Typhoon Tip

?? ...in any case, it is - but I'm wondering ... the flow is fast, but does that mean the atmosphere "recovers" equally as quickly ? I mean, I realize you're just posting what it shows, but .. let's say the 7th gets even a more prominent as an event, it will sweep the b-c zone well S-E and probably that 9th then gets dealt a disservice - so to speak. We may be looking at lock-in-step trade off, where we want the EPS mean to get NW more ...and if/when she does, she'll show less for the 9th ?? Wouldn't be an issue if we weren't talking two distinct events at less than 48 hour window... That said, wasn't the 1996 Dec double-trouble event like this? I'm not claiming analog or nothin' - that was unusually short turn around. So we know under the right circumstance we can't work it out. That'd be amazing - holy shit... cuz, we had like 4-6" off a regional positive bust, then 10 to 16" 30 hours later... Preeeety sure we're heading into Sunday with 80% of present snow pack in tact - That would be almost comical - 5 weeks of maddening nothing over a bare ground, then we're sitting 30" on the level boom

Goood - indirectly ... that would be a good thing. Cold tends to be the case when a pattern is too aggressively suppressed. Whenever we get that SPV elephant's ass hanging over us across S-SE Canada we're going to be dealing with some of that - it's a matter of to what degree ( pun deliberate to annoy you ..) and cold usually means the ambient baroclinic zone - I know I know ...big words get annoying but sorry that's what its f'n called - is well south of us ... ...where they get all the fun ice storms and overrunning smears while we smoke cirrus and sting our knuckles on stiff door handles

Fascinating - is there a spread plot ?? ... like this,

Not surprising ... the EPS seems to follow it's Pied Piper operational version.. I was almost hoping for it to be 'more' so ... sometimes, albeit rarely, that happens. But in any case, it's probably telling nonetheless -

Actually some semblance of -WPO there for a change ... nice

That is the most f'ed up fercockta hemisphere I think I've ever seen. If there's ever needed an example to elucidate what is meant by PV "breaking down" that's certainly gotta be on the short list of candidates to use...

Yea... the Euro at 168 and 192 shows the initial set up conducive to a whopper phase, but it can't quite get it done because the southern stream part of the total phase is running through that velocity gobbler over the SE compressed ridge .. It loses identity and so it, and the SPV end up blunted and positively tilted against it... This run and others are all just an homage to that period of time, so... Hey, by the time Monday afternoon's either celebrating or licking wounds, this may be on the modeling horizon - I think it will be.

Hmm.. I wonder if the Euro's latching onto it on this run - hints at bringing the hammer on the 11th as that is whopper SPC and dangerously ejecting S/ stream on that 12z frame - I suppose I could speed this up and go to Pivotal or whatever ...but at least as of this moment on PSU's coarser 2001 serious antiquated freebie - haha Even if the 12/13th prove it didn't bring the SPV down .. the hint satisfies as cross-guidance vulnerable. I like that period ..

Still the 11th-15th lurks ... although probably leans more toward the latter half. Quick repetition before hand - I also would consider the 9th hugely in flux as far as what that will entail - not that anyone asked...heh.

Definitely think the sensitivity (also) here is related to the orientation of the N/ stream SPV pearling going on N of the Lakes to the western/lower Maritime. Ubiquitous ...even subtle backing off on the suppressive nature in how that is integrating everywhere ( really ..) ... immediately evinces the incredible baroclinic potency - it's like under constant pressure, and as that backs off.. metaphor slowly unscrewing a cap and we hiss our way into a flat wave NJ Model low type in step.. The ICON - obviously you know all this gunk ... - was back well off that SPV aspect a few cycles ago and had a pretty impressive short duration albeit major impact, and another 3 degs of lat/lon relaxation may bring those robuster solutions back to the discussion, another 6 and we open wave-style fast moving bomb. It's really a blessed time for multi subforum interests ... to be relayed into another focus in such short order to the last.

I'm sure other's have noted this ... but just in case - The 72/78 hour GEFs have all the spread on the NW side of the consensus cyclone track - which as 101 deterministics go ..that's typically where we'd see future model runs correct toward. Noting at 84 hours, the spread persists, with some deep members there, too - few of which are < 980... In fact, all the more depthy members are in that NW skew plot, which seems to suggest there is some track sensitivity based upon the intensity - Euro/EPS outta be a hoot -

To Will's point earlier in the day (other thread...), the NAM as an 'isolated sweetener' really cannot be trusted, but trend establishing over the bevy of guidance sources lends credence. ( Obviously we don't need "reminding" that trend is not the end...so this is an evolving scenario still - just sayn' just sayn' ) The ICON - in fairness - had major short duration impact by this system over a couple runs recently ... back when it was centered more on the 8th. Also, prior to that, the Euro as we know was having an raging skizoid break with it - ...it's probable that it's governing mechanics in the general eddy were always there but the model tech at this state of the art is still lacking when there's this kind of velocity saturation/compression maelstrom characteristic messing with coherency. So we get closer in time... his system's governing mechanics appears to have been moved up in time, ...more 7th proper. That in of itself is actually a nod in favor of this thing being a real mechanics presence in the flow, because the flow is fast and the correction would tend to be to move things up - spacial-temporal placement during fast progressive flow constructs still corrects sooner.. etc. Probably, this gets earlier yet right down to now-casting ...and ends earlier too...

Ah .. ran for an errand - glad someone did ! ...talked about firing one up two days ago, but really ...the models and even individual members were buck-shot and usually lacking a coherent consensus, while also not having indicators/Tele support .. are all red-flags. It seems fitting that as this comes back there's bit more coherency surrounding the 7th - it lends to formulation of consensus

Can I use this for a thread ?

This particular trend movie is exquisitely useful for this specific scenario - LOL Seriously though ..it wonderfully exemplifies the high degree of sensitivity in the correct mass-field handling of the totally integrated field. The compression locks the whole thing from JB to Florida...where if the N/ stream SPV N moves even a little bit, en masse the flow geometry all he way to Florida adjusts in concert - the wave ends up more NE trajectory instead of E and that enhances cyclogen response... and blah blah - But, notice the N / stream is slightly less suppressing across this sequence of frames. Nice contribution !

Yup ..I just found the evidence for that ... This is looking like the old bate-in-switch two-step routine in the guidance. You know... mid range drops it .. focuses on the wrong thing for couple few cycles ( like the 00z Euro? - which I'm still a little confused about that one ). Only to have the 8th return -

Well ...it was originally the 8th ... I'm not sure we are really tracking the same feature frankly - I admitted that in a few morning snark intoned posts - ... I'm trying to wend this 7th system back in time vs modeling ...and I'm not sure it is even the same thing. I don't presently think it is? It is possible it has just been moved up 24 hours in time, owing to a very fast flow - it's part of the uncertainty manifold of this sort of compression shit ( god I fuggin hate it too - ) Anyway, I think if the Euro bangs the NW trend drum at 12z, that is pragmatically entering the Euro's very high verification scoring window ( being < 4.5 days out...etc) - sure.. I suspect the trend - if I'm gathering this right - started on the 06z FOR THE 7TH ... ? lol I just think in honesty, if I had started a thread two days ago for the 8th.... I wouldn't be sure this wasn't a separate manifestation out of the ether of an inherently "uncertainty-rich" pattern

Truth is ... no model should ultimately be totally ignored - I'm just bustin' ballz I know there's 'need' for lack of better word to engage in the modeling ...almost like going to an art show, when and where those that engage in fantastic works of art ... get an emotional response there too. It's sought - I get it... But in the practical sense, as I have said in the past .. these models do not arrive at a given solution that "can't" happen? Perhaps less than likely, and their physics may be missing something that makes them prone to solutions that just don't go on to verify ( ha! Like, the prescient line of sight into the intentions of God ).. But, their solutions are not IMpossible. How's that for bargaining - ignore the oppressive reality of very low probability in lieu of rationalism - nice That said, here's my crazy "unlikely" contribution to the morning's gallery .. . the 06z ICON painting of 6-10" of flat wave silk !

No .. you guys are bargaining to make the NAM right - difference ... but okay, Scott brilliantly evasive tactic using humor is understood.

just trying to make sure people are paying attention LOL

Okay ... did anyone mention that the 06z ICON actually had a low end warning snow for everyone save James ( supplying justice to the cosmos even ...) ? For the 7th

You guys are spending waaaaay too much time philosophizing the NAM lol So it's not even the 8th ... it's the 7th now... okay - was the 7th on the 06z Euro then?? Let's get this "bent" more than it is already: the last two days, we've focused on the 7th, the 8th, 9th and 10th ... while I - of course - bloviated to an empty room over the 11th through the 15th, all over a-b-c-d-?E? events happening in x-y-z/ 2.5 day-span time intervals... Jesus, we don't need a Sven diagram for this cluster f, we need a new General Theory of Relativity

I assume we mean Sunday evening in coverage here - I was thinking when I looked at the last three cycle -trend of the NAM, that this smacks pretty painfully as the typical NAM-o-rama-ding-dong circus clown act of popping the low deeper and ominously NW like frames in a movie, clicked along in three or four short cycles. You know...go to bed, wake enabled. Lol. I mused internally, '..This may even do this one more run and get even more impressive, before boom boom boom three cycle trend goes half way back to the original nothing...' And what we end up with is a flat wave of 1/3 potency overall, tickling LI/S RI and the Cape with light snow... towing along an angry bevy of blue-balled storm neurotics It's not a declarative forecast lol... I just have the experience - ... the NAM between 48 and 60 hours back in the day, almost always had a NW position bias... Now, granted...we are out there in the 72 hour frame, but... I'm not sure if the former has ever been addressed when they increased it's range to 84 hours 10 .. 15 years ago whenever that happened. I may have a bias against it for those early years - sure... Will's right - the NAM is not alone though... I am not dim or stubborn to that notion. So I guess ... grudgingly, we have table the notion -

I wish we could adapt a rule/policy that all references to specific events must include a date said event in question is referring ... If the post does not contain a date it's content is intending to hone .. it gets torn up shredded in an anime where the posts material is destroyed right before the poster's eyes.

-- Two vaguely coherent systems out there actually .. The 8th, now on life-support, and as of 00z the Euro introduces the 9th more aggressively than prior runs - and apparently something's up with the 06z Euro? Not sure which feature is in discussion regarding the 06z Euro. Scott's right - whatever happens of either of these two systems they are in and out with rapidity. The compression/speed saturation doesn't lend the other way. Could be sprayed by several 1-3 or 3-5" ers over the next 10 days. I wouldn't even be shocked if the 8th came back, and 9th pancakes S again... Fast flow with high sensitivity for latitude placement based on utterly invisibly subtle physical exertions, means that positioning these 'events' in space and time will require shorter lead to gather confidence in what happens and where. -- I mentioned later in the evening last night about the 11-15th event period of interest.. As is typical at this sort of deep range, whatever is triggered in that range, in models, is wobbling spatial-temporally .. ranging to other models not having anything. I have seen it back closer to the 12th, 13th ...18z GFS had a juggernaut centered on the 14th... 00z, bombs eastern NE with a ferocious cyclone through the Harbor. These are variations that - to me - appear tapping into the emerging general numerical instability ..not necessary honing ( duh ) anything necessarily real. But there may be tremendous baroclinic gradient between 35 and 45 N .. left in the wake of next week's -EPO cold soak/compression flow.. Rather classical, regime change then offers correction event potential. Last three night's tele progs at CPC indicate the -NAO renewal ..and most op. and their ens means flag west limb variant ... whilst the PNA tandem rises in the GEFs mean to ~ +1 SD... telecon convergence ... But first we deal with these smaller synoptic perturbation ... and keep dreams alive that one over-produces. I don't think the ceiling is too high in this regime-like pattern incoming because aforementioned compression not allowing for differential processes to unfurl ... but, who knows - the ICON solutions from the other day, while obviously unlikely, didn't formulate in a physical vacuum of forcing in that guidance so it shows that nothing's impossible. Or like this 12z NAM run ..heh.. but, the NAM's patented NW bias beyond 48 hours of 10 years ago ...I don't know if that tendency has somehow been corrected and that smacks as that. It's like this in this maddening type of flow construct - yin and yang pro and con head game.