Typhoon Tip

not shocked - personally... Obviously the comparison between the two guidance types is your point - true...but beyond that, the Euro has tended to over curve the flow D5+ ... probably if thinking back fairly and objectively, it is a bias that really began that one critical upgrade that took place on August 1, 1979

Man ..that is impressive. KFIT is +19 on the low for today -so far. We may 'bootleg' that lower prior to midnight. Not abundantly obvious by how much that saves the absurdity of +19 ... The high is so far 64, ...this time of year, with billowing dark bases under the earlier zenith, that's probably about it. So figure +10 for high. Just looking at the NAM grid ..those numerical values don't lend to much cool advection to offset prior to midnight. We may still make 47 say ...but we'd still be talking about a +14 type of total diurnal departure - maybe. wow

The stratosphere draw-upon is faux science, too - He either doesn't really understand how that total mechanical/circulation system works, or... does and doesn't care because he knows his audience is in a different universe as far as any ability to take in what he writes through adequate filter of critical objectivity. Either way, .. irresponsible. The stratospheric warming correlation to the hemisphere is circuited through the mode of the Arctic Domain. There is vague, at best ... correlation between any mere erstwhile static or onset warm upper stratosphere, within the AO domain, and subsequent forcing the mode negative. Crucially, ...the science is about downwelling/propagating mass anomalies. That ring of warmth there? That's not it -

maybe -

"We have outgrown our usefulness," is a capture -all, perhaps. Then perhaps a more discrete drill-down, ... maybe 'outgrown our ability to compensate for the 'drag effect' '. For/when considering climate change/denial to response-arc's 'momentum crisis' more specifically, that might be more succinct. You know? - that metaphor, where if humanity's climate-change acceptance to redress capacity is like a fully loaded oil-tanker, needing 1.2 miles to turn around ( lest sail off the edge of the world, LOL ), while we only have half that distance before crucial thresholds are breached...etc.. Ironically, I just encountered the following URL ..> article this very morning! weird how that happens sometimes. https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-five-universal-laws-of-human-stupidity?utm_source=pocket-newtab. It directly relates to the mechanics of the "too slow" factor - how/why there is a momentum crisis. It all really starts there, in humanity's dirt. It grows like a poisonous thorny vine and strangles the forests... eventually. But implicitly, it is understood as a point, even though the article is explicitly not having anything to do with how fVcking moron-weight slows CC response - Again again again ... also a cog in the catch-22 machinery as it relates that Fermian explanation idea ... not just climate-change response slowness. It's also instrumental in pandemic spread proficiency, ...or why anything that's ever absurd is believed, and also can be ferreted out in the vicissitudes culminating in any tragic losses - usually, outside of 'bolt of lightning events'. It's really just an irresistible buffet of connection points, leading one to wonder ... how in the fVck saving this planet can really be tenable, when "bandit" or pure stupidity applies to the majority of a planet-fVcking 7.5 billion intents and purposes?! It can't ... Logically, it just seems foregone that at a minimum measure, that 7.5 billion has to go down ... way down! And the same limiting factors, then failing group-integrals, means that drop will happen [ most likely ] by way of ... 'rage against the dying of oil-lit lights' - use the imagination There are deeper reflections on the article's/Cipolla's posits for a different discussion - but in principle is apropos/factoring ( hugely really ..) in the CC crisis' complete manifold. Btw, sorry you're having to "re-read" - I can assure you ... it is not my intention to actually cause pain in a reader's head.

Wow... that seemed to fall apart overnight - interesting

Thing is … 1986 had two Novie events? I’m certain the storm I’m thinking of was the first snow of the season that year. That kinda matches the ‘87 - either way it sneaks its way into my personal top 10 among more obvious ones.

Oh shit! maybe it was '87 ...yeah... May be talking about the same one - I always fug up dates. Anyway, woke up at 3 am to thunder ...thinking the watch posted at 4 pm ( short window warning event ) must of bust. But, it was lightning and thunder and I was a nerd, so I got up and looked out the wind and wild tree sways in low visibility under butterscotch glowing skies ...just then, 'nother vim vim BOOOM... I was stunned. I mean, I had only heard thunder in one case in Michigan from a grapply snow squall LE day, which was more CB meso. But that night... it was my first synoptic lightning snow, in 3" per hour .. going sideways. We didn't get lightning even in the Cleveland Superbomb so.. Tell ya, since moving to New England, I think I’ve hear thunder in snow storms in any winter that has actual snow storms. Back whence I was still just on my 3rd year in the area and it was new to me, though. So, there I was a 3:45 in the morning down the street through the woods standing in a parking lot under a street lamp - ended up with close to a foot, much of which fell in 4 hours .. By dawn, it was light snow and done.

1986 had a fantastic fast moving thunder bomb ... on the 11th lol... Just missed! ... least I'd have to check - maybe it was the 13th or 9th ...but I wanna say an odd number

Considering there's a dreaded v-notch? nothing -

Almost get the sense looking at that, a couple few members must be emphasizing the 6th wave more so than the 8th-10th

That Euro solution might stall but ... you know I realize we're done with autumn's perennial boredom prison sentence and would like to move things along, the obvious applies here -

This ... I spoke about that aspect earlier yeah. It's like the NAO D. Straight variant eitehr retrogrades to west-central Canada, or...just decays in lieu of the latter - Either way, that is a subsume scenario as is in that lala range. But your general point is the bigger take away - in general, active stormy look may be setting up - and this time, actual cold/baroclinic physics to work with, most likely

Man ... purely for the entertainment of the thing, the value therein is priceless if one could see the next three days of where the GGEM solution was going with that mo'fugga.. ho man! Beyond the kingdom of Bun. That D8-9-10 --> leading is like that Jodie Foster "Contact" scene, " ... No words. only poetry "

It's like .... this boundary "|" represents the too late line in time and history below. To the left of that line is "in time," to the right is too late. Now say "*" is the demarcation time in history when humanity actually demos any quantized compensatory practices - minimally. "sooner rather than later" presently, is unfortunately the difference between this, | * versus this, | * but is still too late and cannot mean this, * | ( I'm not yelling at you here - I'm just musing from your launch point LOL ) Yeah, it's happening but too late in either case by the 'pictorial arithmetic' above. Further take: This cannot end-well. Now … it may end 'better', but not without acceptance and execution of two phenomenon: - broad sweeping attitude and life-style redress - not sure that can happen without self-dissolving dysfunction if not wars; It is difficult if not impossible for this Gen-Xer to believe otherwise. For having been raised and suffered along side of an ambrosia in humanity-self-impose vicissitudes, a world heated by distracting pettiness ( with a smattering of worth-while problems, as well), can ever make that transition in a white-gloved way. - population correction. How much, or how this latter transpires, are irrelevant. It is an advent in human history that is going to happen, whether we control this crash -landing, or not. Or.. adios muchachos. The population aspect is a big one - perhaps the bigger of the two. Because, prospecting life style hardships, and/or reticence to adaptation when forced to change ways and means ...perhaps can be graced by technologies. Kind of cushioning that ...if (say..) electric cars were to become that much more efficient, and solarvoltaics raise its median solar irradiance --> electrical power efficiency from 26% to 60 or 70 ( say ...), and be readily manufacture-able without big oil lobbying it's infeasibility. Perhaps there is an efficiency break point where if that is achieved ... we can run the grid without any coal or oil. Supplementing with ongoing or event advances in wind and hydro ...really, these latter techs ...? There's so much there. I mean Jesus, put hydro plants at tidal gates for f-sake. That is free power until the gravitation Newtonian model of the solar system ends ... It's all right there - we have the engineering intelligence as a species to take us to, and pass entry into the realm of K-1 pedigree - I realize there is an interpretation that K 1 organizes control at stellar scales, but I believe the K-1 is actually planetary. We just have to at last see through the illusion that there are of no other means. That's happening ...slowly. Maybe too slowly. The sociopath manipulation over an intellectually incapable western population, one that was erstwhile too pacified to challenge ( not helping), big oil has divisively stymied matters over the last 40 years. Unrealistic: choose not to make more than one baby per couple. In 100 years, that would half-under the human population. 3.5 billion with future tech and measure... maybe-maybe-not enough. As an aside, consider the biomass distribution of planet Earth. The human species atones to ~ 1/10,000th of the total Terran biomass. It is difficult to census the taxa comparatively, but let's approximate using a 'conceptual short-cut' - we'll use elephants. Prior to recent human intervention practices, ...~ 100 years ago, there were ~ 10,000,000 elephants. Compared to ~ present day population of humanity at 7.5 billion, 100 years ago the viable gene pool of elephants was 0.13% of our total population. SO ...using that a better than 50% accurate ( albeit still) sloppy metric, that sorta implies pretty strongly that if you could remove 100 - 0.13 = 98.87% of human beings, and you'd still have order of magnitude more people than genetic science argues is really necessary to maintain a healthy mating diversity. Isn't that lovely. Now...the toxicity of that exhausting bio mass, the greater "human organism" ...can certainly be ameliorated. Technology as "indistinguishable from magic" could evolve; the total detriment to the Terran environmental "Gaia" ( if you will ...) would allow a bigger population to exist without taking more than its share. Natural orders and dynamics would tend to respond, etc. But this is not realistic due to the human limitation of tending to only passively respond, at the individual level, when it comes to perception of threats, if/when they are merely instructed and imposed. Rather, the impending sense of danger has to appeal to one of their natural corporeal senses; those being, sight sound tast touch and smell. So it emerges ever more clear, the larger aspect of the climate change crisis is actually a sociological one. In fact, one could muse it's like "herd immunity" - we just need to get some 60 .. 70 or 80 percent of population's momentum going down a salvation pathway toward a cure, thus defaults the whole wagon in that direction. Sociologically, the salvation has to include acceptance of those above, unavoidable circumstances though; mandated ( or die, pick) toward that inexorable future... There are those of us that have been describing this for the last 25 years. And so now climate change is starting to appeal to these senses. Specters of wild fires and freak storms and unbearable heatwaves …really more so just in the last 10 years, this is the bloody show that births destruction ... Switch on senses = more responses. So it were, it only demonstrates what we knew to be true. Watching the world wake up to the "realness" now, is happening too late, and is frustrating. And so Integrating those years of 'hesitation' into group social-dynamic modes --> modalities over time, doesn't speed up responses. Obviously, ...the opposite happens. It slows down further....at a time in human history, when slowing down is just a death knell. That ..or something like that as a pan-systemic limitation to the "slow moving climate apocalypse," is integral in the total momentum problem. I mean there are other factors. It's not just passivity.

Agreed ... If I might add ( imo ). Normal to even below normal ( imagine that ) during early November was the only hook and draw for the period. If we get to November 10, having the best realized cold impact be shallow interior ponds briefly freezing over, while (at least) finally the lawns stop growing ( jesus christ), folks with rational expectations will be fine with it. Which concomitantly means, if anyone posts one f'ing intoned turn of phrase that grouses matters at that time, that means you are not rational mm-k there frosty pumpkins. Now, obviously there is sane truth to the notion, you cannot snow without supportive atmosphere - and in principle, not being in the 70s helps. In fact, having hydrostatic heights below 540 dm, helps quite a bit too. So in this sense we have 1 aspect in field-equation's worth of variables - check! There is some weight in operational run suggestion/continuity of that one particular aspect. Combining telecon spread ( from the GEFs system), to lay in a "snow atmosphere" ... at least is foundation. It's definitely originating in the large synoptic evolution - I like that, with first entry northern Plains, than seasonal negative anomalies spreading eastern to the Lakes and eventually upper OV and NE... We began sustaining a -NAO weeks ago, and that's on-going. I am noticing the D7 to 10 in the 00z operational (Euro and GFS ) are in fact deflating the lower D. Straight block, and a new one formulates over the NW Territories of the Canadian Shield. This total behavior is really indicative of a 'block favoring' hemisphere, overall. So, it's hard to target the NAO as any more or less causal in any set up, over just the former distinction playing its role. Interesting... Meanwhile, the American system's PNA is bouncing around positive. This in total is a low to medium cold-biased pattern for the mid latitudes of the continent, and so ... that's the frame up for the colder regime. This appears to last 3 or 4 days. The front side, and end periods of that range might feature something more specific that avails.

Same ... lawn's ashen aglow as though mortified in the night and is now wise; ha, sort of like when life's taken its toll. I tell ya, I was a bit perplexed this didn't headline from our NWS office(s) where applicable, late yesterday. It was air apparent this was a heavy frost, borderline hard freeze night and I don't believe the region had to-date passed through that rite of passage into deep autumn. I wondered if perhaps they opted out of issuance, if based upon the notion that the growing season had simply, already just run-out of time; belayed seasonal first dip allowing it to gradual extinction ... now irrelevant to warn. However, upon reading their AFD, the content didn't reflect that reasoning. It was odd, with statements like, ' ... the colder areas might make the low 30s so patchy frost could take place' - or words to that affect. Uh, ya think? 27 to 30 appears to be a common backyard home-station low when popping around Wunderground, and looking at Mesowest's rendition, FIT and ASH were 30 and BED was 28, so I don't have a problem with the Wunder spread here. This was a heavy frost headliner overnight over a large aspect of the interior, that was borderline 'freeze' by definition. Big deal? No. Of all the headline impactor facets of weather, ... this has always struck me as lower priority. Frosty nights are not doing anything that cannot be accepted as maintenance 'normal' inconveniences. But ...I don't mean to cast anti-cancel-culture "shade" over the 'first-night-of-30 f' crowd and hurt their feelings, either -

Our AFD is oddly out of touch with this down here. Huh. Talking like it’s “ possible some areas might need a frost advisory. “ Wtf. 32-36 everywhere already. Interesting

Today felt like it should entering November - or reasonably within range … just sayn’ but I know I know I know autumn can be a long haul bore.

… 40 already here. Coldest so far this season relative to time of diurnal Heavy glow lawn frost seems imminent Curiously … has there been a policy shift on frost headlines/issuance. I don’t believe the region has pervasively experienced one this season, and it seems tonight is a candidate for that but maybe I’m missing something. Perhaps no for the general presumption of end-growing season is already consumed

X 1 ?! ooh

Yeah this is about the the very best one could ever ask out of a Novie 6 Not sure how and what will manifest within, but that first 10 days of November has been signaled for quite some time as a period of colder temperatures …However so anomalous to be determined. That isn’t the first run above that suggested something similar might emerge. Got some Telecon support

Has that look of air mass where crispy mornings feature pond ice around edges, and still there in the shaded inlets late afternoon ... Nov 3-10 .. who knows thereafter.

Guess it depends on "effect" context and aspect/profiling therein ... Bob ate the region for a dining tab about $1.5 billion according to Wiki- so .. fwiw We'll have to see what/how limbs littering lawns and power infrastructure tallies compare. also ... I wonder what the marine/harbor impacts were