Typhoon Tip

Yeah... this - for me - can be inferred by other modeling/means anyway... no problem with that assessment and notice - even though it is still just a notice and not porn yet. Again again again... the limitations in such a scenario are in the speed in which that happens. It can't meander on up. It has to move FAST Folks that need this diversion to make their lives worth shit ... really need to filter everything through that requirement first and not focus on the pretty illustrations of the modeling cinema like drug addicts carpet surfacing for a nugget of dystopian rush -

I lean (haha) toward suspicion with the entire Euro product- suite. Systemic limitation in performance - Not initializing right. ...seems anything after that is academically wrong

The turn of phrasing you cobble out is strange to me ... It's emotional - and I am a sociopath so I can't really understand that mode of thinking.... LOL Totally kidding. Seriously though, no - that shit doesn't matter. There is no 'mentally encountering untenable outcomes' - whatever that means. I suspect it is intended to mean 'taking place whether it fit with preconception or not'? I dunno, but there is only: Is there enough physics to support a cyclone or not - Nothing else. Now... 'peak climatology for shelf waters' yeeeeah, okay. If they are warmer than cooler, that "should" in principle play a factor. But that is real ambiguous in the physics, because I - personally - don't know of any science that outright evinces that 66 vs 70 vs 74 vs 78 are better in that order, for maintaining systemic integrity of tropical cyclones that egress their supporting environment and set out upon their Death Journey like a Hopi octogenarian

wouldn't take much tho - If by mere subtle total mechanical inertia in the surrounding synoptic forcing, sending Henri on up, were to occur, that sending may speed up by a little. It could just be enough - so obviously, in assessing the impact spectrum would be the speed of Henri's motion. More gets more cyclone-winds to bend tree tops ..etc. Also, as others are undoubtedly focused on like a 17-year old boy on a v-cut prom date's reveal, the run to run trend has been gaining westerly longitude. If it comes another 100 miles at verification and speeds up by 10 mph - unusual for how it does so in total synoptic space or not, that would get more interesting really fast.

Okay... correction 1: GFS does not actually strengthen Henri as it approaches the S. Coast and passes over the shelf waters S of LI. It is in fact, weakening, as it should, while passing the cyclone over those cold waters. That helps engender confidence that it is physically handling the total manifold of environmental factors in the intensity aspects. However, I can aver with confidence that TC's in the weakening phase - such that the GFS's recent two cycles does so spanning some 12 hours worth - typically lift their "storm" ferocity above the land-based boundary layer. It is very necessary for storm enthusiasts to have these moving very fast as they approach, quite literally because they do not have enough time to do that weakening prior to impacting land. This system is moving too slowly based on that climate... It will suck GIANT ballz for deterministic weather forecasters because now we get into residuals ...like still flooding rains and tor spins.

The Euro continues to just be perplexingly bad with tropical handling ... wow. It initialized Henri in the 00z around 1012 mb ... hello - The GFS was almost spot on, by the way. Not that anyone asked me but .. I don't believe the Euro can be trusted over anywhere between Bermuda, Cape Hatteras, and Cape Cod triangulum. It's paltry entity modulation does not seem realistic when comparing ( observable/favorable synoptic parametrics + other typically better performing modeling sources) / 2 In short: I would take a weaker system than the GFS but much more identity than the Euro, and except that the track is very anomalous and therefore some skepticism wrt to whether that aspect is being handled properly is required. In length: that said, I don't know if I would trust the very intenser modeling choices. This is an unusual track ... I'll give you that. But TC physics absolutely require a specific sounding that quasi-couples 79.5+ F SST with the lower tropospheric pseudo-adiabatic instability. They are designed by nature to release water stored thermal energy to the atmosphere - the process really is a remarkable aspect of Earth's budgeting ...etc..etc.. 70 F ( at best ..) spanning some 300 miles between the N interface with the Gulf Stream and Cape Cod, ain't it. That is physically impossible as a TC maintenance. I am therefore suspect in how/why the GFS strengthens Henri when passing over those cooler waters. Perhaps this thing is getting some sort of anomalous boost? I don't know... it could have some crazy inflow jet that it "umbilical" while diffluence over the NE upper troposphere associated with anticyclonic divergence ESE of Maine/NS ... Very speculative/imaginative to try and explain why the GFS does that. I think it is also possible that the modelers did this on purpose to f'k with and ultimate relish in Schadenfreude watching those that have no self control ... wind up like a top and spin way faster than this thing ever has any hope to.... LOL j/k

Looking at these 00z NAM numbers … the NAM must be way west.

Yup. I’ve been posting about the ‘heat soaking’ .. as in up, lending to higher than average hydrostatic hgts. It’s almost weird to see a high temperature of 84 and a dewpoint, 76, with overing non-hydrostatic Heights closing in on 600 dam. That night ends up +10

Well … “slow” in that context doesn’t just mean rate - kind of a loaded adjective I suppose. It’s slow enough to quell urgency. It’s part of the capacitance to reasoning in this whole matter that I was mentioning above… People who don’t perceive threat within their plane of sight - that is too slow for them to register it as a threat. The psychology of this thing is actually quite a bit as complex as the problem being conveyed The PR specialists charged to bring the science to light in public awareness are not very good at it either

Chill I asked a simple question: what was your point in making that post-I’ll give you another chance, do you have one. I wasn’t seeking conflict; it looks like it’s just a chart

I wonder how bad the rains were on Jamaica jesus

Merrimack watershed ...hm

What's the mid tropospheric theta-e gradient ( z-coordinate ) like? In other words, is it a tropical like sounding? I'm wondering if this is sort of a quasi Bahama-blue, with skinny turrets the line up in streets over top warm nimbus

Among other aspects of deception ... and: The nocturnal temperatures are just as crucial in the weight of a seasonal anomaly total. In the summers, those actually tend to be more positive relative to average inherited climate minimums, than do the day time high temperature departures relative to climate for those. As has been outlined in climate reports spanning the last 10 years out of IPCC etc... nocturnal temperatures have actually been responsible for the greatest departures, probably owning to the physics of specific heat in H20. It is over 4X's greater in capacitance for thermal density than sere air - which this later is never going to be possible on Earth. But the point is, more WV is going to elevate the low temperatures more so than less WV, which to global warming concern means ... we are storing more WV in the air. Morning temperatures than have 'higher launch' points, such that as the solar crest sweeps across the land, there can be a synergistic feed-back where the starting point helps ( think momentum from the previous day ....), send the temp soaring, reaching temperatures that seem to exceed the leading parametric/synoptic indicators. This can mix into the lower tropospheric circulation modes where it is then circulated to other regions, like the Pacific NW, that then have unique topographies that feed-back positively even more. These sort of nuanced, 'rogue' event heat waves then surpass the 'standard seasonal' heat waves. Exactly what we saw in the Pac NW, also precisely what the previoius IPCC report meant when they mentioned the 'synergistic heat wave effect.' This language and these facets are not available to the minds of many deniers? no fault to them - some can't get it, because some simply lack the ability to do so. Unfortunately, the physics of GW doesn't play compassionate forgiveness to stupidity, either. part of the catch-22 ... Human ingenuity has parlayed to 7.5+ billion population that drags along a population quota too weighty to stop in a lot of ways. They'll follow suit when they stop eating and get hungry, by then, ...is it too late? I have friends at M.I.T. and N.E. University, and they agree - the GW crisis and climate change is as much a sociological problem as it is a geophysical one.

oh, sorry Kev' shit I thought you were talking about the "Henri" out there... Yeah, depends on how much of Fred's still in tact as far as mechanics go ...but a track like that NAM solution would be interesting for the old low scale rotation

May sound odd? but that's my favorite kind of flooding

There are three forms of climate deniers from my experience in dealing with them: -- can't believe it; the specter is too grand to face; the complexities, too much and is mentally untenable, so it can't be true when combining all these predicates. -- morally feckless at best, but probably just a form of evading psychosis using either lies to cover fact, or deliberate misrepresentation of small subsets that strategically belies the surrounding reality, all of which so as to not have to face an unsettling truth - there is varied and textured reasons for not wanting to face that reality. -- healthy skepticism; this form of denier is rarefying as the evidence/empirical signs of the times forces their hand. I don't personally have a problem with this group. In a time of media sensationalism run amok - from a bully pulpit that has NO morality - we need these along the way. Not sure why your post triggered me to want to outline this way... but perhaps it is because that charts does strike me as that second bullet point agenda. In the end, people deny because the can. Again again again...the specter of CC is a slow moving monster, so slow in fact that it does not register to the observer, until the observer has to forcibly be acknowledging. That, unfortunately, is a destiny that nears the grave.

Yeah lol, taking something close enough to impact at all should 'make sense' - go wonder. No matter what, that makes sense - Kidding, but these solutions that creep a TC N like that don't typically pan out. Just sayn'

Okay, is there a point being made here - LOL

mm, indeed - and while I don't disagree, I would advance the - sort of .. - hypocrisy that corporations deliver a product to a demand. So that makes Humanities that supple from them almost as culpable. What perhaps saves their morality by a pubic hair, is that they may not know any better. They are provisionally dependent upon the Industrial bubble of convenience - this was a easy transition over the temporal boundary in human history, because let's face it, they were sacrificing pestilence and starvation for what must have been a utopia and life by comparison. Subsequent generations are simply know no other means. So in these senses, that shits the ballast of onus on the part of the corporations - "Great power brings great responsibility," leaps to mind. It's an interesting philosophical debate. But is side it perhaps 99::1 in the early days of Industrialization, to perhaps 70::30 ... 60:40, and on and so on, shifting ratios as public enlightenment to a large manifold of consequences should require diverging from the teat - so to speak. This latter facet is a whole 'nother sociological problem with momentum .. I wrote about that a while ago above..

https://phys.org/news/2021-08-climate-scientist-bad.html Peter Huybers Bio and perhaps citations, may be found here: https://eps.harvard.edu/people/peter-huybers He has a nice way of outlining the perils of CC in terms and metaphor that is probably more tenable to the average populate. Unlike me LOL ... Anyway, I particularly like the this paragraph: "....Studies indicate that the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is irreversible in the sense that, after the ice sheet melts, it would not regrow even if we otherwise returned the climate to pre-industrial conditions. The ice sheet is a vestige of a colder climate deeper in Earth's past that is maintained, crucially, by high rates of accumulation on its flanks and cold temperatures atop that its own height affords. In this sense, the melting of Greenland and the consequent rising of sea level are irreversible...." I suspect this is true the vaster array of Global environmental systems, where they are only deceptively linearly related to global warming. In other words, cool it back down, they can't return to normal because it is not just a matter of that one factor. Whether the interview/re-draft of it intend to or not, one such region is that western end of Antarctica - if that one succumbs ... uh, riiight - What makes this particularly scary - to me - is that those hereditary base-lines may be required for maintenance of most species living. This connects the dots, quite plausibly, with the Biological science aversion, that we are in fact entering/entered a mass-extinction event, already. For example, take this turn of phrase from the same article: ".. in describing melting of permafrost as well as the warming, acidification, and deoxygenation of the ocean..." I personally began warning of this years ago, that if we tip the oceanic chemistry to a point where there is a phyto-plankton ecological collapse, that is roughly 33% of oxygen fixing for the atmosphere above the oceans. Larger organisms require oxygen? The reason dragon flies were the size of kites during the Jurassic, was because the oxygen they absorbed through their skin was enough to do so. That's not a path a species that breaths air really wants to go down ... Time and science is consummately revealing that these systems are more complex than previous generations of study understood. Part of that complexity is that they are also often intertwined, quasi if not totally codependent. Therefore, as one is teetering with finger tips to hold on while the heredity of past climate and chemistries are eroding, when they let go ... the notion of the cascade collapse becomes academic. These geological eras move at invisibly slow paces, unrelentingly, beneath the qualia of the common observer. Even though we are seeing changes now, the momentum was gathering decades ago when there was really no way to see the change. I have opined about this at length in the distant past - the problem that exist in climate change vs public awareness/urgency, is that it could not be physically registered during the earlier phases of the predictions. It had no corporeal-based advocate. You don't feel, see, smell, taste or touch it ... Human beings need these tactile "proofs" in the everyday assessment of reality - it's true in all biology. We have higher order intelligence, but it's at conflict with these senses, whenever the abstraction of esoteric math isn't seen. One irony of our evolution is that we both can predict by powers of that higher intellect, but don't believe it ... Until time runs out, and that psychology only gets it when we are 'seeing the light'

Yet this summer's left some points on the field - perhaps to Kevin's chagrin. I keep seeing this ... a kind of quasi - Kalvin Hemholtz. The band of the seasonal continental conveyor is pushed N of normal and it's curling around and pooling/ ...tendency therein, of 850 mb cooler air in the OV I've been seeing this with increasing frequency in the past 5 to 7 summers, but this year it has been more common than any priors. We are not in the heat this year despite those June numbers ( I mean that euphemistically - it could have been worse and in some sense perhaps should have been but the circulation plague above is folding over and islanding off D.C. to protect policy makers from first hand GW experience ...LOL). In fact, that June heat was almost entirely solar drive ( being under the perennial apex ), with huge bloated if not historic geopotential heights offering nearly unlimited hydrostatic diurnal expansion. So we made the mid 90s with 594+ hgts? I know it sounds like a sacrilege to describe the hottest June on record that way, but .... that I argue was more based upon elevated DPs and night time mins, and pattern persistence, more so than cresting high temps in the VIP party. We've made mid 90s heat waves out of 582 dam in the past. I noticed this back in June ... we never really got a real Sonoran/western heat injection into this thing.

"stop the covid talk" ? ha, what happened while I was gone - I mean, I'm not complainin' or nothin' ... 'bout time really. But for morbid -

yup... (bold) Firstly, I am also being hyperbolic in jest to a goodly dosing in that - haha. I'm about as cynical these days with the weather as I am with sociological impacts of the 7.5 billion assholes effectively influencing that force; but don't ask me to describe how I really feel. Anyway, in more rational prose ... eh hm, the ENSO may still be useful. But how much? I suspect ( strongly ) that its ability to influence is being muted. I wholeheartedly agree that it is too much in a lot of this stuff/practice. The problem is just like I have said so often in the past but have since given up: The Hadley Cell is expanded and continues to do so ( primer of newbs: 5.2: Modes of Variability: Past and Projected Changes; 5.2.1 Width of the Tropics and Global Circulation; https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/ ). That expansion is not my idea. It is empirically observed and scienced everywhere except apparently in the readers of this forum, who btw seem more interested in playing fantasies of yore, as though climate's heredity is immovable and would rather make jokes about the former. F.u. d-heads... Go vote Trump while your at it. But it has moved N and its envelope engulfs the latitudes of the previous climate ... before the hockey-sticking of jolt warming began in earnest around the time of that 'ceremonial beginning-of-the-end super NINO' of 1998 ( maybe James was onto something ). This has happened while the polar domains still have enough lower geopotential heights that ... blah blah, flights from Japan to Frisco, or LGA to Hethro seem like a free ride. The HC is subsuming and engulfing those. In fact, the HC is probably culpable in the enhanced easterly jet at lower latitudes that is also observed. I am willing to posit that the new base-state is a modest La Nina when comparing/using previous climate -base as mode determination. ...interesting. In that sense, this La Nina stuff we are measuring is actually more the new neutral. ... It's interesting... there are Global systemic changes that are exceeding the single human life-time, and even within life-time events where/whence science has a chance to go through the scientific rigor. By the time the observations made, the data is gathered, and the mechanics "precipitate" ( always intend to annoy with puns ... ) out, the system has moved on to another state. Or, it is causing some events to take place that redirect attention...etc... It's basically as though we are in a slow-moving climate bomb that has detonated already. But my point and hypothesis is/was going to be, when the HC began to expand beyond where the MJO and the ENSO and the MEI used to interface/gradient against the westerlies, that changes the physics in how those fields can force the wave mechanics. If one cannot get their heads around that, they should just watch the weather channel instead. Then, yeah...I suppose increasing conflagration at global scales .. uh, fires... solar cycles in the 'super min' ... jesus. We are supposed to be a Arctic, multi-decade oscillation that favors lowering modes. But that becomes skewed and screwed up because the speeding hemisphere causes the AO to rise because it it is intrinsically/physically offsetting slower PV speeds and blocking. That's sort of a strong duh-hint to why we see the blocking waiting to March/April - maybe. ...