Typhoon Tip

Welp ... in 1987 this would be a 4th period rare blizzard watch ...

Yeah I dunno. This looks like an above moderate event at this point. Matter of how much so - that will iron in time. Could be bigger than some think.. But too bad! Some will lose-out, relative to that. Someone, somewhere, always will. 'Name of the game... And to them this will be moderate...pedestrian...pick the woe-is-me adjective. They'll dust off and live to witness the next boning somewhere else while they get the EOF3 tornado later that summer... And the SE zones cry and bitch their way into a Hurricane Bob scenario while the 30" Orange MA snow storm gloaters will have just spent 4 months in a drought and half to watch green tropical-mode rain curtains miss to their SE for being just out of reach... It's a dumb engagement if one is in here for e-tropic highs - like any addictive behavior... but I'm wondering...wait, what the fu was I talking about... Yeah, so, yesterday, I was concerned that this might try to gather around a more coalesced/potent look once additional less-than-noticed mechanics relayed off the Pacific during the day today and here we are. That/its influence on this thing may not be done? We could have seen the beginning of a two cycle modulation and actually ...the cross-hairs on the hemispheric signal isn't over NJ with the closed 500 mb..it's more like SE of ISP ... NJ works ..sure. But if this whole structure did what you said there above...nah, it's within the framework -

I start to wonder at times if this engagement is really about wanting or seeking an arena that enables one to be where they truly want to be: in a neurotic crisis mode - ...something like that. I mean, we pine and hand-ring for fun in the models, "fun" shows up on the models. Then it's 10X's more energy expended nit-picking reasons to go, "OH god! not again " Hey, that JMA solution was insane ... It has a 20 dm of height reduction spanning 24 hours, and parks the nucleus over Worcester 12z Wed morning... If that happens, that low it has 983 outer GOM is actually going to be southwest where those isobars are stressed/oblong, and that's a raging choke blizzard. Course...the JMA -

I wonder of this will do that rare sky before a coastal, where you see virga bulbs and tendril moving actually WSW aloft ... Normally, that virga phase/entry into the event, the evaporation is pre-closure up around the 700 mb level, so the motion isn't west yet... it's still SW--> NE.. Meanwhile, town flags wobble or taut NE down low with whipping grains just before the first aggregates dance beneath the lamp lights in the blue tinted dusk.. You're like, this feels big - But roughly around 18z on Monday... across the area, look to those skyware features. I bet they're moving WSW early ... because the modeling ( as you've noted wrt to the GGEM ..etc..) are closing off earlier, and deeper, and I suspect the 700 disk is about to do so quickly ...maybe prior to the saturation below.. There's some argument as to whether that arc moving N in the bevy of guidance is an initial IB ... But it also looks to me like this thing is establishing a CCB conveyor in tandem, so it's difficult to know what is sort of a quasi trowal/instability axis, versus - fascinating. Maybe collocating multiple processes

things is ... ( and it offers you a defense anyway ..- ) I don't personally think the we are in a moderate to strong planetary-conductive mode of La Nina... I think we are in a low amplitude mode ( and NCEP is repeatingly referring to it as just that.. "low amplitude La Nina" - some one down there in DC is on to this). From there ...I have a my John-ism supposition that the HC ..which mimics, may ( and I believe does frankly - ) be constructively interfering with the La Nina, because both distribute the SST metric similarly; sea surface stressing/increases in the HC's easterly Trade wind mass balancing/ at low latitudes, to counter the insane speeds at west vectors/mid latitudes...etc... strongish HC circulation general eddy logic .. I think the HC is fuggin with the ENSO climo by exaggerating cool regimes and attempting to bury warm ones ...Not absolute - god I hate that... These are spectrum'ed influencers ..( I know you get that, just in general). But I've also talked about this super-position hypothesis before ...and also still believe that it is almost impossible to parse out the relative forcing contribution of either... I do wonder though ...if the La Nina mode was assume bigger in amplitude based upon SSTs alone, that may not reflect in the total hemispheric mode(s) if the SSTs were assumed to be entirely La Nina driven - the latter may be over-assessed in that spirit.

I just find it so ironic that here we are in the midst of an empirically/verified fastest hemispheric mode ...probably the most so ever observed - maybe even associated with GW/climate change pressing against boreal winter climate... whatever - And this? This thing could be a 30 hours of steady > median impact ... with 12 hour embedded at major. Could be - there's time.. Even I find this difficult to contain honestly. I mean I won't lie - Meteorological stuff is built into my soul and this is a passion ( among others I have...) ...anyway, depending on the pervasive nature that realization pans out will determine ... historic? I don't know - cannot be ruled out, though. I cannot impress enough, this was never fully realizing the synoptic/super -synoptic hemistphere. They don't have to, is the thing...sometimes you only get 40 .. 60 ... 70% returns ... At this thing's governing hemispheric signal, even 80% efficiency/return would be historic ( and you can never really get 100% - that's a theoretical limitation and entropy makes it an asymptotically approached limit ) I think we are getting close ( obviously estimating...) to the 2/3rds, may 3/4 return threshold as is, where prior was about 50 ~ The problem is... the EPS mean 500 mb height for 5 straight clicks ( c/o TT's access) have shown two things: -- this is steadily deepened/ positioned S toward the historically infer -able bull's eye for stalled/protracted events... being one; -- but earlier in this thread I discussed the slow/duration-al aspect of this as [probably] rooted in the fact that it is a teleconnector "Lagrangian region" ( rhetorical license) ... where it is caught in amber in the planetary seam, between ridge waves... Thus, the system in total may move along at the R-wave modulation timing - that's code for quite slow. When looking at the EPS mean ...that gives the "look" of being a stable scenario from west of California to S of NS ...? That's why that looks that way. It's like the thing pauses for a while .. Another artful observation .. it seems like the Earth does this once in a while ... regardless of the system. If a given system over longer-termed observation is dominated by one characteristic ( in this case 'speed' ) .. when something comes along and offsets/perturbs that constancy ( anomaly relative to the longer term anomaly) it goes on to disproportionately f* the shit out of the system as punishment for the prior stasis - hahah... Like it's our fault we enjoyed of a smooth winter for 5 weeks - now we're gonna pay. Muah hahaha... No but seriously, the other way some times seems to yaw violently. Interesting.. Like, that marathon runner in the 1970s the wrote that book about heart health, had a pulse rate of 40 beats per minute while relaxed...was cut up and svelte and veiny in shape... found on the side of the road having died instantly from a massive coronary while out on one of his 10 mile stints - like what

( made it to page 76 of this marathon but stopping at a hydration station - phew...) Wow ...not a big fan of these type of products ( my contribution over the years elucidates that - I almost never post anything based upon them tho rarely...). That image on the left ( more recent ..) is a flat out K.U. ...guessin' leve 2 approaching 3 NESDIS impactor. It's multi-regional, and this thing's under-footing hemispheric support had those that look to it all along...and we should note that models have been relaying ownership of more eastern PA pummeling back and forth during the pick-and-choose earlier ranges of this system's model monitoring .. .I think we'll see a consensus more in line with the left panel going forward, with one, two .. or four cycles worth of one or two models trying but failing to f it up... But another 3-5" tacked on to that distribution ( which I'm thinking is more plausible than not...) in that mean coverage and we move the NESDIS to a 3/4 contention... But 2/3 is probably major by virtue of regional inclusion - that's massive up there folks... Mammoth envelopment to realize 12" ...that's hard to do ... Usually ( think about this..) you get a regional 8-11" with a band or two approaching 24 ... Dec 17 kept the big daddy goods focused along that axis.. but, that mean distribution like that means you gotta have a few individual members blowin' the top of the climate books on this thing.. .but more importantly atones to aforementioned orbital perspective of this thing...as we get closer, the model blends, ens means, and individual members are trending toward the erstwhile unrealized maximization of this... that's usually a red flag - In principle alone ...that trend it gushing!!

Yeah me too - I did a 6.2 .. though only ran 5.75 of it.. But I only had modest right hamstring discomfort this time so I think that's finally improving. Man, those things linger for ever and ..oh wait -

Looking at the 00z EPS/GEFS means in their respective handling ... I would be inclined to ask, 'how about now'? I will hold off pending both this 12z suite, but also because that sounds douchy - lol ( Also- I am presently on page 69 of this thread and can see it's ballooned by another 12 clicks ...so I am behind, so taken with a grain - ) I would not toss the 06z ICON solution's trend for robuster 500 mb depth ... The hints that are carried through those frames suggestive that the model "wants" to truly stall and protract a CCB in the area, is highly supported by the general tapestry of the EPS/GFS means... I feel the 00z Euro was the right idea in bumping back NW but I am a little non-plussed that it's 500mb hgt depth went the other way by 4 or 6 dm after the close/quasi closure - the EPS mean being deeper is still the better fit for the larger orbital telecon/super-synoptic and observed synoptic surrounding hemisphere, and this thing has been shirked for realization of that offers the region between 90W-60W and ~ 35N and 55 N boxed region along. I have maintained that ...altho admittedly, pounding the moderate snow + duration)/2 = bootleg major sort of Broadway production, but I'm seeing attempts by the above ens means to get this more fully realized. The 00z/06z ICON blend actually looks like a better surface featured physical representation of what this thing should do... It seems every model is carrying something that seems more reasonable withing a bag of their own idiosyncratic distractions. Take the NAM ...I agree with the 06z solution that keeps the QPF arc in tact around the NW arc, but it seems to be too progressive with the lower troposphere in general ..given the 500 mb is also trending toward a NY Bite anchor point. about that - notice the 500 mb 522 dm height core in the ICON!! Over NY, ...implodes than pivots SE under LI toward 96 hours... That type of motion usually means there is a F- wara effect going on with a lower tropospheric vortex that is pivoting W temporarily... Yet we're not quite seeing that depicted ...that's uneasy and I thnk this overall situation could modulate toward a major event anyway from NYC-PWM ... Hammer's cocked and the psycho is gently squeezing the trigger - it's that close The title of this thread can be changed from watching closely to Immanent, with 'major characteristics looking more possible' or something to those affects.

Nah ... suspect models are in the initial stage of formulating a higher impact consensus ... likely to see a notch higher at similar thermal fields coming from other guidance moving forward. Whack interpretations… The GFS is a vast improvement over prior runs and is falling into said line with trend - some people need to take a break. Lol In fact it’s even possible that a deeper surface pressure south of Long Island, quicker, might trigger more of a northerly component to the wind and cold at that ... and that locks a coastal front into Southeastern mass and it will not move

This ICON run may not happen but it sure is captivating ... that’s maybe the best run I’ve seen .. close tie with perhaps the Euro run from 12z yesterday was that ? anyway ... discounting those unlikely / over processed gapping west of ORH that’s a high end warning / border blizzard. Slow movement of obscene frontogen proficiency across the region likely is 4/6 hours of S+ with routine wind gust 35 ... splitting hairs in 24-26 F shattering 15::1 i realize it’s a depiction from a less popular model but that piece is relating in now and this happens - have a feeling the Euro May up the ante

So the ICON arrived with stronger jet mechanics feeding in and we see a definitively more consolidated sfc low/further west with a higher impact lashing of snow and windy/storm complexion on this 00z run.

One other thing about the Euro - ... I suspect that snows pretty hard from mid way through D4 into early D5 ..as an anomalously west proficiency. The surface low in fact may even be escaping too quickly in that single day drift eastward on that 12z run - certainly within the realm of modeling noise for it to hold back west 50 naut miles considering the 18 hour anchor point of the 500 mb height core... Which, is why I think it snows possibly hard in there - and may beat out present QPF products if using this model verbatim. Heights closed over central and eastern SNE drop an additional 10 to 12 dm in that 18 hours ending D4 into mid D5 and that will probably have some elevated frontogenic banding/meso enhancing amid a general level 2 very slow pulsing rad rot within that column ...

The band in the NAM is collocated with best frotogenic banding in the 700 mb... and that model - I have noticed - tends to try and shut things down on the W-N side of that/those elevated instability axis in most systems.. That, and, for some reason the NAM is oblong -ing the 700 mb trough circumvallate - making it sort of ovoid and that is limiting any lift for that reason, over the NW arc to. Winds are almost precisely paralleling the isohypses = maxed and stacked... This run thus tries to claim west of ORH is deep in the nor'easter vortex circulation with sunshine weeeee typical NAM overly detailed over sophisticated hyper processing run wild.

Do you remember late this last autumn, we were discussion how the GFS was consummately ( and I mean 'consummately' - as in ..almost every run and day and week of the calendar) putting out solutions where the heights over midriff Canada are between 2 and 4 dm lower than the Euro cluster in near terms, and that typically increased to almost 12 dm by D8 - This was - I suspect and still do ... - related to why the GFS appears to have a velocity surplus in the various jets of the kiss latitudes between the lower Ferrel cell and farther S - i.e, jest streams. This surplus is quite subtle at other times quite gross. Anyway, in reading your bold there smacks of this phenomenon - I've been leaning away from the GFS all along on this, as the whole super-synoptic aspect of the hemisphere are not as suitable to it's native biases as ...say, 4 weeks ago when one could exceed the speed of light in a hot-air balloon - I mean I'm not tryin' to bun myself or nothin' or vie for a member # 30 here of the EPS ens mean, just sayn'

I mean just look at that crippling CCB comma head bomb between CC and NS on #37 ...man, someone out there had better tap the Nat Guard for early preparatory strategy meeting -

I would expect the consensus to begin the formulation/coalescence process now come to think about it...96 hours the front loading is over with and the CCB will be doing it's swan song. I still, however, believe there is a small amount of S/W kinematics over the eastern Pacific that may add ( take away...) some momentum into the total of this thing. That piece looks susceptible to data shadowing by virtue of being nested so close in space and time, wrt to the California outside slider, and stuff out along 140 W in the Pac.

That looks like a foot-ball office pool chart ... We should do that, put down on chart numbers and then when all's said done and totals are in and we see the storm's verified layout - we'll have a more definitive and coherent spectrum for humility and teasing targeting packages that is/are based upon who ranked worst to best -

Looking at the latest data ... looks pretty clearly like 03, 07, and 18 blend will suffice this iteration of 2020/2021's winter

It depends circumstantially... If there's a lowered snow growth dependency in given system'ss output, and there is an E flow.... the orographic upglide forcing will bulge the stream lines into the growth region in bulk...and thus snows the shit out of the column as the air is forced up slope/particularly near the tops ...but, that air, now removed of substantive water - that induces the shadowing on the far side of the ridge line ..etc.. If there's a higher growth dependency in a system's ongoing shenanigans...that same wind will roll up and over the ridge and descend, and the bulge in the stream line may be lower than the growth region. Which means the growth region is not receiving forced ascent ... But also, any air flow that comes back down slope compresses by density/gravity ...and that squeezes the V in PV=NRT ... and that raises the pressure in PV=NRT ... which means the temp rises to balance the physics... and when temp rises, that evaporates water... SO that does rob, just not as much. I would be willing to bet, that in storms where there was more obvious striated screw slots realized for western zones immediately west of those elevation bands ... reanalysis would show their snow growth regions were lower in the sounding than say that which gook place on Dec 17 over Rutland VT heh

Anyway ..that still looks suspiciously gathering the QPF along the shore/coast of Maine all the way down ... I think there may be some QPF robbing by the cold interface producing - possible. wouldn't know how to correct for it per se .. but that looks dubious

Oh, I miss the dates... right - see, told ya it was dumb

can I ask an embarrassingly stupid question... wtf am I looking at there. The chart on the left says 162 hours and has more snow than the one in the future, on the right.. oh, are these to be added ? Otherwise that looks like a bad EPS idea for me... I don't like storms that snow 9" then ... brag about -2 from that 9" to sell 7 yay

Yeah... I agree with y'all ... The orographic shadowing cannot really be avoided - that is physically imposing geological constraint. But, to be concise - which I thought I was but I dunno ... If there is enhancing lift of relatively warmer (saturable) marine air over a cold BL, that may 'rob' in over proficiency .. What that might do then is then exaggerate the orographic effect ... You end up with 0.3" over Tolland, CT say ... Obviously we all hope and pray for that to happen...then, have some weird snow phantasm form like anime, sneak in his bedroom window with it's ice dong and be unkind while all that is happening ... But, in the off-chance that doesn't occur... Sometimes when modeling processes in the environment .. when systemic events effect one another those 2ndary results can blow up in significance. It's the "hardest" thing to model- seriously

also...I was trying to be somewhat droll humored in the previous but ...yeah...I don't care about a teleconnector -derived superlative for a D8 juggernaut that sounds like, " ...man, that'd be one of those 1 to 2 footers..." If it really mattered to me, I don't honestly like it but I've got far bigger problems in life lol