Typhoon Tip

Unfortunately, I have never heard of any kind of retarding or action belated based upon lack of antecedence - My immediate impression is that is meaningless - storms happen by restoring forces, no other constraining factors - if the breach between the two sides is opened, A --> B until A = B. Period. When synoptic imbalances set up, the action of restoring ( " --> " ) is the 'storm event' - but A and B are wholly physically identifiable para and discrete metrics. Like hot over there...cold over here... through moisture in between - boom. There's no "rehearsal" or practice about it. I understand your fuzzy with memory.. I'd have to read whatever it is you're referring to render a very good opinion -but just based upon what you've said ..heh.

You can really see how this is likely to evolve just by observing the general synoptic layout and then balancing in the looping satellite. That best present perceived centric low pressure has coalesced SE of the Cape ... It appears on sat to be moving NNE, but ..there is a limit to how much longer that motion can persist. There is blocking NNE ..this thing has maybe 50 more naut mi before it's slammin' to a halt. It will at minimum stall when that happens, but may as well assume the advertised west motion toward the coast. The latter italicized is crucial in the amount of wind that pulses west along with it, then lingerings over night - if and when..

I'd suggest 10 .. 20% above the background climate signal - The mass field indicators ( telecon spread ... ) lend to plausibility by pure statistics - which doesn't unfortunately offer any specific insight on how or what happens, but it is' purely based on the numbers. We have a maintenance -NAO bouncing around but holding negative, while the PNA is doings so positive. But for me, the tell might be that the operational runs et al seem to have a more than less coherent +PNAP amplitude interval ..roughly Nov 3 to 11th in there. So, it's like early detection - whether it is that above, or something else as yet to emerge, an 'emergence' some modest favoring over baseline.

I still am enamored some by the gesture of a coastal storm at all, really. - I mean ones of such formulaic structures in autumns - per my own experience - seemed to have "meant" well for events deeper into the year. Still ( and admittedly ..), it is hard to get a bead on whether this is that kind of foretell, or if it is just a part of the seasonal fore -lapse, -NAO's we've been seeing more of in recent autumns.

Heh...the Prudential - Blue HIll - ORH AP axis of 1K evil

Going with the GFS? Yeeeah, winds gusting that high seems a bit excessive at that location, for this storm's azimuth. As it approaches from the ESE toward SE zones ...they are naked to sky with still relatively elevated SSTs offering little or no inversion protection and the lower eddy tumbling probably mixes momentum down more proficiently and all that... But out that way, the storm approaches actually excites more NE pull of stabler central NE air. Probably there is a semblance of coastal boundary along or near west of a Willamantic CT- ~ ASH NH ... and west of there you have more pedestrian gusts ( 45ers .....maybe 52), which can kick the power off - no doubt. But the bigger hassle with wind issues likely is SE of said line. There are other models though - not sure what they are all getting at but the idea of the SE approach appeared overnight to be rather unanimously agreed upon - just a matter of idiosyncratic detailing with pressure depth and wind banding but the consensus was apparent -

Looking at this 12z operational GFS version ... there's likely to be a very significant acceleration of winds pushing W into coastal Mass/Cape and the Island between 00z and 06z, tonight. That's the critical window for the loftiest gust numbers ... but some considerable roaring over roof tops as it tapers only slowly through mid morning ..By mid day, tomorrow ... the wind will likely relax rather abruptly to just breezy with a few minoring gusts, as the low pivots quickly away as is weakening while doing so. My guess for max gust will be 84mph, with mid 70s over the exposed arm of the Cape and the Islands, ..with the highest numbers for Boston being mid 60s. Tapering off by wind climo heading west. I think NW of a PSM-PVD axis ...despite the gradient, much of the wind will be confined to the fast motion of the clouds with just occasional tree leans. That'd be my wind anatomy based upon this GFS run.

That's incarnate the torture endured by the indelibly devoted snow lover ... traveling through the eternal times of autumn. 20 to 40s fun killer temperature days ahead of synoptic events. I bet you, just to smack your faces up there it even smells like snow? I've seen that sort of phenomenon wait until 32.1 before the drizzle commences under the slate skies - ... while that internal monologue echoes, ' ..it was just f'n 24 F three hours ago'

Yeah...I'm actually impressed that despite the 'fuzzy' focusing ... the models appear to have coalesced around a meso-beta-scaled low feature there, approaching the SE zones - booya models! Back in the day, we let the chips fall where they may with these weird busted open multi-focused lows. I remember that big one that ended the 2014 season there was a system that did that - it was very intense, but couldn't get the internals around a coherent singular bomb so it wobbled three 'hook ins' around a common center - I still wonder to this day if missing the blizzard was cause of that internal struggle. As it were ... it sort of wrapped up the last of that years intense continental could and took it up into the Maritime and it seems to mild up and exit into spring within a week. It'll be interesting if this thing has a nucleated wind event that shows up on velocity channels - that might be cool if that is detected.

You can see the multi-vortex busted ravioli look to this thing east and northeast of the Mid Atlantic over the ocean, looking over various satellite channels. I spoke at length about this over the last couple of days .. but it is really exemplified by these morning higher res loops. The models were doing their meso-low foci dance because this system lacks the baroclinic focusing mechanics in the lower troposphere. The entire region is cyclonic, but without that focusing mechanism, the vorticity has a tendency to fragment within that general cyclostrophic domain. Baroclinic focus: a more typical thermal wall ... usually aligned from coastal/lower NJ to SE Mass ... etc - where ever that happens to be axial by in situ circumstance, but that is the general climate signal. The longer way that works ... when you see a lot of 850 ( use that level...) isotherms scrunched together, that suddenly open up on the immediate/astride west/NW side, that is an indication of an intensely defined and very upright tilted front along the axis of those packed isotherms. Typically, due to continent and oceanic geographic circumstance, fresh cold winter air masses bleed into the coastal plain, and meet the perennial west Atlantic ridging and of course ...the warm sultry g-string is there. This boundary subtends lower than the 850 through the boundary layer beneath, at a bit of an angle toward the warmer side... Such that, as jet mechanics at 700- 300 mb pass over from the SW..W, that d(mass) instantiates an inward restoring force and air flow moves toward those elevated jet streams from underneath, which only intensifies as the "tube" of wind max continues to feed over. This lower level incoming/restoring flow encroaches upon the frontal wall as describe, and is thus forced to turn upright along that boundary very proficiently. By nature a warm flow ( relative ), with richer DP air... It is conditionally unstable" ...made to be absolutely unstable as it rises and then enters buoyancy from explosive release of latent heat from cloud condensation ..etc... The combination of the overriding jets with this buoyancy force creates very powerful vertical ascending mass of air; the areas with least resistance underneath the underside of that " giant elevated tornado" ( kidding...) ends up being where the "main low" pressure aligns at the surface. One can visualize pretty readily, using that more idealized paradigm as described, how lacking the baroclinic focus at low levels leaves other patterns of forcing to determine where/what the surface lows will be. This is a tough wind and when therein forecast due to buck-shot meso tendencies ... The general cyclonic domain will have pedestrian breezes, then as others have noted ... a meso passes near-enough by and suddenly it's turbine time at an aeronautical proving ground.

Wait ‘til next May

This became identifiable really over the last 4 or 5 hours on sat too A deepening, non-tropical low pressure system with gale-force winds is located a little more than 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This gale area is forecast to move north-northeastward for the next day or so, and could acquire some subtropical characteristics before it merges with a frontal system by late Tuesday. The extratropical low is then expected to meander off the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coasts on Wednesday, bringing rain and wind impacts to portions of those areas. By midweek the low is expected to move eastward away from the U.S. coast, and could again acquire some subtropical characteristics by the end of the week while it moves eastward or southeastward over the warmer waters of the central Atlantic. For more information on this system, including storm warnings, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

It is .. almost wonder if this whole scenario .. .with its vague at best, lower baroclinic mechanical forcing, is sorta exposing the models for why they suck - it's all over the place with shit into the fan spray

That's why this looked quasi severe prone in the Euro, three days ago ... It had that warm sector engulfing the whole region from mid VT-NH and south... It was then carving the S/W underneath that, which if that ever took place would have been about as extreme a helicity scenario as can be imagine without actually already being inside 2 mile wide wedge ... ha - No but, the Euro did pretty badly at 72 to 96 hours lead on today's depiction, wrt the position of this lead warm frontal position - which is probably more fairly a stationary BD front looking at the behavior of wind and sat. The GFS and NAM nailed this - Euro is suspect in hidden ways and seems to get away with shit...

It's almost comical ... The 'fix' then this ? - it's like, "Oh yeah - we'll see" and I guess we will either way. It could be a scenario where assessing performance is ultimately difficult and prone to "unfair" ... The models may not know what they are doing in picking lows and where/how deep they will ultimately be. This has been a buck-shot run-to-run poor continuity already, wrt to that aspect of where/what/how. This may be a deal where there is potential to generate but getting the other stuff wrong will limit that potential.

Jesus, Scott - ur getting obsesses with that serial killer

Personally ... I'm having a tough time with that. It's believing, when looking at the present obs/Satellite on-going trajectories, ...that is is going to take place. The utter lack or zero zygote identifiably even existing down off the Carolinas or off Cape Hatteras, then having one suddenly emerge, then mature to tropical storm strength over this immediate now to 36 hours .. I suggest that is all convective feedback driven - again, because this system lacks a lower tropospheric focal point(s)/axial for low. It's almost like the convection genesis lows are given carte blanche But we'll see I guess.

Frankly, you're not asking my opinion but ALL the models have been warring their own continuity of this thing, spraying surface lows all over a more generalized cyclostrophic box S of LI... It's an easy meteorological assumption as to why. This lacks a baroclinic gradient below mid levels... badly starved. The thermodynamics of the sounding over RUT VT are probably not significantly enough different than Cape May NJ ...or not hugely ( enough) different than the eastern tip of Long Island. ..it's a big slab of rotted CC autumnal air with a warm front that is - yeah - detectable but when that 500 mb wind max/S/W cuts underneath, it'll frontalysis and wash out. Which leaves pretty much no mechanics to focus/anchor a surface low. Think 2005 December. It was coherent where that low would bomb as the meso models had this sick thermal packing along and just S of LI, to the tune of some 20C across 50 naut miles. The low as going to track along that low level nearly upright frontal wall. This system is opposite that coherency. This doesn't have a low level frontal tapestry like that. It's why the model behavior .. The GFS is really just picking whatever thunder storm cluster - first come first serve - it sees in the fractals out around 24 hours, and uses that - but those initiation points vary every run. That's basically what this is. It's a lot of mid level potential over top a missing low level baroclinic instability... Part of it makes me humor inside that this is "over blown" - pun hopefully annoying ... because with out a stronger low level frontal "kink" points and elevated slopes to force UVM to be more proficient, that lowers the evac proficiency to drill a deeper surface pressure result. We're getting deeper results anyway ...but I almost surmise those are other physics left to operate with poor constraints. Little hyper fractal lows ...again, then picks one. It certainly is fun fun fun though. Crazy and entertaining ... We've earned it after that last 60 days of "Ishtar" caliber weather cinema lol

Yet the tide predictions for coastal Mass are actually subordinate for them two days ... Woulda been interesting to see what this sea sucker would do on top of local 4" of sea level rise and a New Moon, huh -

There's a moment when that occurs, just past dawn ... very fleeting. It only happens once if ever in a given autumn. This year.. not yet so far. The antecedent days features less wind. Then, a hyper efficient radiator night takes place... Decoupled and dead calm, it's 24 by dawn ... You step out side and the only thing you hear ...other than the distant white noise of arising society, is the flicking sound of the cold-air dead-fall just raining down. It's best if yellows and saffrons of orange and red hues, but this will do this with any stage, too. In some sense of a more discrete cause for this: maybe moisture in the leaf stems freezes, and as such ... it expands 12% with phase change. That expansion at last severs the last of any fibers that were fixing the leaf stem to twig, and so the leaf cuts lose. You can tell later that afternoon if this occurred, because you can see the old layer of dullard-colored leaf fall underneath a dappling of leafs still having their eye-pop. It's like a built in guarantee to deleaf the foliage, should the winds of autumn seldom return that year.

Keep in mind those are 2 mb isobaric intervals. Index finger rule works usually 90+% or so … 1mb ~= 1kt. Maybe 1020 delta 982 mb = 38 kt middle BL jet and let wind products and experience do the rest.

It could. … I am really just trying to raise awareness. -NAO’s over the western limb like this one are correlative with suppressed/southern cyclone routes. Meanwhile … model runs trickling in doing so/adjusting deserves consideration. But this is a storm developing toward the E. If it doesn’t stall/retrograde it may not be as bad for NYC even if south. I suspect ACK and the eastern end of LI are getting whiplashed. As far as coastal MA the wind/925 mb jet appears synoptic PGF mechanized … CCB but it’s odd vert sounding. This system may in fact rapidly transition into a hybrid, particularly in a NAM-like way S solution coup de etat … Im leery of Euro

That said ...should the present Euro run prevail.. suspect the best wind along the northern cyclonic slope would incur as that 970 mb low is retrograding W along or just immediately astride/under L.I.

The trend south may not be finished... Also, the diabatic corrections to the recent Euro upgrades - I'm wondering if it is over prolific with latent heat release and that is giving this a pseudo-adiabatic over-charging... (unless I'm wrong about that upgrade intention - I could swear I read that. It is considerably more deep than any other guidance, and is also fluctuating run to run by as much as 10 to 15 mb .. This isn't the first run to sell a sub 970 mb, and this off-on aspect trend = "discontinuity" so let us not forget basic 101 model coverage -