Typhoon Tip

Meh ...we'll probably fade into summer in a rain deficit to some degree but nothing too drastic. Parsed out over say 10 years, it'll just absorb into whatever that background longer -termed signal is, and won't ultimately matter - we just don't desiccate the landscape here like they do in west Texas or California ... To get that kind of impact here would require a much longer return rate ... probably on the order of Millennial in time scales or something... Just from common experience and exposure to planetary sciences et al ... it seems we can find deep coring samples far more revealing of flood events than the other way.

These yaws are impressive man ...wow. I mean, 44 in between exploded virga shrouded CU flurries where it dips to 38 with gusts now... 60 Tomorrow on MEX MOS ( ave) FIT/ASH/BED ...still windy tho. But then 71 on Saturday with equivalent August 18 sun and lightening wind - Monday to Wednesday may do similar early to mid this next week, only up the scale by a few clicks.

How does this prove I am a moron, and he is not

It was just jocular friend - chill out... I don't think he is really lacking substantive intellectual capacity - lol... if you need to hear it as his knight and shining armor, riding across the desert ..coming to his emotional rescue - Just kidding... Rolling Stones rip - SO the f what - take the word Moron out of that... everything else I said is true -

Lol at that pun ... But yeah to the other - matches what I've bothered to research and read. I'm the kind of dork that will geek out over at NCBI medical library - Anyway, I also recall reading a ( I think it was cited .. ) Johns' Hopkins study that focused on mass-dosing with C-19. I'm wondering if some of these "mild" run in and/or self resolved cases may have been below the "lung requirement" if you will - as though you needed a bigger whack in take to get it to ache one's bones and send them to the ER and shit.

Last May it snowed twice Since I was first old enough to remember as a cognitive function ... 1973 or '74 say, through about 2001... I recall seeing snow twice in May. Once was a fascinating squall that started as thunderstorm with big rain drops that immediately began bouncing as aggregate balls ( not the same as hail - ), then snow... all over a span of 10 minutes. It was 48 F when the sky shaded over, noon, from the west - Kalamazoo Michigan 1979 ...maybe '80. The other time was some random overnight snow showers behind a strong cold front in 1993 that left a smidge on grass .. The frequency changed demonstratively in 2001... In early May that year, snow showers on the Boston Common ... 1/2" in the grass as we were pilin' out of car to patron some swanky over-priced society pub. I was young and dumb and distracted by shenanigans back then, but was still offended ... Then a year later, the 18th of May and that noodle tossing coastal that brought actual accumulation to the Worcester Hills. Then in 2005, the dreaded devoured May ...and the three coastal lashings with no break between; one snowed in N middlesex on car tops... and then there was X and then X and then the X ... I mean...these are happening now... just like they are at the other end in October ( by the way ...). I roll eyes and argue that CC is fundamentally causal. I believe it is changing the general circulation eddy of the hemisphere .. blah blah ..favoring seasonal pre-lapse and lag at the transition seasons. Last year is weird in memory though. Despite those early May Leslie Neilson exit face smack events... the end of the May wildly flipped . That heat wave swept through NW/NNE ...while we remained comparatively uninspired albeit warmer than normal form SNE to down through the Mid Atlantic...

Obviously none ( or very few..) of us are actual immunologists. I fit squarely into that distinction. But I thought that although anti-body populations decline given time, the immune system has a memory - "immunological memory" . I thought the body could produce anitbodies when needed that way. B/plasmamemory and T memory cells end up with 'genomic data banks' from having already differentiated for whatever invading antigen they succeeded over in the past. An antigen gets recognized by these B cells and T-cell response ..which in turn trigger antibody production. I may not have that exact but I'm at work and shouldn't be doing this - lol ... I guess even if that is true, an antigen mutation and re-introduction to the body, probably has to be treated by the immune system uniquely - which is what and why a vax may be 'necessary' or useful after having had the earlier version of C-19... At some point, C-19 may become C-19' ( OR d(C-19) ) enough that it doesn't matter if you've had it before, you could get wiped out by a variant that is almost indestinguishable

Relax there internet cop -

That transition from Monday to Wednesday afternoon is going to be striking - one of the best summer entry in terms of rare abruptness I've seen since that 2009 ...when we had that warm front dislodge 44 F type BD/ N-door air masses, with a near 90 ...I think it was early May and it's so utterly in-germaine to anyone that no one will remember it - Lol ...But, just being fictional to make the point: we had like 44 F...then the next day, 55 with pingers in that ultra dry air sleet that sometimes falls at 51 in the spring, then it was 88 the next afternoon... Not saying that's going to happen,... but I could see it going from a deep backside CAA windy Monday ( tho not as cold as today thank god!), to flag wobbling WSW wind at 82 on Wednesday ... It'd be like getting on a flight in a cold anus known as New England, and landing in San Diego Cali going between those two days next week. That abrupt transitional affect/look has been in the guidance very consistently too.

Yup... this still looks that way, like we are about to enter a definitive and coherent either pattern change, or, (pattern change + seasonal step out)/2 happening to coincide - so the totality looks really like a different planet than anything we've seen in guidance since perhaps last August. We haven't observed +13C 850s in an off-shore flow, under 564 dm thickness yet this year... That is what the bevy of the 'more dependable/ materialized guidance types' are signaling in two eras over the next week 12 days. The front in between even looks more like a late April front, and not a -3 SD wrong air mass for a change...It looks crispy TCUs and crackling skies with heavy rains ... back to 70s the next day, with even more warm up. The Euro has a +18C as others have noted. The GFS had that yesterday .... and still carries vestiges but now the Euro is hitting that look for D9. Meanwhile the GGEM has 570 dm thickness plume doing the diurnal pulsing from DCA to PWM around that same time - that's probably deep heat in the troposphere doing that, modulated by diurnal solar...etc Most can tell for themselves at this point, today's cold belly blow is probably the last of it... at least until winter normally begins on May 9 I'm not complete sold on the idea we won't hate a period in May. The PNA is back positive D10 from the GEFs and the MJO may actually succeed in making it through Phase 8 this time - plus we have a strong typhoon recurving ...granted at a lowish angular latitude ... The wave lengths are already shortening however, so I'm not sure if these signals will parlay the same way as in the winter, when the R-wave geometry correlates better.

In any case, what a seasonal flash over the hemisphere across that 00z technology that I can find. ...I think a lot of these sites, regardless of their 'free-ness' are owned and coded by morons. I don't care what their personal espoused and/or publicly recognized Meteorological acumen really is - or if either is even meritus ... their product suites suck giant donkey balls. TT is an idiot. That guy/gal does not get how to do cross guidance model comparisons, which is a hugely essential concept and practice in deterministic weather forecasting - because his images force the viewer to always look at the latest hourly release - which f*s up any continuity when going back and forth. It's stupid shit like that... Or the cut-away graphics with no global perspectives? ... Why doesn't that site show more of the upstream and down stream hemisphere ? - it shows just the "entire Cosmos" of the U.S., because of course there's no world of kinematic mechanics going on that ultimately determines the self-centered space of the U.S., huh? It either shows: A, a defined lack of integral synoptic reasoning and understanding; or B, the product's source is free, so he/she renders what the free source gives... But, seeing as the product suite overall trips you up by sending you to the most recent panel no matter what - which is boneheaded and childish and demos he/she doesn't get continuity fundamentals .. - I wonder if these are all cut-aways and tossing out the most important pieces. It's not just TT ... other sites do stupid stuff like that.

I wish Pivotal or any like free sources came out with a lamp that when you rubbed it, you got wishes ...like total polar mercadal layouts of EPS' products - Maybe we can talk the American WX site owner(s) into allocating some of that ad-banner monies go to hiring some some Russian cyber-spies to hack into the ECMWF Orgs system ??

That's why you run in the late afternoons, seasonally ... you know? switch to mornings after Memorial Day - I can't personally run in anything less than 55 F because I hate and despise all of humanity for smite. It makes me angry.... SO, I'd rather pod-casts and iTunes ... and just accept that I'll hang out on the treadmill, and hope there's eye-candy clicking past at the gym that day. I know what ur gonna say ...blah blah treadmills make you hate and despise all of humanity for smite and makes you angry. Do you use that Gor-tex thermal sweat activation runner's garb ?

Did you try walking out side ...?

It really is a fascinating monitor hobby ... heh, morbidly so - But seriously, what is the magic number ? ... like suddenly at 62.5% ... case number halve almost unilaterally - ...or something. Just sayn' ...it'll be interesting see that happen/ .. at what % break-point. I'm waiting. I think full vax is 28 ? ... it 24 and change 4 days ago... maybe 26 ..

Luck strikes ... heh... wasn't paying attention to this aspect at all today - just grabbed my keys and left for a 10K .. .come around the backside the sky is purple-gray with distant booms... still 3 or 4K. Needless to say I was putting down some decent times in that last bit lol. Actually made it back with about 10 minutes to spare before the canopies leaned and the sheeting torrent lowered visibility. If I had waited 15 minutes to go ...

Yeah... I mean tongue-in-cheek aside, I know ... man of 'science cloth' over here. These viral dosings are neutered ... In addition to white blood cell activation they're also capable of triggering a pan-systemic histamine response - to which fever is a part ...etc..etc... but they are gutted particles and don't ultimately package any delivery. All bark but no bite ...so the next time the immune system recognizes the growl I don't 'get sick' very often either. But my life-style is ( unfortunately ...) lonely and I don't interact with v-goo-goos nearly as much as I am aware I don't - hahaha... That's an illness too ... No seriously, my exposure may not be the huge even in best of times. I have spheres of friends and stuff but they are all mask and hygiene vax believers, dads and moms with 4 to 12 year -olds... so tend to nervous and toe the line over this thing. We've looked silly in backyards at 10 foot apart donned in masks a couple of times. I'm just going with the flow and wanting not to be left out but truth be told...not thinking that setting is very high risk or anything. ah hell - a week or two I'll be a dose in and signed up for # 2 ... I'm hoping I get my parent's "vaccine variant reaction" and not my sister's. I have never been vaccinated for the flu. I have only ever been immunized for standard youngster goop. I tell you though... a year ago last November I was went through the flu - or Covid. Not sure which, but the symptom spectrum identically matched the COVID-19 description. I have not had so much as a sniffle since.

It's hard to get a bead on this ... My parents are 75 and 80 respectively ...neither presented with side effects on either the first or 2nd dose ( Moderna ) ... meanwhile, my sister is 42 and vibrantly healthy with no apparent co-morbs and she was couched for a two days worth of Covid-19. I'm almost wondering if it really means one's immune system is weak if they don't sense a reaction ? just wonderin' Does that mean she "would have" gotten hospital, and my parents, no? Seems unlikely..but, these sort of disparities abound - and no ..I don't figure this as completely anecdotal. I've been having difficulty even getting on wait lists. Apparently - this just in! - it's not such a hot idea to open up vaccines to all remaining 16 to 55-year old with no comorbids when that represents the ballast population density ... holy shit! It might cause a run-on the vaccine and overload the system... I don't know but I hit like 50 sites from Maine to Timbucktu and finally gave up yesterday after three hours of 'check back at a later date' when scheduling. I'm sure I'm not alone in that .. Then, ironically... this little mom-and-pop pharmacy shows up as offering vaccine, located in my town they're only a mile away too - weird. Was able to get on their list.. But it's like in general you have to get wait listed to be then put on a schedule - enlisted to then be listed. Lol .... what a cluster

I mean ... it's counter-intuitive, really. Obviously, more information should succeed intellect but ... we could wait 30 to 50 years of scholars and scientists to prove what we already know, just by looking around and common interactive experience in civility at a sociological level: Access to informatics acts more like a stimulant, than it does enlightenment - It's almost like we can't simply dose the mainstay plebeian population density - which regardless of rural or urban or ethnic distinction, represents the ballast of population - with fluxes of new data and information, and opinion polls and op eds and pretty glamorous iconographic effects to sell special interest modes of thinking ... and it's all just too goddamn much for those 'gates'? It's really like this Internet post-modernism is exposing that when one is just a f*n dumbass they are actually dangerous with more information - they are not filtering it right - they do not seem to posses the ability to think critically/healthy in skepticism and objectivity - they seem to lack the ability categorization into distinctive, compartmentalized understanding of reality ...leading to a daunted state of cumulative morosity and melancholia - in a lot of cases ... violence. Gee ...where's there evidence for that. While we are out here with our bloated sense of self-righteous virtuosity in the PC CANCEL culture ...shading anyone that has the audacity/temerity to point out that the average person is a f'ing idiot. Lol ..something like that. ...Uh, with all do respect ... I'm kidding at the end there a little but ... This turns cheeks and mislabels, and/or misses threat elements in a lot of ways. It enables these deviant modes of thinking. Evidence evinces over the last 20 years, that overloading lower education and/or limited experiential mentalities leads to a kind of histrionic smolder in society - a powder keg. I also think there's a separate phenomenon tearing at the fabric of culture, that the internet is pretty solely indictable for. It has to do with "emboldening" ? A mean crack-pots operating as UniBombers and theater shooters may lurk in any population sufficiently large... yadda yadda, but, there's nothing more dangerous to the stability of the whole like an idiot with a cause, and when individuals aggregate fringe ideologies in the "dark web" this, or social media that, and then 'recruit' others that are disgruntled in general and need a bj super bad... that ugly misanthrope finds comfort in any "etho-chamber" they can that gives their disgruntled bs a vector ... It's almost like some part of their psyche tells them, 'maybe I'm alone and therefore not right,' but when in groups... ah ha! Now, we have a schismatic culture of island separatists - That's a lot of longish words. The reality ...may not be quite so mordant - but there is some real truth to "strength in numbers" Proof? the "herd" stampeding on the Capitol Building... These idiots were amassed and indoctrinated, and incensed and embolden around a dissenting ideology using the Internet. ... I could turn this into a dystopian sci fi that ends in the Fermi Paradox explanation -

That's quite the mild run of the GFS operational over all through about D11/ ..12 Removing the Friday cold snap ... it's again, the last belly blow for some time. And that thing for Monday is hugely different in this run comparing the 00z Euro's evolution. The GFS really flips the sensible and actual synoptics appeals by the end of the next day, Tuesday - with temps easily 70-74 given high sun and light west wind during Tuesday afternoon. Very seasonal and normal looking fropa in a week, followed by a quick roll-out and return TX conveyor pattern. Might even get DPs up here... Its extended ... may be overdoing the warm complexion - but it's a tough call. The NAO is neggie but it's a different format this go than three weeks ago. That one was clearly a well defined and coherent blocking over the western limb of the NAO domain space, which concomitantly delivers under cut/stalling vortex regimes and we did suffer ...and probably ultimately parlayed into a snow threat even...all that - this is different. Firstly, it's coming from the GEFs - I don't know if the EPS even sees the same index mode/modality that GEFs currently has...But also, looking over the individual members, they do not nearly as well agree upon the height orientation and structural attributes of the NAO domain space nearly as concertedly as before. So in a sense...it's like the current negative curved outlook at CPC is more of a numeric accident that they happen to compute the same value as though there really were a block - I mean there just isn't much of one so I'm wondering if the -NAO is red herring this time. It'll be interesting to see if a west-based NAO might gather/emergence in time. But the reason I am not totally sold on the GFS's D12 570 dm thickness to ALB ... is because the PNA is positive out there, and that is actually situated with the outward mode of the open Pacific Basin - the strong phase 8 MJO wave with a weaker gradient/ lower velocity hemisphere might make the MJO forcing transmit it's signal more into the westerlies for an early May butt boning ... It wouldn't be snow...just aggravatingly unsummer - lol ... half kidding.. But I also think that any returning chillier regime wouldn't come with the same appeal after D10 ...because the cold sourcing is really moderating significantly as super mean.

What you suggest about the nature of anecdotal accounting as needing a filtration of incredulity, etc... is perfunctory and true. I guess when the account frequency is rather large, however, it gets tougher to ignore? That seems/appears to be were we are. It seems C-19 is less one-size fits all. As we've opined ( and incinerated heh ) in the past, we simply cannot trust any media that has any kind of profit agenda at all - ... which or course means we are all pretty much isolated from truth and stranded upon a proverbial island, unknowing what is really going on with the rest of the world ..etc.etc. lol, but for how little it is worth to say, sources more and less virtuous for their m.o. ( like NPR for example ) ... have reported more density in variance. Hmm I mean, let's consider hemorrhagic fevers ( Ebola, and Bubonic Plague...etc...): these types result in narrower symptom spectrum/expressions. With C-19 these accounts - large number of them notwithstanding... - suggest more variance. Even with Chicken Pox, or Mumps or Rubella ... Typhoid.... etc, these have a more predictable and observed systemic response regardless individual being treated. Yeah, I'm sure these other infections have anecdotal variance' too - just not as much. Or ... we could go the paranoid route and it's all a bed of lies... Lol. Maybe there is only anecdotal variance ... and no actual variance. Because come to think about about it, the "Industrial Media Complex" wants you to be facing unknowns .. Why? Obvious: because they are diabolically aware that unknown --> to fear --> clicking mouses and thumb swiping phones... See how that works... weeeeee. Really really easy to gaslight and trigger a civility of nervy birds into flight by sending dogma through the field. I like the cynical snark: The day that the Industrial Media Complex figured out how to turn mouse clicks and thumb swipes, and Television channel pings into a lucrative economic circuitry, we were doomed to ever have any hope of unbiased truth.

I don't believe at this time the Euro will be more right about Monday's synopsis over eastern New England, than the weaker appeals of the consensus and other guidance types. Its subtle, but crucially it's adding amplitude from seemingly nowhere regarding the southern stream impulse it is handling/ relaying through the TV from D4+ ... The model does this all the time at that particular temporal seam. And that sets the stage for an erroneous, subsequent over phasing with a flat wave stabbing in from southern Canada. I agree with the general notion of stream/mechanical interactions there, but the Euro typically does this... it slows down flows ( or imposes extra curvature that results in slowing...) along that D4 to 5 interface. In fact, it then does that out there further in time too... But it ends up with more amplitude than other guidance and it's own EPS mean by too much on Monday, which lends to its wrapping in deeper cold tap. We'll see, but I'm guess less there - The bigger blow of cold is Thursday ... circa Saturday. I'm guessing it is the last major cold anomaly until further notice. I see a pattern change - one perhaps augmented by mid august sun dosing the hemisphere at this point, and only getting stronger. Which ever is more important in that relationship aside, there is a pretty coherent flashing over the hemisphere in all guidance and means - even though the Euro is suspiciously over amped for Monday, thereafter even it ends up with a tepid to warm hemisphere, too.

Interesting ... very similar story to a close friend of mine and his family when it swept through their household. The mother and two children ( 5 and 7 ) resolved inside of short days with mild fevers, touch of nausea and sniffle and not much else. The dad ( 53 ) couldn't eat or drink for 10 days, running a fever 100 to 103 much of the time. Lost 25 lb... He later told me that he actually felt he was getting better; his fever broke around day six or so, and he had sent down a sleeve of saltines, along with ginger-ale and juice...etc. But per the behest of his wive, he goes into a Med stop/ER because he was coughing and was also wobbling and winded on the stairs. Turns out his blood oxygen level was dangerously low, so they hauled his ass into a gurney for a three day stint IV with a banana bag and oxy mask. They opted not to intubate ... rather just the breathing mask pulled his levels up to so-so, then normal. He is a typical middle age American dad for body type and health now ... not quite as portly as Peter Griffin, just no longer sports the sinews of his down-hill competitive skiing and semi pro cycling days. He goes from that last lift, to marital bliss - see what it got him? Lol... He's always had mild asthma, and does have an inhaler for emergencies but seldom ever needs to use it... Hard to say if that one factor - and there are/were no others leading... - could have caused all that systemic havoc, but it is what is. There are those that have comorbidity factors, contracted this thing ... walked away. There are 6-8 mile running paragons of health that go through what these guys did. So, it seems yes ...comorbid is, in itself, may contribute to severity, but perhaps there's other aspects that are just not known that may even be more important. Maybe given time science will figure out an ah-ha factor.

We have a 'store' ( I guess it is ...) near-by in town here, "Gage" is the name of it, 2A leaving the rotary E on the left side. They seem to be open like once every 2 weeks I'm guessing, because much of the time the lights are off and the parking lots empty. But on that one or two days .... look out! Line out the door with mask clad people, all standing in single file, 6 feet by 6 feet, winding around the parking lot. Never thought I'd see the day when cops are not only not arresting people for pot, but in a funny sort of metaphor, by directing they're guiding the joints and bongs to mouth - they're veritable Gonja nurses... - LOL. It's a shit show of people coming and going in throngs, while normal irate trucking and commuter traffic attempts to squeeze through that artery to the town. I was thinking the other day ... wouldn't it be funny if some compound in the Marijuana was the key silver bullet cure all for this C-19 thing - hilarious. And to really chap the asses of those that hate it being legal... turns out, you have to smoke it regularly in a kind of fun way and that makes people laugh and want to get along - god forbid. I love karma - Course, I can't smoke the stuff. F's me up ... I get weird physical reactions that are not fun and laughy but more like sad and die-y feeling so heh...maybe stick to a Long Island Ice Teas