Typhoon Tip

It may just be a safety for low oil pressure/detection and having tripped some internal kill switch. Which of course if true ... that would require 900 $ to eviscerate the engine to find and reverse the switch. Plus whatever it costs to fix the oil leak. Parts and expenditure et al ...prolly talking 1300 minimum, or roughly 4 months worth of auto-payments ... hmm If that can be afforded at all, I might compare how much you had left on the loan, vs the consumer reports/facts about that make and model's longevity/ end life extension costs. My bet, ain't worth it. Just use that money for a down payment. But that also means, the car industry wins. Our society, especially wrt to cars, is a throw-away based economic model - they don't want you to fix or conserve and extend. The entire industry is based upon an assumption of endless resources feeding the manufacturing end; then, with an illusion that cars have to be owned to survive modes and ambitions, inherently every aspect is stacked in favor to getting onto a new loan plan for a reason Probably I'm guessing the car was paid off ? In which case that's the rub - you don't get a free car any more .. which is what major car manufactures hate. That's why it is cripples you to fix these things. Few other factors of course... J.Q. Mechanic needs his greed too -

Seems like every guidance I look at is going out of the way to hide how Sunday could turn out better ..jesus. The NAM's 18z depiction for early Sunday afternoon has 850 mb RH of >75% ...but is 60% at 700, and at or < 50% at 500 and definitely less than 50% at 300 mb levels. This profile implies that all the moisture loading is lower troposphere and boundary layer - probably in the form of strata/'pancake' ceilings. Naturally this to limit it's 2-metre T all the way down to a near historic 66 F for a high. The only problem is, no other metric nor our climate supports those features. - why is it doing that? - The wind is NW at that time..i.e., down slope. - The lift is gone - Though we dawn that day still in the cyclonic curvature bowl of the ( hint hint!) exiting trough, it is still exiting - and heights are in fact rising... That physically requires a DVM offset. Those three factors get more forcible during the afternoon promote improving ceilings. To mention, July 4 sun intensity is not being overcast by the higher 300 and 700 mb levels as denoted by the model's profile above - those level RH values offer at worse partly sunny and by criteria are mostly sunny if not clear, is shining that insolation power down over said strata CU layer? ...nope. Refuses. Not sure I buy that. This appears to be similar across the bevy of guidance though. Even the Euro is drier top down, in the backside rising height of the exiting trough, ..same essentials. Yet it too seems to think the 850 mb cannot be modulated. I dunno - seems like it can't do this but will anyway. Be that as it may, if it we start getting illuminated windows sun burst splashing by early afternoon, it just seems the guidance is too bullish in holding onto a shit show.

Currently looks like a decent band has set up HFD to BOS

I'm almost wondering if "some" of this horror story is exaggerated by convective feedback ... Here is the 12 z NAM or 21z ( 9 hour out) and you can see that the model is decidedly more morose in depiction in the upper MA than this satellite suggest will/is verifying ...

That D9 Euro ... if we go back to 7 or 8 or 5 whatever days before this last heat wave, that is just about a redux version of that those back-whence models showed. 594 again approaches the E from the E, while the heat in the west is buffered from injecting east by that residual trough/shear axis in the midriff of the continent. Interesting - strong argument for a base-line pattern persistence. Frankly that looks like a HC expansion ..and those ridges, west and WAR are just defaulting larger as that expansion goes... but hypothetic -

COBRA ... what a joke Cut off your arm and hand it to the lever operator ? it's amazing their economic model works. Perhaps even genius haha

Oh I've seen him before though - I don't remember 'im looking that way. Lol

who t f is that and why

I thought the Euro looked decent for Sunday afternoon ...no ? seriously what am I looking at then - The closed vortex is in the outer GOM area 12z Sunday morning. It isn't stalled - it's in motion moving out with rising heights already taking place back west. It's not instantly transformative, no - but 'improving' I bet that the skies are partial in CT and western MA and murky in Nashua at 9am, but both regions are cleaving sun splashes through enough by noon and the afternoon to salvage the 4th its self - on this run. 'Course may have to consider convective entertainment with residual albeit modest cool mid level heights.

There is that climate gauntlet down there .. I've heard all kinds of hypothesis - the best being dry air gets sucked off the S. Am N coast but ... whatever the cause, it is also muddled by the the notion, the Euro can't ever organize a TC on it's own. It does really really good after the fact. It misses the genesis much or the time, and then along about the time the genesis has finally become an actual presence in the initialization grid/interpolation, suddenly it swoops in, "Okay other models this is what's gonnna happen..." The GFS is wicked pisseed. No but it does have a stingy record with genesis in the tropics and so long as this thing is .. you know 1000 mb and/or less than 50 kts I'm not sure if the Euro's just being coincident with climatology in this case ? interesting - Right now the center is exposed from what I am seeing. The low level aspect has outpaced the convection at least for the time being. Needs new eruptions

Hah, I love triggering subjective irreconcilable, consensus -evasive debates. No one on-line has ever changed an opinion based on incontrovertible reasoning. Since the third law of the proletariat stalwart ( ... which states, subjective opinions will stay in motion until acted upon by sufficiently strong force ) cannot ever be sufficiently forced in an on-line medium, this biomolecularly precludes anyone ever can be really influenced at all. Lol, seriously, when was the last time anyone ever heard the phrase, " You know .. you've articulate your thoughts in a convincing, lucid, well materialized manner, and your points are satisfactory compensating for my love lost over a 58 f raining Xmas morning, so I'm gonna go ahead and change that component of my personality and spiritual make-up - thanks for your unworldly transcendent advice.."

Yeah that's something I noticed here yesterday, the pink lightning. Orange too - I'm wondering if the tall heights/ thickness may have something to do with that, bending of the light in deeper atmosphere and so forth. Just a guess. I also read somewhere when I was kid that pinky-orange lightning was typically a sign that the storm was dying/ and the electrical discharges were weaker so don't emit as intense photon radiation ...so perhaps achieving the same effect? Not sure, but yesterday's thunderstorms were excessively salmon lightning. Even CG's were pinky orange in person, so that photo above is actually on point.

Mmm not to be presumptuous in putting intent behind your question, but it 'sounds' like you're buckin' for a Long Island Express somewhere in there ... LOL The entire hemisphere could change in favor .. but at present, most leading indicators albeit modeled are only vaguely suggestive of large scale synoptic aspects that are common with that sort of entertainment. There are certain ideal modes of the atmosphere we'd like to see to get one to needle a pathway from 50 Mi E of Hatteras to EEN NH. 1 .. you want some sort of weakness or trough ...but not too excessively deep, parked in the vicinity of West Va. 2 .. some form of western-limbed NAO blocking is in the process of emerging. The flow between these too governing atmospheric modes directs whatever's near the Bahamas to turn N around the trough over WV, where/when it accelerates N but while doing so is prevented from curving E by the block downstream with the -NAO. Anyway, the NAO is neutral negative in the mean at GEFs/ CPC, while the PNA is bouncing neutral positive - it's not altogether impossible in those modes. It's probably why we are seeing pulled up N around the longitude of FL at all.. But the STR in the Atlantic now is too much and will probably direct this thing too far W ...effectively missing the key slots. The other aspect to keep in mind, there's no categorical paragons that have to be obeyed in these matters. It could go too far W of climate, but then cross Cuba's flat land aspects only losing 20 kts of momentum, before re-emerging, cutting across S Florida's equally impressive "10,000 foot mountains" before ending up moving N over the Gulf Stream east of the lina's. Oops.

Brian makes an interesting anecdotal point - whether he intends to or not, by smarmy sarcasm over preferentially sodomizing Xmas vs 4th... I mean, if one has no choice, that is - Xmas ruined Mem day ruined 4th potentially ruined All these with exceeding eerie pin point accuracy as though designated for destruction. This, during a Pandemic, too - oh they're mutually exclusive horrors... That's pretty remarkable as an achievement coming from a system of supposedly true chaos, that being a whole planetary-scaled vagarious nature of the wind and the weather it contains - the 4th should go ahead and tune up your butt just so that you can own that. amazing... But, to answer that question specifically, I think of the three, Xmas is an affectation failure, where the Mem day and 4th are actually physical in nature, in addition to affectation. Brown ground on Xmas morning doesn't stop the flow of egg nog, or Pork Fried Rice if Christianity ain't your bag...either. But, the outdoor necessity for both Mem and 4th is a requirement that is uniquely violated when it rains, so of the three - I think this offers some sort of objective criteria to justify the deepest penetration of Cosby ... ( and it ain't no 'micro-Cosby', either ) The question then becomes, of the two, Mem vs 4th ...which one's bum hurts the worse. This is an additionally intriguing question. Because, the 4th being violated in church janitor's closet is made interminably worse because Mem was already screwed. It's like the 4th is worse, because of Mem - where as if these did not happen in the same calendar year, Mem would the extensive psychoanalytic PTSD counseling. So in this sense, relative to this year's uniquely and creepy unlikely result gon' happen, the 4th is clearly the charmed winner as the death by kawabunga scenario.

I think it impressive to see this kind of structure in this region of the Atlantic, at this time of year, in the first place. I mean I suspect there's been CV TC in this region this early, before ..and probably all tropical climate months - but it's still rather rare to see such a robust long track TW succeed gestation into this kind of panache. That's a big circulation with a very coherent cyclostrophic cinema on satellite. It's moving too fast in the near term. It seems like the low level is in danger of outpacing the mid level column/stack, as at times the inner rotational axis gets really close to the western edge of deeper convection but then is saved by some flare up wrapping around. It's probably right at the boundary. You know this could be one of those systems that is tenacious - you gotta watch out for those? The ones that fight. Through it all and challenges, they get through the gauntlet of adversities - it's like an indicator for what could become of them if said adversities abandon. Look out! Hurricane Hotdog Bun slows down for any reason and that "development momentum" takes its revenge

Interesting comparing the 00z June 24 run of the Euro against the 00z July 1 day 10 ... some similarities here ... I think enough to add some credence to the repeating resonance idea - perhaps base-line return pattern.

The other aspect is half way through that trough trajectory as commented above, these models that are doing that are also dismantling/alleviated western/SW Canadian ridge heights ... dislodging that whole structure and sending it ESE; the coupled downstream trough should weaken too, but it almost seems like these steep deeply inclined trough carvers are overly conserving that trough once it is set into motion. The Euro does not do that as much - which ...I tend to think the Euro will be right. It both fits this conceptual criticism, but also...it is inside of D4 on that guidance and I believe it still owns the verification trophy in that time range - despite taking some perceptive hits over the last 2 years. Not sure the Euro being right saves much - it's still a rhea look tomorrow and early saturday no matter how we dissect it

Yeah the 06z NAM ...well, actually going back 6 cycles really since it came into its outer extension, have been hammering a warm season nor'easter for coastal sections. These runs have had a 19 to 22 kt sustain BL flow out of the NE with sheeting rains into the coast later Friday into Saturday morning. Oh, it's 54 F ... hence the summer variant. But 54 and mist wind with .15" per hour in the bucket rain rates for 24 hours after a week hosting 90 to 100, has way of exaggerating it's nastiness. Also (96+54)/2 = 75, ..sort of symbolic of nailing climate. F! Just commenting, not preaching: The trough in all guidance is unusually well sculpted at mid levels. It is coming down and closing off along a very tightly curved stream-line - almost like a "hook and latter" scenario in February, where a vortmax dives down unusually steeply through Ontario ( or east of climate trajectory), detonates a bomb SE of the Cape, and then capture ensues and foists the low NW over the top of the closing 500 mb. This NAM isn't precisely doing that, but in principle, it is - They typically happen when there is an abrupter mode change in the NAO, with sudden western limb height eruption that blocks and forces that. Not sure that is the same thing here - I don't see a hugely obvious -NAO ...but, it may not matter. Part of why that whole structure evolves that way is in part the extraordinary positive mid and U/A height anomaly over SW Canada. The down stream flow is really instructive off that, as a coupled mass-balancing - closed teleconnected system. It's a complete synoptic wave event to have the ridge where it is out there, with a coupled negative anomaly plumbing S over where it is. It is for these conceptual reasons ...there doesn't seem to be a lot of room to outright doubt some sort of deep trough. The NAM also notoriously has a NW bias in any scenario where cyclogen is plausible from off NJ to the GOM ... so I could see collapsing/ deteriorating toward less as Saturday nears. Probably will wait until tomorrow's guidance to do it, because it thinks it is winter and it is trying to gin up snow lover hard-ons to the most possible anticipation before it blue-balls 'em. Just kidding -

As lengthening history eventually benefits from an indifferent lens ... ...this may go down as yet another shimmering example of how there is American Law, and then there is justice - and ne're the the twain shall meet for those victimized.

Nothing's really changed regarding the weekend over the last two day's of guidance, not appreciably enough to deviate from a blown Fri and Sat ..melding into an escape improvment Sunday afternoon. That's the gist. Longer version: There are signals that Sunday may dawn murky, but being on the back side of an escaping deep layer closed trough with rising heights, while there is a PGF that is pointed SE being a down-slope direction, typically those scenarios result better skies and air than modeling. A partial clue to this is the Euro's convective node QPF over western NE by 18z, as the model is probably tussling with having to introduced destablization to the column, coming from sun getting through. Out of nowhere, the Euro has +20C 850 mb plume over us at D6 off this 00z run. Two days prior ... it has low 100s over S Dakota and tracing this appears to inject into the post trough roll-out synoptics by early next week and appears to be the source for this stripe of hot air out ahead of a mid week cool front - which is also up for grabs as possibly too strong.. It was hinted in the 12z yesterday, and the two cycle trend is to roll next week right back into some sort of low grade positive anomaly, but +19 or +20 C 850 mb thermal ribbon yet keeps the 2-meter only 92 at BED strikes me as a forecast in flux, and may be more than low grade - pending. Note, between the unusual 5-day heat wave ending June 10, and this most recent one, there was a sneaky 'rounding' faux heat wave in the interior of the 89.6 variety. This period of time does not show up well at the other SNE climate sites, as all three ..ORH/PVD/BOS are uniquely qualified to hide these kind of marginal garden variety heat anomalies. DY MAX MIN AVG DEP ====================== 18 85 60 73 4 19 91 69 80 11 20 89 71 80 10 21 87 69 78 8 22 87 63 75 5 Fwiw, I see next week ( 6th -10th) as possibly featuring days like those. I almost suspect that these are like our base-line, with cool and warm stressing either way as a general summer wash. There are signs that more substantive eastern ridging could returned 10+ days out. I've noticed we seem to be oscillating the hemisphere between eastern mid latitude height anomalies, then each one subsequently counterbalancing climate with negative periods, along an 8 to 10 day periodicity. This is a behavior that began back in latter half of May, and ...each warm episode brought more impacting heat. There's an upper limit to how warm these can get, but, it can get even warmer. Seems there may almost be an “air” of predictability suggestive with the above sequencing.

Well no question we’re setting a precedence for the summer. This is the third ridge event between 90 and 60 W that pushed seasonal-relative norms, seemingly recurrent on an ~ 8 to 10 day return rate ... each one impacting more - I think the aggregate ( and it goes back into May, and in fact I recall two ridge episodes back whence now I think about it the first one really didn’t deliver us any heat ) is telling more so than any one of them alone. There are signs that eastern ridging could returned 10+ July. Each one of the ridges above also was counterbalanced by negative anomaly Synoptics that ranged a week between 0 and -2 with nadir to -5 or even -7 diurnal means. Seems there may almost be an “air” of predictability about the above sequencing at a seasonal scale open at least the front side of the summer. More so than that there are hints in the Tele connectors… July is in trouble for positive anomalies

we might be setting up some training cells rt poop to the pike

decent CG along with plenty of in cloud bangin' out there here in Ayer, but the rain has been moderate at best. Seemed to squeeze through two cells here - split as usual.

Meso west doesn't have that - where's that source ? curious

Huh Didn't see this coming Bill Cosby's conviction was 'vacated' ? ... "His lawyer believes he will be released today" - CNN I was under the impression that he was damned to eternal hell as a serial rapist by the liberal press over the last five years, but .. vacated - Almost seems Onionian comically non-sequitur considering that saga. Wtf moment for today I guess. - maybe there were revelations recently in all that i wasn't paying attention to. It's CNN tho. They have a couple other articles there about the "opinion of the court" and all this other stuff but I'm peevish to put in nicely, about any "informaiton" that stems from that f'ing adjective torpedo launcher news org and don't feel like having to roll eyes at the moment.