Typhoon Tip

This is some dorky ... ultimately trivial piece of minutia but, I have never in the 10 years owning this property gone through an entire JJA with a lawn that has maintained late April growth and color tone. In fact, I don't think I have ever seen that in my life, no matter where I've lived along the 40th.

I thought it was neat how the 00z operational Euro phased Ida's vestigial ...whatever it is as it is nearing the upper M/A, into a N-stream trough like it does. The union converts that into a pretty impressive nor'easter, with copious rains [ probably ] for SE sections and some CCB conveyor winds as well. Not sure that's going to do that...just what that guidance portrayed. The 00z GFS seems to smear it more west...

Mm, not so sure about that... The greatest storm surge tends to happen where the winds impact the coast at the maximum wind radii - That means the llv cyclonic jet orientation of and near the eye-wall. There is also science about the lower pressure helping to lift the surface in that vicinity. By convention of land falling systems in the N Hemisphere, that is on the right side of the eye ..but in this case, that does not extend far enough to put the greatest surge into those channel waters. Having said that, ...it doesn't really alleviate the the 'threat' by very much - no. I mean, the 'funneling' effect, ...plus, 70 kt sustain or whatever physical wind strafe is going to blow up that region, is likely to have surge impacts. But as far the 'worst possible surge potential' ... it doesn't appear based upon the above that can be realized by an eye-wall/ low pressure intersection, that is on the other side of the peninsula.

One wonders if Ida's specific approach angle might "spare" - if we wanna call it that .. - the higher potential surge that could otherwise come up the mouth of the Miss. It's approach is from the south side. Now .. obviously the region below NOLA as shown below ... is very lowland - essentially sealevel. Really it's probably more of a tidal flat in these sort of sea level rise scenario. I'm not sure if there is some upper threshold where if it gets so inundating it just over-runs and submerges the whole region. Think of it .. as though for a moment at apex, NOLA is the shore... That's what all this "looks like" - it would be interesting to sit with a FEMA pro from that region and really get into the details of the envisioned scenarios.

Not that this situation 'needs' more hyperbole - the nature of what this is, is it's own drama. It is one situation where the hyperbole can have no affecting superlative meaning, because whatever turn of phrase can be mentioned, those proportions are essentially going to match reality. Dead meat Not only is this thing already powerful enough to level the entire region ... rural to urban down to unusable, if not unrecognizable, and most likely, reduced to non-reentry of any civility that isn't a part of extensive multi-dimensional survey teams for shear public safety requirements, for weeks if not longer... it is doing the dread "bombing while arriving upon the coast" Think Andrew's older brother.

this is a bombing cyclone

Suddenly it’s a monster

Hopefully that’s the storm results in snow at some point so we all get between 2 and 4.5’ while Brian sniffs cirrus virga and glue… right?

bd very well advertised. Awesome out there ..

It's as though it were teetering with doing the show ... peaking around the curtain in apprehension. Pressure falls may lag the -80 cloud topped meso/nuclei that appear to be concentrating and also accelerating in the last hour. It's really either symbolic of, or outright indication there in, that it's T-minus an hour or two before we see either an RI or a goodly intensification either way. The question is, how far does that go and to what extreme - ... does it core out 24 mb and accelerate by 30 mph inside of 12 hours ...Or plus or minus either of those metrics, respectively.

They're also mentioning the ERC stuff ... The thing is, neither the RI, or ERCs can be ascertained, as to the extent it maximizes, or the latter fluctuation compromise wind velocity. But at that point ...it's really splitting hairs. 130 or 150 ... you got redic pressure well and probably a 20" tsunamis overtopped by wave running over the coast... I will say that with the dynamical models predicting the expansion of the wind field, it seems unlikely that a core would not begin to replace ... But, we're likely to get the RI first. Of the two phenomenon, the RI is more confidence. Bottom line, by 36 hours we may have a strong Cat 4 with no ability to weaken or drain off IKE prior to landfall most likely along the Miss. Delta/tide-water area. Inundation/over-run over those geographic features, and also up the mouth of the Mississippi would take place where ever nakedly exposed to the arrival of a storm surge given to present consensus

Bingo! The upper-level outflow has expanded over all but the southwestern portion of the circulation, and the upper-level wind pattern is forecast to continue to improve overnight and early Saturday. Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through a very favorable oceanic and atmospheric environment consisting of high ocean heat content waters, low vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions are likely to result in a period of rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased this cycle, and the bulk of the guidance now brings Ida to category 4 intensity.

agree with prediction elevation to Category 4 nearing landfall, but there is no way to know if it maxes there or touches Cat 5 or remains just 4. It's outflow expanse is growing immense - it has huge room for intensification. It is likely whatever shear there is, is likely to be subsumed by the total mechanic presence of Ida in the area.

heh...Reminds me...last year we had a advisory level snow event on Oct 30 ... it was 80 every day between ..what was that, Nov 4 and 8.

yeah it's 92/60s here

Legit cat 3 is potent enough for user's dystopian drug, anyway lol. No but It's really more of an experimental talking point. Its need stems from the gap between prediction vs, sometimes these cyclone do get into the 160+/ 910 mb VIP lounge - the trick is to know when. Seldom does NHC put out an advisory with a max wind forecast interval like that - yet they happen. Someone with stats? maybe 12 of these ilk of storm out there in the last 20 years. IT seems there's a gray area ( weak pun in there somewhere) in that upper ranging. But yeah, once we are over a buck-10 in sustained wind we're denuding the shore and calving roofs, just matter of how complete that denudation succeeds.

SW shear is very light and I still believe that as Ida denatures the surrounding medium in lieu of its mechanics, the cyclones subsidence circumvallate ring will take over and intercede any light shearing ... effectively creating its own environment that shelters that. If the shear were strengthening it would not be able to do so... Other than modest land elevations over western Cuba, I don't see any real reason why this won't just continue along an intensification curve. Frankly this is vivid candidate for an RI ... just reiterating my earlier sentiments, I know ... if this mid day surge in intensity isn't that process already beginning. I feel confident this cyclone will exceed present intensity expectation.

It's dropped over 10 mb in the last hour and a half

Now a hurricane

yeah it's like there is a 'key slot' angle ...which by virtue of being so narrow they tend to luck out for system's just not likely to hit that bull's eye. And approach of ~ 120 deg The Mississippi delta extends some 50 miles ESE into the Gulf; by that convention, a S --> N land falling monster is bad, but spares them the worst if say the open mouth of the river where it meets the Gulf were to forcibly gulp the ballast of a surge dome - so an upper tier category cyclone moving up from the ESE. IDA is moving sort of SE --> NW or SSE --> NNW so they are flirting with disaster here should Ida avail of what appears to be some very good parametrics.

Yeah ...totally valid as an idea - I don't personally have any on that particular aspect. "Ida"know what to say, Lol That said, the general arena between where Ida is located and NOLA is a deep bath of basically 0 negative/inhibitory factors as far I can tell .. beyond 24 hours from now. You know, passing over some of the highest oceanic heat content there is on Earth comparing to the world's other oceanic hot spot regions. As a sidecar wonder ... I sometimes think NHC is/has become a bit too reliant on modeling, and not really ...or may have lost some 'talent' or ... or perhaps policy forbades but the polish is lax. I read their discussions and it doesn't seem they elaborate enough on the top side implications. They do mention some light shear, but the modeling shows that weakening, and should Ida's convective circulation engine become influential, that'll easily supplant that incurring force and make it negligible to the core. Their modeling is good, but not perfect - It's a soft criticism... I mean, some day time and place the natural progression of ever advancing tech won't need this discussion. Hell, they're be a "Weather Modification Grid" so there won't be a need to even run models in that sense - they program the sun vs rain; that'll be it. Game over.. oy. lol. But for now, they seem to just be sticking with the model intensity consensus in a deep layer tropospheric synopsis that appears to offer that as a conservative model result. It'll be interesting.

I am not bullish on succeeding long tracks, any and every year lol... Like we outlined last page or two ago, it's like 'exposure' to reasons not to succeed is to great, and creates to low of probability to do so. That said, ...yar some years seem to demo flatter longer motions before getting pulled up. If that establishes earlier on... it may 'sort of' barometer the rest of that year. This year doesn't 'seem' like one of those, no. If the NAO does rise like the recent GEFs-based telecon suggests, that's a good start for getting one to do so. But we'll see... Not to be presumptuous ...but are you thinking about that next one coming off Africa in 4 days ? That's an impressive consistent signal in the operational and ensembles of them, going back 3-days worth of cycles now. That means the panoply of prognostic tools all see/saw it over a week from emerging off Africa - that's weird. The GGEM is not the owner of the tastiest solution for D8 ... day 8 haha! It's more about knowing it'll be on the charts I suppose.

Present convective explosion appears to be a threshold success and we may see this ramp a bit -

It used to always be that you could count on a right bias in the track guidance beyond ... so many hours. It appeaers that doesn't apply in this situation so much, for only being 3 days. If it did, this might correct toward the upper Texas Coast. I don't know about Rays 145 to 165 mph max wind nearing the coast, per se .. but I do agree in principle. The modeling of the TC its self, vs the modeled surrounding parametric soup of almost ideal favorable conditions, certainly spooks as the dreaded "intensifying upon approach," scenario ... Timing that, or if it RI earlier then leading *usually* a phase of ERC ...and all those nuanced aspect cannot be ascertained at this time, but seeing as those types of "alleviation" are fleeting, uncertain... and frankly appears to be the only aspects that can mitigate this scenario's upside, it is one that looks very bad - to me. Andrew did something like this...as did Camille, and there is plenty of at least anecdotal discussion in back offices spaces related to these tempests that do that. Sort of bide time and then go nuts nearing the shore, as at least performing at the classification. It's almost synergistic.

The melt may extend a week this year