Typhoon Tip

Mm hm

Too many people... that's all - stop f'ing and making babies when there are 7.5 billion walking petri-dishes. pathogenicity 101: remove targets ...spread stops, immediately.

agreed - although I'd change 'I'm' to 'everyone', NE of NYC... basically ... your odds improve down around SW zones, naturally ranging much lower ... Fryeburg Maine, at getting to swim in the warm end of the swimming pool with the cool kids. ...and hot chicks, the one's that when you smell lilacs in the spring for some reason spark images of - ...the girl of your dreams is in that clique. She pretty much despises you, almost as though because you love her. See ...you have to understand, she hails from an "enmeshed family" syndrome. Known is psychology vernacular as "psychic incest," this is hidden, insidious detriment - often a result of 'over-affectionating' - it can severely interfere if not destroy one's own identity development over the course of their upbringing ... As adults these types may manifest many problems facilitating ...if even 'understanding' others in an empathic sense; they are often terrified of losing what fragile identity they have mustered after leaving the nest, within any normal, healthy adult relationships. The person responsible, was her father, who died when in her late adolescence, stranding her on a proverbially emptied island, ironically .. in a sea of souls. Embroiled within her bond to him, she was gutted when he left. She has no ability to RAVE with an another human being as an adult because of it all... But you you still lover her anyway .. because you did shared so many experiences and personal aspects together. Whether she really is aware or not, the reveals that were given along the way ... were quite intimate. They just didn't go downstairs. - that's what it is like on this side of that Wednesday boundary - we have "boundary" issues ... We watch her have meaningless sex from afar, yet she won't touch you ...the one she really actually could love...

Okay... The NAM could be just be convective sensitive... overrunning convection complex over S Ontario rips it across Upstate NYduring Wed, mid day ... If that happens it probably would send a mid and upper deck exhaust plume over central and SNE.. Those things also suppresses boundaries S. Seems to be what the NAM's doing. It could be wrong with the convection, but it could be right. Remove that featuring ...the boundary may fragile waft farther NE on Wed ... Thursday looks interesting for warm sector to N NH and possible convection ... 80/67 crispies

12z 32km NAM is classic put-house-up-for-sale-and-move-away-from-this-climate-anus material ... Has Lifted Index down to -3 over LGA, and +9 over BOS Wednesday afternoon. Seriously though... as I get older, I'm losing my winter fascination - I know ... I know. This may not be shared as a personal perspective with very many others in this particular social media depot. But I'm getting increasingly more indifferent to winter shenanigans .. and more so embracing of that evil other end of the weather types ( lol ), it just makes me loathe this geomorphological belated seasonal change bs that happens in New England.

I see where the Pope is coming from tho - In the traditional sense that is ... I mean if going with the sort of 'standard' application of telecon spread ... there is no such thing as global warming any more and we are in fact about to freeze over and turn the Earth into a redux of the Cryogenian Epoch ... But, the telecon correlations are shakier heading toward May. That's seasonal climatology suggesting that. With the flow showing present signs of R-wave entropy ( so yeah..) .. that should skew the assumption/application. So this raging boner phase 8 MJO could be less mechanically forcing - ... I'm not sure the MJO will transmit that signal through hemisphere because of the wave signature obscuring. The MJO has really been taking a back seat in my estimation, in recent years for that matter. I hypothesize there may be a relationship to the CC -related Hadley Cell expansion, and the speeding velocity anomalies and is mucking with the R-wave distributions ... complicated.

Not sure about the temps per se ..but could be the case in general. The pike more or less delineating ... I could see HFD going partly cloud with a T spike ... and KFIT that same hour ...circa 18 to 21Z in the afternoon, is 19 F cooler with still air rhea. The other aspect is convection? I'm wondering if there may be some TCU in the region, elevated bases training ESE along Rt 2 and maybe more SB CAPE in CT. Trick is that the guidance is nebulous or 'blurry' about where the boundary situates. The flow off the deck is paralleling the front as opposed to the ridge being stronger and having it move the warm front bodily through like the guidance suggested a few days ago. And this is May in butt-bone New England in spring...and any time you give any excuse imagined to make the models wrong about warmth getting this far NE ... reality always takes advantage of that... Lol - little frustration there, tongue-in-cheek. But sufficed it is to say ...the eastern ends of warm fronts sag or stall when the flow is light over top and tending to parallel.

Yeah... the models have been trying to sneak to shit look into the mid week ever since they [apparently ] lied last Thursday about the big warm up. Every run... insidiously eroding 1.1 dm of heights and thickness less ...and ridge geometry nuances... Now, Wednesday could end up the coldest day of the week - ironically .. - by virtue of the fact that the wfront stalls near NYC and waves of clouds and soothing cool rain flop over in mocking pulses of the original outlook. It does that a lot in spring here too... the opposite land affect - Take a d7 look and there's an interestingly negative correlation that is larger than anywhere else in the world to make the models exactly wrong

Philosophically this seems weird to me ... this type of 'requirement,' to that sort of 'invited setting.' I mean they invited us - . It's not our fault these people love each other. "Come and admire us in our moment upon the sanctimonious stage. And in so admiration and arrested in your unworthy awe if it all... show your adulation by dog tagging yourself with rabies dates.... you unworthy filthy plebes." Lol... I mean it's not all that of course ... I don't like the smell of it. It's like why not wait until the shit settles ...? I mean we're what, 30% full and 60% partially vaccinated in the U.S. ?... Just f'n wait a couple more months. Don't force it when doing so means there has to be this awkward pall hanging over a reception. I can see it now...donned in masks, requiring distancing - WTF! Weddings and the afterglow are diametrically against that. They are supposed to be celebrating F V C K I N G ... I dunno. Maybe there's a fetish niche for banging with a mask on from six feet away - that'd be a neat trick. I mean get married in the fall for f sake - it's got to be now ...? Before we either have herd immunity - don't get me started on the 'herd mentality' ... - or, before these non vax caved in brain boxes have had a chance to die off leaving those immuned to flourish without their idiocy polluting the genomic future of our species.

Imho it depends on where that quasi stationary warm frontal boundary aligns. Recent American runs finagling the boundary not truly coming through. The NAM has an 18 to 21Z Tuesday warm front stalled from Upstate NY to NYC and holds it there through 12z Wednesday... It even smatters cool side QPF on WNW tranjectory ... classic walling off scenario, so that will sand off the warm air from ever getting NE of the Hudson Valley if/when a set up like that .. seen it a billion times. How to artful f-up a warm signal in the spring, a story written by the great misery Author, New England Haven't looked very closely at the foreign guidance ... pretty annoyed watching the mid week warm up being eroded from us, run by run by run as if we can't see it happening. Lol.. I mean, just make it cold and stop fuggin around already

perspective ... this rain is paltry though - ...in terms of a 'seasonal standard deviation' event, this is lower than normal rain output for this time of year and system. In a relative sense I'm not sure the anti-steiners win in this competition - LOL ... But I'm not in the competition - I frankly hoped it would rain 3" ... --------------------------------------------------------------- If this were winter ... in 1994, that MJO signal mapped over a rising PNA ...whilst the NAO remains negative? That would be justification for a thread ...the title of which reads something like, "Backyards will go great distances toward correcting any perceived seasonal snow fall deficits." Unfortunately, being on the cusp of April and May means all the misery less than snow as the most probably outcome. You know .. in some philosophic way ... May really could be construed as the cruelest month - I mean April is so automatically a reason to hate God, there really should be no expectation beyond Hades anyway... But May 2005 says it all. No one has ever experienced an April as cruel as May 2005, not anyway that can be deemed intellectually or emotionally responsible and lucid as sane being - Now ... I don't know what the indices were doing in the months/weeks/ .. days leading that 12 days of forced shit eating that year, but if one were to reconstruct what they might have looked like ... we should be heading for a redux. The upshot here is that the indices' overall correlations are breaking down, so ... it doesn't have to necessarily imply that with lots of confidence.

Everywhere I look reminds me of her ...

Yeah ..still a mild run ... still looks spring-like mild and actually D7-10 looks warm again with that attempt at continental warm sector... It's actually a weird run. It did correct for that absurd out of nowhere 500 mb bomb it had on the 00z, but still looks too happy to drive a jet max SE from N. of the Lakes without having much previous day impetus to extrapolate from - just inserts it... It's probably overdone in and of itself there. That said, the whole thing could still be fragile if the Pacific were ever to respond to the MJO thing ... It may not - seasonal R-wave discontinuity may trunk that signal from transmitting.

Mm... Icon is similar... starting to get these out-of-nowhere cold signals. I warned y'all.. That MJO/PNA coupling may not be done harassing ... I'm sure the Euro will reverse now tho LOL

GGEM goes from 80 to 40's in a driving cat paw nor'easter in 30 hours ...

So what's the grousing vector here ? people want, or don't want - lol. Personally I'd rather we get 4" of basin lube for spring ...

Some form of Boxer with Border Collie - ...spit ballin'

it's funny ..I was just asking this question in my mind and I'm wondering .... there may be a lot more self resolved incidences, just not detected? It was dubbed in the early months of this thing as "self-resolved" .. kind of a catch-all for those that may be 'walking covid-cases'. I mean it's Just a thought - ...anyone that has had a sniffle and mild sinus headache that resolved inside of 2 or 3 days of it, but not so harsh that they'd even remember ...let alone suspect it as part of the C-19 ...may have actually had it. Or, some were asymptomatic, but maybe they were still going through some sort of partial immune adaptation that is incomplete.. wouldn't these 'walking' cases qualify ? I think I had this a year ago... It was a month before the WHO released their reunion album ...oh, I mean, a month before it was formally declared 'run for you lives!' ... But I've talked to enough checked out doctors off clock and enough pharmacists in passing, as well as the siege of anecdotal accounts. I suspect that declaration point in time is arbitrary and doesn't say shit about whether people were getting this perhaps 2 years ago - China's even been exposed as having had this in circulation longer... It seems there's some nebular clarity on what the real front side origin and timing really was. And since I work indirectly to the UMass Medical Community/Universities ... that's a potential vector - ..blah blah.. But I was sticken for 5 to 6 days... the middle 3 days of which were fever, dry cough, fatigue.. last of apatite ... One day of wet cough..but then on the 5th day ...fever broke and the cough went away suddenly ... I was a running and in shape ( still am..) so, .. it was a weird infection and unusual for me. And the symptom spectrum/sequence was covid incarnate. Nope... doesn't get to be covid because it was month early - f.u.

I know... I can't wait until we put some of these back-to-back-to-back ... I mean, at least with the temperature aspect. It's nice to have these one and done days but it's sort of tainted because the you know what's in store It seems that's the next seasonal maturation point: not having to turn around the next day and watch it all blast out to see with gale CAA. I was hoping that with a whiff/ .. or lesser impact and weaker low in general, the backside of Monday would ease off that .. it seems it is. The NAM is down to 27 mph wind gust lower then bald hill tops so it's progress. I think the next front in the series later in the week may be more like 80 to 60 as oppose to 70 to 42 though -

Oh cool Steve! Yeah this is more than less what I was hoping... What are the 'correlations' <-- suggestions therein/from... etc.. .

Bingo! and I sympathize - jesus... wtf. My parents are 75 and 80 respectively. One is a walking time bomb of comorbidities, the other maybe mild hypertension but has fully recovered from heart attacks 20 years ago... So, typical aging American stock and circumstance. Two shots. Nothing... My co-worker got two shots ... nothing. But my buddy who actually had Covid-19, and was put in the hospital on a banana bag IV and monitored for three days, ... released and since recovered, gets the vaccine anyway and it ko'ed him and put him back in the ER with 103 fever - borderline dain-bramage temperatures. My sister ... 42 and healthy .. zippo co-m's ... ends up couched for two days and pissed off: "they f'n just gave me covid, that what! " There's no pattern there. Is it maybe Pfifer is friendlier... ?? Is this just a moderna thing - If so, f Moderna

I still hunch this may whiff ... tomorrow's ordeal.

On the fence... Looking at the Euro 12z yesterday and comparing to the 00z last evening ... that's that is/was very poor continuity mid week on for this next week. Since when is bad run to run consistency a reason to assume the worse of a two scenarios has to be the truth? I will say ... in a vacuum, that run won't happen. Very high confidence in saying so.. It takes a D4 mere "dent", subtending below that SPV up there in northern Manitoba ( or which ever providence that is - I can never remember those for some reason..), and peels it away from the vortex; then, out of no where... where does it get all that mechanical power as it rips a hole clear to magnetosphere over Quebec? If there could ever be objective criticism of a run, that's it! - or are we just going to go with that - LOL. Nah, clearly...it fabricates amplitude there. The result does not satisfy the input - Over and over and over again... this model does this, D4 to 7 It just did this antic regarding later tomorrow... It had a raging cat-paw nor'easter along the eastern NE coast 4 days ago because of its fake introduction of amplitude. ... I mean, okay it may yet come back. I think it unlikely.. No, it's had to unfurl its bogus curvature correction, in time, to correct for its own error it introduced back when tomorrow was mid range. I think perhaps it does this surreptitiously ..or too subtle for a lot of people to really notice. I suspect its "correction" scheme that works so well everywhere else in the world, may not do so well over this region of North America. How/whatever they are doing at an operational application aside, the result seems to fold in curved surfaces ...perhaps in an attempt to "smooth" noise? But unfortunately... that is bad for this particular part of the world. The perennial pattern of N/A ( the based canvas) is perpetually trying sink the flow S over the Lakes - it's baser forcing that at times is overcome and we see ridging in the east...sure. But over the longer term, the basal structure dips east of the Rockies. It's because of super synoptic torque produced by lifting the ambient westerly motion of the atmosphere over the western N/A high country, with Coriolis. But by super-imposing that with the Euro correction washing, suspect it creates a "synergistic" ... or false constructive interference - adding too much amplitude to troughs kicked down stream of a 110 W. We cannot trust the Euro here in this region of eastern N/A for that range ... or at least, take those whopper trough bombs with incredulity. It may be why we don't see it on the ridge side of the anomaly...because ridging by nature of all this is not a tendency so there's no synergy there. But nerdy and some reading here - sorry ..but for a crew of public users that spends so much of their lives in consternation of the model cinema and what the next scenes will do to them on a personal level ( eh hm...) seem you could benefit from these observations. I dunno Anyway, having said all that ...I am on the fence because the PNA is rising in conjunction with a whopper phase 8 MJO tsunamis on the RMM ( both guidance clusters too!) ... and I'm just not sure a cooler regime won't evolve anyway given time. However, seasonal modulation of R-waves coherence/ .. eddy relaxation of gradient over all, might also interfere with these telecon signals ...

Having said that ... May whiff most unfortunately.

Personally I hope it rains 3” ... still can’t get my head around those fetishized to will no rain into reality. Wtf is that?