Typhoon Tip

My hunch is a complete whiff with the southern ( quasi southern ..or whatever that is...) stream cyclone, as the previous more wrapped up deepener was a result of a partial stream phase with that wave N of the Lakes ... but recent guidance et al has clearly been trending toward keeping those two features from interacting much at at all at this point until well past our longitude. Part of that is owing to the mishandling of the NAO domain - ... More was causing the Lakes wave to dig a bit to where it could force phasing but that's not happening in recent guidance. Sunday .. partly cloudy with showers N country NNE associated withe N/stream clipping past, while the southern waves remains S ... cirrus and ultostrate deck over southern zones with hodgepodge in between there and central NE. we'll see... It also calls into question how much backside CAA really cuts in ... as these open wave solutions may not be done trending the whole contention yet further up and out and that would of course mean less backside

That ridge next week was flirting with really ballooning in some of the guidance ... The next run deflates a bit.. then bigger... Itt's like it has slow leak - heh... In any case, however warm it actually gets ... the theme re turning seasonal chapter seems to still be the main evidence. Fronts and oscillating air masses are less revoltingly cold, with more tepid fluctuations - most importantly - on the red side of the 540 - We've had some very warm days ... and also, overnight lows. They've been throwing off the means and making seem warmer than it has felt. It seems the cold targets 2:45 pm every afternoon some how, some way. ...jesus. But outside of rainy days if any ... looks like 60 to 80 range, as opposed to 44 F packing pellet snow flurries to 65, beginning tomorrow.

Scheduled for me first dose next Friday ... I know 6 people that are completed. And everyone of them experienced different severity, ranging from nothing to couched and pissed off for two days, but all report no affect by the first of the two. Who knows - based upon that it seems it's an utter crap shoot

Feels much much milder in between the attempt at stilling chill by the breeze. It may even slacken as the afternoon presses but ... actually the diurnal heating/BL expansion mechanics will probably tip canopies too. Tomorrow looks topico though - 72 in the NAM MET is probably typically 2 to 3 cool biased during high sun +8 850 mb and enough gradient to well mix us... Also d-slope added.. I bet pubes 76 at a few locations as a high but we'll

I have been since Feb 28th ... The Pacific needs to be watched though - the MJO "maybe" might sorta just kinda in away force the pattern a little...? Or not, but that's a weirdly scary signal on the RMM's I'm not a big proponent of the MJO ...I've always thought of it as a neg or pos interference thing - if it situates right in space and time, fine - boom... But if it doesn't, the wave doesn't seem to matter so much. It's an influence and enhancer to the flavor of patterns, but doesn't really dictate the taste. That's my personal view on that index and always has been... Throw in my hypothesis about the velocities and gradient soaking of the hemisphere tending to absorb .. as possibly muddying its contribution ( ENSO for that matter too - ), that much more .. It makes me wonder if its relevancy is tending to slip in the general use. But ...this is not winter. The gradients are relaxed .. the velocities concomitantly as well. So now we get a hugely robust Phase 8 buffalo ballz atmospheric tsunami of an MJO wave - I don't know if that is a coincidence of the atmosphere just not damping it 'as much' ... but forgetting that, if the seasonal hemisphere makes it less meaningful either way? who cares I guess. But if May ends up a dreary hell ... heh

Don't mean to impugn the brilliance of Mr. Epstein but oh yeah? - captain obvious - The track of the tornado will dictate what gets hit by the tornado. what am I missing ?

You know what heh.. I knew it would be when you said it was dry for that Sunday deal. I thought, " ..probably brings the warm look back then "

Today's a nape fail - Too much wind. Wind fades as a factor beyond say 72 .. 75 or so. Get it into the low 80s and the wind reverses as a need and ventilation is desired. But 51 here with white noise in the trees is a dong flogging

The NAM is an unmanned fire hose ...spraying low tracks some 200 naut mile track variance ...implicated cirro-strata dry ( 00Z version) to nearly an inch ( 06z version..) now somewhere in between .... While it is doing that ... also caution: the over amplitude and NWS bias of the NAM beyond 48 hours applies just the same as it does in any coastal/astride cyclone management. Still yet another way to look at it? why the f are y'all caring what the NAM things on Sunday ...lol just kidding i get it

I have no confidence in any evaluation right now.. The MJO is shockingly robust in the May blizzard range of the RMM migration... with every single member and cross guidance in a-bomb support of cryogentic black hole centered on Mt Watchusett ... lol.. If I saw that in January/February ... and we were not in a multi-century anthropomorphically enforced Global Warming attributed Hadley Cell expansion, I'd suggest that the Great Lakes, OV ... NE and MA start evacuation procedures now because of an extinction level climate attack on that region... But the HC has everything f-ed up and I don't know if the same tendency to mute the MJOs ...which was evidence all winter long, ...is still going on now that it is spring - with seasonal change comes a break down this and that... blah blah. I don't think it is a coincidence that as the hemispheric gradient is weakening ...taking the HC compression down as well...and the flow velocities everywhere are slackening and shortening wave lengths ... as presently evidenced, that the MJO suddenly presents like a cat in heat. It may be more effective at forcing the Pacific, due to no longer being damped and absorbed in the HC that no one wants to read about.. heh. IF it does/did ... it ain't gon' be no warmin' in May. The Euro has the same insane MJO signal too - just recurved a typhoon too if that were not enough. The GEFs and GFS started punching more trough into the E and f-ing up next week's previous warm signal. MOS MEX has cut 12 F off those explosive highs it eye-popped with, yesterday, ...out of nowhere, broke trends and looking banal and uninspired and almost normal highs .... Went from 18 over climo ( incredible to tamp climate in doing so...) all the way to almost negligible +MOS numbers on the 00z run... Nooormally I'd say that is a bad run and a continuity flop by a model that has a velocity issues regardless of what the hemisphere is doing... such that it ablates ridges to prodigiously - but the stuff above supports it. And I wonder if/when the Euro cluster may suddenly go, oops and pull the rug out ...bend us all over for a Pulp Fiction May ... Or not .. the R-wave disruption associated with seasonal change ...does effect how effective the MJO can disperse a wave forcing ... so, it could be a red herring and smoke screen. As far as the Euro's BD at D6.5 (~) meh... I think you were being hyperbole there - it's likely it's too cute with surface pp attributes...because the 500mb doesn't really look like a confluent BD machine ... In other words, noise made BD ... looks shallow and washing out D7 ... If anything, it may be a weak convergence left over and convection next Thursday ... Having said that... this is just in deference to that one run. We have to remember, this region reside in a perpetual state of KY jelly bums. From April to the end of June of ever year... it is "butt" a cursed geologic cold anus known as New England ... One should fully expect at this time of year for the pattern to just ... seemingly 'metaphysically' start engineering a BD anyway

This air mass is moderating already ... It's still windy but the type and texture of the sky has really abruptly washed out and the temperature has bounced from 42 to 47 here in the late sloping sun. The virga white pall sky has cleared out leaving a dappling of fractal fair weather Cu - there there is some virga plumes still along the NE horizon. So ...it was going to be short live anyway. 60 tomorrow if the NAM MET is right at FIT-BED-ASH... and 71 Saturday.. Pretty amazing to go that quickly around the corner. But with long days we can kind of see it happening - oh it'll probably get cold tonight when the wind abates .. 3 hours of decoupling.

Wow, I don't think I've ever seen MEX go 18 over climatology on a day 7.5 ... KFIT GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/22/2021 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25| MON 26| TUE 27| WED 28| THU 29|FRI CLIMO N/X 33 59| 41 69| 48 56| 42 59| 41 69| 47 76| 50 79| 55 38 61 And honestly just looking over the synoptics on this 12z guidance it's understandable relative to that look, but that's also got to be really stressing against the climate normalization - I mean is that still part of the MOS calculation? That could 25 over by day, and 15 or more by night when the time actually comes... We've been gettng those kind of breaks from reality over recent years too. It's harder to get warm departures that high as the summer gets into it tho. Can you imagine being 25+ on July 20th ? you'd be a 115 in the shade

I know I do - heh

How does get their coifing to do that - it's like down to single strand tolerance in structural scaffolding -

I was discussing last year's couple of May events that were similar to this - though not quite as cold by virtue - most likely - of being 2 or 3 weeks later in the solar calendar. ..blah blah. But I was doing so under the auspices of it being part of this weird "N/A synoptic flow folding" tendency we're seeing more and more of during transition seasons ....during this phase of CC but eh hm... Anyway, I put today's event right in with those. It occurs to me, this is excessive by 850 mb thermal layout and 500 mb thickness - relative to April 22nd, it's late enough and more so fits into that general argument for me. I'm just amazed seeing the NAM's MET fire to 70+ for Saturday ... this isn't Boulder ... Therein, it's not just these cold CAA late spring events - it's also the phenomenal yawing between air mass types, too. Last year we suffered snow flurry and squally air snow in May and then it 96 at BTV 2 weeks later...

Yeah ...I've been joking among various sphere's - hopefully where inappropriate and as fear mongering as possible to poke the yellow-jacket's nest of paranoia ... - that the nano-bot administration sequence of the operation is almost complete ... ' Excellent. EXcellent. They'll make wonderful drones when we flip the switch '

Meh ...we'll probably fade into summer in a rain deficit to some degree but nothing too drastic. Parsed out over say 10 years, it'll just absorb into whatever that background longer -termed signal is, and won't ultimately matter - we just don't desiccate the landscape here like they do in west Texas or California ... To get that kind of impact here would require a much longer return rate ... probably on the order of Millennial in time scales or something... Just from common experience and exposure to planetary sciences et al ... it seems we can find deep coring samples far more revealing of flood events than the other way.

These yaws are impressive man ...wow. I mean, 44 in between exploded virga shrouded CU flurries where it dips to 38 with gusts now... 60 Tomorrow on MEX MOS ( ave) FIT/ASH/BED ...still windy tho. But then 71 on Saturday with equivalent August 18 sun and lightening wind - Monday to Wednesday may do similar early to mid this next week, only up the scale by a few clicks.

How does this prove I am a moron, and he is not

It was just jocular friend - chill out... I don't think he is really lacking substantive intellectual capacity - lol... if you need to hear it as his knight and shining armor, riding across the desert ..coming to his emotional rescue - Just kidding... Rolling Stones rip - SO the f what - take the word Moron out of that... everything else I said is true -

Lol at that pun ... But yeah to the other - matches what I've bothered to research and read. I'm the kind of dork that will geek out over at NCBI medical library - Anyway, I also recall reading a ( I think it was cited .. ) Johns' Hopkins study that focused on mass-dosing with C-19. I'm wondering if some of these "mild" run in and/or self resolved cases may have been below the "lung requirement" if you will - as though you needed a bigger whack in take to get it to ache one's bones and send them to the ER and shit.

Last May it snowed twice Since I was first old enough to remember as a cognitive function ... 1973 or '74 say, through about 2001... I recall seeing snow twice in May. Once was a fascinating squall that started as thunderstorm with big rain drops that immediately began bouncing as aggregate balls ( not the same as hail - ), then snow... all over a span of 10 minutes. It was 48 F when the sky shaded over, noon, from the west - Kalamazoo Michigan 1979 ...maybe '80. The other time was some random overnight snow showers behind a strong cold front in 1993 that left a smidge on grass .. The frequency changed demonstratively in 2001... In early May that year, snow showers on the Boston Common ... 1/2" in the grass as we were pilin' out of car to patron some swanky over-priced society pub. I was young and dumb and distracted by shenanigans back then, but was still offended ... Then a year later, the 18th of May and that noodle tossing coastal that brought actual accumulation to the Worcester Hills. Then in 2005, the dreaded devoured May ...and the three coastal lashings with no break between; one snowed in N middlesex on car tops... and then there was X and then X and then the X ... I mean...these are happening now... just like they are at the other end in October ( by the way ...). I roll eyes and argue that CC is fundamentally causal. I believe it is changing the general circulation eddy of the hemisphere .. blah blah ..favoring seasonal pre-lapse and lag at the transition seasons. Last year is weird in memory though. Despite those early May Leslie Neilson exit face smack events... the end of the May wildly flipped . That heat wave swept through NW/NNE ...while we remained comparatively uninspired albeit warmer than normal form SNE to down through the Mid Atlantic...

Obviously none ( or very few..) of us are actual immunologists. I fit squarely into that distinction. But I thought that although anti-body populations decline given time, the immune system has a memory - "immunological memory" . I thought the body could produce anitbodies when needed that way. B/plasmamemory and T memory cells end up with 'genomic data banks' from having already differentiated for whatever invading antigen they succeeded over in the past. An antigen gets recognized by these B cells and T-cell response ..which in turn trigger antibody production. I may not have that exact but I'm at work and shouldn't be doing this - lol ... I guess even if that is true, an antigen mutation and re-introduction to the body, probably has to be treated by the immune system uniquely - which is what and why a vax may be 'necessary' or useful after having had the earlier version of C-19... At some point, C-19 may become C-19' ( OR d(C-19) ) enough that it doesn't matter if you've had it before, you could get wiped out by a variant that is almost indestinguishable

Relax there internet cop -

That transition from Monday to Wednesday afternoon is going to be striking - one of the best summer entry in terms of rare abruptness I've seen since that 2009 ...when we had that warm front dislodge 44 F type BD/ N-door air masses, with a near 90 ...I think it was early May and it's so utterly in-germaine to anyone that no one will remember it - Lol ...But, just being fictional to make the point: we had like 44 F...then the next day, 55 with pingers in that ultra dry air sleet that sometimes falls at 51 in the spring, then it was 88 the next afternoon... Not saying that's going to happen,... but I could see it going from a deep backside CAA windy Monday ( tho not as cold as today thank god!), to flag wobbling WSW wind at 82 on Wednesday ... It'd be like getting on a flight in a cold anus known as New England, and landing in San Diego Cali going between those two days next week. That abrupt transitional affect/look has been in the guidance very consistently too.