Typhoon Tip

Yeah I'm just bein' a bit snarky about the idiosyncratic erosion of the thing. Ha. Sometimes these things look pedestrian and turn into impressive anomalies. Sometimes they are impressive anomalies, and turn pedestrian. This whole thing is the latter version - more than less. But, there is also a bit of relativity to this - I was just looking at the climate data/Prelim at NWS Boston's website and noticed so far for the month of June ( be it only 7 days in, granted - ), we are +10.5 at Logan. +4.6 at HFD, which is big, but not too unreasonable for that location. But +7.6 at Worcester, with the Logon and that, in all - this is not so trivial positive departure. Particularly considering the last two days are some 80% of the numerical weight in those averages. That's impressive. So in that objective sense, any summer and heat enthusiasts spending way, waaay too much time looking at charts like I just did ( LOL ) probably should keep that in perspective. Actually though, it was the only thing really notable worth much discussion at all back whence, so. I'm also wondering how often it snows in the midland elevation country of Oregon's Columbia Plateau and around lower British Columbia in June. Seems this whole ordeal is just a giant seesaw of anomalies along 40 north: up east down west. And it does interestingly seem to just be more notable along that latitude. Beneath that, other than rains in Texas, there's nothing very unusual happening from Cape May to California.

Introduction of cloud and elevating DP is more new than not, from the Euro/NAM/GFS...blah blah, for tomorrow ( Tue) onward. Today is the last chance for 'big heat' in this scenario, should those new trends play out. Which looking at Sat and synoptics, seems to extrapolate that way - so observably supports this as bullshit scenario by all modeling, all along. Went from 93 to 97 look for Tuesday, to perhaps struggling to make 89 if those NAM gridded RH values work out from 06z. It's not a relief though, because if the skies and air gum up as much as the models suggest, they cannot be right about 64 F DPs. That's probably 88/74 by 11am, which is no picnic in a field of caressing breezes and waving spring daisies. Probably anvil polluted skies over soupy afternoons where wet steaming roads smell of the dead ground hog carcasses and a Golfer makes the evening news as a strike victim. Tues and Wed may make 90 by rounding/70 type air - fine, maybe some impressive CB structures. Kind of a short term correction for this thing. The other aspect that I'm noticing about the late Wed period - it really does seem as though the models are engineering a front in the area, prior to the deep layer synopsis passage of mechanics late in the week. They may be doing so by deterioration of hgts aloft preceding said shit, and then convective processing gets underway and we end up with frontogenic layout from processed air. Man, you know I've never seen the models so hostile to a heat wave pattern - they really haven't 'liked' this thing from the get go. The ridging heights inside the 582 areal expanse have been Swiss cheesed in the runs the whole way; the 588 dm contour is meandering and with least excuse the models can't seem to really fill out the large circumvallate beneath the 582. That does intrinsically signal this ridge is sort of atypically not as effectively offering the heat dome capping. Meanwhile, the Sonaran/SW ejection aspect just didn't take place as the Euro said it would when this was still 4 days ago. We're verifying hot enough for pedestrian heat, because sun is so tall at this time of year, the skies averaging >75% clear. We'll see if today gets a convincing 95+ out of this thing. So now, the models have schemed and figured out how to steal back 2 days from this - haha. Okay, this popped on the distant signaling with a lot of cross-guidance prominence suggesting it could evolve into a more important ordeal, but just ended up pedestrian. Meanwhile, here comes autumn in the Euro on D9/10. Something tells me a that pattern is bullshit out there.

Eastern ma may max later Tuesday as the wind tries more of a NW trajectory

Yeah that engulfing pan-dimensional aspect began to look that way mid last week. Testament/owing to the spatial anomaly which the EPS and GEFs expanded as we neared.

The heat wave is supposed to max tomorrow thru Wed? It was brutal in this town at 94 and upright unrelenting sun, today But this is missing DPs so far. Typical heat waves arriving up here are thicker in that regard. We may dodge the soup factor unsure

It was one of those boon heat days for 'tweener ob sties and/or rube calibration - We had several home stations within 5 clicks of me around this area of Middlesex 95.4 ..etc... Heat Adv went into effect through 8 pm tomorrow ..tomorrow might have a better shot at verifying 'big heat' ( at > 95 ) at the climate sites. Still ..not sure what you call this at 94/60 but it's like just too cool to be anything but way to warm to be comfortable.

Boston put up a "fake" 90 at 10:35 on Mesowest - ...prooobably a rounding 90 with C conversion but it's decimals and fuggin hot for that moment of any summer morning around here anyway you cut it up.

Yeah got colder last night than I had imagined it would. The DP appears to be handled reasonably well. I have noticed the DPs in recent year's of MEX/MET machine coverage tend to be dry biased but that was not the case this last 24 hours. I figured we'd be more like 66 or so as the mixing ratio in the afternoons, and then settling back up to 72 during the nights; but relative to these heat event climatology, the DPs 'seem' to be a bit drier than normal, as well, matching guidance reasonably well. The impetus being, more water vapor kinetically charged helps to keep the night elevated. Related to that, it is interesting that the region appeared to decouple within a warm sector gradient and an on-going breeze heading into the evening hours. It just stopped blowing at 8 o'clock, and a evening stroll was in dead air. Seems we'll make 94 .. 96 nonetheless, due to exceptional heating parametrics in place. Impressive diurnal rise on-going. It was 85 at 10 am at KFIT and has bounced clear to 88 before 11 by 20 minues, so "10 after 10" roasts the afternoon. There may not be as much wind as yesterday, either. Discrete analysis looks like a neg pressure perturbation is stemming the PGF just to 10 kts in middle BL. Yesterday this was 15 to 20 and made for ventilation. Wouldn't wanna be in a traffic jam with busted radiator gauge today.

almost looks like a Derecho genesis

I thought my encounter was supposed to have been very rare, and therefore, was like the God of some tribal thing paying me a visit. Great things are coming my way because I was sent a message by the bear-God of triumph or something. - nope. It seems they are seen almost as frequently as deer these days. About two years ago, I was on the Ayer/Nashua Bike path chopping cadence to about 21 mph when I noticed a weird, giant black 'boulder' along the path ahead, and seeing as I've accomplished that route a million times, I knew this object to be new. It's like my breaks locked and my bike was skidding, before the identification circuitry of my brain sent the internal monologue, "BEAR!" -weird. "Okay, now what," as we stood our ground, staring at one another. It was definitely eye -contact staring, too, from some 30 or 40 foot. I remember there was a partially mental coalescing, additional internal monologue telling me to rear up my bike like a horse should the beast come at me. Never happened though. So I'm standing there ...breathing hard, pulse audible in head, as a complete noob to the 'encounter business.' About 10 seconds later the bear leaped across the bike path, its outstretched black frame spanned the entire 12 foot of the thing - no exaggeration, sorry. And it loped away quickly disappearing into the swampy sage and bramble shrubbery astride that other side of the path. I start peddling again, wobbly do to adrenaline and feeling come-down weak, and as I rode along, here comes this, I'm guessin' 27 -year old mother with a baby in stroller. "Uh, yeah" The bear's probably gone and I'm wondering how important it was to informed. I did anyway as I passed. Ha, before I had even finished the statement she was already performing the perfunctory u-turn, quickening apace in the other direction. 'see ya!' I was later urged to tell the cops ... because of her, and other non-suspecting runners and cyclists. It's a busy recreational path, one that does cut through some rather wild looking habitats along the 12.5 mile course. They connected me to the regional 'game warden,' who was very grateful for my call. Apparently, there are/were three documented sows with cubs in this area of N Middlesex N of Rt 2, and they are concerned that they were getting a local population burst - where's the sire? My description of the encounter to the warden suggested it was in fact a sexual mature bangin' daddy, 450 to perhaps 500 pounds of 'im, too. I can tell you, the head on this mother f'er was easily bigger than a genetically modified, 4th of July watermelon. Before this encounter, I had seen a bob-cat twice, different ones, bolt away when they hear/saw me coming. I've had to 'S' around huge snapper turtles, probably 24 inch carapaced dinosaurs that extend their necks as screwed passed to signal how much they liked me with beak clicking. Those f'n things are nasty man. I've also had to skid to a stop over a moose once, 6 pt teenage male I'm guessing. Stood in the middle of the path looking at me like a painting stares back you in a museum. It was maybe 6 and half foot tall at the shoulder, with moderate sized horn features. I clapped and yelled "git'" several times, but it just standing there gawking at me, either obtuse or not scared enough - not sure. I was once told by a park ranger that moose are probably the dumbest deer on the planet, and may in fact be the stupidest large warm blooded mammal there are, pound for pound. I don't know if that is true, but this one wouldn't budge. It finally just sort of lazy finished egressing across the path, hopped the wood guard -rail and broke sticks into the shadows of the forest. I'm wondering, 'no wonder they end up through windshields'

If anyone wants to be a nerd for a few minutes, this might interest - Take at look ( time sensitive ) at the ice motion over lower JB in this image ( upper right). https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-ca_s_ontario-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined It's obviously much slower than the clouds, but you can definitely make out the ice flow pushing S over the open bay area - probably forcing from that llv jet that's the equivalent of a BD hell up there. That's got to be a weird climate. I mean the sun is relatively high in sky even there. So it's like very hot sun, through 38 F air - yuck

Not to be a dink but it was pretty clear to me, given the background ambrosia of signals, that this 'heat storm's' prominence may fall outside the technology interquartile of solutions - gee, I wonder why I don't get read Lol. I just mean its extremeness might be escaping the models. This event appears to be a superposition of larger, more obscure wave mechanics, supplying constructive interference. Metaphor: the 22 year solar cycle, vs the 11 year cycle, timing together. The GWO/AAM stuff was suggested three weeks ago, actually, presaging the advent of subtropical ridge strengths in general. Meanwhile, right on top of the break-down of the seasonal lag stuff. I don't know if y'all have noticed, but there's been a propensity for late May to early July heat domes to bloom in recent years? That's the seasonal lag break-down; the last of the westerlies finally yields to more summer-like relaxed flow, and for a 2 .. 3 week window, you get a latent heat dump over the continent as the flow is passing back down from higher velocity states. And the ridges trend for a brief period. You sort of wonder, 'gee does this mean the summer from Hades', but no: what happens is that then decays, and the anomalies tend to terminate more toward the temperate summer state, with middling warmth, yet elevated CC-related DPs ( to keep low elevated and cheat our way to an above normal July and August) while France lands on the surface of the sun. I mean this is been a dependably repeating cycle - sarcasm aside. This time, it seems the GWO was collocated in time; it tended to make it more confidence for happening, for one, but the extremeness may also not be known until the we are on top of some of these days. I'm noticing the NBM experiment is launching Tuesday to 96, 21 over climate on D4 is telling. I'm not sure about the Thursday and Friday optimism - certainly would be welcome relief, and we hope! But, just the last 2 to 3 cycles of the EPS mean: I'm seeing signs that the flow out there may turn more like 'sagging' over eastern N/A, as opposed to really being an aggressively 'carving' out Maritime trough like some previous guidance.

It came through this region of Mass around 7:30 am ... The wind awoke me. We never saw a drop of rain because the system was dying ...it came through eastern NE as a wind pulse ...some spritz drops and lot of dust and dramatic arcus debris structures in the sky. But, I saw a rope funnel extending almost all the way to the ground whisking by over the distant hills. 'Gustnado' classic. Pretty cool. That day was supposed to be close to 100, but we stopped at 92 ...no doubt because the thing processes the shit out of the atmosphere.

Time sensy but it is interesting watching the upper cirrus deck fan off and expose the lower el CBs https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The last time we headlined heat close to, or meeting that caliber, it was suppressed beneath the 40th parallel across the country back in the summer of 2012 I believe it was. That was the heat that broke with the huge Derecho, that roared from your neck of the woods to the Mid Atlantic. Otherwise, we have not headlined the heat like France/Spain and the front slope of the Urals, Australia, or that crazy heat in London recently that, relative to their climo, may have been above anything we've seen here. These other areas may simply be more prone do to other factors, geography, etc. Or, we are overdue to join the global warming party - lol. I mean the models predict these increasing frequencies with heat waves. It seems we are always putting up above normal temps here from Indiana to New England in recent decade, without it being trophy material - interesting.

My father was living in Kalamazoo Michigan in that era - southern tier of the state. It wasn't just Chicago - population density will tend to win that debate. But Indianapolis back to Springfield IL, up through Minn/Wisc and all over Ohio and the rest of Michigan took that one unrelenting for 5 days. He's extolled to me in the past, he did not see a bank thermometer ( remember they used to have those lol ) less than 107 F during three days of that, and no night fell below 84 F. He said it was routinely mid 90s by 10 am. I mean we have this sort of index finger rule around here, '90 by 9' if you wanna make a hundo. 'Nother one is '10 after 10' Both seem to work reasonably well for unadulterated heating. Imagine clearing these in principle by 7:55 in the morning. I've seen this before. It's almost like the atmosphere is so sensitively ready to take off that the temp starts rising with the daylight that precedes sun rays tipping over the dawn. You can actually see it, 6:12 am and the temp is up 2, etc It almost seemed that could not get hotter? It was as though it was parametrically situated to be hotter, but the sun and latitude simply couldn't find the radiative power to get the temp up any higher. Maybe. But bank thermometers - heh. Either way it was probably a buck-3, three days running anyway and probably more - The coup de gras? Dp was 76!

who in here was alive during the apocalypse Chicago summer of 1995 ? Tell me again, how this should not be rated as a natural/national disaster - " The 1995 Chicago heat wave led to 739 heat-related deaths in Chicago over a period of five days.[1] Most of the victims of the heat wave were elderly poor residents of the city, who could not afford air conditioning and did not open windows or sleep outside for fear of crime.[2] The heat wave also heavily impacted the wider Midwestern region, with additional deaths in both St. Louis, Missouri[3] and Milwaukee, Wisconsin.[4] " -c/o https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Chicago_heat_wave

By the way ...re the ridiculous alien banter - granted, it may just be 'banter' but no - this man echoes precisely what we've already discussed, in this social media, https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2021/06/04/ufo-sightings-china-hakeem-oluseyi-intv-newday-vpx.cnn over the last couple of months. In my own words I wrote, the Military is merely admitting to UFO's ; the are not saying they are aliens. People tend to conflate those two aspects - which CNN knew all along ( digressing here..), and now that they have made their profits off leveraging that 'social engineering' tactically, they are suddenly willing to surface these interviews.

Yeah.. neglected/forgot/didn't see the urgency in following up on this one, heh. I originally idealized a marginal sort of interest for yesterday - but yesterday turned out toxic to lift with a diffused warm boundary offering ample CIN at 700 mb, while the underbelly couldn't get much sun to cook the earth. More DP today though, an we're splashing sun - we'll see. I just want crispy edge towers to gawk at - not asking for much. Part of the issue is the whole atmosphere is also gradually being offset by a rising heights in every direction, as the super synoptic ridge signal begins GWO-ing through the hemisphere.

(Media + profit)/2 = no truth... ...ever I'm just agreeing with you in blunt format here. I mused a while ago, well months and months ago, and probably years ago before that, too: the day that the IMC ( "Industrial Media Complex" ) figured out how to turn thumb swipes, mouse clicks, and T.V. channel pings, into economic motion, we've been living in a re-imagined universe You know, there is no burning bush or booming voice from the sky instructing anything we do. It is all contrived - period. Folks in general, the vast, vast majority, don't really understand that, and that reality exists actually outside the cinema of humanity- a theme that is self-chosen and executed. all of it. Geologic and extra-terrestrial threats ( no not aliens, god forbid! but like super volcanoes, solar storms and comet impacts - ), these events do not happen - typically - in the scales of a single life time. This world really is a utopian oasis against a proven, observable firmament festooned with hostile worlds and calamities. But we turn on the news, an invention created entirely by humanity, and of course it is this steady diet of unavoidable thumb swipes, mouse clicks or TV channel changing, or you'll be soooorrrrry lol The funny irony about that geological shit is ... humanity is a geological force now, one that IS, regardless of any belief, quantifiable and reproducible in science. Yet, the aspects observed in the environment and reproduced in intellect and experiment, that evince humanity's actual connection to the physical universe, those get denied. Those are ones that really do present the existential threats ( not just to us but is triggering a mass- extinction etc etc), and we stand around staring nonplussed when not outright denying.

Saturday, in the overnight NAM run went considerably warm(er) at New York and Boston ... Short rendition: - this looks like a 94 F, 21 Z temp at those locations as near as tomorrow, which accordingly means the abutting metro districts are rotisserie hotdogs. In fact, this is probably true out across the expanses of any mall towns out in the burbs of the coastal plain, too. There is ventilation, at least, as we see there > 15 kt wind at all intervals - so perhaps the DPs mix from 72 to 64 throughout the day ( or whatever the sounding allows.). Then it is unabated heat and plausible that machine guidance will slip beneath local 2-meter out through Tuesday thereafter. I could see this maxing in the upper 90s Mon or Tues, preferably NNE/BTV... but it's too close to count out NY and Boston. Longer rendition: These are 06z FOUS numbers for KBOS and KLGA for Saturday: 36000575044 -2198 082219 72 27 20 13 36000535037 -0597 112415 72 28 22 13 42000616447 -2394 082416 74 28 21 13 42000494939 01197 122518 73 29 22 14 48000434646 00500 102719 71 26 21 14 48000555023 00999 142618 71 25 22 14 Those bold numbers are the temperatures at the 980, 900 and 800 mb levels, from left to right. That 980 is well above the lowest sloped region of the sounding, where the 2-meter temperatures is approached sort of asymptotically; typical rule of thumb, at the end of that slope adds almost nothing at night, 3 to 5 C by sunnier day, to the lowest value. Example, 28 and 4 obviously = 32 C, or~ 90F (89.6), if the day's got good heating. ~92 down NYC. But* the wind in this product is trying to bend into the west late in the afternoon and into the early evening hours. This almost implies there could be late highs registered at these locations, between 5 and 6 pm. Also, the RH values also present in these FOUS numbers, implicating open sky with > 95% insolation bath; these 'rough' fixes for the 2-meter may need more like 5 C or even a 6 to account for urban concrete and street/'island' feed-backs. Saturday night is brutal in the urban centers and three-story packed neighborhoods that have lower income access ability to ventilation and cooling ( to be imaginatively specific... yikes!), may need circumstantial heat headlines. But 26 C, at 980 mb, at 2 am at Logan - that's probably the coveted 80 F low there. 78 anyway This heat wave ( which I do believe we will verify) is coming in sooner than we had originally seen modeled. This was always going to be a Monday through Wednesday ordeal, with the end week negotiable as a BD this and that began showing up. But now it appears the ballast of this heat may be centered on Monday and Tuesday, with the preceding Saturday and Sunday involved in it. Wednesday's heat nuts may get clipped - but, I'm also wondering if that pattern out there is still not settled. The Euro looks overly amplifying on that day, and in an odd twist, the 00z GFS is actually delaying the front on Wednesday to more like Wednesday evening, and with lingering mid level quasi EML probably keeping the sig ceilings sparse ..that would include Wednesday too. I think it is possible that we lose the BD aspect in future guidance layouts, and see this morph into a standard westerlies erosion of the heat event. We'll see. In fact, in a stricter sense of it, the Euro is not a backdoor front on this 00z run. It's governing mid level support is coming down at a rather steep angle in the 00z run - granted - but the attending surface front is actually just advecting SE as a normal kick.

Man Saturday lows may not get below 80 in the urban centers

The funny thing about the time travel Paradox is that there really is no paradox – that’s always just been something of myth that was easily sold and everybody in sci-fi bought into it and all these authors don’t even have it right. Quantum mechanics proves you cannot change the future by going back in time even if you change something in the past because of the uncertainty principle

77/66 here max but we had 50/50 sun

12z NAM solution roasts Saturday ...