Typhoon Tip

Yeah... that distinction of "Harvey being the only one" is a matter of [apparently] public history of the era - not my personal view. Just sayn'. Personally, ...I was not a part of the SNE zeitgeist of 1978 in all honesty. I was living in adolescence in Kalamazoo Michigan, really too young to have any cultural awareness at all. I was quite young, but old enough to remember the Cleveland Super Bomb incidentally, and recall its magnificence vividly to this day. As an aside, I always thought it almost ... spiritually significant that I experienced that historic monster back there and whence, had no idea what happened here just 10 days later that year... only to move here five years after that to a region equally enamored with annuls so eerily similar. I don't know which storm was worse. My family moved en masse to this region of the country early in '84. Some have stayed ...some have gone again onto newer realms after reaching adulthood. I've stayed and endured - so far. I've gathered over the years, be it exposure to historical write-ups, or verbal accounting of the mid 1980s here and there ( which mind you, were only 6 to 10 years removed from that event, at that time), that of the major networks at the time ... NBC/ABC/CBS, WHDH affiliate's newly appointed rock star singularly nail it. Now, ...there seems to be this sideways looking need to question that ever since I made mention of it ... it is what it is? To that I can only say: Keeping in mind, there were not a cornucopia of different options to an unwitting civility back then. Not nearly the exposure was available that we have access to now. It seems entirely obvious to me, there was/is always going to be dissenting opinions of what the storm was going to be. I suspect the renditions I have read and/or accounting et all, is just the limited general public access and awareness to those viewpoints.

Yeeeah ... the 'mental conditioning' you're mentioning is more after the fact, though - a subsequent consideration, sure. To mold the minds of ...shall we say, lesser orders, doesn't exactly take a "Clockwork Orange" classic. I was speaking to the dilemma of unequal intellectual ownership. Getting into the why? That [ probably/actually] requires a whole 'nother multi-disciplined approach - LOL. But among a myriad of consequences, manipulation is certainly one of those. I mean it's a fuzzy distribution out there where sociological constraints both positively and negatively re-enforce biology of I.Q. - in both directions, too. Good luck... Causes aside, at any given scalar point in time, civility is comprised of "intelligence-variance" that is vast. I described this the other day ? The distinction between dolphin to dolphin, and chimp to chimp, are there ... but tend to be nuanced. Whereas in humans those differences are hugely demonstrative. The distribution is not ubiquitous, and when smaller segments out-wit the whole of any system... that comes with decidedly more serious consequences - particularly when [tongue in cheek] "moral flexibility" is far in way more ubiquitous in human nature than adherence to any doctrine in that matter. If one thinks otherwise, they are in the "lesser order" We could get into the philosophy of 'what is intelligence,' too. Heh, burn incense over it. But keeping it simple: most cannot, will not, or are natively just not capable of neuroplasticizing their way to the likes of Mozart, a shimmering genius [ likely ] inept in the company of Einstein. Neither of whom were very interested in being "Jack The Ripper" ...And sometimes in between these extremes, there are those that painted frescoes, and wrote about the soul. Meanwhile, "densely" packed in between the gaps of these rarer examples? - the toiling quagmire of everyone else, where perceptions of urgency and needs turns the Globe.

No it’s cuz I had my prostate removed.

Two runs in a row with -EPO in the operational Euro' extended. That aside, seems in general the operational GFS/Euro are coalescing around the colder vision, perhaps sooner than the last 10 days of the month, but hold pending future consistency. Nothing historic, but the 850 mb metric suppresses S of the OV, entering week 2 ( 160+ hrs), and stays there, whilst Canadian reservoir replaces warm with cool anomalies. With a neutral-neg PNA flipping modes to neutral-positive during the period, and seeing more AB circulation type spanning the N-Pac in the EPS and GFS means, that sends a cooling signal into the Canadian Shield to match above. ..surprising agreement actually.. It may be setting the table for a series or singular event of more significance between the 18th and 24th.. That hyper bomb in the GFS is less likely veracious but... I do think it is a synoptic instability suggestion .. quasi Archembaultian deal. I suggest there is above 'normal model error' probability for something during that period - obviously it's going to challenge the tolerance thresholds LOL . ..ho man.. Sometimes we hate doing this extended lead threat assessing...cuz ya get all lubed up during the plot development but the movie is eternally boring waiting for it to happen. One thing we should bear in mind as the month ages on... The flow is manifesting fast tendencies ...(here we go again) a characterization that has plagued most winters in the last 10 years. Separate discussion topic as to why, but... speed saturation, with over-packed isohypses counts, stresses deterministics at all temporal scales. I think - in part - that is why there is a tendency for the models to over market.

Back in 2004 he did presentation at Ball hall up at UMass Lowell. He went through the day to day leading ...anecdotally, but had also slide projector to scaffold the discussion... It was pretty fantastic. He described in nuanced fashion ... sort of brought you to the psychology of being 'the only one', in an era where and when the technology ( modeling .. ) was really quite primitive to what we take for granted now - heh... you get my meaning. It was scary and risky - and being that we were mets and met students primarily in attendance, we knew of history of the technology. So his rendition was legit and genuine of motif. Still, he felt too confident to back down, right up to the day before. Then...it happened... morning dawned on the day of that snow wall you described ( he did too - ). Dreaded scud clouds raced west, due west actually... straight off the ocean under a thickening fore-canopy of slate gray elevated ceilings. Not a good sign - ...scud are liquid and tend to signify an elevated warm layer. His heart sunk. Because even though there was that crazy 1050 mb high pressure N of MN, with its mighty arm squarely and massively extending to N of Maine, we all know what an E trajectory off the water means... But, as the wall came in, and the storm was entering bombogenesis phase, the wind backed while accelerating by textbook; the game was afoot! Boom time... He was funny, it wasn't like 'see' at all. It was a sigh of relief - that was the impression I got.

Yes... but, they are using that argument against the majority population, where is inscrutably insufficient of measure or mental pedigree to analytically parse and categorize ... a processing that needs to happen in order for the individual ( and the integrals of masses, therefrom ...) to go, "wait a seconds -"

It would be cool to see those model runs. … I wonder if they’re out there somewhere, some long vacated dusty office in a file cabinet under fluorescent rail lights that haven’t buzzed to life in 32 years. - seems there was similar error on both to biases too far E, but verified west

Wind event

I have my doubts the atmosphere will be coupled. leave it that -

There's other models and a fuller manifold of metrics to consider... just commenting on the last several GFS ( operational ) cycles, that looks like steepening CAA-related lapse rates, while there is exquisite mass restoration mechanics going on.. As is, in those runs, it's an abrupt light wind to turbines.. Advisory would be first guess but as gets closer ...who knows.

That's a sneaky headline wind event there ... betwixt 06z and 14z Sunday morning with that weird ANA-cyclone hybrid. It's a lowered pressure anomaly prior to the baroclinic axis and wave as it approaches, so there's little restoration of mass; then abruptly/rapidly it continues thru and departs. The combination of starting at the depth of a pressure well with incoming higher sfc pressure superposes those acceleration vectors. That's an impressive isallobaric wind potential there these recent GFS looks. Symbolic too ... that front/wave sort of heralds in the approaching step down interval, so it comes in after many days of lower wind flux anomalies by abruptly moving a lot of mass very quickly, and when it is done, we are likely to be in a solid snow column.. At least for a moment. heh If that next Clipper like deal kinks up enough, I'd through Ptype out the window - that's snow in that hydrostatic profile/850 thermal layout/synoptic awareness... Anyway, turbine roars may come in like a p-wave and it's too bad that doesn't happen in daylight because the sky is likely to be festooned with oak leaves. lol

..he said tongue in cheek looking off sideways. Of course they do - but we play the game

I will tell you with high personal confidence, if those operational GFS hydrostatic heights, and 850 mb temperature schemes are correct, its green QPF will tend to be snow actually. Probably right up to I-95, too - ...same would be true for late Saturday in the far interior .. flash over to brief 'chutes. - sorry I had to fix this...got the two "mixed" haha. I also find that backside ANA-cyclone hybrid that's been gaining identity for late Saturday interesting. Man - fast flow high potency circulation type is a error juggle, not doubt. Euro has all features in question but didn't opt into a faster/deeper detonation of either the Saturday or next week - either way is equally likely ...

That's related to the warmer ( pun ) truth right there ( bold ). Solar voltaic technologies can be advanced much further ... So too can battery tech - where so in concert with networking and load balancing, wind is still quite infantile. These are unexplored fully, and Hydro isn't even in discussion. Jesus, the oceanic tide dependability is a gravitational engine that is limitless. In other words, their capacity has not been reached. Not even close really. But, the truth is, they don't want to be reached - that's the elephant in every debate hall, water cooler discussion, or social media platform there is. Opposition has vested interests that rely upon traditional modes, and thus really it's a form of "protectionism" - in a more open definition of what the word really means. Instead of tariffs and/or limitations on trade to protect internal economic interests, in this sense they are limiting "trades of information" in order to protect their own internal economic interests... Anyway, it is also a typical strategy to masquerade as prophet of infeasibility and hardship - one is not true, the latter is tough shit, you don't have any choice. They lose me at economic hardship arguments. Simple reason: There is no economics in a future where they don't exist, and climate holocaust means that. They are simply not connecting with that reality. They may as well just cut out the smoke-screening of their rationale and just admit, they don't see climate change as a legit threat. Many of these fields of research ( or where implement into physical use) are still primitive compared to how far they can be advanced. Relying on the right-now scalar capacity to foot their arguments is wantonly short-sighted.

Agreed. You know this, just speaking to the general audience here: And, it hasn't really been the other way with this guy .. save for one or two sporadic non-dependable runs of GFS ( heh, one wonders if there is a tell there). The 18z yesterday's NJ Model bomb was one of those .. But no continuity. Invariably, those notions immediately re-damped back to the too-little-too-late on the next cycle. I did a quick eval. The loading mechanics, as of the 06z, were just approaching the Date Line, out around 45 N. It was entering the compression under a progressive L/W in that region, thus pulled and stretched by fast flow ... extending out over the abyssal Pacific - in other words, in the absolute middle of nowhere. It is literally going to have to be 100% satellite sounding/assimilated. Which is usually fine - nowadays. Technology and techniques therein have improved over the last 20 years, considerably. I mean remember the good old days? As winter storm enthusiasts, how our dreams sometimes came true that error correction, upon relaying into the more physically realized sounding domain, would suddenly manifest and moisten said dreams. The last time this seemed to really matter was that Boxing Day bomb way back. That thing was impressive at D8... all but disappeared in the interim. Out of nowhere, just three runs it marches 2,000 naut miles NW! Still, this is a highly sensitive-to-smaller error scenario. The other limiting factor is that as the wave mechanics are diving in, the leading embedded wave space has escaped the EC taking most of the dynamics with it. The baroclinic axis, as of these overnight runs, is just too far off shore as you noted. The way around that is to have a stronger system relay off the Pacific. A deeper more momentum saturated inject introduces torque to the larger synoptic manifold. This manifest as flow rotation, or veering at mid levels into more meridian structure out ahead. That starts importing lower level warmth/moisture back W-N immediately astride the coast. Basically, b-c zone has redeveloped/ repositioned closer ... My own experience is, this kind of persistent presence in the models, usually means it is in and of its self significant. It's likely that one way or the other...it's a bomb whisking away out over the open expanse of NW-N Atlantic beyond D6, whether that begins to happen sooner or later.

That 300+ hr GFS is a textbook NJ Model nuke

Woah woah woah... c'mon now. To be fair, no model is handling this progressive wave tumbling pattern very well. The Euro did something similar at 240 hours just 4 or so cycles ago, having Indian Summer balm ... to runs later, gone. It's not a GFS sucks thing - either - when you are talking about Nov 25... I mean, that can't possible be a rationally fair metric - folks probably shouldn't be looking at that range if they are using that against performance - just being fair.

This ^ I was doing mid day errands and suddenly ... oaks peaked! Go wonder - there's also less common species mixed in that were actually more stubborn than the oaks, that were adding still green and those are flushing over brown/orange quickly. I wonder if this belated behavior took place in 1971

Yeah ... I think I read that bullshit requirement - Like 'an inch' ...what the f does that mean ... 'more than a pube'? That's razor thin, and if it is an inch, there are areas where it failed... I think it is a subjective thing that slopes in favor of getting a white recognition hahaha... When in spirit, white everywhere and not melting ... or raining on Xmas morning such that it is bear ground by 4pm but because it there 2" of corn snow at dawn really -yaaaay! I'm half snarking for fun -

Heh, I wonder what counts as "white Xmas" lol. If it snowed 6" on Dec 16 and 8 days later there's some snow piles lining curbs and some in the shade - that's bootlegging a definition. It just doesn't appeal in memory to be that robust to me -but ... that's yahoo admittedly

is that contracted per storm or hour ..? - it just says 200

Cool! I wonder what this would look like if it was run for 2000 - 2021 hm

Yeah...ensembles have been flirting with it. The 00z EPS mean was ever so slightly more consolidated with a closed ..albeit weakly so, millibar along Cape Cod, and also an 'attitude' for more amp at 500 mb. Earlier I mentioned, "There's a 'little critter' signaled around 156 hours or so... go from there. .." Meanwhile, the individual GEFies have been tossing a clipper like minor wave around the cycles like hot potato - heh..no one wants ownership. Thing is, the flow is flat -ish-like off the Pac ..it's not the best times for nailing mid range spatial and temporal aspects.

probably the last 70 we'll see until next Christmas Eve .... I know we've been over this a dozen times but it's just not something I really pay attention to, nor give much shit about .. but what is the return rate for white xmas' ? Jeez, ya'd think after growing up in the area through the 80s and 90s I'd have a bead on it but - ...I don't really know beyond guesswork. Like, I think saw one of the local on-camera dudes ..way back in the day, put up a graphic and so forth that it was 1:3 ... But I think since 2000 ( anyway ..) that's too generous. in the last six years, it seems it's been all or nothing... Remembering back recently, 2017, that was about as pinnacle idyllic a white xmas as Earth can do. No snow on ground with a winter storm warning in place by late in the afternoon on the Eve, and as the blue illumination cast through the morning windows ... 8-10" of Currier&Ives snow globe whirled ... It ended around cinnabun time ... and the sun coming out, I mean it was like angel's in chorus with prism icicle overload. All the other years since 2015? Satan's rectal canal ..

70 here