Typhoon Tip

That Spanish Flu did that ... Common knowledge by now ( or should be ..), Influenza a and Influenza b are in fact genomic ancestors of that progenitor pandemic agent from 100 years ago. Yeah, they can cause a crummy week and enough misery in their own rights, but they are far less deadly/injurious then the original. It is likely that COVID-19/ SAR -Cov 2 takes similar evolutionary track. If you think about it , it makes sense in a sort of "mathematics of evolution" sense of it. I'll have to look it up as I can't remember where, but I did read or hear it explained ... It doesn't make sense for any virus to ultimately kill the hosts, because that would - given time - impede its probability of successfully transmitting itself to subsequent targets. It's seems pretty clad as a statement ... That is why they are usually for more deadly - or just worse so in general ... - when they are novel to a species population. Then, they settle back into a maintenance infection and recovery ... So perhaps in decades C-19 is just another rhino virus head cold. You know, there's even a branch of this science that suggests it is possible, ... eventually they settle back into just being accepted by the host ...forever immortalized as dormant drone genes. I've read that too - ...fascinating. Human mitochondrial DNA has evidence of being influenced in this way.

Not to be a prig ... or come off as wantonly contrarian, but has "asymptomatic" expression vs spread debate actually been settled - like...obviously so? I keep hearing that is the case, but it sounds just like statements - I have not been exposed ( so admittedly..) to any circuitry of empirical data and scientific factualization method on the subject matter. Is it factually, and empirically data-wise proven, such that the term ludicrous is the best most apt expression for this particular folly of our times - LOL Tongue-in-cheek aside, I actually "suspect" the gist of what you said in that bold is so, anyway ? - I do. But I also push my hypothesis ( again here ) that we are living through an actual 'evolutionary era,' one that I have referred to as a 'techno-sociological experiment of evolution'. One that may not be defined as being so, until it is reviewed by historians, subsequently ... futuristic anthropologists ... Furthering out yet, any interloping aliens sifting through the rubble scratching their heads going, ' zunt guib bocken-stet ...' - loosely translated: "These dumb mother f*ers" - assuming Fermi Paradox avoidance for a moment : Who knows how many hundreds, or thousands of years it will take for reflections to evince, to prove how technology is fashioning biology. One thing I - personally - am 100% confident of, if we are not a part of that future ( as in, at all...), it 'fashioned' our ass right off the planet - hence the 'avoidance' of Fermi thing... But that's going down a different conference. It is the first time in history that a species on this planet (namely ..us) was/is capable of doing that. Whether it is done directly through genetic engineering, or indirectly so by exposure to our own toxicity in the environment, these intended/unintended 2ndary modulates are veritable evolutionary bombs. They are forces that are vastly, vastly more powerful then pure Darwinian model. Why? Because Darwinian models require wholly gratuitous chance, where as tech ...removes that aspect operating on us. We now force changes in time frames too small to register against that of geologic 'eternity' clock. What took humanity 750, 000 years of surviving vicissitudes, to arrive at the ability to split an atom and decode the genome - these abilities we have now, which in similar concept as "Moore's Law," lead to furthering advances at a demonstratively outpaced rate to any geologic time dependence, when and where randomness gets chosen by favorable elections as usable or discarded along the previous 750K years. We are the first to do that, not only as a species in this world's 'biome', but to our selves. We really are at a historical threshold. Again by comparison to the normal gestation of species evolution in geological terms, it will be a matter of mere moments before changing our eye colors over a 6-month retro-virus re-allocation sequencing therapy. Or a reality where if one would rather maintain rich their vibrant sexually appealing manes of hair well into their 90s, they can do that as well - -uh, for the right "capital Darwinian winner price" ... I.Q.'s and super races follow - and expose the Liberal Kumbaya is at best in an intense negotiation against the forces of the real Universe - morality and ethics ...purely human conceits, evolutionary emergence' along the way because we need cooperation for the community's survival. The Universe outside our bubble of conceit? It appears all evidences notwithstanding, to be blithe. I digress... The reactionary society thing you danced around in your bold, is an expression of the techno-sociology experiment. It is one where the internet and access of too much information for the 'gate' of individual reads - then integrating into modalities in the society as a whole... Mm...not good. It feeds-backs negatively toward hysteria ... uncontrolled actions based up less then critical analysis/objective reasoning. You know, reality used to be that 99% of population was simpler - not a knock. It's the way things were. We were poke and lever, yolk, sweat and leather... that was the brain trust of civilities. That's what geared civilization. It was a lot more black and white, where the enlightenment was vastly outnumbered by a static, less motivated ubiquitous normalization. It is a great on paper that we all have access to enlightenment, but it is a problem in reality when it creates a vast gray area of civility not possessing proportionate categorical processing ...where policies are made. And it is happening faster than normal process of information critique can ever resolute proper recourses. Moving all of civility to a recourse(s) proven false ...and it's not the first time, either, demonstrating the out-pacing. Simply put, we fought and fight two pandemics along the way: 1 COVID-19 2 Histrionics by too many people and agencies to stem the tide of incorrect recourse.

Well .. realistically ? by the time Saturday arrives we will have been through some 7 days of 'top 20' if not top 10 -type weather. Granted, it offers no consolation having to be "fair" ( lol... ). Nor would one then have to capitulate to fairness by correcting for climate on a weekend day, .. understood. If it helps at all, that doesn't appeal as a cool wet misery Saturday, either - uh, relative to the Euro. It's 564 thickness still wends through the region, with what gradient can still be discerned out of that crumbled mess still keeping the gray-green oceanic life-suck Labrador death air from moving W... And with PWAT pooling ... thunderstorms are fun too . Probably training in that look. Right down the residual US D-M's notice regions too. Imho, the GFS ... Short version: I'm discarding the GFS entirely for D4.5 onward, and not really considering it very much so D2 to 4.5...either. I may not use it again until it is upgraded.. Longer version: it is unusable as a model in this pattern - and I wonder if this particular version of that model is just too egregious with it's physical limitations, to be used much at all during the ensuing warm season(s). By D4 it is clearly - every time I do this analysis - separating it's self from consensus by lowering heights anywhere there is a trough, or... just in the ambience on the polar side of the hemispheric westerlies. It is usually 3-5 dm by D5, and if not in y-coordinate depth, it may be by areal expanse (x-coordinate) of cold heights bigger than consensus. This gets worse toward D10's ... It can't maintain ridge nodes and is always the first to collapse them, too. It almost makes me wonder if it's "thermal budgeting" is physically improperly "draining" LR away from the atmosphere ... something - maybe it is just hygroscopic/WV latent heat flux and maintenace handling in general. ..speculation... but it's coherently bad enough to expand thought if one uses this p.o.s. billion dollar technology they've flagship NCEP with... ho man- I am not sure if that is related to the following? Nevertheless... here are the MOS MEX numbers for KFIT, Friday Saturday and Sunday: 55 69| 55 65| 53 67 (the bold being the highs) Does that seem very reasonable given the universe of modeling technology (that the GFS does not appear to be a part of) at this point in time ? Tech musing the MEX: +2 continental synoptic ridge event, one that's focusing the positive anomaly E no less, "might" find an explanation in historic BD contamination. It is not difficult to imagine a scenario where anticyclonic curvature, resulting NNW streamlined middle troposphere ...featured embedded S/W's in history. They no doubt passed SE out of Canada N of Maine route. And like usual ... they sent a parting gift slab of Labrador excrement back west as though walking into an elevator and the farter is long gone... By the time the S/W is half way to England and no where to be found ...the cold rolling wave of rhea finally terminates in the Mid Atlantic to ruin it's final beach day along the Jersey shore .. The data-base that "normalizes"/weights the MOS toward climatology ... I wonder if it has a couple of those cold, more local regional offsets that are thus asynchronous to the synoptics of warm ridging. In fact...why the f am I writing all this when no one's reading it... - forget it That's another aspect ...I find it odd that there is no BD ...really. I mean considering our climatology in May, and the fact that the flow is NW aloft... Maybe one eventually materializes over the weekend out of all that mess.

Only 25K new cases in the whole country today. Curve is cratering. Monday’s typically a light day though. Hangover passive counts from the weekend ... Thursday’s are bad. We’ll see. I wonder if all these monitoring websites ‘ill stay active when this thing settles into the background of always 800someodd a day. I mean it’s never going to be 0. No way. It may even devolve into a cold-like illness. Spanish Flu did that ... became InfA and B ... etc which aren’t as deadly as the progenitor from way back in the day

Heh... the GFS wouldn't get above 60 on Saturday with that weird descending bag of confused troughiness ... the model is just obsessively chomping at the bit to end any warm up, it ends up manufacturing weird carbuncle pressure pattern stuck goop.. What the f is that mess? Actually though, even the Euro has a tendency to suddenly recede the heights back SW with the ridge deflating some later Friday night - I wonder ... with the PWAT air pooling and stringing out over/N of the Lakes ..we might see an MCS in there? It's a precarious set up with WNW trajectory at 500 mb, while WSW flow transports increasing DP in the lower troposphere heading into Friday evening...with probably still mid 80s heat. QPF painted in striated bands southern Ontario through Maine in the Euro may actually end up being a right turning complex... If so, that would probably end it - .. But, 22 our of 33 GEF members are slower to erode/'pop' the ridge back to normal as quickly as the operational, and that's reflected in the nightly PNA - granted it is 'supposed' to be less useful as May ages toward June, the CPC's concerted -PNA curve(s) argue for it being useful now as it fits. Anyway, I don't expect us to carry a +2 or 2.5 SD ridge anomaly until September or anything, either... I agree that 90 was always sort of a wild card. Even the cleaner, robust panache of the Euro ridge versions only seems to pack +14.5 C 850mbs into the ridge... It's close. My experience is that 588 dm high balloons tend to bust 850s a tick cool when the days come,...and I could see that ending up 16 and getting it done - sun depending. Not sure -

I know I've said this before ... but I happen to like the turn of phrase - LOL but yup... "The moment in history that the Industrial Media Complex" figured out how to turn thumb swipes, mouse clicks, and television channel pings into a means to make money, we were doomed." - We'd never hear an honest and/or real retelling of reality, ever again. It's worse then click-bate, too. I mean CNN actually attempts to Pied Piper it's fear manipulated following seamlessly into to the next captivating specter. It's "social engineering," really - just attempted a population scales. And it is all a number and mass game, too. Mean, if 90% of the American society really did get WOKE for the right reason ( namely... turn them off for good) ... you'd still have 30,000,000 clients inured to their dystopian cinema.

Lol... it's funny - every year I do that, 'it's late' or, 'it's early...' game. Not sure - Yet every year ...it seems we go from no foliage on March 20th to full foliage on May 20th ...some how, huh -

Yeah ...it's hard to separate 'normal' spring fire season from actual deficit drying attributed smoke shows ... I mean, lawns and fields ..even wide open expansive fields of the Fort Devens grounds, where it's 12 hours of blazer sun all day .. are emerald vivacious healthy green right now. U.S. D-M had us in moderate drought, but have since removed this Rt 2 region... based no doubt upon recent rain coverage. The way to effect the synoptic scales isn't that way - it's the larger integral between Dallas- Chicago east to the east coast ... upwind. These local variations don't imposed enough thermodynamic force compared to that entire integral. It's complex ... there are feed-backs that are more local in scale, because they interact with the atmosphere in short time frames and can register quicker. But if foliage evaportransporation is factored in synoptics it's not likely a quick response mechanism.. Be it a hypothesis in the first place lol..

I wonder ... the 40th parallel across the Continent and above: ...we may not yet be fully getting that quota of soil and foliage WV back from the landscape ... then integrating back into the diurnal cycling/processing. We may just be starting to - it's like this ridge beat the geomorphology contribution by just enough that's missing some thermodynamics. That's a crucial thermodynamic feedback there. When/if under ridging, very high intense insolation ( sun ) + the moisture evaporation off the land-mass, stores tremendous latent heat ... helping the expansion of these summer ridges ... it's synoptic-planetary positive feed back. That adds to the ambient downward vertical motion, thus evacuates the clouds more proficiently ... Last week we had only flowers and some leaf. There's also be well-popularized annoying stein talk, but it's not really just here... no where from the around the eastern U.S. is exactly flooding this spring... It's all super complicated. I dunno it just seems the models have had a bad attitude about actually outfitting this ridge event with much actual warmth. I mean 14C under 590s heights... It'll be warm, sure. But it's kind of shirking it frankly. And then, the ridge can't seem to more typically "cap" convection ... transporting stupid butterfly fart vort shrapnel this and mid level ceiling pollution that, and it's all taking toll and we end up like the GFS with a +2 deviation late spring heat dome with no heat - I noticed also that there was no SW heat/Sonoran released air mass layers into this thing either - probably not helping. The ridge and sun and warmth should be cleaner is all...and the GFS is running away with using dirt to dim potential.

Weird operational depictions from the overnight 00z. They all came in more static and resistant holding the 500 mb height circumvallate longer - but they offset the 'warm' departure chances by introducing so much choking noise with cloud timing this and failure to integrate WV ( apparently ) that ... if the GFS gets its way, it'll be below normal temperatures under 590 heights I I dunno - can't trust that. The models seem like their parental organizations ( ECMWF and NCEP ..) are parameterizing the models runs with dimming factors to prevent hot patterns. Lol. It gets frustrating -

I say bide time on that. It’s been pulsing the ridge back-and-forth in that period. It keeps correcting that ridge reduction later in time too. EPS mean and GEFs Telecon layouts also offering room for more ridge resistant.. That said I don’t have a problem with the front door front knocking things back to seasonal but I think the ridge has a chance to roll back in heat the deep range - And no not just because it’s summer but an actual anomaly

That's a good point too... I mean, who knows if it is - right? Still ... discoveries of 'unintended consequences' seem to happen more and more Can you imagine if future historian or some sort of forensic scientist discovered that A.C. addled immune systems in fringe edifices of SE Asia is what ultimately cultivated the Pandemic - LOL... Kidding obviously but we are always discovering how every day modes of convenience provided by modern industry ... no one knew or could have predicted, but ultimately interacts with the environment in "fractal" effects.

right - 'how dare we sweat' it's like these 'ew' princess complex-oriented folk are what people society these days ... lol - I got news for you, everything alive is a stinking, disgusting biological bag of volatile chemicals radiating funky odors. Just the gratuitous chance of evolutionary pathway has wended humanity into a state where they are "unfortunately " endowed with aesthetic awareness of it, while also having the ability and means to pretend they don't smell weird. Ha. That's what separates animals from the conceit of humans: stink ... sweaty disgusting stink, and our decision either by programming, or biologically ( probably both..) to recognize is as foul. Dog's willingly jam their noses in open butt - ... So I guess at least for "some" individuals, they are above dog status. Ha ha. But people should acclimate to heat as much as they can in all seriousness. Carbon footprint from running A.C.s in all these Princess's boudoir ..adds up in a western civility where the 90th % interquartile mass density is all narcissists above having to be connected to the natural environment. First "sniff" of heat and it's super high maintenance dainty needs for comfort without any recognition of virtue to endurance. This is actually just another monster head in the vast entitlement hydra that is created by turning over generations after generation in convenience. It's not even a lost virtue issue anymore - it's simply just either never having been exposed to a reality without, or just removed from that so long.. people don't realize that a.c. sleeping is a luxury. Interesting... I do think about this selfishness my self. But even I have my limits when sleeping no covers and a fan is not a enough. Fan's ..they have a c-footprint too. what can you do -

540's dm thickness over top 80 highs... Unstable. 10 pts of additional DPs added to SB CAPE ... maybe some CU bubblin' with taller domes, but the actual SB CAPE's probably a low calculation result.. Still, I'm a fan of lapse rates, and there's gotta be cold at 500 mb. Thing is, I don't think we've seen a parcel tap that level in these CU fields over the last couple of days of these diurnals, yet. But LI's shed a couple ticks ...down to -2 or so at regional scope. Either way that's just an unusual combination of metrics there in having 545-type decameter thickness housing surface readings that warm. 75 here already at 10am and this matches ASOS Meso/UT reasonably well - probably we go above above MOS by a tick or two like yesterday .. although, hmmm.. Damn, I didn't check those yesterday. Shoot.

Interesting.. Did that yesterday, too. Days dawn under these kind of a 'standing cloud patterns.' Seemed maybe orographic enhanced .. but as the sun rose, the edge eroded and then it start moving off... In any case, sun has resumed. It's amazing how fast the temp responded within a half hour of the window day glow suddenly lighting up the rooms as the sun took over the skies out there. It was 62 between dawn and 9 with virga plumes and complete OVC. By .. 9:30 it's 72 and mostly sunny.

mm this sounds like a rather harsh reaction, frankly .. My thing is that I live in relative discomfort - I suspect - much of the time, ..due to personal life style of obsessive workouts. I do heavy loads every day at middle aged - heh.. Others do too - not boasting. But 10 K run, 25 mi bike ride, than an hr on the Elipiticle with other gym work ...and can go three week stints before something comes along on calendar.. My shoulders are "sore" one way or the other, anyway. And low grade body aches? meh Anyway, I was wondering if I may just be less noticing of adverse 'mock' flu sensations, but I'd prooobably notice 'splitting headache' and clammy sweats lol. yeah - Thing is, again ... this is entirely randomly doing this. I really did not feel anything different after my first shot. Nada. Contrasting, my sister could swore, 'they just f'n gave me covid, that's what!' ..Yet another friend ends up in the ER with 104 fever - like... c'mon. That's dangerously high and that didn't make the news? .. I guess no one has actually died from a dose, tho - I guess we'll see. I'm sooo looking forward to making sure we all get 12 to 24 hours of mock flu once a year when Covid booster time arrives. New mid October holiday -

That's a super-adiabatic heat wave on the Euro next Thur- Saturday ...although by Saturday may be interfered - not sure I buy that weird dent in the flow out of nowhere. Three or four cycles it keeps trying to do that and it should be obvious by now that it keeps correcting away and burgeoning the ridge and extending it's longevity. In fact, the run is really on posotive side of normal out to D10 But that synoptic look Thur into Sat extends the bl hgts through the 850 mb I'm thinking. It's due to exceeding 900 -850 mb lapse rates by heating below ...mixing and expanding thickness .. That will make for long lapse rates and probably exceeding the 14 C Thursday and that 16 C 850s on Friday... I bet that 90 and 94 ... and those 850 mb are notoriously a tick or two cool biased at this range anyway, when in that sort of dome in late spring. By the time we get there, ...if that sets up like those'll probably run closer to 17 or 18 C It's just a text book hot run ... I thought the 00z was impressive enough but this one has polish -

We just had an interesting T spike and wind increase here... Almost smacks as heat burst - albeit minor.. But last hour it was 74 around most therms with cloud pancaking ...no wind calm. Now, active west breeze, open sky with fractal cu and down right warm feel. Reasonably well matches the 81 rounding number at KFIT ... 81 at homes stations around town. Above MOS It feels very warm ...not just that mild thing - like warm wind ? ...

It's like a gutted ridge ... It's a moderately robust ridge signal. 582 dm, with so-so-sized geographical region 588 ... ( it could also still be a pattern in the process of emerging in the runs too) . But for now the thickness lines are only 558 with pocketed 564 dm throughout the OV, Lowe Lakes to NE ... For 582 heights, that is on the low side of a moderate ridge amplitude - the dry pervasive DPs your noting is why that is so ... non for integrate hydrostatic heights. Not sure why for the continental dearth in moisture - but more typically this sort of ridge couches 564 overall thickness, with a few 570 pockets ... It's almost like a warm March or April ridge event, where it can nudge 80, but those tend to be a parched DP layouts. We may actually put some moisture back into this air mass now that vegetation is absolutely exploding - this region up here along Rt 2 has doubled foliage biomass in just the last 3 days ...it was mostly flowerettes and unfurled leafs before. I just think that is interesting ... we still could bake afternoons given sufficient mixing and 900 and 850 mb thermal layers as modeled, but the nights may crater until we can start infusing more WV into the column.

74 here at 10 stations within 5 mi ... average - Meso west/UT has Fit 73 too... gotta figure we ceiling temp early and start doing more of that cap CU virga shit... Even had a couple of nickel blats under one or two passes of those tendrils yesterday. LI's now further down to -1 .. -2 in recent NAM runs and noticing the GGEM and GFS op's with convective popcorn QPF between 18 and 00z the next two days. I guess you can't really lodge 75 F up under 545 dm thickness without some form or another of instability, huh - maybe we can even get an overachiever thunder clap going. I love how ( presently...) it is apparently Kevin's fault it is cloud in N CT as it is most easily identifiable that the hill line of his specific geography is causing the quasi standing wave phenomenon there... interesting - heh

That is a photo-op for a Better Homes&Garden layout if I've ever seen one but ..heh, your deck needs a staining bro - lol

The illness ( covid ) is real.. The problem here is with the exact nature of the infection part of this infecting agent: it not 'one size fits all' Some die Most don't In between .. there is vast spectrum of just about anything imaginable as to what someone experiences... I've heard of brain damage even. Jesus. Heart scarring this ...lung scarring that... black toes for f sake. While for some... just a head-cold. For others it has mimicked Norwalk shitting... Of course...fever and fatigue may or may not accompany, or be the only thing - It's not like BB plague or Ebola... or Norwalk ... These affect like 99% of population pretty much in the same identical way. Everyone is visible stricken the same that gets them. The uncertainty is lending to a lot of doubt mechanics frankly because it's not every identifiable ...and it is happening in an overall culture that is just as plagued with systemic/social distrust that is as virulent as the Pandemic itself.

Hard call... No part of our climate together with collective common experience would argue for endless days of heat in May. Will and I were musing the other day about ...maybe 2010 doing that... and I'm sure if we dig around. I dunno - maybe this is a return year for something like that (...although this first week of May puts us behind those lore years ) You know..I spent time studying way ago ENSOs and noted a pretty coherent correlation between some noted warm springs into early summers; most were preceded by La Nina numbers quite remarkably similar to this years preceding month ( also through those winters...). But those years got warm, earlier than this..., and it was obvious those years from the get go that it was going to be usual 1976,..2012 were all warm anomalous stand outs with similar -1.5 type 3.4 NINOs... The difference this year seems to be ( theoretical ) the fast flow/HC shit seems to be masking the ENSO as of late, and this year we need to remove that factor ...perhaps now that we have, that substropical ridging is emerging? I dunno - just a thought. But, that vortex handling up there beyond D6 and especially 7 ..the Euro always does this.. It just up and bodily moves those things...and completely abases any D3-7 well established pattern, whether one is destined to actually occur or not. So I don't trust that -