Typhoon Tip

As far as I've been trying to assess ... ... we still have not yet at a society scope and scale, proven that "humanity" is even done the right thing with this management and 'proxy' over this thing. Remember early on? There was a speculation that we would not actually stop this thing, but only extend it's "pandemia" phase. In 1918 ..the Spanish Flu broke out and by 18 months ...other than pockets of frets and starts it was by and large a done deal and handed off to the future of Inf A/B ..etc. This? is at 18 months and it's teetering on those earlier visions that went something like, "...we're only going to succeed at protracting this thing longer.." ( the dreamy creamy profit slut lust hope of the "Industrial Media Complex" btw - ) The vaccines came in time - so it was thought. But now with those experiencing social stigma within their little cultural islands, in aggregate, presenting enough population ballast to keep the target pool large enough, this protraction aspect is kinda being tested still.

That's my point ... yeah. The "polar domain" as a whole is more important in said solar connection then the NAO sub-space that is modulated too much by synoptic vagaries. Guess I could have just said that - heh. As far as the 'rather have neg NAO' to each his own on that. I have done my own study and the majority of significant events were not associated with NAO's that were < -.5 and were in fact, rising at the time or within a week of significant event passage - which makes sense anyway, because the storms bring there bag of negative heights up there into the graveyard and that sends the NAO up in index mode, while it translates through..etc... Circling back the first sentence concept: in the exmple, the NAO just got sent through a modality that had nothing to do with solar. That 70% thing though ...I wonder, would the 70% improve(reduce) percentage when time lags is applied. The reason I ask is a basic model inference: The AO drops --> the westerlies descend in latitude --> blocking nodes evolve above the ring of the westerlies in the WPO-EPO-NAO regions ( Eurasia notwithstanding...). But that all takes time... who knows how long. It may even vary therein. Like the AO could be triggering this, but the these sub-spaces still haven't responded ...and on and so on. Or, maybe time lag is already considered in that 70% in this is an unnecessary question -lol

Covid zero .. riiight another f'ed up example of hubris if any sovereignty thinks that can be realized or managed - our species is not the biological gods in its fledgling technological presence on this world that it attempts, or by actions purports to be. not yet anyway ... that may be an achievement distinction in some distant future utopian sci-fi vision - if a Fermi Paradox explanation doesn't "manifest" first.. heh. maybe all this is just a preamble - like a first stop along a bio-Terra-forming experimental journey. That's an interesting thought ... why does Terra forming have to just mean climate.

The problem with the NAO in this analysis - for me ... - is that it is not really physically motivated into modes by super sets of forcing ( such as extra-terrestrial/solar... ) nearly as readily as it is by planetary wave modulation taking place in vastly shorter time and spans of synoptic vagaries. Start with the AO ( would be my argument; not meant as gospel -) The AO happens to share domain space with the NAO. The circuitry is through the entire polar domain ...to then partially motivate the NAO toward base-lines when any offsets are absent. Like, if the AO is negative, the NAO 'wants to be negative' because of that shared space, but the synoptic forcing is blurring that signal.. Thus, there is an influence on one another, but there is also a disconnect and they don't always share the same mode value, nor move in the same direction. This tendency for skewing, combined with the fact the (-) vs (+) NAO states are heavily modulated by short duration planetary wave phenomenon, doesn't lend very well to a solar forcing or very reliable ( or perhaps "believable" ) useful as a predictor for the NAO. I just wonder/if not suspect, that replacing the NAO with the AO in the above analysis, might be better. The other aspect is that the NAO is over-rated for the Lakes/OV/upper MA and NE regions. It always has been. There are times when it correlates to storms and cold and it seems like it's immovable. But in reality ...the majority of our storms and cold are preceded by modulation events upstream in the EPO/PNA ...while there is -AO tendencies overall. In fact, a data supported argument could be made that the NAO more oft then the other way around ..is a negative interference pattern. It may reflect a correlation more in temperatures than actual storminess in said areas.

This 00z ( last ..) did in fact back down the PNA (GEFs). The apex of that curve shed a standard deviation... though still immense for this time of year. But also, the end is opening up and descending to neutral now by week two.. I've also seen this sort of 'big error' interval occur before. Even in winter, when they tend to be a bit more dependable ...etc etc. My hunch is that we will see this thing flatten more over the next few days and perhaps a mean begin to represent the blend of the Euro/EPS mean. I'd include the GFS ( because it happens to quasi agree at the moment) but that would mean I'd have to do so i the future, and I don't think the GFS is a good model. NGFS is perhaps more apropos, as in No Good Forecast System. Kidding some of course... But it's consummate tendency to cumulatively lower heights on the polar side of the westerlies is easy to see when comparing to other models that routinely score better. These lower-ish heights edging, gives it more velocity against the expanded warm heights of CC ... as though a fast hemisphere need more velocity? It's insidious that way, because a fast hemisphere ( anyway ..) sorta hides the GFS bias. It does seem to correct as it gets from D10 to 7 to 4 ... and so forth, perhaps adding to not being seen. In reality, it's not a terrible model - no. But it's just not very good at detecting/hinting out there in time because that bias is damping stuff.

I'm curious what the GEFs 07/29, 00z computation re the PNA look like. PNA is supposedly non or low correlative/confidence at this time of year, but it's hard to argue against the look of July 20 - Aug 2 ( aft and for') and how well that has/is matches up with the GEFs derived +PNA. Chances are, when it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck ... it's a duck. This pattern, aft and fro, fits nicely enough within prior PNA forecasts. I have never seen this robust of both amplitude and concerted agreement in this PNA, entering early August - ever. Supposition for those that like the pain of headaches: I have been noticing this in recent summers actually ( to be honest ..) The PNA has been a bit more useful than the italic assumption above over recent summers - it's been consistent too. I hypothesize why.. The speedier velocity rich hemisphere's we have been observing during the last 15 to 20 winters, is not entirely dispersing in summers. It's relaxing, but not 'as much'. In short .. relative to summer circulation climate we are still seeing somewhat elevated geopotential wind anomalies in/along the best perceived cores of the westerly jets. [ enter data to support here that is not merely anecdotal lol ] This enters wave mechanical arguments - easy ones at that. Fast flow organizes wave structures more proficiently. The rest is academic; this reduction of entropy/off-set of normal summer nebular tendencies, is tending to manufacture/maintain R-wave structures. These structures are going to abide the same laws and behavior as they do in the winter/colder months. "When," in this sense means nothing. So, you tend to better definitive wave structures, the telecon's thus pop back to life (if not partly so).

Didn't fall off here in N Mass as much as the air sniffed like it wanted to... interesting. 57 to 63 is the bell curve from scanning around the hill-folk home stations tied into Wunder'. I see a definitive pattern change on the way. The hemisphere moves away from the anomalous R-wave ridge-trough .. to something- not sure the models/ens means know where to go really. That look out there almost seems like a waiting pattern for a signal to re-emerge, or assert anew either way. Either way, I don't see a longitudinal ridge along and S of 40 N as being very stable. I also find it interesting that some recent operational Euro and GFS are signaling another retrograde warm front event, similar to what transpired once or twice back in June - in both occasions, preceding a WAR retrograde. As an aside: I'm curious what the GEFs 07/29, 00z computation re the PNA look like. PNA is supposedly non or low correlative/confidence at this time of year, but it's hard to argue against the look of July 20 - Aug 2 ( aft and for') and how well that has/is matches up with the GEFs derived +PNA. Chances are, when it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck ... it's a duck. This pattern, aft and fro, fits nicely enough within prior PNA forecasts. I have never seen this robust of both amplitude and concerted agreement in this PNA, entering early August - ever. I have been noticing this in recent summers actually ( to be honest ..) The PNA has been a bit more useful than the italic assumption above over recent summers - it's been consistent too. I hypothesize why.. The speedier velocity rich hemisphere's we have been observing during the last 15 to 20 winters, is not entirely dispersing in summers. It's relaxing, but not 'as much'. In short .. relative to summer circulation climate we are still seeing somewhat elevated geopotential wind anomalies in/along the best perceived cores of the westerly jets. [ enter data to support here that is not merely anecdotal lol ] This enters wave mechanical arguments - easy ones at that. Fast flow organizes wave structures more proficiently. The rest is academic; this reduction of entropy/off-set of normal summer nebular tendencies, is tending to manufacture/maintain R-wave structures. These structures are going to abide the same laws and behavior as they do in the winter/colder months. "When," in this sense means nothing. So, you tend to better definitive wave structures, the telecon's thus pop back to life (if not partly so). But that's hypothesis. It's a bit of a subjective-objective marriage there in order to science. We are not PHD legends sitting behind an Earth toned oak desk with a retinue of terrified grad students in a state of default institutional abuse to maintain their grants, just begging for an opportunity to prove it is true ... Besides most marriages fail inside of 5 years anyway LOL. I tell you ...as much as it curls my toe-nails to say this abused ism, 'Imagine if that happened in winter' Ugh I hate the escapism. It's so meaninglessly arbitrary. It's like being in a 20 minute typical summer thunderstorm, and say, gee - imagine ? But in this case the comparison carries more usefulness because, that is an unusually clustered/'instructive looking' curve up there, and probably an unsung or tallied metric, it is one that may have never been 'modeled' to do that before. Man, it'd take Rain Man to track of that sort of thing .. ha! But in early August by an entire ensemble system. Every member

Looking back … it’s been a ‘2 steps ahead (models) 1 step back (verifying)’ getting us to this air mass. As a result it’s taken some 20 days it seems like. Models were routinely over digging between D7 and 10; they inevitably trended flatter. That said the longer-term goal was to succeed in finally eroding heights down in the east. I kind of consider today through the weekend as maybe the nadir. Then will have one more go at summer and see what that entails. Solar max ends on August 8 tho but we did do June, which relatively that may actually be a competitive anomaly.. It feel like I’ve noticed this over the years … summer does tend to come in two waves - if perhaps just anecdotal…

What about June … wasn’t that the hottest June ever or top 3.

If you have viral particulate identifiable through seralogic differentiation, you are positive. Use in content among various media ? doesn't mean shit. Media preys on the 96th % tile nimrod to sell headlines. POSITIVE = cha-ching. Mask = cha-ching via vitriol. They're actually socially engineering you by sowing the seed for the 2ndary and tertiary fall-out sociological flowery headlines. They aren't causing/ed of the pandemic, but they have 0 compunctions of exploiting it with 0 morality. When eventually evolution kicks in and people begin to sense at an instinctive level how none of this will work, and start reclaiming life by simply turning away ... zero headlines.

I suppose this does concern early August so moving it here Trough for this weekend is minoring out some. Has the complexion in both the operational Euro and GFS ( shockingly... ) to really just cease momentum and stop digging. It's interesting. The pattern in the operational models appears to be responding to the multi- guidance complexion of a rising NAO ...more so than that odd looking +PNA spire. Not sure what to make of the latter - it's seemingly historic in proportion in that outlook, heavily clustered too. I wonder if the GEFs calculation ( CPC ) is just wrong and the server needs a reboot - that's just not seemingly possible given the state of the Pacific, nor the climatology this time of year, but we'll see. It seems pretty clear to me that the heat in the west has helped mechanize why we are cool here over the last 20 or so days -. That is feeding back at hemispheric scales and forcing a trough into the Lakes. Basically the heat dome forces the flow SE over the Lakes as a geostrophic balancing/argument... ...which given time, causes heights to rise ( subtly ) and a +NAO response. We see then the activation of the WAR signal in the D7-10 range now - it's really a non-linear large scale wave mechanics in action.

Trough for this weekend is minoring out some, btw. Has the complexion in both the operational Euro and GFS ( shockingly... ) to really just cease momentum and stop digging. It's interesting. The pattern in the operational models appears to be responding to the multi- guidance complexion of a rising NAO ...more so than that odd looking +PNA spire. Not sure what to make of the latter - it's seemingly historic in proportion in that outlook, heavily clustered too. I wonder if the GEFs calculation ( CPC ) is just wrong and the server needs a reboot - that's just not seemingly possible given the state of the Pacific, nor the climatology this time of year, but we'll see. It seems pretty clear to me that the heat in the west has helped mechanize why we are cool here over the last 20 or so days -. That is feeding back at hemispheric scales and forcing a trough into the Lakes. Basically the heat dome forces the flow SE over the Lakes as a geostrophic balancing/argument... ...which given time, causes heights to rise ( subtly ) and a +NAO response. We see then the activation of the WAR signal in the D7-10 range now - it's really a non-linear large scale wave mechanics in action.

I spoke at length about that months and months ago then what happens … it mutates [supposedly ] into an even more potently virulence - Hmmm. Frustrating. Angering. Not a good optic

May be the hand of an archeologist alien one future day

Heh … I said I thought the trough would end up perhaps 20% less … I’m not sure that translates to much support for either side of the DP argument. Thing is this whole modeled construct is just amped enough it could spare 20% and still plunk in an autumn homage in the recent Euro runs. I have noticed the NAM’s hydrostatic hgts are still above 560 ; DPs probably won’t be terribly low or those would have to slip into the mid 550s. That’s only thru early Fri tho. Is there another boundary ?

Ha, right - "we never said the valley's dead. Just that it likes to kill people" Maybe it was a blossom that drew people into the trap -

whatever develops is gonna be haulin' ass

Reminds me... you know, how ever it is or isn't very well known... "death" in Death Valley is sort of a misnomer. Because there are flora species adapted to aridity in such a way as to remain utterly dormant...sometimes for a decade or more, and then when it does rain prodigiously in the valley - albeit rare - the floor explodes in a sea of extravagant wild flower displays. Moreover, there has to be pollen dependent insect biota also activated, otherwise, ...what's the the use of flowers? Basically, dormancy is replaced by transient abuzz of life ...with insects darting too and fro, flowers waving in torrid breezes, and probably ground floor rodentia have entered the valley foor, while birds of prey engage mobius-loops in the skies above, surveying for a rare meal. It may only occur once per decade or longer, but the region does have an ecology.

I think what this pattern tells us is that we can flip the script regardless of time of year. If we were passed the solar max ... ~ Aug 8 ... warm enthusiasts feel ripped off and early abandon. If we got this pattern in early September we'd be clocking early frosts. We may in fact go back and register another WAR- like pattern ...if/and/or some form of western ejection/enmeshed air mass after about 8 .. 9 days. Some semblance of that in the ens means and operational cadence, more or less vague at times. If so, this oddly sloped +PNAP is a memory - but... should be thought of when it tries to poke back in for a late August/Sept visit. I think this CC -related circulation and seasonal prolapse is real. I don't have any conceptual issue with assuming we see early autumnal strikes, followed by unusual warm bounce back ... oscillatory with snow tucked into one of the cold pulses toward the end of 2.5 months. Yup, I said it. Don't worry, it'll by 80 in November at least once.

2013

Just a thought ... 2002 and other fires of smokey lore, were really our backyard geographies. I mean Ontario? c'mon This? Come from across the continent, where from/via passage over and through industry - just wondering if there is some weird binding with industrial aerosol waste mixing in with it then being worked on by UV ... viola. We have a special kind of carcinogenic nox - lol...

I was living in Winchester MA at the time.. I memory that as a very elevated smoke layer. I also recall looping sat and it was a narrow band but ..could be miss-remembering - .. heh, working on 20 years ago. yeah, here it is -

Yeah 'been wondering. Not sure what the return rate is on smoke circumventing the global and choking far away geographies. I remember .. shoot, I wanna say 2003, summer. There were wild fires in Canada that summer and we got stuck in a high troposphere conveyor that brought a lot of smoke down but confined above~ > 20 K elevation. I mean it looked like busted mammata up there under ... 80 F with a dim orb sun. I thought that was impressive. Never on the ground though. I was just thinking about this very same subject an hour ago, when we bottomed out at 2 mi vis in yellow pall under diffused headache blinding obliterating sun shine, just how weird it was how you could smell what burned 2500 miles away. I don't recall that kind of fully integrated over-turning, either.

Hopefully it's I/Q's

Bye-bye permafrost over the NW Territories if that Euro's D9/10 succeeds in 590 dam heights over top +18 C 850s Anything to ruin heat enthusiast summers in the Lakes and NE ... setting off a global Methane outgassing apocalypse ...haha