Typhoon Tip

I sort of agree ... But, it would look more fairly "robust" imh, if it did not appear like a comet due to shear. I've seen Caribbean menaces on satellite with insidious inky black to pink vomit tops spread out over apocalyptic spans ... Plane gets in there, 45 kts, mostly in the N side or something. I mean those examples don't necessitate a diagnosis now, no. Lol.. Point is, let us not beguile for these satellite cinemas... They to often lie. That said, what I do agree or nod to that, is the aspect longevity in the face of hostile incurring force of stress. Whether one looks at a loop from 36 hours ago or now, they couldn't really tell them apart. It's been exceptionally stable in it's ability to hold in there ... 65 or 70 mph and 996-like pressure well, regardless of tilted chimney and appearing like seaweed wrapping backward around a tide current. That is kind of a 'robustness' in its own right, really... But this also leaps an anecdotal sort of observation to mind. It's been discussed in all ranks. It's the notion that systems that 'weather' ( pun that has no choice but said... Now that's an interesting pun ) hostility and then encounter favorable environments later on, tend to respond and flower and go nuts more proficiently ...

Some of us have been attempting to keep that more focused ... I ( and anyone else that may have...) spoke at length about the similarities to Sandy, namely: -NAO U/A trough ... the interaction between these two is the entire conductor in orchestrating the destiny of Henri's song. As Sandy demoed in the models, ...they were vastly too far N and E all along, and subsequently correct the "left hook" as it's coined, farther and farther SW. At first, in the guidance, the consensus was impressive to even pick it up - we can be amazed by just that alone... - but it had it deviating back to a N track E of Maine. Then, D 10 -- D7 it was into Maine ... then SNE, then NYC... ultimately, land fall was near Cape May NJ ( or thereabouts...). Granted, the -NAO blocking structures, as well as the trough, ...are not as anomalously strong as that example. Still, I am noting a definitive correction in the amount of hooking left, and it may be limitation do to beta-drift at extended leads, where the models can't really drive a cyclonic rotation against the Coriolis parameter and see the amount of that westward turn - speculative in these latter aspects. I trip into the NY Bite is certainly on the table. As I opined with passion a few moments ago ...that might be very very bad. heh... I wonder how much a city/region, that really is a small sub-country, can take, before a migration event takes place. It's got a tongue-in-cheek humor but for f' sake, 911 ... Sandy ... Pandemic ... and should this drill a Category 2/3 direct ( keeping in mind, Sandy's surge into the understructure of the city was an indirect result! ) surge ... I could almost imagine that becomes a spooked out creep hovel of dystopian fears and people throw hands... resiliency mystique or not, get me the fuggoutta 'eer

This may be the storm that triggers the first North America, 'climate change' attributed diaspora of population out of a geographical region. Namely, ... NYC ( California is next but ..that's probably more suited to the climate forum) Sandy literally filled the subways of lower Manhattan. Video sent homages of a doom's day species migration - think skies filled with fleeing birds, Hollywood trope. But it wasn't in the sky - it was under foot. Rats! Eeew ... flooding up stairwells ( saw video ), proverbially at the same rate the water fell over the top step, rolling over each subsequent like a class- 4 rapids. That UKMET solution from last 0z last night. That appearance connotes a far worse than Sandy scenario to me. The model seems to want Cat 2 .. ( maybe 3 can be inferred by that weird flop-high tendency that biases guidance all the damn time...) over a long enough period to really not f*ck around with just being close to surge doming - that water WILL come in en masse, bee-line and targeted direct, not indirect like Sandy did. That region, the geographic "bite" layout of upper NJ and western L.I., has never really experienced the full geological possibility it has dodged for the last 200 years: a full bird categoried monster hooking the eye over Central Park. That's ...almost indescribably bad if that happens. Beyond 'bundamental' insanity. But wait, they built 'The Battery' after Sandy - okay...

I'm currently in the past, 9 hours ago, for having traveled in the slumber machine ... but two schools of thought on that. I was thinking about this yesterday. Does this thing have to count in those statistical curves? No two origins and subsequent synoptic track drivers ( meaning synoptic circulation modes in the latter sense ...) are going to be exactly the same. However, typically these are at least cousins to the CV long track. With -NAO timed well, then a trough of at least moderate amplitude approaches from 100 W, that's the precarious design that gets us our 1500 post teeming crack highs ... - LOL. But this? This is unique. We have that -NAO part ( which is interesting...), albeit modestly negative... it is very W/SW biased in the blocking. With a subtle but crucially timed amplitude rolling cyclonically overtop from Montreal to S of NS, while Henri is then directed N underneath. The entire domain over eastern N/A and the western Atlantic Basic is in a kind of implied cyclonic rotation that is going to direct as such... There is even a trough approaching from the W, but... both these features are weaker compared to the 'classical' amplitudes found in the above reference. But the one aspect completely blows the classical model out of the water - ...there's a semblance of a pun there... - is the origin. An MCS remnant that drifts S through the lower Maritime. Traveling some 1500 naut mile as it mutates, it then curls back W literally turning into a tropical cyclone. Blah blah gets caught under said block... That entire circulation manifold and timing over our hemisphere that did all this dance is really a challenge to anyone to find an analog ( not for argument sake, just because it's fascinating) The impetus in asking is because that uniqueness may stand apart from the 30-year.

I know it. Fer fk sake this year

-NAO ftw Jesus

Maybe it beats mosquitoes talks

Little obscure but I’ve never seen this before 24 hours of easterly fetch coming into Logan and the hydrostatic hgts never fall below 575 dm. extraordinary

I’ll tell ya … should this meaningfully impact the region … it’ll be the only one that ever did so like this. you’ll have the standard paradigm where 90 % fit in … a smattering of outliers, than this one out there all alone. I really don’t think this is ever happened in totality - not synoptically in how those things interact with each other and causes things to happen - none of it

I just think the cyclostrophic disk et al might get lifted over the top of the stabler oceanic boundary layer residing over the relatively colder shelf waters; then it becomes a wildcard weather mixes back down over land - assuming it gets that far nw and over ORH etc Whatever it’s gonna be very velocity Sheard so I think tornadoes could be enhanced in a situation like this this

Seems like at least some shift should be considered yeah. Interesting. I keep coming back to Sandy and how those models had to shift left; the situation similarly although it was much more demonstrative back then. What started out turning left in Maine in the models ended up turning left into New Jersey… Now this time the U/A is not that strong and the block is also a weaker. These situations are so anomalous I don’t think models are really going to handle it very well.

They’re gonna enter PR mode soon and that’s when the flop is always high

It looks the same to me. I mean they may give it the nod next advisory but it looks like the shears still limiting matters.

Right 60+ hours it’s moving into a region where it has to weaken.

Is anyone taking the 18z NAM solution ... hello - any takers... Thought so

First shot across the bow autumn jet sweeping across the gaga range of the GFS right on time ...

Meanwhile .... https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/19/weather/greenland-summit-rain-climate-change/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/19/weather/greenland-summit-rain-climate-change/index.html

Lol,... I read this recent exchange snickering because 'Nope, doesn't mean you get to have a hurricane' No but I was thinking it'll end up in the same place, just taking a broader parabolic motion as thought it was a course chosen for greatest regret.

I know what you mean but that's lol - like, it's out in the ocean: 'bit of a hyrdo concern over the western side'

Yeah I really see this as 50/50 for more and less impact at all really - still. ... Summer is boring - it is. I get it. Folks that really have a kind of affinity for seeing mayhem implied in the model movies ... probably could use good ass whoopin' to keep them from red-eyed padded-cell rocking, because it is otherwise a long ass haul until anything resembling that sort of drama can manifest otherwise. Maybe we could coax Yellowstone into a mass -extinction event... Who's with me! No but it could go either way and it really seems to me that we need this to get west more before we'll see a better consensus -

Forget it - you can't penetrate the withdraw shakes with reason and logic LOL

Not affecting my mood tho - different agenda

Y'all's clearly exhibiting drug addiction-like behavior with these model cinemas - you don't get that drama... the mood withdraw is HIlarious

Beautiful out there now ... That heavy rains pushed off and we're sort of left in this tropical bath with splashes of sun and interesting cloud-scapes. It's not 'hot' yet, so it's really kind of soothing. Fred's guts - In a symbolic way it's kind of like it laid a foundation perhaps -