Typhoon Tip

Man... Euro's Fri/Sat in a dead heat for top scoring on best days of the season thus far. WNW d-slope flow under 850 mb of +6 C by day ends under a solar max sun, of course that's predicated on the amount of sun ... The basic synoptic/coarse parameters look like 77 F with people driving off roads across fields for having slipped into comas operating heavy machinery on heroin type days - Thing about the Euro, I've noticed it tends to be a bit much with its RH fields at 300, 500, and 700 mb levels in its mid/ext ranges. So, I'm not sure with steadily rising heights those days, and a surface ridge stalled over PA enforcing katabatic flow through NE ..if we're really going to be that overcast ... I bet that's sunnier.

I wonder if that comes down to getting cutesy with the modeling parameters specific to geo-classing at regions ... ? I remember pretty clear and cleanly the early stuff from the 1980s and 1980s that was papered on the subject - I know it was significantly more coarse... It's interesting that these later generations are contrary perhaps at more regional scales - I wonder if they 're-ran' those early versions, if they still suggest heavier rain-fall. As far as the 2010 to 2040 ... that may fail, or succeed ... I mean, if get into a drying/drought mode more signIficant at at continental scale, we drop snow anyway - it's an ambrosia of opportunity to mislead due to conflicting layers that 99.9999% of audiences have no f'ing clue how to critically absorb - LOL

They will get it wrong because there is no responsibility to real science and vetting practices in media - or eroding ...badly, but - the snow "increase" in the first place was predicted by climate models to occur in a warming atmosphere that holds more PWAT density going into precipitation mechanics. I mean that pertains to all of it.. Not just snow. Rain too... It's not like we dismiss climate change - just wanna make that clear...seeing as despite the drought in New England -LOL... Simply put, they'd be wrong over that as a signal, when the signal is/was the anticedent increase before they got to it. I think- -personally ... what happens is that it continues to snow harder relative to storm, pattern, and seasonal climate inferences ... either scale or dimension, until it declines because more and more of it gradually begins to occur as liquid rain. Who knows when that will be... But obviously, we can always have seasonal anomalies that are at times anti-correlating anyway - those'll get f'up too

Mm ... that started the moment along the era-time gone past when the Industrial Media Complex realized how to turn every thumb swipe, mouse click, or television channel ping into a means to moving monies and make profit ... Or, to your point - maybe what you say is just exposing the same phenomenon from a different turn of phrasing... Either way, when the IMC wired economics around informatics, we were doomed to ever see or hear of anything from a truly honest, nor unadulterated delivery. I mean, they always made ..or attempted to do so, make money off news but it's now seems it approaches unconstrained equivocation (or constrained by the 'ethics of profit' ether which means the former - ) Not meaning to bloviate at anyone ...but I cannot impress enough that the urgency of real nature only comes at you at the 'scary' rate of what you see, right now, standing up, walking to the window, and gazing out at the hillsides all afternoon until they fade under the auburn sky of sunset into darkness. Yet, you'll find yourself still standing there ...waiting. Somewhere in the mise en science of the spectacle they create, the engineering to super stimulate people into continuing to swipe, click and ping media tech... there are kernels of dismissible truth, or at worse manageable crisis ... guess what? - somewhere else. Maybe every 100 years some island sinks somewhere ... It's perhaps hard to get people's heads outside of the media bubble ... but nothing out there is really all that real. It's just exposing - nothing more.

Hard to tell which way this will morph .. the D6/7 ... 10 range. Toe dip version: The EPS, GEPs are in solid agreement and match the operational versions well within error expectation for this sort of time lead... and the coup de gras is that the GFS's own ensemble mean is punching the floor out from underneath the PNA mode... so, I'm willing to haunch and hedge on the side of significant and more 'personal penetrating appeal of warmth' ( hopefully that offends at least someone!). Not sure about how much, but I could see 70/50 .. (milder nocturnal) particularly D8-10, then ranging to 80/60 ... for now. Those could be conservative ranges. In fact, D3-6 may end up balmy just be high sun through +6 at 900 mb. Can't account for clouds...But the signal's been gaining momentum in the dispersive telecon layout ( Americans), but also in the said ensembles. Longer version: The 00z synoptics of the GGEM and Euro operational runs off the 00z cycle were in impressive overall agreement across that run of days out there. They both materials rather obvious -PNAP pattern, featuring a Great Basin type trough anchor, mass balanced well/coupled by a +1 ... +2 improving height anomalies, spanning 100 to 70 W in girth and stacked clear to the 70th latitudes over eastern Canada... The GFS is having trouble committing to the ridge aspect in the N, though - an aspect I am suspicious of. For one, I want the ridge and heat at this time of year ? Mm hm. I admit that... and, admit to my human difficulties in resisting the that transcended allure of thigh tones exposed below the hem-line of the GGEM and Euro's synoptic mini-skirt looks. Because they so well sync up with those desires ... I may have difficulties resisting. Struggling for objectivity in the debate ... I cannot help but wonder if the operational GFS is just doing what I warned it would do, ..back in DJF of this recent winter, which is never allow warm domes and ridging to bloom over eastern N/A during ensuing warmer months. Why? Because it has a kind of "quota" problem with lowering heights too much above the westerlies/ ambient N, over the northern latitudes ... It appears to be a cumulative aspect, as well, where it is subtle or even not there in the short side of the short range, ... ranging 1 to 3 dm ( so still unnoticed) of error by 72 hours ...then, 6 or so dm by 144 hours... etc... 12 out there by D10. Look at the 00z operational Euro over Canada and compare? Note the circuitous 546dm hgt isopleth by 168 hours: at most points along that line the GFS ends up farther south than the Euro ( or the GGEM in this case...). That's not intended to suggest these latter two are inherently more likely to be correct than the GFS; however, since the GFS is ALWAYS doing this... I find it hard to believe that it is ALWAYS right ... ( piece of shit..) Hyperbole a little, sure. Probably, in some weird inversion of error mechanics, ...the day it does admit to a D10 pattern change/ridge, it'll do a 2017er/July thing maybe... What this does: Because it ends up with excessively lowered heights across those polar-side domains, colder north means the flow everywhere has to integrate with more gradient (due to obvious height compression therein...). +d(Gradient) = +d(velocity). As an aside, an aspect of the model's bias that is buried insidiously because the flow all over the planet has been/is faster than normal, anyway - probably owing to the HC expansion mechanics noted since 1974 as part of CC..etc..etc. How deliciously deceptively hidden that is ... Anyway, this then runs on to effect the kinematic of aspects such as wave migration speed, wave morphologies at all scales really... but it is particularly notable in causing too much 'progressive' .. or flat faster synoptic evolution. Faster flow doesn't like curved surfaces ... But it is also counter-intuitively adding mechanical power into individual waves. It just happened up here off the coast with that NW Atlantic storm this last week.. The GFS was too deep with cold heights leading, then, the faux gradient it accumulated creates a local synergistic bias ( constructive interference with the S/W wind max(es) ) ... such that the governing S/W ends up stem winding and bombing the low ... Boo rah the Euro for not serving that shit. The Euro's got its own bag of annoyances to consider every run, too ... which can give rise to amplitude biases in the mid/extended range ... it just gets there through different means. Along it's 00z cinema, it appears to over-asses has little tough nodes at D3 and again D6 ...which still allow for the ridge evolution but they are likely not going to be as deep/evolved - so if anything the 'correction vector' with those is to think they'll be less interfering in reality.

Yup... this is what is referred to in statistics&analysis as an 'outlier' - an anomaly relative to the mean of a much larger data density. - you know that ... just sayn' I mean obviously, when by virtue of shear size of an 'event arena' in nature, that concomitantly means there are/apt to be differential environments contained within said arean ... any one of which can and will response to event arrival/passage through at different rates based upon blah blah internal favorable vs unfavorable aspects. Doesn't Maine engage in a lot of those 'keys in the fishbowl' parties ? ...just kidding Maine likely isn't the only place that is 'nook' bucking trends - ... but yeah, doesn't do or say much to help the attitudes of those in/around any lingering festering ulcers on the map of COVID, no

Me neither. Altho I was never really in or around any kind of hot zone ... still the last diag was early March - nada since. Un or sort of related, I’m sensing a growing indifference ...maybe issue exhaustion. But yeah anecdotal ... I suspect the greater accounting of those who got it and resolved over the fewer that rang up 100 grand in med bills might be getting people to mutter to themselves

Talked to momma for 1 1/2 hrs on the phone today. Heh ... I figured since she gave me 9 months + 18 years of patience we should be even now. Fauci... “...time to rethink the indoor mask mandate. “ citing vaccine numbers. As in be more liberal I was noticing ... 260 million one dosed. So what ... 260 m @ 78% protection .. we should already be seeing a taper off of new cases - right? Logically the ambient risk has to already be substantially reduced - that’s just stat math.

May has been a winter month now 4 out of the last 6 years then.

66 here at noon ...

The cooling in the 70s also correlated with a resonate superposition in solar minimums - not as extreme as now ... but in the the 11 and 22 year cycles ... just fwiw

There's a personal preference for every degree on the temperature scale, and every watt per square meter along the sun on the dial. I have noticed a 'grousing bias' tendency during days of pall overcast. Doesn't even matter as much if it is dry - just cloudy. Hearkens to a touch of s.a.d. maybe? For me it is temperatures ... particularly, in the spring. Bad temperature days can get me a tad disillusioned ... and if there happens to be an over-arcing theme of Pandemic and climate catastrophe, gun violence, WOKE oppressive fascism and lack of getting laid, that makes the former magnified. It would be nice to put down the internet, television, ...iphones and the like, and wonder through parks and farmer's markets, arts shows and picnic venues, under a nape bake light wind conveying lilac memories instead of all that bleakness, huh - Still, at least it is not wet. At least the next time it is schedule to get wet, is overnight tomorrow night, leaving Sunday's sun and razor lower level warmth in light wind, unscathed. I don't think we're escaping the packing pellet air mass during the first half of the week - it may not do that under any virga busted cu fall, but the air mass would support it. And thus completing the 7th f'ing year in a row of stolen May calendar space in row, with this weird shit. I just hope that afterwards... round day 5, the Euro camp is right about the defined moderation of the 850 mb layout... In fact, from that point until D10 ..those 5 days show an abeyance of cold intrusions into the GL/OV/NE of 0C air at that baser metrical sigma level. With west wind tendencies much of the time, and no real apparent theta-e transport, that may finally get us into a 70+ actual repetition of subsequent afternoons for the first time. Not these drive-by warm pop shots followed by garden stunter CAA deals. This bs is causing our montly means to be above normal, while concealing how cold it is synoptically. Global warming seems almost as much about hiding itself insidiously - I wonder if the models forecast that: 'fantastically above normal while freezing ballz off'

Day 6 thru 10 of this 12z Euro please ... subtle fly in the ointment mid way through ...some cloud debris in the M/A to CT perhaps... but otherwise, 68 Thursday to 76 the following Sunday with weak gradient vectored off-shore, and low RH deep layer from the Lakes to the Maritimes ... Haven't seen a polish on that range of any guidance really since the phantom heat wave runs of early April.. heh. anyway, ...even tho the tele's are lowering in correlation, the PNA is falling and the NAO is neutralized in that area in the GEFs, and seeing this operational Euro fit with that spread is like ding dong the witch is dead appeal - Hopefully it really is... Oh, and the MJO is finally completely collapsed(ing)

and nano-tech !

I think we're talking about those extreme outlier events tho - ...those don't settle back and disappear so readily into the longer term mean smear, either way, and will still shine rather brightly above others in columnar of data. I mean sloppy example, +1, -1, +2, -3, -1, +4, +2, -1, +38, 0, +1, -7, -8, -2, +1, +27,.... etc.... The frequency of ostentatious giddy outliers is up. I think he wants to see those Matterhorn events in supposition to whether they are skewing due to frequencies. Single can be single day or maybe a week... That 80+ Feb day back in 2017? ...was embedded in a week of 60s to near 70 - don't quote. So that would be a standout series, true.

Bingo - and absolutely ... That's really been the ball game - when it "could be warm" ... verification goes way above - and we're not talking just busting warm side. Like seriously and creepy skewed. C'mon people... I've seen it nudge 80 in f'um February - get a grip and a fear... Lol... bunning it a little there for fun, but a 30+ high temp - ...heh. It seems immoral how little we have 'awed' in that just because of this predilection for snow and cold preoccupation of user compulsion in here. Ha ha, it's like asking the asylum to render an objective concern - hahahaha... I'm kidding ... but, it's like what my grandfather used to say about the Democrats - he was mid last century pedigree of Republican: " you give the bastards an inch and they'll take a mile" ...LOL The atmosphere has been doing that - the models give an inch of warm bias and we're buried under skyscraper temperatures. If a model outlook offers any sort of higher confidence warm patina to an outlooked synoptic complexion, you're all but guaranteed a 20 + departure. Boom. Bank it, smoke it do what you gotta do, but you're wearing shorts and t-shirts in February. In very short concise terms: Point departures of exceedingly large values are markedly increased in frequency since 2000. Monthly means may be getting weighted upward. I mean ... this is all predicated on the assumption of fact - but... I can assure you with 100% confidence.. .in the first 30 years of my life, I never ever saw 70 in Jan or Feb... Now, exposure to that sort of antic has me almost sort of use to it. Interesting...

Maybe ...yeah, mixing this, ...weird anomalies that... Just rolling snake eyes at crappes There's probably some feeding of 'bad luck' The thing is, it's not really showing too well at the last 45 days of temperatures. I mean April finished above normal despite having an [ overzealously forecast] snow event in its midst. And May was modestly positive through D4 - though I haven't seen 5 or 6 in the till/means just yet. Certainly doesn't "seem" like it's been warmer than normal in that way . I'm wondering why the huge disparity between expectation and truth ...or, if we have just been dealt a kind of sinister bad luck of only being cold and shitty like ... only when we can feel it. Lol

Sounding lapse rates are underrated, too - I've see 48 dps with nickle hail and multi-pulsed CG bombs shattering pine trunks because it was like -40 C at 500 mb or something. Okay ...so 'zaggeratin' a little but you get my point. Also, llv DPs don't mean shit as much as cloud/condensation source DP ... deep layer "wet" layers mix down as the morning sounding starts to diurnally tumble/mix. Plus, entrained wetter layers where is elevated conditional/marginal instability ..these factors can drive a sun 38 F decoupled DP ...to a 50 F core at 2:30 pm

I just think it is amazing that in a hockey-sticking warm CC era and under solar max sun ...this air mass wins. The Euro just can't modify the air and still undeterred, plumes sub 850 mb air down as far as Dayton OH... Basically, zero demonstration for physically atoning for seasonal change/climate - I don't know how much of that is error ... I mentioned this a little bit ago ... - this is the 5th or 6th of these gem-like days that parlayed out of the look these models have been dooming us with since about April 10. So, it does seem there is a bit of an emergent reveal that the models are overly pessimistic and perhaps failing on the cool/misery/ rhea side. hmm

Yeah, I was Moderna ... first dose ten days ago. No reaction that I was aware. Still, I have family that ranged from 2 day stints on couch and loathing ... to no reaction from either dose. But not sure if they took Moderna or Pfifer or whatever... I guess the safe route is that if one has the latitude to decide, clear your calendar for a day or two afterwards in the off chance of some dull headed waken state of fugue. Chalk it up as a one-off systemically mandated time off.

Mordancy or Fister ? I hear it matters... actually I've heard a bunch of what ultimately may be shit, ranging from: "if you get a reaction from the first shot of either, that means you had Covid once, whether you self resolved or not" "if you get a reaction from the first shot of Moderna, that means you had Covid once, whether you self resolved or not - not true for Pfifer" "If you don't get a reaction from the first dose, you're doomed to couch for 3 days of misery on the 2nd no matter what, regardless of either" "If you get a reaction to the first shot, you are less likely to get a reaction to the 2nd at all - but if you do, it'll be like the first reaction" "If you get no reaction to the first shot, you get 10 times worse reaction from the 2nd and it's really bad fear monger yadda yadda CNN " "Moderna has nano-bots that's why it is reactive more so than Pfifer" "Pfifer isn't really a vaccine - it's a nano-chip delivery system, which is why you don't actually get an immo-responose" "Anything that sounds at all plausible... no matter how impossible, must have actually happened" - the modern variant of Occam's razor

Lol, at this hour ? ... shrooms - c'mon, get with it. Nah truth be told I haven't had beer in 6 years. In fact, nada on everything. Wait - I had ...maybe a half ounce sip of champagne at a 50th b-party about two years ago...otherwise, zip consumption. No ... I'm not mandated by AA, or medical etc. I just felt back then like my life was devoid of particularly meaningful pursuits ...and failing to realize those while nightly love-making with wine and liquor ... mmm - not a relationship one should defer to unless they really do want to be mandated by AA or medical. I mean I was starting to feel it, anyway. I sort of realized that I might be at a fork in the proverbial choice-roads of life there at the time. I was either going to commit to end of life by 60 ...or, maybe fight to the bitter end - because it doesn't matter whether one succeeds or wins; it only matters that they were the best person they could have been ... that sort of schmaltz... it does sort of mean more to people as they get older. I dunno the short is I don't drink. I don't miss it. It's been so long now, in fact, that even a night of junk food gives me sensations like I musta drank and smoked a cigar the night before. I've gotten hang-over-like symptoms off chili dogs and a coke. You don't realize how adaptive your body is to toxins until you ween off of them for a substantially long amount of purification - and it may take years to really recoup that last 20% ? Once there, you can see what you've left behind and your body tells you. I mean... you stop drinking for 30 days ... you feel better. Your belly may shrink a tad. BP comes down a little. Cholesterol improves... But, that's all at the 60th or 70th percentile recovery of core. To get that 95% innocence back ...you kind of need 5 years of organic sleep and diet with zero exposure to anything a Capuchin Monkey wouldn't normally engages with. Basically ... a life-style change so pure and deep and comprehensive that you create a gestalt that favors a new universe of reality.. Very few people get there - I'm still trying ... and crying.

I'm sure at some point today radar will expose a west moving sinuous s- breeze boundary showing up to end the party like cold cops that always felt sort of awkward and left out in high school and thus sought careers that automatically appointed them alpha status ... Seeing as they couldn't get to that social status by their own accord/peer recognition during those formulative years of their budding narcissism ... ...but for now, we rage and rave and soak in the splendor of why I never became an on-camera Meteorologist. Trying to imagine how dumb and embarrassing that would have looked up on telestrator. Day 1 with a partly to mostly cloudy, 52, in a raw east wind over eastern New England coastal zones ... would shine on really asinine. That's pretty squarely and honestly what I thought we'd be looking at ... I think the reason for my failure is that a hate and despise god ( anyway ..) but definitely at this time of year and that attitude isn't providing the best lens - lol... just maybe. I was way the fu off on today's sky. Shit... I looked at the models ...they had 70% RH at 700, 500 .. 300 etc sigma levels. That is typically indicating at least banded/shredded alto stratus and fractal spooge.. Not such deeply azure blue, so mysteriously deep and clear, as to haunt the interstellar medium lurks on the other side of its prism purity. 60 already right down into Boston. No wind... But the gradient being so week ...it probably does get interrupted by a cold whack back boundary propagating to slosh up against Worcesters els. This is the 5th or 6th day this has happened this spring ... recently over the last three weeks, where the day ended up gem-like despite my own interpretation of guidance.