Typhoon Tip

oH believe me ... and it's a repeating climate signal at this point. ENSO cool/warm aside... didn't matter. We've put up 70 to 80 episodes in Feb and Mar during an unsettling number of those months spanning that last 15 years, to much to be ignored - though given the bias in here, it tends to be LOL. No, but I take looks like that seriously these days, at this time of year, because the elephant in the room also added to that. We're on the fence with index/indicators... Seems every couple run cycles the modeling veneer finishes warm, then cool...oscillatory error. We know whatever transpires over the next 2 weeks of the month, it's not going to be 'on the fence' so one way or the other will likely win.

To add insult to Phin/PF ... the Euro with a run at 70, D10 ... not that it'll survive 10 days of fractals in the models and actually happen, but it's the gesture that counts... LOL

Yeah it's kinda boring looking ahead. Maybe the week's end system is interesting for wind and ribbon squall if that's a kick. Originally, I thought that had a chance to flatten like the sleet event last week - it too was a flat wave cutter when it was D5+ ..etc. But still waiting for any trend to even manifest is a paint peeling. Otherwise, watching indices modulate off the warm throttle, but not conclusively so... such that varied outcomes not sufficient to induce much, oy ... None of that is exactly lighting the stage up with entertainment really. It's like we're sitting in the auditorium with half illumination watching set dec move props during sound and production checks. More like an opportunity to check out. Maybe engage in other hobbies ... check back in once in awhile in the off chance that anything might emerge.

The cutters are likely legit. I'm assuming your motivation surrounds warmth? For those in the spring/warm enthusiasm side: the numerical PNA teleconnector at CPC has shallowed some regarding the previous negative index mode. Still has the index slumping off.. but, keeps the -PNA rather weakly so - centered on D7. In fact, it's really only down -.5 SD, which is not a very convincing look. Prior it was -1, with a more coherence. This shallowing is then followed by the index rises back positive going through week 2. I realize the MJO this ..and La Nina that... and climate change this ...and all that, but these are more like garnishing indicators and will take a back seat if the seasonal persistence ( by virtue of already verifying...) decides to return. The recent 4 weeks of the hemispheric circulation eddy was rather decoupled from the La Nina base-line expectation, as noted by CPC's recent MJO weekly publications - although last week they surmised it may "RE" couple, based on the RMM 3-6 migration being in constructive interference with La Nina..etc. This latter may still happen...and that may start tipping the extended PNA back downward in time - we'll see... But, the point of this verbal journey is to demo that there might be some competing forces in play that make a warm out look less confident. In the dailies, there's deeply gelid air mass plumes still loading into the Canadian shield in all guidance... that's typically a "silent -EPO" tendency. That index actually has a longer term negative correlation coef. wrt to the PNA so having it be out of phase signals the conflict.

I wouldn't call it, "This storm is coming back," with the ominous opening sentence tone, though - that's a bit of a Ralph Phillips take on matters LOL. This snow is not really tied directly into the storm mechanics itself - I mentioned that same exact aspect last night ... In some ways, it seems we have an ANA that is actually ANA-ing. Ha... or maybe if in the quasi sense. There's also a strong and getting stronger, 300 mb jet that's paralleling the EC. In fact by this evening.. it's reoriented in such a way that the strongest winds ( approaching 180 mph!) are leaving New England. I think that is helping blossom this stripe. It was in erstwhile guidance and put some valid question into the mix as to whether more QPF should be striped/banded back west ...which seems to be doing well per rad and sfc obs. The NAM dropping it at 06z is odd. It failed already so whatever... but, these mechanical metrics were still on that particular run. If we negate that run, the NAM seemed to be more correct with placement. It's hard to tell but later tonight the operational GFS appears to evolve a very weak NORLAN? I see a weak IVT with a classic hook in the QPF. I also wonder if that may benefit from a brief window where the llv flow orientation brings OES enhancing into the convergence axis. Interesting...

Uptown never said it’s ALL going to melt. reading comprehension ftl

We had some funny nicknames for him back in the 90’s

Not a difficult feat for model with a typical NW bias ... altho, admittedly, it typically expresses that more often > 48 hours, still - it's not really setting well with me that it is the farthest NW. I've described that bias more than a handful of times. It seem folks are not adopting much awareness ... I suspect because of situations similar to this here, where they need it's NW bias to keep hope alive? Relative to the guidance, nonetheless: The blossoming of that QPF appears almost entirely driven by a very powerful 300mb wind max which accelerates, and situates an axis extending from the interior MA to Maine/NS... close to 180 mph! The entire I-95 corridor in that NAM run is under it's lateral exit/entrance region, ... too far away NW to be directly attributed to the frontal wave escaping off the low mid Atlantic - I think others mentioned this. Anyway, it excites upward vertical motion parallel, and associated elevated frontogenic banding from the DC to Boston. The GFS has the same 300 mb jet structuring... but opts to tilt the QPF axis more ESE keeping lift axis' S of SNE in that guidance. Not sure which is right ... I suspect there is enough agreement among all runs to have that band, and it fits the synoptic argument described above... but the GFS is obviously deliberately engineered to always be the less fun run jeez The whole thing looks like an attempt at ANA like mechanics really to me. Little leery of that... for like ANA ...they tend to be hotly QPF'ed, but end up eaten alive by dry air and slant-wise undercutting NVA/DVM .. taking water mass out of the lower thickness intervals. It may do that here, and prove that band is there ...aloft. It would not shock me if a lot of that is a raging virga shield. But, ..ugh.. that's not all of it. There's likely to be some OES activity given that high's orientation, and the fresh new polar -arctic hybrid air flowing long shore into the coast early Monday. That could be an add on. In fact, the QPF looks suspiciously like the GFS is attempting to upslope against the Monadnocks and lower Whites ... which if is real, would be doing that over ORH too

heh, sorry - I guess I read a page earlier this morning and it came across a bit like a meme buy-in motif where crowd physics drives the weather more so than cloud physics lol. I gotta bop out for little bit. Will let the 18z's cycle in ... maybe some other Meso options will back this look - I dunno - maybe this'll be a quasi posi bust.

heh... new NAM's layin' 2-3" at Logan... I'd go look at the thread but it's an annoying eye-roller delusional hall of smoke and hope in there so I'll defer

First of the double boundaries has slipped silently passed.. Party over. We were 61 here two hours ago, now 53 with wind shift into the NW. You're obviously by virtue of latitude doing better in terms of cold "recovery" Next boundary is about 200 mi W-N and it's brutal. Goes from 44 Capital District of eastern NY to 14 crossing the border of NY/Can

I don't know how much this is 'sneaking' up on people but Monday? that could be some of the coldest air we've experienced this winter season ...particularly across the N country,...but mid teens down to the Pike at mid day mid Feb intensity full sun is pretty damn spectacular cold. ..just checkin' out the 2 meter Euro and other synoptics -

Yeah ...that 'flattening'/attenuation was observed prior to that 16" er ...I think that happened 4 days aft of the blizzard? Anyway, I mentioned a couple days ago that might happen again, because there were some remarkable similarities to both circumstances, from the distant vantage of - at the time .. - 180 hours out, just as an in situ observation of the operational art show. Since then? This time ...the correction has been slower if at all. In fact, it did correct in the GFS by 100 miles over two runs ..about 2 days ago - that and the previous storm example prompting to me wonder.. .But as usual, the moment I clicked "Submit Reply," it become as though that button may as well read, "Shit On What You Just Typed" - that trend halted and the track/front have been locked ever since. The problem/difference really .. .between that other event and this one, is that prior to that one the PNA was in the process of correcting positive. Every night the EOFs would crunch the telecon and the D8 mean GEF-based curve was ending up more positive than the previously nightly computations. This time, the PNA is going the other way. That difference in the large scale super synoptic manifold sends a correction vector for warmer, not colder, unfortunately for snow packs critically being injured if not on life support already.. So we eat another big chunk today... then we lock whatever's left into diamond-crete through mid week. And in that time, we'll see/test these telecon signals. It might be interesting if one is dorked out and nerd horny enough. ugh - too much even for me to care frankly. I would just say from orbit ...? it looks like the operational renditions, all of them... are ablating the warm signals at least excuse imagined. They keep illustrating depictions in the longer range that fail to extend the eastern mid latitude warm look, limiting the layouts to less than signals are accommodating. It's sort of 'hiding' how warm that could be. I just get the feeling the rest of the month is cooked in New England down to the MA/.. The Lakes cutter might warn snow/ice a stripe from IA-southern MI/lower Ontario, but even there suffers as we see the operational runs start acknowledging the memo. La Nina spring/-PNA ...with an utterly abandoned (AO/NAO) mode(s), ...in a CC-argument that has contributed already to numerous bizarro 70s excursions in recent Febs and Mars dating back a decade or more... No part of that arithmetic should trigger any illusions on where the correction vectors are presently pointed. heh...we'll see.

He might be right ... Frankly, if the Euro is correct with that amount of warm sector push - which I suspect it may be too aggressive but just suppose for a moment ... - no snow pack will survive 64/54 combination of T and DP transported along in sustain 20 mph, gusting to 40 mph winds. In such a scenario, even deep into the cryospheric domains...that would be 48/46 blow torching. We could unseat the Greenland icecap in that No, but even denser "melt resistant" snow packs would deteriorate at a surprisingly fast rate. As an aside - it may be clever, or 'covert' trolling, to 'time' abject observations, when said observation is rooted in plausibility (hence the insult to intelligence). However, unfortunately for the people that are too sensitive, their sensitivity is a very fortunate boon for people that engage in that sort of subversive tactic for their own muse in Schadenfreude. The best thing is to ignore it? That takes maturity and personal integrity - ... not you per se, but it's probably a crop failure to attempt to sow such seeds of advise in the soils of the World Wide Web's stunning achievement in restraint. ... just sayn' Anyway, I think it 'possible' the Euro is too far NW, overall, with it's open wave cyclone track and the the frontal position. Not enough to matter much down here in SNE ...but, up there in mid/N Maine, I could see that boundary correct S over the next 3 days of runs...inch by inch. I'm just not convinced that the Euro doesn't still have a meridian bias beyond D4's ... 50/50 on that. So it's just a well likely that it actually does pin a warm front/stationary front N of Phin to truly and deeply f his snow pack.

Just be aware if not advised ... the synopsis in how/why that warm intrusion occurs maps like a potential wind annoyance. That may not be as pleasant and "napey" as those temperatures look. It's a flat open wave ripping NW as a eastern Lakes cutter, and it will be dragging an unabated warm sector along with it, but ... there is lots of QPF contamination in the various guidance... Could be white noise leaner wind gusts, with misty showers and lots of lower nimbus cloud types. I've actually been wondering if Ohio/ W PA down to KT may have another severe outbreak ( separate curiosity - ) ... We could end with a ribbon-echo squall along the CF when that whole mess rapidly smears out into Maritime shortly after this chart above.

50s yesterday to near 60 today, and an equally handsome whiplash negative air mass tomorrow... That lasts 2 .. 3 days, then, the total depth of the troposphere rolls the cold air mass away with 0 resistance to the cutter. - back into the 50s 60 - 20 - 60 over the next 7 days. occupational hazard: I predict this particular social media's social graces will decay to an insufferably disgruntling state, so inconsolable and hostile that Brain or whomever really owns this thing has no choice but to slam it shutdown for a week...

Man ... Sunday's gonna suck prison balls at shiv point I mean, yeah yeah ...just enjoy today and tomorrow - I got it.. But MET has FIT and ASH 30 F Sunday afternoon...and with clouds tending along the southern skies, that'll be shade mid day gelid hell compared to what it will be like tomorrow. By the way, I did not check MOS 'products leading today - oops. meant to do that... I'm curious how they did in this, because this is just an exquisite set up to bust the MOS too cool.

He's correct .... I do not posses a P.H.D., but this corroborates everything I've read and studied since 15 years ago when I first began taking interest in that area of Meteorology. So take fwiw - I also have a working hypothesis related to the faster than normal base-line geostrophic wind velocities that we've been observing, all over the winter hemispheres of the planet, a phenomenon that began some 20 years ago and has been a leitmotif with only increasing tendencies ever since. I call it "slosh back" in the springs... Basically the way it works: fast flow abandons pretty quickly as March gets under way, due to normal radiative forcing beginning the neutralization of the winter-time gradient... "quickly" in the relative sense, mind you. As that happens, for a brief transient week or two, there is a tendency for warm deposition into upper latitudes, and we see blocking nodes pop off ... This is probably thesis work level stuff, but just spatially from orbit, it is not theoretically impossible.. it just needs the data and calc to demo how passing from high velocity to a nominal one, could cause mid/u/a height response. When the normal PV state ( AO mode) of winter weakens from an abnormally strength state, it may trigger a stronger than normal -AO lapse, albeit transient.

Yeah...I'm not overly impressed with that March signal - outlined a bunch of reasons earlier. A lot of that could be gestational climo norms for Spring. Once it happens that late, by the time the time-lag catch up to doing anything it's too late - April mangles the R-wave layout and the arctic domain loses it's connection with the mid latitudes. Ovah!

Don't think of it as "a heat guy" - .... I think what Brian's trying for in spirit there, is that you will start to feel less uncomfortable at 78 ... then it's 82 ... ..87, etc. eventually 90. Not that I matter - but for me ... 90/48 (maybe 52) with puffy cu offering occasional two minute shade intervals, is rather soothing. Oh, I wouldn't wanna don my running kicks and bang out a 10K in that, no -but... puttsing around the yard and doing chores... or strolling with the lady friend around the landscape, day at the beach.. it's fine. The gestation of life will put you there eventually... It's funny.. I was talking to some kid at the gym that effortlessly cycles through 20 rep chin ups with the fluid motion of an elevator, telling him 'wait 'till ur my age'. He said, "I'll never lose this..." - I just grinned a little. Everyone when they are young, says, "I'll never -" ... but no one since our species crawled out of primordial states died feeling hot. They don't call it the cold shroud for nothing -

ha hahhahaha... I was just thinking that - What really made last year epic was that it started two Xmas' ago.. .with that dragon breath S gale on that holiday... Followed by Memorial Day massacre ... Followed by that 4th of July ordeal that really could only be out played by a species ending extinction event .. .Then, that not being enough, I'm pretty sure that Labor Day was at least half consecrated in rectal plaque - I mean, that lotto winning ( or losing I guess - ) is in and of its self, a 500 year return rate - wow In fact ...fuggit! may as well package this shit show winter up in that same craziness. By the way, even Harvey Leonard thinks this winter has been an extraordinary venture in wasted potential - it's not just affectation. It really did defy odds to in order to be a turd.

Mud turns hard as coal Saturday night. Pretty intense low level temp crash signaled here. Not sure it's a real 'thaw' in the spirit of seasonal escape. ... not even long enough to transience. I bet there's a frozen layer that survives. The signals for warm end to Feb are certainly real, but that could materialize either very much so...or more tepid. The latter version probably doesn't break warm enough to 'keep it thawed out' - it's not slam dunk to ever call a winter over on Feb 11 LOL ... some tantrums I think.

mm hm, that's the way it looks ..but the magnitude is an interesting question for me. One take: the dailies handling, the PNA telecon, is presently not hugely negative coming from the GEF cluster. I'm not sure what the EPS curves look like - are they concerted or dispersive? are they showing a mean that is deeper(shallower) than the GEFs (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif ).. Just for confidence's sake, cross guidance support ..etc. Anyway, the oscillatory behavior coming out of the last several cycles of the operational runs et al that other's are noting, really actually fits a more neutral PNA suggestion. take two: The AO is forecast to be loudly positive, as is the NAO... well into the end of month. So, even modestly negative PNA may end up with a disproportionately N displaced exit latitude of the continental westerlies. That's code for, more eastern ridging, more so than the models are showing at this time. There may be a subtle correction vector to raise eastern heights, in which case, that occurs over time as an emergent property... Yet a third take ... year over year seasonal trend. We've observed some startlingly warm events to 45 N across eastern N/A in recent late winters and early springs. This has taken place pretty much regardless of ENSO this, or polar index tendencies... So there's some sort of causal root that's difficult to ascertain - it could just have been dumb luck that we've had so many of those over the last 10 years. Having said that, it does make one wonder: if we map 'take two' over this local climate signal, what happens then? Actually, superimposing 'take one' over that may hedge warmer yet. Lastly, this is all predicated on the assumption that these telecon spreads are stable outlooks.

Ah ... I dunno 'bout that. 1 .. that is so late in the year, by then it may be too late. There is a time lag of ~ 20-days ( minimum..) before a downwelling warm wave begins to mechanically suppress, subsequently stabilize the PV, which --> -AO. Three weeks past March 11 is already into April? By then, the mid latitude R-wave distribution manifold is already seasonally disrupted too much. That means the polar domain events are decoupled(ing) from the mid latitudes - and the former forcing vector goes with it. I have seen those very late events in the catalogue at CPC, found here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ ... and the AO's do not respond as coherently as they do when SSWs occurred earlier in the respective seasons. 2 .. even if that is a legit warming event ... is it downward propagating? This question is crucial. If it just bounces around and doesn't demonstrate a downwelling behavior, it's not enough to just exist. This latter aspect is routinely either negated, or not understood. People bandy the SSW's about without doing that determination, too much - not saying that is Mike, but there's not enough there indicating a extrapolation from the onset of that. It's a moot question as to how it effects if it's not doing that behavior if no. 3 .. if the EPS long range for this is anything comparable in performance as the EPS has been in the other scopes of the total planetary system, I'd say the chances of that initial onset of that is iffy at best. I dunno though - maybe it is amAzing just doing this one aspect... All this suggests for me there is a 90% chance that is meaningless.

Agreed.. Not much tolerance for cold my way ... to which snow chances need? Thus, the latter ends up annoying for me as well. That said, I admit to some hypocrisy based in either of two circumstances. The first being, it's an unusual .. call it near or at historic March run, such that the in situ pattern is compensating for seasonal change close to complete proficiency - certainly ...excessively high percentage stoppage. I have never seen that, but March 1956 apparently did that. The second being, a single extraordinary event ... upper bound standard deviation, ... return rate of over a 30+ years. Like 1993... 1888 ... arguably, 1997, probably May 1977. Those are worth the sit through, both educational, exciting, and d-dripping (lol.. making a joke about 'dopamine drip' and addiction to this shit). Anyway, lob one of these at me and I can check back in for a brief stay. The thing about one-and-done March+ bombs and/or assorted rareness, usually within 10 days your shirt sleeves are short again, and actually .. it can be interesting dichotomous affect with open field snow patches at 70 F ... I've seen that only a few times and is also a rare gem. Basically, if the in situ circumstance is significant enough - If the season, by destiny, will not host one of those two circumstances... I'd rather it be 70+ until next mid October. Despite these druthers ... rest assured, whatever happens it will most certainly figure out how to achieve the geometric unlikeliness of getting equal distance from three distinct points amid a perspective plain - essentially ... the ext center away from a circle of joy.