Typhoon Tip

Yeah... I get that much. But I was hung up on the "last year" - ha! They meant earlier 'this' year... as in Jan/Feb of 2021. funny -

I'm not sure I follow? missed what -

I would not think it a very long guess that for most winter enthusiasts ...last year sucked ballz. It ranked very low on redemption scoring, outside of a narrow band through Central NE ..which will IMBY-lens arguments no doubt. Having said that ... I guess for pure objective reasoning, the bold means there was "at least" a chance? - no bueno. The humanity of the enthusiast would rather roll up that reasoning and beat the high-roader into a coma. Missing events by 500 mi is almost preferred over being C.H.ed ... It means one's region never was in the game. But a steady of diet near-misses is excruciating. No but 2020-2021 was a winter marred by velocity/shearing and negative interference tendencies the majority of time. That atones in most cases why those misses took place. If the scaffold of the pattern is circumstantially doing that, than the pattern sucks, and the reality did to. So I guess in this sense ... I would suggest using this objective reason to prove that subjectively, last winter sucked ballz, as being the fairest distinction. Ha ha yeah yeah, maybe it was just "bad luck" ...but I think the probability of a better vs worse result, relative to preference notwithstanding, is parlayed off of canvased winter pattern. Personally, I would rather not stack the deck with bad luck.

The recent Hadley studies have nothing to do with what was going on back in 1920s, which that decade vastly predates the observation and posited effects of the Hadley cell expansion since 1990; and in particularly the last two decades. Apples and oranges – in fact completely disparate topical causalities. You didn’t say anything in your response that really refutes the notion that HC expansion could be affecting the ENSO ability to modulate the circulation… I definitely agree with the MJO aspects though. This is no kind of a credit grab in saying so please do not try to go down any petty roads… But I’ve been saying the same thing about the MJO also getting muted because of the Hadley expansion for about 10 years. Fact the matter is… These things are almost always concurrently determined by multiple sources and it’s always a race to be the first one to say x-y/z whatever My personal observation with the HC is that it took a leap in the 1998 actually during that super Nino, and never really fell back to its original state before that particular El Niño took place - it has if anything grown somewhere between 3 and 5° of latitude since.

Finally ...we see a W/SW heat release signal... There's some kind of enabling god that is protecting SNE American WX Forum winter zealotry from experiencing those lobes on the Solstice - It's really rather remarkable how dependable that is -

It's all about momentum ... op ed as we will, opine and whine... but in the end, you have an industrialized world with 7+billion on board - I made this metaphor several weeks ago in a diatribe - it's hard to turn a fully loaded sea-tanker around inside 1.5 mi, when we only have .75 miles before the edge of the world. That's basically it ... that symbolism means, there is too much ballast going in the direction of FF for energy. This denial and those asshat "conditional sociopaths" all of it is just part of that momentum. Oh, it'll abate eventually ... in lieu of the new world order. Whether that is by force or choice remains to be seen, but in either case, ...it'll take time.

80/64 90+% sun here

I wonder what the elevation differences are between the Cuba site and Blue Hill ... Blue Hill's observatory/station site is some 630+ feet. The surrounding topography makes it a uniquely exposed site. You go to the observatory up there and you can see to the eternal horizon in all direction, unless it is clear enough to make out vastly distant serrated geographies, to far to matter. There are simply no competing elevations in the region, ...such that wind is rather ideally unobstructed. Cuba does have some elevations. I'm just curious if site-circumstance helped Blue Hill achieve it's glory, but the Cuba one may have "needed the bigger anomaly" to get to the measurement. I'm always in a quandary over the the advantage vs disadvantage stuff - because I see things benefiting or hurting, and I also suspect it belies aspects of total causality when this happens. It's annoying ... It doesn't mean Blue Hill's wind didn't happen. It's a sticking up with no wind breaks between it and the eternal expanse in the x-coordinate in all direction... A rare deep pressure anomaly accelerated in motion to speed that exceeds its decay rate, put that location up there with a huge advantage in this sense. It's like a baby born on 2nd based with all it's peers still trying out to even get chance at bat in life.

We have differing ways and means, but arrive upon a similar conclusion. I think that the silver bullet in seasonal forecasting is right there, like an egg on a plate for those starving for insight, but they just don't like eggs I guess. Or, don't recognize it as food for thought. Short version: The HC is subsuming ENSO signal; reliance on the latter is becoming less than credible. Longer version: with empirical evidence, now spanning more than a decade, papers have been/being turning of phrases, that separating the effects of Hadley Cell expansion, from those attributed more specifically to the ENSOs, is blurred(ing). "Blurring" suggests that it is not complete. That is true... hence why above we say, "Becoming less than credible" So, it may be more apropos to say over-reliance. But the last two warm cycles, including the 'super' Nino now 6 or so years ago, demonstrated impacts beneath the typical spectrum, along known climate routes. Meanwhile, the La Nina side of the machinery has correlated at times with the general hemispheric circulation mode, but only transiently. In fact, I've argued when it did during the last two years ...it was mainly because there were times when the D(pattern)/DT happened to be differentiating through the La Nina construct template. This gave a daily scalar appeal be consistent. I.e., it just happened to align while in route to some other destination ... One that interestingly too often arrived to mangled versions of more El Nino -esque. But, whether one looks at the pallet of environmental circumstances that, in theory, are related to what drives the governing characteristic of the total circulation engine - such as what you suggested, or they see it through the lens above and reasons ... that is using different mathematics to come to the same notion. The HC phenomenon isn't gone or going anywhere. The present ENSO signal is unclear, but likely less than extraordinary. I'd suggest that the distribution of SD events/phenomenon, over time, will be less identifiable/attributable squarely to ENSO ...although I guarantee, the narrative consensus will attempt to do so. It's funny ..there's like two climate changes going on. The geo-physical one ...caused ( most likely) by the "Anthropocene" epoch as it rages henceforth. Then there is a virtual climate in the zeitgeist of willingness to accept former changes change. Those are definitely lagged -

Heh you’re likely putting up +10 total diurnals with that ridge next week. Even if the skies gunk the DPs are keeping a minimum (pun) of two nights excessively warm relative to climo. It could be +15 in that aspect. The abv average days actually end up correcting the tot diurnals down. And if it’s sunnier even with it less rad the wick still sends it you can add the 10s Nocturnal temps have really controlled the SDs and that’s still going on. I guess that can be the case any time of the year but it seems it would be less likely if the transition season were really underway. Again I don’t think we can say the summers over until the 582 stops rebounding back north of our latitude- imo

I remember a couple of events even in early April '96. That year just was interminable... I don't think the spring was particularly warm either. It's like the winter never ended ..it just got lost in the genetics of spring --> like a recessive trait. LOL ...faded from blues to brown.

Actually... we had a cold snap on the heels. The next day or day after... we had a high temp of 9 in gusty CAA... The night was still +3 above because the wind kept howling - I dunno, maybe blocking played into that. But I don't recall much happening after that event/cold that followed, either. The winter over all was a needling disappointment after that lofty 1993-1994 expectation platform. Obviously we've portrayed these winters in a thousand different personal colors and canvases...It is well-known that previous year was frigid and had decent snow. Actually broke the seasonal record at Logan...though it would only hold that trophy for 2 years. It also had weird elevated warm layers. We had one storm ( Will and I have discussed...) that was decent snow but almost all of which was OE underneath a weird moderate IP storm. In fact, it really was an IP storm, ...at least synoptically. But the OE and secondary lower growth layer underneath kept up and gave good low ratio cotton balls that were probably getting meteoroid by big frozen IPs.. I actually stood in the drive way and saw some falling aggregates get fractured while chuting down. It was a like .75" of sleet mixed with 20::1 snow. Hard to do that. But it was a good year. It was also coming off the 1992-1993 ...post Pinatubo ( maybe ...) change in the totality of the hemisphere, that made Dec and later in March seem at long last like they were more plausible going forward. Either way, nice attitude reset, 1992-1993. Then 1993-1994 ... and boy! was the boner lubed for what? 1994-1995... Blue balls! That's what that winter was. The great Blue Baller -

Yup ...was up at UML ... only event that saved that years street cred at all. 10". It was ginormous by seasonal standard ..albeit totally pedestrian by climate - particularly since we started handing out twelvies like Pez candies

This may sound weird...but it is idiosyncratic to just my particular brand of nerdiness... heh - Of those two, the bold is the worse of them. 11-12 was so bad, that it became fascinating and earned points back in the awe-factor. I mean, sometimes shit gets so shitty you just have to step back and objectively marvel at how deep in it Nature is capable of jamming your head. Really a fantastic achievement in the scalar sense of it. Also, that Halloween in 2011 was something like a 500 year return rate event and I'm not sure I can really disconnect such a rare thing from a total winter. That's not really fair. If 88-89 is an the utmost asshole winter, I would argue 1994-1995 is a pube away - call it a 'taint winter

I'm curious how much of these seasonal nadir stops are guided by the vagaries of the AO index leading... That's obviously a very complex question. Multi-faceted factoring, most likely, determines. Such as momentum under air - as in, SST and ice thickness, be it solar sensitivity ... cloud permutations... and holy hell. But, perhaps the general negative versus positive index mode may encapsulate and thus correlate in general. A season's stop-loss takes place whether higher or lower AO. Positive modes of the AO are warm for mid latitudes, but are cold inside the arctic domain. Vice versa for negative index modes. We all know that... Those that don't want the Earth to die from GW ... would rather the summer be a +AO mode, and the winter to be oscillating between the ( - ) and ( + ) states...and on and sardonic so on.. lol. But more seriously, when using the CPC history the curve of the AO spent the ballast of the summer positive. It did briefly go negative around the first of September, but only briefly so... If then considering momentum and transience amid the index, it may not be enough to significantly deviate from an established seasonal vector to keep the domain conserved.. I mean comparing over recent years .. perhaps 'offsetting' the bottoming momentum of the physical ice from realizing how far it 'could have' plumbed.

Not a bad take there, no - heh, in fact, it's almost like, 'well yeah' It sort of goes along with that "flop direction" aspect I was musing about the other day - and have since it become more evidenced to be warmer, dating a few years now. It's interesting though, because the talking point was surrounding the tendency for modeled 'marginal' snow/rain events to tend verify more liquid rather than frozen/freezing, when some 20 years ago they tended to verify the latter. Maybe that tendency should be not just observable in model verification vs event profile/characters with ptype, but noticeable in the general bath of temperature management. Honestly, as obvious as that that seems now that I think about it, I haven't actually looked for that. Maybe when modeling a 'less than certain' cool versus neutral air mass, the verification tendency will 'flop' toward more neutral. But I guess in stricter terms, if that were/is the case ...neutral impies climo, and it would be the "first" september air mass, either way, that wasn't bootlegged off of Labrador rectal spew -

Isn't that some 2-weeks behind schedule ? Poking around the web for 'average date of first -' it's hard to tell though. Even sciency URL stops tend to white-wash ( no pun intended ) around a smear of times frames related to regions. I guess there's no way to be that discrete about the when-frost metric - ha! But it seems most agree, the midriff elevations of the Green/Whites back through the Adiron's, and up amid the NW chunk of Maine in general, are espoused as September 15... With the remainder of "New England Oct 1," I am not a big fan of couching Willmantic CT with Manchester NH but it is what it is...

... If it happens ? Obviously that question is built in and you likely intend for that - just sayn' But, we have been dealing with late mid range amplitude biases for a month in model behavior... Ridging and troughing for that matter. If/when factoring in, I wouldn't be surprised if the "cool" ends up being more "shot across the bow" And no .. this now is getting "synoptically lucky" with BD pull ins off the Labrador ...that doesn't count as the latter. We got this all July and get this on the surface of the sun in this shit hole geology

Just some abstractions and observations - I don't get that 'special' sort of rube and Taro card feeling about this season ... which, now that we are officially at the apex of, watching over a buckshot spray bullshit out there ..it's sort of not lending to any gathering in those creepy crawling sensations of grandeur yet to come. It's not the most responsible or 'empirically' scientific method, no. But it is shockingly competitive with Colorado State University, nonetheless... at least, I think -haha I was actually reading some other papered work that was integrating this HC expansion shit ... you know, one turn of phrase that stuck with me as interesting was similar to, "..With the expanding Hadley Cell, the circulation definition of it is weaker while growing in areal dimension..." (not a direct quote but in spirit) If that is true, it may explain - or offer a trigger point for hypothesis... - why these systems go from TD to Category 4 or 5 ...with fewer sustaining Cat 2. I'm sure there are those that do... (calm down knee jerk skeptics). Talkin' tendencies.. If we wanna put it another way, systems either sputter, or tend to go crazy, with fewer in-betweens. It seems that the increased entropy within the confines of the HC space, means that crippling developmental mechanics may be replaced rather abruptly by excessively favorable regimes, ..huge swings in potential, like all at once? Champagne corked and ready to go, they are just waiting to be released. Entropy means discord and fractal/chaos prone. Lower organization in a systemic framework. ... I.e., increased variability. Such that the models might be more likely to have a robust 95L, then as we get closer ... shear materializes more so from the former "uncertainty principles" - not the same as that of QM. .. Meanwhile, the handling of the westerlies E of the Rockies to NE of Bermuda is particularly abysmal right now in the guidance. ..It's not just the HC entropy itself By virtue of that - likely - being true, it would mean the amorphous trajectory/boundaries where it releases identity into the westerlies, is also increasingly error prone.

96L ... simpler terms, the hot Invest coding on that may have been inflated some all along. NHC can't really really be that certain with ROA to PWM setting by-and-by waiting for an over due Climate Change tsunamis of their own. Longer thoughts: It is not difficult to surmise the belated/apparent limiting factors in its developing. Shear Looking at the various sat presentations/loops therein .. the anvil debris streamers off the CB exhausts are all stripping away toward the NW-N-NE ...with no radial pull toward the southern arc. That means that it is imposing from SW to NE across the zygote circulation, and it is/has been doing so in the guidance ever since. I'm not sure if this is true, but observing NHC's Invest labeling practices in recent years: It exposes a suspicious pattern. It really does appear they've adopted a policy that is "hand-cuffed to whatever guidance indicates" modus operandi over recent years. They seldom trigger an Invest based upon now, or live observation methodology. Some kind of super cluster of modeling pops one out of the ether, then they do so. I guess the days of waiting for observation methods to suggest a circulation might be coalescing, are gone. They feel their models are formulatively accurate enough at emerging these regions of interest, so why wait that out. Or, it could just be that the modeling tech has just become that good, and they are actually competing with the old observation methods - and probably losing, too. But one can see their headaches with 96L. Days ago ...when this modeling was all there was and this was more relevant, civility lurked immediately astride the 96L drift... tauntingly, unknowingly what were its destinies. I'm sure at the time there was a handful of ensemble members we don't get to sate our addiction by seeing ( LOL ), pummeling into the NY Bite with Cat 3 ..and on and so on. Those outlier model ensemble members cannot be absolutely ruled out. Meanwhile, the consensus was that shear might be present ... So, they compromised, and goosed 96L all the way to the blood soaked OMG X, look-out, to raise awareness, bide time, all the while the more likely solution of a big open bag of meaningless runs its course. This thing also - however - has a bit of a suggestion of partially transitioning into a hybrid or some thing SE of NS...and some guidance pig deepen it there while stalling it...and that's probably a worthy headache result for shipping/Marine interests, so there's that. 95L ..back farther out there in the MDR, sort of evinced their pattern of labeling invests. The Euro ( of all guidance ..headscratcher) was torquing up 95L almost immediately upon leaving the coast Sierra Leone, over 10 days ago. Why back, it was consistent too - that D9 ... then 8 ... 6 days out, when that emerge off the coast of west Africa, it was going to be aggressive and coherent, becoming a deeper TC right away. NHC began yelllow-X with that 10/80 type ratio for short vs longer term development odds, when 95L was still scheduled 4 days outfrom leaving the coast - that's a pretty long lead for an Invest. But, it helped that other guidance had picked up on it, too. Then, it didn't evolve. It's still tending to be a weakly rotating gyre with heavily shear tipped convection stripping off toward the west... and over that time they've swelled its odds through red, and now settled back to orange. You can see across the behavior that they are "sort of" allowing the observation method to invalidate the models from that direction ... and since this thing has proven beneath guidance panache, ..it's kind of interesting.

Blocking is mainly important in the antecedent intervals for cold-loading the pattern. Otherwise you don’t want them actively exerting nearby when the west times injecting S/Ws or that exertion typical means suppression/..negative interference

Does anyone know of any free sites that cover the West Pacific Oscillation ?

Yeeeah ...I know. my thing is 'tipping point' has a built in aspect to its definition that it accelerates all at once. It's probably not a metaphor to say, the system in observance resists change ...then, the motivation exceeds the ability to stasis, a lurching aspect takes place. Then the new base-line is above(below) the previous. Provided the new regime isn't too different, the larger SD events may still pop into the previous for a visit. Like if the snow line moves N(S) of Philly ( say ...) doesn't mean it won't snow there. Just that there is/was a bigger leap into a new lower(higher) probability there. We could have/be in a resistance thing and not even know it, already. I'm just throwin' it out there. I'm not saying one way or the other. I think we pretty much beat this horse already .. but, my personal thinking is that I don't feel comfortable saying a human life span. We should also note that we are exceeding the climate impact models -

Mm... all thaaat, and there's also vibe of drama-junkie withdraw syndrome. I woke up this morning and saw a banal pallet of weather in all tech, everywhere. Those teases in the tropics look much less interesting. There's no sign of much seasonal migration to the general canvas... Even the heat signal appears like it's destined to be an 18 hour misty warm sector - followed by the shear horror of 0 SD in every direction... In here? fights a times, and occasional annoying compressed tension thing. In a way it's funny. It's like if there aren't storms and drama on the charts, humans create the hysteria. If there is drama out there, it is remarkably patient and understanding in here. Lol

Then it happens next year. haha