Typhoon Tip

Cool effect with the CB's casting shadows over the sea of smoke

man...made the mistake of hittin' a 25 mi ride. At first I thought it was the heat - was sweating jungle drops. But I got nauseated mid way through. 12 mi out and my legs were bonking ( burning and gassed ) .. Calf cramping. Couldn't figure it out. Then it dawned on me that it might be mild inhalation issues? I ride 75 mi a week, and run about 30 K worth. I'm into fitness... have been for years. Good diet. No life... all that - So it was unusual to get that nausea ... I finished in okay time. But I canceled my yoga appointment with the hottest instructor on the planet who even laughs at my dumb jokes. But when I called her, she canceled cuz she got a migraine - which she gets those. So it worked out... (actually she's married so I mean that will all respects - ) but yeah the air is blue tinted the whole way.

Global warming and elevate water vapor capacitance in the ambience

for the time being that looks like it's organizing into a linear complex/derecho up there about ready to threaten NW upstate NY. One can visualize that things sweep being down to about EEN-PSM later this evening perhaps. But not sure if the synoptics support it...just saying the present appeal. You do have minoring CB activity bubbling up NE of ALB and also S Maine coastal plain out ahead, so those betray that axis as having some conditional instability to work with

Technically we did tho - in June. Didn't make 100 but .. admittedly subjective, I've often thought of 'big heat' as definable for anything over 95. But it's relative to latitude/climate. Ex, that's probably not big heat for DCA to PHL corridor. But N-E of EWR-LGA ... The other aspect to consider is the HI. If that situates over 95 for long enough the discussion is academic only and removes the personality of the thing, which shouldn't work. So there's some gray area. But, no, we haven't seen hundred. That June 25 to 29 one had 97 or 98 in the area, on at least one of those days, with a DP of 73-like... I think that was big heat -

Lol... well - to the good reader I was obviously throwing some quasi- sarcasm out with that statement. I dunno - it would help ( maybe ..) if the smoke would alleviate. It's stealing hours from SB CAPE generation. It does actually seem like the sun is shining a bit more sharply to the surface as I type, and checking high def vis loop, there appears to be some thinning going on. We'll see for today but either way, it's still probably western zone and it's later-ish spill-over

heh... looking at D1 and D2 hashing displays over at SPC ... Classic timing contention for us. Too late today, and then tomorrow there's a line a TCU around 1:44pm N/S from MHT to Wilmantic CT that ends up a back lit wall of CB's rollin' out under the tropopause over the Boston Harbor later in the day.

Looking at that yellowy .. subtle orange hued firmament with the sun just feebly strong enough to still dapple shadows under trees and shade ... I always imagine that is what it must be like on a planet that has a red dwarf for a sun. Of course .. any such world is unlikely to have trees like we visualize of them here on Earth ... but just the quality and casting of light.

Wrt to climate change: I wonder if the more comprehensive environmental impact modeling takes into consideration smoke aerosols? I mean is it built into the complex math of it - Does smoke's reflective nature equal that of a non-human Earth clouds. If so, is there thresholds of mass composition in the ambient space of the atmosphere. Does that matter at sigma levels where the density of air is lower, so the same mass of smoke disperses more and so it becomes a morass of 2nd and 3rd order partial derivatives... etc... Smoke is pale on satellite...but it is not white. That may seem rather simplistic or unsophisticated ..but, white is white because it reflects more proficiently than dark. That isn't simple, it's just fact (not that anyone thought otherwise - heh). So logic implies that smoke doesn't reflect as well as cloud but ... there could be some other micro-physics that are less than obviously effecting that. But it does reflect some, it has to. It just is a matter of absorption versus - Very complex, because diffused smoke particulate matter is composed of a vastly differing spectrum of compounds. Any one of which reflects vs absorbs at different electromagnetic wavelengths. It's like an oil refinery Bible failure and Hades on earth soot bomb probably doesn't have the same albedo to absorption ratio as say regular western typical wild fire exhaust. I imagine there could be a theoretical spectrum, where say at one end you have comet/asteroid impacts, then ...oil ... volcanism ... woodland/wild fires ... SAL (saharan air layer) ... spread out from big to lower cost in the global heating budget. And it matters for climate science ( obviously..) because reflecting S/W radiation doesn't end up trapped L/W radiation, in a richer greenhouse fart world.

Gee - I wonder why that is ...

Killer heatwave in the Midwest on this GFS run. That ridge out there has been flexing in the late mid extended range for a few cycles …some runs more than others. So far the models are insistent on a bleeding at all south west of us but it could be really interesting for Chicago Also has a kind of 1930s look to it overall

Like I said… It was too early to start alarming because of the Yankees series… when it was quagmired with bad weather this and suspect “committee efforts” on the part of the umpiring staff that … the whole way thru. Sometimes the tides can turn because of something that happens in the game itself but that whole thing was being bombarded by circumstances from the outside in

Actually ...best this lawns ever looked frankly. Not just for July, ever The Irish sent representative but they reported back they couldn't compete. Plus rabbits - what the f is with all the g-damn rabbits. I swear, the next plague is gonna be like the Hunta Virus but linked to rabbits. And their brazen too ... they just sit there and a stare you down, like the one from Monty Python and the Holy Grail. One was even hopping sort of toward me. Really ? They don't seem to be afraid of people. It's a not a joke. They are infesting. Great numbers.

It's actually really nice here ...save for that rumble of thunder I just heard - wtf. anyway, sun popped out and it jolted 76. Shows that this is a "fake" cool air mass, entirely self engineered by weird synoptic feedback of this stationary nodal trough. I almost wonder if the ridges, W and SE of 90 W are causing this to spontaneously implode the heights because seriously, there's no S/W mechanical feed into this region and there really has not been very substantial. It just keeps parting then we fill it in with clouds and showers

well ...in his defense, he said "summer" Going by summer/Met clmo, pretty sure the (June + so far July)/2 = a positive return. It may not end that way ... but this 45 or so days in so far as summer goes -

Right LOL Like, " So c'mon and live in Baltimore - it's actually kinda fun if you think about it "

Yeah ...my neighbors have home schooled their kittens whole way, 4 daughters worth. The two eldest, twins, are entering high school this next year. I guess the way it works in Mass is that if you want to do home schooling ... you can be sent schoolastic sort of 'achievement milestones' exams, and the kids prepare for them ...however it is that the home, and the schooling, actually marry. The state and public domain is out of the picture as that happens. Built into the tax codes as a option I guess. Anyway, it was interesting sitting in their yard with them discussing this last 18 months, and gathering in their perspective on the reality of the thing. There was an unmistakable kind of "meh" behind fun articulation, almost glib due to lax urgency. Like you get from people in a room watching a dystopian movie and discussing what they were seeing, rather than actually being a part of it. lol - seriously though. Their kids have not missed anything. Just sort of had to deal with not getting to go over to their friends houses for the time. But they didn't miss a day of education or testing mandate or anything. No clue. World seen through 7 to 14 year old lenses, but not necessarily responsible within.

Oh christ what - did something happen out there ?

It's ugly and counter -WOKE perhaps to even make the verbal jest but - Pandemic disease and die-backs are a part of the natural order. To attempt to circumvent that proxy by nature, can and most probably will destination toward emergent consequences. Namely, a lost generation of techno addled nimrods - lol. Seriously though, the human is adaptable and it probably won't be as bad as all that. But, this bit of experimental evolutionary passage Humanity has just ... still "is" going through, is really the first time that proxy mentioned above has ever really been direclty competed with - I think that's interesting. Ladies and gentlemen! In this corner we have 3 billion years of biological periodicity between boon health, vs population correction eras, along with a lot of luck that the latter doesn't result in an extinction event ...etc etc. In this other corner, weighing in nearly 8 billion, we have human technology and the first species ( ha, "that we know of..." ) ever in the history of this planet's biota that approaches the wherewithal to challenge that model. It's like we may win this boxing match - but how do we fair in post dementia pugilistica? Uh, you know, punch-drunk syndrome. It's probably ultimately the same shit as that PCS ... Anyway, so we're beating our brains out proving we can win against that old adversary but at what cost - Hopefully it won't be like the zen-master story in "Charlie Wilson's War" ( fine movie by the way!) ...Which was really - I 'think' - a reprisal for that script of the old proverb about the "The Old Man Lost His Horse" ? ..In any case, both versions tell a fast story that amounts to how bad(good) luck ...tends to set off a chain of events that ironically causes longer term counter states of fortune. Hell, here's the zen -master version (c/o https://www.moviefanatic.com/quotes/movies/charlie-wilsons-war/ ): "There's a little boy and on his 14th birthday he gets a horse... and everybody in the village says, 'how wonderful. the boy got a horse' And the Zen master says, 'we'll see.' Two years later The boy falls off the horse, breaks his leg, and everybody in the village says, 'how terrible.' And the Zen master says, 'We'll see.' Then a war breaks out and all the young men have to go off and fight... except the boy can't cause his legs messed up, and everyone in the village says, 'How wonderful.' And the Zen master says, 'We'll see.'

Right - not sure how that can be avoided ( geo f'um physically) in this weird festering positive hydro feed-back loop. It's like we need 110 F to get a standard DP depression at this point. hahaha

Back on earth ... we may see a sunset in the east. Hey it's sumpin'

.... although, Kevin claims to like it.

Yeah ...it more so appears the neutralization of anomalies is more likely attributed to clouds abundance under this non-hydrostatic nadir/ DP collecting pool. Really, the metaphor works. It festers. There is no scouring CAA of 48 F DP with 26 mph NW katabatic streamline drying going on. We keep smearing out these wet intervals into what's coming tomorrow. 88/ 74 ... The next nadir either arrives, but really 'emerges' out of the non-linear wave mechanics of the negative region between the WAR and west ridge nodes..., train convection and the cycles starts over. You can already see the next oscillation setting up for hour 60 - still, not seeing substantive continental drying that typically happens at our latitude's summers some ~ 7 to 10 day periodicity in the 1900 to 2000 climate.

I was reticent to involve in the whole 'worst summer of all time' narrative that emerged like mushrooms out of the disenchanted peat ... But, I'm willing to nod to the notion of it this claiming July. And I did not see this happening - not even remotely really. It seems this murk we are experiencing in abundance over the last two weeks is a node between WAR and western N/A excessively expressing +PNAP. This has been in situ really since the big-like heat of the last week of June broke, we've been struggling to get away from this, but ultimately failing. At other times like yesterday and this morning, "submerged" in it is apropos! PNAP means "perennial north American pattern" in this context, which is not the same as PNA, or Pacific -North American. The perennial, or 'baseline' climate circulation mode over north America features a modest ridge bulge over the west, and a sort of asymptotic slope into an exit nadir over the Atlantic. Since roughly July 1 that has been in an exaggerated structure, regardless of the PNA, which was in both positive and negative modes, yet this +PNAP anomaly persisted through either. But, consequentially, we seem to have wound up in a neggie node here. This whole trough ordeal is really more like a weakness than a trough. In fact, looking at the ensemble initialization of either the EPS, GEFs, or GEPs ... we are in a ubiquitous neutral to positive anomaly in the non-hydrostatic heights everywhere over mid latitudes of N/A during this last 5 days. Yet, we are getting all this disproportionately persisting sludge parked specifically right here. The circulation around this region at times seems quick ... but the axis of it, itself, has moved some 300 naut miles ...or about 5 deg of longitude, in 72 hours! That's a planetary fixed feature. I am not sure if that is going to be the rest of the summer. It may. I don't know. But it is and has been the present 10 day to 2-week predicament of semi-persistence, having replaced the cyclic positive anomalies of June. Re that: there were four definitive ridge anomalies in the east from mid to late May to the end of June, and so far, none in July - at least that I can recall. I have seen them modeled, yup - but then within a couple .. few cycles, the structures always just collapsed back to this or variations of this, above. Be that as it may, tomorrow is a sneaking huge day-to-day change. That's the other aspect about this. We are managing to put together some really impressive intra-weekly temperature changes somehow by way of having this look in the means, when none of it has really been CAA transporting - by nature of the 'fake' or faux mechanics of it.

Maybe this was the genius of the cabals intent and design all along ... built into their formulaic 'population correction model' Half the people walking the planet and carrying signs at Trump rallies appear unable, either way ... struggle with inability to be owners of the brain boxes that evolution provided them, and refuse 'the cure'. The cabal created a Darwinian correction model that mechanically needs these types to work. Yeah ... that's saving the planet what ? 3 or even 5 billion in carbon integrated per capita right there. F'n morons..