’s liberal usage in here stems from these more recent 10 years of nearly all mere mid grade cyclones or > seem to be earning the dramatic hunters orange merit badges pinned on the weather maps. Over usage tends to depreciates to pedestrian use, in that sense … —> posters having lesser abashed filters. Anecdotally … we’ve been under a handful of blizzard warnings locally/IMBY/surrounding towns in the last 10 years that I recall where we didn’t really verify, either - lends to wondering if some of that increased NWS use/headlining is also ‘over’ use, too Anyway with the frequency I’m seeing blizzard headlines applied, regardless of their validity or reasons …, it seems if 5 cold nor’easters struck this year, raw dumb %ages based on NWS alone might mean 2 of those are apt to be “warning” events.

I have a personal perspective on how climate change seems to be manifesting amid just our little nook of the world, that I suspect may rub some the wrong way - ..well, maybe GL/SE Canada and upper MA can be thrown into to the pot. It's more to do with p-type tendencies. It's a sentiment I recall writing about a few short years ago in a post event that featured extraordinary too-long-to-read rates ... (like 7" per hour!) lol We seem to "fail winter," more prodigiously on the under performance side of a curve IF/when we don't have antecedent EPO loading patterns REALLY enabling. ...this matters. It is more than symbolically as though we need the direct input of cold supply from deeper richer sourcing, because the home grown cold is tending to not be enought as much as previous climate generations. I have at times referred to the, "flop direction" being liquid now, where marginal scenarios modeled verify decimals too warm more frequently, and/or ..they just don't have enough BL resistance typology leading our storm tracks to 'hold it in' as impenetrable as say ...1950 - 1998 ... (but the this end date is just slide-able by 10 years later... ) I almost see what is happening now/over the last 2 or so weeks, as a crude early sort of example how we need cold direct loading - just to verify cool incursions. We've bounced the PNA positive to negative, now climbing positive, while sustaining primarily -NAO phase states since late September, and just anecdotally .. I don't recall ever observing this many above normal diurnals within a realm governed by that kind of mass-field indication/telecon character... Oh I'm sure it has happened while you someone has now gon' fastidiously trying to say this happens all the time to bargain not having to face the implications of it ... lol. Just kidding, but seriously ... 2015 was direct cold loading from Kamchatka over the Alaskan arc down to Lake Erie... and all storms were talcum powder cobwebs. It seems the gap is widening, where the mid ranged ratio events are getting fewer, in lieu of either overloaded cold or tending to cold liquid as the the base-line/so to be base-line

Yeah... good insight - I was really thinking 32F but I suppose for posterity ... latest that a car topped glowed but no one or agency really has that ...least I don't think. Lol

Cold isn't the whole story... Plants need cyclic gestation, and can't do it in perpetuity like that. Even tropical plants have fruiting and dormancy intervals that oscillate. A lot of annuals that people plant for garden hobbies need more sun than tepid slope insolation and will tend to cease growth production. I mean if one wants to define the end of growing season as a hard lined 28 F ice in the bird bath morning than that's fine two.. but by and large, nothing is pragmatically growing anyway. Lawns are green, but the actual growth has slowed down around here anyway - as a direct evidence of this. So while not a hard stopped, ...it's is over for all intents and purposes

Just on an early wiener goof ... what are the latest date of a first frost records for HFD/ORH/PVD/BOS/CON/ ...ETC ?

Gosh ...I admittedly thought this one had more staying power in the model runs, too. This has been going on for years frankly ... I don't know when this started - or if frankly it is somehow CC mucking with the "technology-grid" of modeling operations et al ..etc, but routinely a cold air mass in the extended outlooks... normalizes getting to short term. Durations shrink by delay and earlier back-end roll-outs, and 850 mb scalar values start arriving less cold overall. What I try to do is match the operational "lies" with telecon spreads - but the latter isn't a snap shot application, either. The trends and their own verifications are included in that. This cool down next week had that. Didn't matter this time. Interesting... At this rate of on-going trends, that is no different than the last 2 days, which by and large failed to frost. It's an interesting thing to have a -NAO post October 15 ... challenged to frost in New England. Granted the PNA has been modestly negative but the pattern looks PNA neutral, and the progs are showing it as rising. Not sure that's much/how much of a factor

On a brighter note ... if perhaps a little less dystopian, we extend a pat on the back and positive re-enforcement [karma] https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/20/world/carbon-capture-storage-climate-iceland-intl-cmd/index.html Shockingly, that is CNN sourced. It is nothing shy of remarkable, that particular "information" depot of the greater IMC ("Industrial Media Complex"), has published an article that is not an attempt to zap the reader with fear ( to get them exposed to ad revenue ...) so as to manipulate them into an expose of ads for profit attempt. ( Honestly... the point in time in history the IMC figured out a way to convert television channel pings, mouse clicks, and thumb swipes into actual revenue, we were doomed. ) Obviously, we would need and huge constellation of those reclamation plants situated over the vast expanse of the planet, but it would be interesting if the deeper science in where and how many was determined relative to base-line circulation modes of the atmosphere. Because the complete C02 homogenization into the atmosphere begins there - I am curious how quickly source A becomes non-differentiable between x and y down stream... But also... helping to limit the reclamation of atmospheric carbon at the sources might alleviate the total cost ( "cost" in multiple facets in this context, ranging from resource to economics...etc..) by lending to efficiencies. It seems this Sci-Fi potential solution, "carbon capture facilities" ... It is for one ironic - if not fantastic on a personal note! Jesus, I just wrote an op-ed in here last week that took an imaginative step in this very subject matter. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52434-occasional-thoughts-on-climate-change/?do=findComment&comment=6139011 It's a kind of pitch-synopsis for a Science Fiction vision that among a myriad of loaded implicitly-voiced consequences, there were these so-called "CRIM" facilities cited. Weird... But in that story, 'Carbon Reclamation Impact Matrices' - perhaps kitchy first stab at a catchy acronym.. In that story, CRIM is the layout of facilities that were placed all over the planet during the desperation era of "the big dying" that sets in mid century ... Only, CRIMs employ a more advanced technology than merely re-sequestration. What they do is use the recent research ( albeit hugely more sophisticated by virtue of looking/anticipating forward by decades ..) a recent discovery of using combinations of metals to use actual C02 to create energy - so it is coupled advantage of supplying energy to a glutty species, while simultaneously cleaning the diapers of the same species ... interesting. But it engenders consequence...and the rest of the 'Pendulum Ice Age' follows... etc. The other aspect, how much energy does it take to run the contraptions? It would be a complete gain in the war on anthropomorphic -forced climate change if that energy came from entirely renewable sources - the article above focuses on Iceland's geological advantage of using the Earth's interior ( virtual ...) limitless source - so for that one facility, that is true. But one facility, "... about 10 metric tons of CO2 every day, which is roughly the the same amount of carbon emitted by 800 cars a day in the US. It's also about the same amount of carbon 500 trees could soak up in a year...." would need to be scaled up to service a planet. And, notwithstanding .. the technology itself may have room to advancement/sophistication ...The future could certainly evolve more proficiently - 'costing lest energy in, in order to get the same or better cleaning goal numbers out.' Engineering is never a final result... You know you are onto an interesting Sci-Fi premise, though ... when you advance a synopsis, then reality emerges on the other side of that vision that plays a direct homage to the original idea. Maybe these metal/CO2 processing energy plants could be integrated into the ORCA facilities, and there you go -

You say this on the night before a 3 days stint of 70+ lol... I know what you mean tho. I find it interesting that we have so much pronounced -NAO and it's having so limited impact on the temperature anomalies. -or - it is having a huge impact, ...like, if it wasn't for there influencing, we'd be 80. Not sure which is which... But one thing is for sure, up there over the NE Pac/Alaskan sector ...the + or quasi +EPO is a circulation type that blunts cold loading int the Canadian shield. It may be the difference between this year and last year's latter October. Both feature(will) negative NAOs, but one can and one can't relay any cold south because that key source is cut off this time. Of course last year we rebounded in November pretty wildly with a week of 75+ but that's a different bridge -

god ...how long does one have to lock down there to win approval of a father in law lol... seriously, you're missing an epic baseball novel

Yeah all that ...and there's probably a textured storm of factors. I mean, I keep seeing these articles citing societal -scaled burnout of/for "menial" ( some interpretives there ...) -relate job and acquisition thereof, now that 'employment fear' has begun to subside in the early onset post Pandemia ... blah blah blah .. Somewhere in there, they drop a quick turn of phrase that side-car mentions this is most coherent in retail and health sectors - I'm like, "well duh you turkeys! who the f! wants to work in an environment that is a Petri dish for pan-systemic epidemiology concerns now or ever?!" Seems pretty straight forward. But - I dunno - maybe some of that carries over into the logistics areas, too. I was just reading one of CNN's typical fear-pimped articles this morning about the cargo and freight back logs at shipping ports. It's like a sea of those snap fit ocean-liner to freight train and semi truck containers, stacked over a 1000 acre depot ... apparently full of Christmas shopper visions of sugar plumbs and fairies. In other words, this is probably a problem that is more textured than just retail and health, or trucking and delivery ... I almost think it is partly - and this is admittedly biased in my own cynical take on human beings LOL - caused by erstwhile leading immersion of populous in a provisional/supplementary income state during the Pandemics 12 months of "vacation" - I think there is a bit of elephant sloth in the room here. Not ALL - don't get one's panties in a bunch... but a lot of menial jobs that are not celebratory or celebrity ... ( Dirty Jobs/ c/o Mike Rowe et al), suck ... let's face it. Adding to that, the reasons you state around a younger generations not wanting to assume the roles of entry level. Also part of my cynicism I wonder, is that partly a generation of trophy-intoxicated atta boy and girl participator thing? Now that communities have succeeded socializing them into the "like-ably charming entitled" to mid-salaries, automatically, with less awareness of what the word merit really means as emerging adult responsibilities, gems they are ... Sort of what ur saying there.

maybe a pricey season for home heating dependencies upon oil - which lets face it ...directly or indirectly that's everything. the intricacies of energy-economics will do whatever it can to justify inflating gas and electric pricing to go along with because they wanna get rich off this thing too - lol, but we'll see - not sure if anyone's paying attention but the world's really closer to a brink-economic collapse due to a break-down of supply-demand logistical circuitry, then many may be aware. folks are kinda 'tuning out' on the calamity drama, needing a pandemic time out - but in this window there's bit of unawareness it seems. it's just a little emergent property and consequence of the Pandemic's lagged correlation impacts. but that's an extension of the point. that all means we'd better hope the N-branch of the westerlies yields to a some sort of La Nina southern stream ...which would tend to bend the flow S over the Great Basin and wave spacing then lending to ridging in the east but oh wait! Damn, that means winter may suck. Lol... Nice, the pandemic: gift that keeps on giving. f*ed in either direction.

Red Sox offense off the charts. Scoring TDS!