Typhoon Tip

Kind of tough to go against the Euro at this range - this intonation may not be 'meant' but it doesn't seem to respect the Euro? It's okay, to each his own. But the Euro, contrary to meme and music therein, is a superior guidance technology at this range so disregards at one's own risk I suppose. Doesn't mean it will be right - no. But it's a risk.

The Omega Strain - wait 'till this thing works its way through the entire Greek alphabet ... look out! Cuz of course, it's much more dramatic and saleable than the boring old familar A-B-C's that way so its gotta be extra super scary

Heh.. pound for pound deer may be the dumbest mammals alive. I doubt it takes much denting of I.Q there to get one drooling while wondering around doing mobius loops. But the zombie-deer is funny euphemism. you take a big mass with zero higher order intelligence capacity/wholly guided by congenital heredity for impulse, ... cut some wires in the head, while maintaining a heart beat - yeah... I guess that would mimic a zombie. Kosher - ing is going to be a technological futures. Particularly if that shit ever got transmissible zoonotically - there's a sci fi novel

I haven't been completely sold on this even taking place - not as heavy as the NAM. The longer sermon version of this scenario would describe a situation that has morphed from a retro warm boundary, to an actual albeit rather anachronistic sort of coastal low. The prior renditions by the NAM weren't coastal lows - they were convective feed-back phantoms, evidenced by the fact that every cycle of the model had different foci. However, present sat/rad and at least one global model argues for the better synoptic forcing, and the consensus with the Euro adds to that. It's weak, but still having extraordinarily rich PWAT atmosphere. Blah blah no one'll read it anyway ... rains hugely more than a cyclone this paltry typically does.

Well … I guess in that situation you would not be ‘meeting deliverables with qualitative results’ huh you wouldn’t expect those people to do things from home and zoom but… Like I was just saying to Phin … we may not have any choice as a species at a species level it seriously all going to have to change and the sooner the better. this pandemic has that weird kind of serendipitous timing that will take historians to recognize -because sooner is better and perhaps necessity; it’s really giving us a perfect opportunity to experiment with a new way of thinking about labor and occupation and resource logistics and management across the whole spectrum of industry. Wake up call

Well unfortunately the accompanying leverage has less to do with what people want. It has to do with what corporations are willing to pay for. The impetus: companies do not want to pay overhead for facilities when all of this has exposed the previous model giant money sink all along. Pressure from environmentalist and the very real environmental concern with a carbon footprint is also modulating or modifying those decision making. There is a quantitative energy consumption from the moment somebody leaves the house in the morning to the moment they come home; that entire spectrum of affairs costs environment exactly where the environment cannot afford to spend. Most people who are business owners don’t think about this kind of stuff; they are intrinsically GOP types whether they mean to be or not - unwittingly so. Or they specialized in green renewable space, or they are going to be downsizing, whether they mean to or not. For companies that come before the environment … we’re coming to a point where the environment started to dictate policy because we have no fing choice and so neither will they Anyone who thinks or projects otherwise is on the wrong side of history…

Work revolution cannot be stopped. as the saying goes …that’s a ship that has definitely sailed.

Why? if they are getting work done and meeting deliverables with qualitative results what difference does it make where they do it

Yeah well not entirely sure you’re all not being had anyway -

Yup looks like it

Wow that’s some insane meteorology on that 18z NAM 25kt E wind at Logan jars S at 30 during 2 hours of fire hosing Usually you don’t jolt conveyors in the lower levels like that…

either people don't want to; people still think they don't have to ever get sick or die. pick one

Reputation and character perception mean something in politics, though. The idea of Gov Baker falling behind Cuomo's mandate mmm that assumption may have just taken a big hit, based upon the day's revelations. Apparently, the D.A. finds enough credible evidence that he's probably losing his nuts-in-public-opinion and being neutered of power here shortly.. He'll get his day in court but ... things aren't looking good for that dude. Not sure Baker will wantonly align behind mandates that were instrumentalized by a narcissist/sociopath fondler - even if exonerated, it's too late. Politics is perception - almost entirely... Our society doesn't provide pathways to redemption. And Baker and gang's political weight won't willingly be lightened by the erosive power of agreeing with the likes of an asshole

It's too bad FSU ( c/o Dr Robert Hart ) doesn't carry the cyclone phase for the NAM solutions. It would be interesting ... I suspect the mid Atlantic spin up is a diabatic/latent heat release/grid scale feed back monster that would also show up as a quasi-symmetric warm core ( though edged in favor of subtropical of course...), but would be faux in the first place if the low doesn't really exist. The thing is ...the NAM solution is not IMpossible. The model doesn't ultimately assess solutions out in time that can't happen- wouldn't be much use as any kind of prognostic tool if that were the case. Although, LOL, the model doesn't much so for any time beyond 36 hours most of the time but that's another story of reasons. Anyway, with deterministic Met ...the objective forecaster considers all solutions. It's just that the acumen is in deciding which one's are probabilistically better seated, and then tabling the others in lieu of those solutions/blends. In this case, I tend to think that the NAM is wrong - but I could be. Haha. But, part of the reason is because it has a history of zealous W/neary coastal interface deepening. I keep thinking back to June when a very similar evolution took place. WAR pushing west, pushed an anticedent/vestigial front back NW, and the NAM kept running these low nodes/QPF bombs along it. None of which verified.

Yup... it's been doing it on every run. spinning up little cyclone nodes on the warm retrograding front - pretty clearly diabatic garbage. But each one then positively feeds back and over rains/QPF...blah blah. It exhibited this exact same behavior at these same sort of time leads, when this very similar scenario of retro WAR pushing the boundary back took place in June. It didn't verify very well. just sayn' Also, the NAM is too cool on SE side of the post boundary environment, from PHL-BOS on Thursday imho. If the boundary washes out and is NW when that happens, the I-95 is probably 84/73.

You guys ever try anchovies on thin crust ? man … there’s a brick open oven joint in town here, “Sorrentos” … insane suck pepperoni savory goodness … sauce is authentic - never sweetened so not to interfere with the cheese meat juices .. all on thin smoke charred insanity. Anchovies added? No words. ‘course … one way ticket to hell if you got gout and hypertension cause of all the uric acid and salt but ya know … calculate your risks - it’s worth it as a treat

Heaviest rain rate perhaps of the convective season. Man that up the coast retrograding warm front has that upper bound PWAT green rain curtain look in the NAM - NAM did that also back in June when that similar ordeal played out tho. The physics in that model trying to close off eddies along the warm boundary from embedded convective nodes - creating its own feed back mechanics that gooses QPF; it smacks as the same thing. Wouldn’t shock me if that’s much less but regional reintroduction to the warm soup. Might briefly take on a Bahamas blue pattern as that front smears through while losing identity … In fact hard pressed to see where/how that rich theta-e then advects out. That’s a reentrance no exit synopsis out there.

mm... this represents a disconcerting question, perhaps lack of 'projection' ability in an abstract area of population "repulse dynamics" - whatever the f one wants to call it. What this will cause is surge in disgruntled ..eventually even violence, as people begin to feel violated on multiple levels, and then ostracized after the fact then becomes persecution - at an unconscious sort of level ... it's a quagmire of backfire risk there. But, the man is suspect over the last 9 months of narcissistic personality tendencies so, makes sense that he might forward this kind of "sensitive" projection.

Recreational Snow Vehicles are huge in the Netherlands. I'm surprised it took so long to come to 40 N in the U.S.

It's not going to "end" in that sense, though, anyway - sardonics aside for a moment. I mean, in what context does one mean end ? SAR-2 will change into subsequent versions but the essence is here forever. That's not ending. What needs to end is a preconception, or conceit really ...that humans are separate and entirely self-guiding, with total proxy over the biology of the world ( I'm saying that in the extreme sense to make the point..). So long as this misconception lubes the gears of reactionism, intruding into lives with tedious micromanagement will continue to fu-up and take any joy out of discrete affairs. But more likely ... people will realize this and soft revolt will cancel it out like the cultural zealots are attempting to dehumanize us with already. Longer bloviation: Once that happens and proverbial attention has turned asunder ... that's just as good as ending. But the physical reality of this illness' presence is never ending - now if we wanna get into future genomic mutation and changing forms and blah blah ... Okay, but again, that's not ending. We seem to have come to a point in techno-sociological evolution/feed-back on attitudes and opinions, where we are above the natural forces on a planet where we are 100% sucking off the environmental teat for existence. Okay, so easing the metaphor even more annoying further, if the milk is soured to our taste, yeah...we can change the flavor by vaccines and masks and distancing and whatever, as much as we like, but we still have to drink the sour milk. Sorry for the wax-philo-babble sermon but it frustrates me to no end when all of this we do, ... we do to ourselves. All of it. If we did nothing, and 500,000,000 died, that would have been a choice, too. People lose sight of that difference between an evolutionary biological imperative, versus the prevarication of imperative painted by hyperbole ... And I do think that on some level that hyperbole feeds back in influencing the evolution of policy. Yuck ... f you! We are delusional in our industrial bubble of convenience now over too many generations. The gestalt is in place now that is disconnected from real nature so far that we come up with plausibility in policy and act unaware of consequence.

Mm yeah not sure. I've been pussy-AWIPsed before but that's about it.

Is that product available from the ensemble mean

I was thinking along the lines of D3 - 14 frankly ...ha. Like in general. Perhaps more so next week, sure. Longer version: What's going on at a hemispheric scope is that the westerlies are pulling ... abandoning the previous look. The GFS ( typically...) left a trough baggage dangling as that happens. In somewhat contrast the Euro was more interested in 'filling' it in, and eventually flipping the wave sig and emerging a more impressive eastern ridge pervasive. Again, the Euro may be over-doing that specific aspect. The GFS seems to have edged in favor of the Euro though...so, that subtle move .. it's like it plays head games and tempts us. LOL. No but I think a 60/40 blend perhaps? That does situate a week long period of MCS look to me. that's all

what's interesting for me as this product's loop demos ..there are actually two TCs in genesis and tow through the basin over the course. that seems like a so-what in a vacuum, but i've noticed over the years - anecdotally ... - that TCs that succeed the journey without being pulled N and getting gobbled up by the westerlies early, seem to be preceded by a separate entity out ahead - sort of clearing and prepping the land for the road crew. ha. in this sense, it's not the lead system that we watch, it's the following one that developed a bit S and may - likely/theoretically ... - benefit from the predecessor's wake stability; it helps keep the second entity nicely/safely tucked beneath and sheltered from influences from the westerlies that 'would have otherwise' induced the earlier turn. sacrificial lamb, so that the 2nd system Maria's it's way up into the western Basin