Typhoon Tip

Holy salami sauce!

boom it's a ribbon -

Just based on experience this feels like a ribbon-echo squall thing today. Low lightning producing, mid altitude tops sending out .33" in 5 minute gray air rains. Flicker of lightning is down the line but most just get the pulsed tree tilter wind and rain froth. Good to catch-up de-leafing to climo. Maybe singling out who doesn't get to watch the ALCS because a rancid oak's laying 'cross their neighborhood's trunk line.

The air mass arriving post fropa this evening...particularly when it nadirs later Monday would be a candidate but ... the advection terms might offset that. It's close to being able to decouple with the longer nights now. Anywhere that does likely frosts early Tuesday a.m., but I don't think it is pervasive. lots of 37s with leaf stripping breezes overnight would keep that from happening. Could be a partial car-topper out around Orange, Ma. I think you need to prepare for an upper 40s at 1200', to just mid or upper 50s interior lower els and the coastal plain Tuesday, though. Probably some whisking self-destruction CAA clouds too. Chilly enough for jackets... modestly below normal, and by lax acclimation it will be feel that way. It rolls out quickly mid week. Euro has a solid two day stint back toward the upper 60s almost immediately beginning late Wed afternoon - which I wonder if that's too fast.. In fact, the 850 would support 74 Thursday, but unlike recently... that doesn't last. After that gets interesting.

Looks like seasonally oscillatory to me... Not that anyone asked, looks normal autumn cool backs followed by tepid sun mild ups. I think the hints of a siggy coastal in the last week of the month has some mass-field identity ( progs ) and may be legit in general - save any details.

No that busted - good call there...

Lol, ...or, "Once upon a time, we lived transiently after"

Sort of both ... Use the tropopause: it is the amoprhous transition between the upper troposphere, and the entry into the stratosphere. The height of that level varies between the Equator and the polar regions of the planet: taller south, lower north. From that basic principle, adding warmth to a warming world should do what? It should raise heights: might leap out as an immediately testable conclusion. What to look for in any such "test" - calculate the height of the ambient tropopause at a given latitude, then, compare it to the height of the tropopause at that latitude along a decadal time span. I bet money ... the height of the tropopause has been elevating slowly as the HC has been expanding N and the various Global circulation "machinery" is beginning to more permanently homogenize that thermal input into the Ferrel latitudes. But here is the thing. That warming is only partially homogeneous - there are colder feedback mechanisms ( although they are breaking down ...scary enough) at very high latitudes. That's sort of quasi-protects those regions. That, and, ...because they were starting at at such a low scalar pre-CC state, they have a lot of recovery room before the Equator and N/S Poles return to a pre-CC gradient. When that pre-CC gradient state is ever re-achieved, that means stress/break-point has "clicked" into a the warmer level ... (so to speak). Or perhaps the killer threshold that is mused and hinted in the general ambit. Speculation at that point that is beyond the speculation ...haha. No, but I do think/wonder if the increasing propensity to see these early warm anomalies in the lower PV circumvallate in recent autumns are really just the recent warming - in general - finally encroaching into those latitudes. As far as the latter question, it may by trapping aerosol particulates ...probably because the PV wind band is on average strengthening. That increasing velocity supplies a general lowering internally by large integral mechanics.. That can all happen well inside the stratospheric region of the PV domain, and be a separate phenomenon to what is being discussed above - which is really a smeared PV boundary argument.

Maybe in that sense ..research needs to define SSW-alpha and SSW-beta ... SSW- we-be-f*cked variants.

Bingo! That propagation/'down-welling' mass displacement is left out of this stuff, waaaay too often. So often, I don't believe a lot of these sources really have read or researched the science involved in the total circuitry of events of SSWs that correlate suggestively in forcing AO mode change. Merely warming the stratosphere reads like --> -AO, from them. That's not entirely statistically demonstrated. SO, when statements then evince that thought process, it begs the impression of false-frontiers ...like, "look at my special insight." Our field of meteorology ...I have come to find over the years, is a collection pool for that form of narcissism - while the real deal minds are not even posting, or, are posting because they have no lives. weird - Where are all a the Astrophysicists launching drive-by social media statement-bombs and then walking away in awe ? lol Cynicism/droll aside, ( sorry ..it's frustrating for a nerd to have to constantly field that) , it does just comes off as having really either a glossy impressions or knowledge, or self-promotion. What I am about to say is hypothesis, and may be wrong - so as not to be couched in that same irresponsible antic ... These warming product depictions, I wonder if they are a by-product of climate change, where finally warming has began more frequently observably pushing into the mid and upper troposphere invading/bleeding thermally into those altitudes/latitudes. We saw something suspiciously similar to this last year, too.. And what made it particularly difficult was that we did have an SSW, but it was late in the season.. And since the more non-propagated general form of warming took place early on ...this obscured the difference between which was which. The AO spent time both negative and positive during the warmth earlier in the winter, too - I think it's really more indicative of CC showing up in that specific niche, simply put.

Yeah I recommend if one wonders over a wild crop of them ..they should immediately and enthusiastically masticate them without any blue testing first. Mm...yummy. And the delicious ensuing biliary foaming 'ill make caster-oil reduction seem like soothing cup of warm cocoa.

I wonder if this new user is a writer doing research ... ( risking inflating egos by merely asking lol) Go into a domain that's essentially a crisscrossing of societal sentiment tracks like grand central "statements" ...then write a noir novel in the 'worse city' imaginable, painted in the colors of sensible weather doom from the pallet here. Maybe even lifting some turns of phrases ( "borrowed" ) when cobbling of their own smithing. Just staring in a moment of lax responsibility, thumb rubbing the handle of my coffee mug, when the oddity struck me in a transients of irrelevant curiosity. I mean, one joins a social media and the very first introduction is no introduction at all - it's an information fishing really. Doesn't mean it's "fishy" either. But no, 'long lurker first time poster,' or 'hey guys, just joined so sorry for the newb question.' Pick the intro cliche'. Straight to the gathering of information, "What city has the worst weather," perhaps only cloaked as just another weather-centric S.A.D. case. Loaded question designed to evoke honest longer winded sentiments that ultimately foster ideas in the researcher. This is actually not an unheard of practice. Lots of leading questions that are innocuously innocent get placed in Facebook (for example) timelines by people that have friended you, yet like so many of us..we have collected along the way these people we really have less idea who they really are, or how in the hell they ended up in our friend catalogue. And these inquests are often vaporous like that - 'What is the most remote, far away land of longing you can imagine being left to think of home...home home.." And they are innocent ... I mean, compared to using hate and fake news divisively, what's the harm in merely cratering a moment of one's mood? But if it is a research bid, ...merely masquerading as commiseration-seeking, do we get social engineering credits in the back-cover their best seller? haha

Reiterating… In 2011 we had a week like this in early to mid October and then we snowed at the end of the month - that’s not an analog to this year per se or anything but it does at least exemplify how it’s not unprecedented; and obviously snowing in October has definitely become that way

I don’t have a problem with snow in the last week of October or the first week of November… How we get that done/detail is obviously negotiable from this time range - but I’ve been telling you guys for over a week that the longer range Teleconnectors have been flagging colder synoptic turn for the eastern continent.

I will - I haven’t had a chance.

But what would define "correct" about dappling those QPF bombs. Are we looking for the models to be precise about where and when, or... just the fact that it occurs at all ? I don't have a problem with IB related convection but ... mmm I am inclined to agree that at this time of year, with so-so DP in the return flow overrunning... It looks suspicious even for 'whether it happens or not' Then, we could get a single productive thunderstorm cell and nothing else, does that count? It's almost "NAMian" in the sense that it is too sensy perhaps. Ekster and I had this conversation hanging over the stairwell down at Eastern back when it was down in Providence ... jesus, 12 years ago? heh. Anyway, we speculating that a lot of the problem with the NAM is that it it's too resolved - like too good of thing. It sees and almost like "speculates" to fill in gaps and that's the source for it's distractive aberrancy - we were just musing ... but, maybe the Euro is like "trying too hard" in that sense

I don't know if human techno-ethical morality is obligatory in that sense. We shouldn't necessarily meddle in other species' Darwinian mechanics. To which vaccinating Chimps in a wild setting certainly qualifies. Just imho - but going into to their ranks and vaccinating is still violating the better principle of 'non-interference' in the evolution of that species. It interferes ... period. That's a scientific/"organic" no-no and a big whopping one at that. There is a litany of philosophical whys to that. Longer muse: "the roads to hell are paved in good intentions" What we should absolutely NOT be doing is jeopardizing theirs, or any species' ecological-health regardless. Just observational, but looking around at what we do ... damming rivers that prevent fish spawning, to suppression of ecology-wildfires ( leading to thermal explosions that end up out of control ), to pollution toxicology that is lowering ( yes, this is true across most mammalian males) sperm counts, ... Jesus, global f'um C02 warming ... all of it. It is all supplanting the natural order in lieu of our own rapacious sense of entitlement. "Rapacity" in the context is sort of a gaslighting term but is unfortunately apropos. There's no real way to consider 'unchecked overabundant procurement,' other than through the lens of avarice - if one is objective. And/or what we perceive and even calculate as positive ( forget the negatives for the moment...), all too often is shown to be detrimental to theirs and of course ours, as unintended consequence. You know ... our species survival, in the sense of relative competition, has been won. We still have to answer to death at an individual level, but that is an ultimatum handed down by of a Cosmos defined by it and everything inside of it in inexorable finality. But, excluding the pap cultural weirdism that's out there inside the Industrial bubble the quasi denies that truism ... ballooning our population orders of magnitude, while doubling individual life spans, means we've succeeded. But, our species won't stop there. Once dinners are procured and the night's rests are adequate, we've continued excelling into surpluses. That gray area is certainly available for moral review. It's part of the catch-22 of our evolution. But that failure to connect, it really is a part of the insularity in the argument, one that is tactically used to keep on procuring beyond the necessity of one's need. The fact that poverty this, or malnutrition that, pestilence and disease, all these travails still haunt corners of civility? That is human design - pick an author of note from the last 150 years ... it's been foreseen for generations. The travails are purely human -caused, caused by rationalization in every moment for "harmless" rapacity, integrating all of human activity. The "ability" was the completion; not this latter irresponsibility to turn it off, nor the escaping equality. It works this way in my mind. We spent 99.99973% of our evolutionary background evolving to keep eating - think how a dog will eat to death ( we have appetite circuitry... I'm using this as a metaphor). But dogs eat that way because they spent all their evolutionary track eating what their ecology provided. Provisionally, that kept them just above starvation, and as a kind of on-going built in Darwinian test that favored the strongest surviving. We are not above that evolutionary arc - not entirely ... And, those switches are still in the on position, despite the discovery of the wheel, and everything that has precipitated since the lever to electrons. Despite our leaps of innovation genius that have sent us to other worlds and it is hoped to the stars, our brains are a very very recent advent in our history - brief digression: do Dolphins and Chimps know about black holes? Sorry - I can't abide the anthropomorphism of these lesser brain-boxed species. I admit they have emotion. I admit they have their cultures - distinguishing them by comparison to our paragon is false equivalence, primitive or not aside. They are not comparable to us. No species has ever been. We are unique and singular spanning 3 billion years of come-and-gone life forms of this world. Which means ... most likely ( to the chagrin of our conceit..) we are a fluke. Our leap of brain did not evolve checks-and-balances ( perhaps as 'instincts' ) at the same rate. When the Cosmic Ray Burst a million years ago swept it's mutating radiation tsunami through our solar system and zapped our tree dwelling ancestors, perhaps this triggered a gene that set into motion offspring with increasing nerve density. It hugely sophisticated the spectrum of our minds, from computing-power to imagination arcs, within several hundred thousand years we became peerless in our advantages over all others. Meanwhile that dog still eats the same way inside. That aspect remained unchanged. Fun stuff to write about ... even if the present era doesn't favor readers. I am a big fan of an analog universe - it is just that the colors and shapes obscure our awareness. The Cosmos is kind of a copy-cat artist, reproducing everything from one simple initial model-construct. Every iteration changes the dress; reality emerges, and ends up looking like a varied tapestry. Electrons orbit atom nuclei, while moons encircle planets. Moons and planets encircle stars, just like atoms and their electron moons bound to molecules comprised of multiple atom-electron systems ... like the planet-star systems then in turn, bound to galaxies. That is using a physical example. Irony is the brain's primitive ability to sense this in the non-physical: the synergistic outcomes, the by product of all these actions at a distance. They too are a reproduction of an initial paradigm. Whether physical or emergence', all these are just repetition using just enough morphology in shape or color, then overly differentiated by a brain necessity to categorization. Being God-like to Chimps, doesn't mean we are gods. When that is so, it absolutely interferes with the natural settings ... dimming their survival odds -. But this better practice means, don't interfere. It doesn't mean taking God-like ownership over all under the sun and seas.

What are the units on the X axis ? It says 'm' there but ...is that meters? As in, < intervals of 10's of ?? If so, that's irrelevant. I keep seeing this chart or ones like if flashed and I'm wondering if folks are really taken by the color association. That said, I could also not be right about that units on that X axis, too. Ha. But 40 "meters" above normal ? That's chicken shit in this business. I mean it may matter to climate/science concerns (maybe) and time-constraining for other long term implications and so forth. But there is no way 30 meters above normal SE of NS in the NW Atlantic cripples winter here. IN fact, one could reasonably argue we have enhancing baroclinicity, considering also in that depiction above ( just to use this one example... ), with that modest neggie over the Canadian shield means quite the numerically unstable canvas in the means, from ~ STL-PWM. That said, yeah... there is clearly an unbalanced ballast of "warm" colors vs "cool" color in that mercadal layout ... but that's just where we are at in CC; which to wit isn't so far along that we can't get dystopian(utopian) winter - depending on one's wet/white dreams.

These early warm nodes up there are not really the same thing as that which tends to correlate to -AO forcing we see more so in mid winter. In his defense .. he doesn't label that as an SSW, per se. But I'm not sure that is indicative, just the same. Those anomalies may simply be the ambience pushing the surplussing warmth at planetary dimensions, more readily into those altitudes/latitudes... There's only so much swelling at mid and lower latitudes the atmosphere can balloon to, before 'something' like that begins to occur; increasing the frequency of 'bumping' warmer heights into those high altitudes/latitudes. It may not be indicative of what he is using for that context ... Or it may ...but I have found an increasing frequency for that type of chart rendition in recent years, happening way ...waaaaay before the typical onset timing ( climatology ) of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming events. They seem to be more originated elsewhere and - imho - it is in warming ambient heights at altitude being compared to a previous dataset in order to derive anomalies - so it's kind of faux in that sense. At least something to consider.

Elevation's helping that along a bit, though. By that time you mangle that with continental abuse and settle down east of the Mississippi it's probably grapple showers in the lakes and maybe a frost here if/when the wind abates. But at least it'd be step in the wanted direction, sure.

well... in 'general' no - it's a cultural observation ... but one I feel pretty strongly is a sociological forcing that occurs when subjecting a populous to a multi-generational convenience addling. In other words, feckless virtuosity twits like bird-brains sitting in the cozy Industrial nest, with their beaks agape waiting for Tweet hand-outs. I mean it feels like, 'oh lost another one; what does feckless mean' you know? jesus - not you, just in general. Hey, did you go to Africa? Are you back - the f'n Sox won the ALDS ... hopefully you recorded. Those games are worth a quick pop through - ..heh, speaking of convenience. Man, that was great for baseball that series right there

Ah...I don't know about that. I agree that cooling synoptic interludes tend to be over-sold at this range as a "decadal model behavior" - I was just ignored for this very subject matter an hour ago... Lol.. no seriously, but we could give some back and still hold mid 50s with brisk chill wind with that trough next week. It may roll-out after that, but if the telecon spread is any indication, we'd likely reload with another incremental down.

I wonder what the low departures were for those days of climate past - I haven't bothered to geek-out enough to find data sources such as at demand back yard NWS site daily extremes. It's funny, ..if you attempt to find those on the internet, it's monetized to the point where you can't. I bet the internet of 20 years ago you could - but that's ne'er here anymore. Anyway, for me it would also be interested to know what the DPs were during those 85+ October heat highs. I have been alive for 50 years on this world, and lived 1/3 of the time in the Great Lakes, and the rest around New England, and I don't ever remember 85+ at any point after October 1st. I remember it recently happening in Feb/Mar/Apr ironically.. But if the data goes back substantially further like you say, ...heh, it is what it is. But I wonder if the atmospheres compare thermodynamically. If it was 85/45 that is a cooler atmosphere compared if it 77/57 where it counts - in the realm of physics. That's not impossible at this rate at Fit and Bos ...say. It matters, and really .. the scalar temperature belies the real usefulness of extreme-analytics.

Which is what they may be trying to do for the last 10 days of the month's changing of the guard, too ( how much or how little?) We'll see - honestly ... between this warm up, and that 'plausible' ensuing cool-down, this one had the greater confidence at relative..similar lead. The reason for the misgivings is because of the climate signal to be blunt, and that it is growing almost to the extent of "exceptionally" hard to verify cooler extended synoptic looks in models and telecon spreads, compared to what those similar layouts might have looked like 20 .. or even 10 years ago. It's like the models have their own "climate change" in that sense...where they have this emergent error to over carve the thickness and cold profiled synoptics, and it appears to be true regardless of model and version of the model in question, too. Bear that in mind as we get into winter, I suppose - Nevertheless, we snowed at the end of an awful lot of Octobers ...a distinction that probably more so than not, includes those November cold snaps and snow storms - the causality is the same forcing. It's an Autumn distinction. I have droning hypothesis but no one reads anymore so .. I'd be shocked if this sentence presently being typed was ever succeeded so who cares

Looking around the area NWS sites... HFD/ORH/FIT/BOS/CON were all between +12 and +16 above climatology for overnight lows this morning ... I wonder, do the low temperature departures outclass the high temperature departures poised to bathe the region later this afternoon. Perfect heating conditions ...relative to October 13 ... so it could be close. 55 to 63 are the pan-average highs, so obviously that would require 67 to 79 be reached in order to compare evenly. Heh, seems a bit pricey but it is already 63 at FIT and 66 at BOS Looking ahead at the higher confidence synoptic layout for the next 4 days... it really appears there is no stopping this four-day aggregate from being rather exceptionally warm. I mentioned this a long while ago, that a warm or near historic warm interlude was looking more likely ... It appears those early signals were not ultimately defeated by the usual attempt by operational models to interim hide it. Haha...