Typhoon Tip

That was funny ... Yeah... depends on where the vagaries of wind aligned the clouds I guess... Pike to Rt poop down this way is in the wedge of partly sunny, in a slow moving overall synoptic evolution ... so we're probably are going to just get richer for the afternoon. It's 71 to 74 here in town at all home stations and frankly a walk down the street and back confirms that sensibly. Sky is pall blue with alto strata fractals dappled. Very light wind with hints of neighborhood lilacs and enough sun to add nape bake to the air - it's really hard to concentrate type stuff. It's warmer than yesterday, too -...not only surprised me that it got this way but it's adding LOL Guess interquartile statistical density ftw, huh Agreed Kevin... I don't think we are getting out of this week without some spring schmoots though. Frankly I'm okay with rain after three dry days.

Sneaking in an unpolished gem day going here... Must admit, a bit personally surprised. I figured today might be dry but zippo sun. We have actual sunshine in between day -glow skies and the temps over 70 ... I was talking to Kevin - I think it was - the other day that it would be interesting to test the NBM MOS ...which was putting out 65 to 70 F across KFIT/KBED/KASH/KBDL .. Even it seems to have busted slightly cool. All the while, the NAM actually looked like a better fit. I mean ...considering our sore-butt climate in early to mid spring, we are N of the warm boundary with an ESE drift on May 3 ... that's usually 53 F shit sky and tolerable chilly.

I feel ashamed every time I turn the starter and settle the wah-wah to hear the purr of the internal combustion engine's toxic fart factory's slow poisoning dose-contribution of the hour. It's just something we don't consider - like ... "flying" to a destination and then "riding" in a cab, to an auditorium that took a giga ton of carbon foot-print to power all aspects of overhead for ... just to rail as an environmental activist about a fossil fuel driven society. We are walking talking and "breathing" ( puns always intended just because I find pleasure in being annoying...) balls of toxic hypocrisy. Hypocrisy more than anything else is the lubrication of society. Like ...pounding away on a key board connected to the WWW ... to rave about the pitfalls of an impersonal social medias tearing at the fabric of culture. Most vegetarians ... they don't seem to be aware that they can be that way because they are couched in a societal machinery geared along by the majority - the enemy blood thirsty cheeseburger mongers. That's a particularly "delicious" hypocrisy right there - that whole holier than thou bag of shame and shade about eating meat. I guess if the majority cogs in the gear box decided to go vegan... maybe, but that wouldn't suffice the caloric needs of 7.5 billion mouths to feed - a purely agrarian species from orbit ... heh, probably in some super advancing counter-supplemental technology whence we are not there yet, that might be possible. It is an advancing environmental science problem but intuitively .. trying to turn the daily page of Earth's humanity on farming likely does not provide enough ... When it takes a 2 acres to raise a cow... that balloons to a requirement of arability land for growth that exceeds availability.. Animals concentrate nutrients into packets for redistribution - as coldly metallic as that sounds, it is a true. And then when aspects of climate and climate change get in the way... and crop vitality is not as dependable as the nutrients packed in Tenderloin, it just doesn't map out as very realized. Out here in reality, the point is, vegetarian cannot do this alone. Meat eaters can. It's called a gun or arrow, and camouflage. But most can't - hence the creation of Industrial abattoir scaling. That form and structure provides the provisional access convenience that delivers unto the moral high road's plate, the calories they will need to ablate our value as human beings for not being as morally priceless as they are.. Isn't that special - And on and so on.. You know ... despite all religions of the world and vicissitudes of history ... there is only one commandment that has prevailed for a million years: hypocrisy.

People want snow and that's their bag ... it's all good - I just want precipitation to fall in copious surpluses ... We need the water - that's just intellectually responsible pragmatism. I hope a Nor'easter drops the liq equiv or 4" pan dimensional in scope and scale, sending the usual problem streams and mid size rivers across Little League ball parks. just so the minoring flood event is in situ while the U.S. drought monitoring has moderately severe drought... ha. Anyway, we'll need the water JJA ... unless we get into one of these unusual summers of cool pool/trough convection like 2008 you know ... I don't necessarily trust the U.S. D.M. approach to regional climatology when/in their assessment of drought severity. This is not west Texas or California here. We definitely have a faster correction frequency than those environs of western North America's PNAP shadowing... It is almost impossible to sustain desiccating anything here... I'm sure there have been those eras in the past .. maybe even the like of which could rival, but .. we probably need - I dunno - something like 700 years before we return some scenario where the Quabin Res drops to church steeple exposure and the coffins bobbing ...

yeah ...I dunno.. maybe it did - but .. I don't think anything the NAM did last week is as significant as the NAM did, ever in its existence. Which frankly is brilliant once out of 10 pieces of shit type of legacy. In other words, it could be right, wrong, up down, left right ... or totally lucky last week - so whatever it did then, means nothing to determinism now. LOL. It sucks in any dimension of consideration. Having said that, it still presently just looks more fitting for least excuse imagine to be cold in SNE climo that has been a persistent situation since the year ( ~) 2000... Hence the nerdly interesting test - Brief digression: I was thinking about this.. If we look at the climate inferences from 1750 to 2000 ... that is a very different picture than what we have been experiencing since 2000. I expect it to snow this month because it has 57% of May since 2000. If not snowed...deep layer tropospheric air masses supporting snow - either way. 20 years is not a very large sample set - in fact it's rather small ( duh ) when looking at say .. 500 years of this or that metrics. But, the difference is insidiously concealing the Climate Change shit... If this were not a CC air apparent era, it would be more easy to assume the 20 year tendency to f Mays right in the butt is just god being a douche. But, since the CC instructs ( via modeling and whatever ...) that odd extremes should be happening ... that seems to argue there may be some substance to the 20 year data that is easily overlooked by the standard concept of sample size/weighting.. But back on point... The NAM looking cooler while a warm front is hem-hawing in the guidance ( EURO...GGEM ...all of them for that matter..), never has ended well at this time of year as of late and I don't see going with the warmest blended method as necessarily right - regardless of whether the blend density is centered on 72-75 F or whatever that is in the IQ range. Just because they are using the blend and intuitively those numerical methods should squeeze out accuracy ...doesn't mean any of the feed-in data sources understand the drag coefficient that fights warm fronts - unique to this region ... Nor the non-linear wave tendency to fold/tuck at synoptic scales over SE Canada as an implied ( think invisible) vector that is always pointed SW ... All these weird "gestalts" ... to keep it cooler.. yeah, they take a back seat to the NBM ? They may... we'll see. I'm not averring anything - just saying it'll be interesting to see if 66 at Fitchburg takes place tomorrow, under a clouded ceiling N of a warm front in early May with east wind blowing off a 42 F Labrador heat sink.

I'm interested in the national blend stuff vs say ...the NAM, for later tomorrow into Tuesday. The former of the two seems more optimistic - granted - but, the NAM fits with the general violation in the butt climate of new england for any time between April 1 and October 15 when it comes to warm air.

What in the hell are you talking about ... good god. Are you actually looking at that chart when you make this statement, " ... this run would support severe blizzard conditions .." That's light QPF that far west, steady in nature... It doesn't connote severe anything ... anywhere else for that matter, even if it were snow.

It's called a mattress ...

Yup... that's my intent, too. 'Bout 3 pm 10K run

Heh huh ... I'd replace "some" in that bold turn of phrase with "most" ... but yup. And add, without being solicited ... I know: Anyone born since circa 1950 are entitled assholes and aren't even aware of it. Even the ' good ones,' ranging to 'conditional sociopaths,' and everyone character in between, whichever delusion of self worth they covet that avoids them knowing this about themselves aside, they are definitely unclear on the concept of 'natural inconvenience' vs the assumption of utopia the modern convenience has given them. I'm a cynical snark at times ...particularly when I realize in moments of clarity that my soul mate hates and despises me and I'm forever alone without her and hate all of humanity because of it...LOL ... But somewhere in all that cumulonimbus cloud of continuous lightning it sparks, there are positive charges of truth: people of modernity are desperately in need of a reality check. They need massive doses of repeating humility and constant inconvenience ... until they get it through their f'n heads that they suck and will die. Once the yget that...you know what else happens? ... All this recreation outrage... woke this, cancel-culture that, the 'how dare my shoulder ache from a 2" needle' all of it ...it all goes away -

Saying "not exactly" isn't unnecessary - I know this latter stuff but from person to person it's impossible to separate the effect/affect ratio of response, first of all. Secondly, there is an immuno response to any invasive object - you stick a nail in your arm, all that shit you labeled is going to happen, too. Those responses are 'common reactionary denominators' ..that was my point. And we know that already/... of should... I guess my tongue-in-cheek rant is pointed at the bitching and whining of an aspect that is assume-able ...but whatever

2nd shot, right ? Trying to get a bead on this is impossible. Scatter plot of different reactions ranging from nothing across both doses, to admissions to an ER. I'm now working on 18 hours since first dose with no symptoms ...other than feeling of mild bruise in the shoulder. You know, when I ask a person if they are experiencing any symptoms from vaccination, and the immediate first sentence goes like, " ...I have a sore shoulder, and - " I'm getting tired of f'ing hearing that. No shit! You stick a foreign metallic object deep into your soft tissue, ..that's likely to leave a mark regardless of intent. Can we keep that out of it please? No - that is not a symptom of vaccination. That is a circumstance of having a veritable nail jab into one's flesh. Different. ..sorry, rant done. I guess less reactions from first dose ...but it's not zero. Just less. I don't know when/if at all this would kick in if I do. It'll be 24 hours late this afternoon and I figure it to be unlikely from that point forward.

I’m smack in the middle of gen-X Funny thing Will’s description pretty much sums it up for us too ... you could tell just offset First shot today. So far nada on adverse reaction

What were you expecting ?

Then right after.. D7+ a bomb Nor'easter crawling up/off the coast ... throwing back swept lashing CCB head of wind, heavy rain and cat-paws. Ew ... Granted, it may be over done ...but every one of the GEF members has a trough with a negative tilt at some point or the other, carving up the up coast between 150 and 200 hours. We'll see what happens, but out here in the purely objective deterministic approach to weather forecasting, we call that a loud signal for an event The EPS has a trough amplitude as does the GEPs so there is even at least some modest cross guidance weighting there. I think personally we need to get on the other side of that and we'll assess where we are at that time in terms of season.. But, we may have some decent days prior next week. The GFS still pins the warm front S and that's a general face smack tho .

Heh.. the 'guy at CVS,' eh - Was he a doctor, or a pharmacist ? ... perhaps the latter knows more than 'farmer john's internet rant,' sure ... but, how medically scienced is the opinion footed. I've read specific statements out among the greater ambient din of lies and truths that cloak reality, that directly state that one's reaction to the vaccine actually says less about its efficacy - so which is which... ? My god. you know, it's a bit ironic and funny how more access to information in this modern realm of dazzling technologies has actually only created a world of ever more bewildering obfuscation

Agree ... there is definitely an 'entitlement attitude' in these ... > 1995 born civilians/generationally ...call 'em cusp of gen-Z up through Millennials. Anyone in that generation has been depicted in satirized cinema to television, to literature in various forms and back, for a reason. It's a naivete over what they have to do, in order to get what they feel they deserve and have. Almost like afforded rank with relatively less amounts of exerted sweating or toiling to actual merit - another in their charming attributes, too, I'll tell you. ... It's not their fault, tho? They are a product of trophy culture - granted their births sort of predated that euphemism out in mainstream society, but the seeds of that was in the households back in the liberal 1990s. And frankly - also - the 'zygote' of the WOKE movement can be rooted back then, too. Also a movement modern convenience ubiquity allows/affords people the time and space to redirect their energy toward this 'recreational outrage' - make them toil in the fields or they don't eat, ..you'll see WOKE evaporate at the same speed as the sweat off their backs. The only thing WOKE is good for is the modern commandment of, 'Duh, don't be a c*nt!' - that's all. Just f'n say that! I mean they're just a product of the only reality they were brought up in - ... They just expect - nothing also to qualify. Where ever they, whatever they are doing, they expect - That motive and outlook on reality ...doesn't include shoveling shit for a living - a metaphor for anything less than a socially recognized position of advancing status and/or authority, personal-space ideologies they figuratively believe they are, already in their minds..

From what I looked at the 00z Euro tries to allow at least one day where the warm frontal arc gets to upstate NY ... dove tailing the eastern end to perhaps PSM at D4. That would imply a warm day in there at least to the Pike. Contrasting, the 00z GFS operational pins the warm front through mid PA and south of us... even closing off a wave to make sure it stays cold... amazing with the creative propensity of this model to engineer stopping warm air N of NYC at all times and circumstance always... Hate this f model! The difference really appears to be 72 hours. I did a isoheight comparison for both compression and position and the GFS is stronger with the exiting trough through the Maritimes by crucial amounts,... and that lays in a cooler air mass and starts the resistance rhea into motion. I suspect either run could be wrong for their own reasons. But the GFS version is likely too cold in the cold side of the westerlies ...which puts down a denser BL that inhibits the warm front. Euro's likely more right < 4.5 days out, in general.

Yeah.. that arithmetic certainly seems clad in that space alone - but it could be over-simplifying the beans on the counter in order to add things up that way, too. I am willing to bet that not all mom-and-pop small businesses and cottage industries are really operating at a shoe-string fragility as they are claiming. Some are, of course... But people have a way of lying about their zero-line, when zero for them is having to compromise at all ...It's probably not the case with your friend as you referenced earlier... just sayn' There's no one-size fits all truth about hardship. It just seems to me at a very basic math, if we create a systemically guaranteed pay-stub that puts any small business out of business, that is inherently sacrificing. Not sure how that can be avoided, unless there are subsidies built into this UBI legislature that offers restitution to those that were on the bubble and can prove it. That's really the solution right there - I think... Cough up the spread sheets to show shoe string's being cut by the UBI ubiguity and if they are, and your business is codified in registry ( i.e., propertly tax-coded... blah blah ) .. anyway - you get it. But all sacrifice is, is compromising assets now, because there is a bigger purpose to be gained. Unless it is mandatory - that's the problem right there, the "Universal" at the front of the B and I. But like I said, their should be some sort of compensatory that doesn't dumpster one's pride and joy and reason for living by the blithe momentum of societal machine. Having said all that... greed is ultimately the driver. The components that hold the scaffold of society et al toether, over time, inflate. This is normal free-market morality at work... via speculations/avarice... Given time, are over-valued rivets, so no one or org or agency can grow and build much anymore, without upping costs to keep up. 0 $ people have to make that money to pay rent and mortgage ... provisional ...etc.

I'm getting my first today ... I'm hearing this hydration precautionary from a few different sources. Is there some actual ( at least ) anecdotal accounts where someone got popped in the arm and 10 hours later said, "f*, I wish I had a glass of water" ? I mean is there something very obvious about this that transcends the normalcy that the average person is a nimrod about hydration as a baser health requirement and most operate at a deficit ?? I'm not trying to be snarky incredulous as that succeeds at intimating ... LOL, but I drink a lot of water anyway. So I'm not sure what/where/why the source for that hydrating thing is coming from. I'm thinking it just applies to the common denominator of dehydrated people ...

So are we to gather you implicitly disagree with Universal Basic Income ? The bold statement above, I have noticed this in the past - these sort of 'begging to get people to work at 15/hr' stories are not as uncommon as we may think. Are they real tho? Some of it has to be. I see it my self. I keep seeing 'help wanted!' signs at the entrances of cottage industry level...sort of mom-and-pop outfits ... bodega this and thats. And I wonder if things are as bad as we are seeing in the gallery media portrays - why aren't those ends connecting? I'm not saying UBI isn't necessary or wanted ...etc. However, I do suspect there are other forces not being very well exposed in the on -going art display. interesting -

It is but it’s also in and out in under 24 hours ... fastest synoptic cold pop ever.

This is like we finally got the ice storm Synoptics but just no cold air.

LOL - right You know ... I was thinking about this. It doesn't "seem" like a drought has ever been under foot in New England over the last 18 months. And to be faIr, that U.S. DM chart is rather benign looking to me. Moderate this or that - c'mon. We all know and joke, that's but a training MCS or coastal rainer from being largely a nothing issue. That said, how much relativity is involved with the U.S. DM's determination? I'd love to take a ranked staff member out for a candid cup of coffee and hear about it. I mean, if it's a 10 year deficit, we could get 18 inches of rain in a hurricane and denude all of SNE off the planetary surface with hydro scouring destruction ...and it'd still be a 10 year deficit crippling drought. Right - How does that work. How do they connect the ends of this shit when ( more realistically an exmample: ) you have so-dubbed moderate drought on going, and you get a 4" overnight convective bomb and baseball fields and swing sets under nearby stream flooding and warnings. SO you have flood warnings and drought warning concurrently - got it. LOL

I think that was a the year of that super hot July 4th weekend too. I attended a July 4th party ... people matriculating in started mid afternoon ... and by 3 or so, were taking turns laying down on floors to cool off, in between going back out to the patio to regale in shifts... 103 on the home station. And I think Logan was high 99 chilly degrees under an obscuring cirrus plume. 2017 had that Tsar Bomba ridge from Hades ...but interestingly - little known fact because no one really knows to recall...- even though the geopotential medium verified the ridge reasonably well, we didn't really stuff it with heat as big as it could have been supporting. As it were ...it was hot, real hot to be fair. But just not as hot as a 606 dm closed height contour and surrounding instructive hemispheric dominance could have been. I think I capped out on that at 96/74 here in Ayer which is plenty torrid and dangerous enough for ditch digger work. The reason for that is that the pattern really lacked a SW source getting cough up into it. That's why comparatively lower geopotential medium heat domes have sported 101s at Logan on the gentle WNW dragon fart breezes. It's because there was a Sonoran release of plateau heat that tumbled out into the plains and associated, a 850 mb super kinetically charged air mass,...and if there is a little gradient at all it mixes into the BL lapse rates and you end up with sfc temp plugged into an 800 mb adiabat ...and if you take a 18 C 800 mb Poissonian proper out of that you're filling ERs ... We missed that factor in the 2017 July 4 historic ridge - a distinction not really made aware because it was damn hot enough. Probably you're gonna get that hot one way or the other when heights are so high the Space Shuttle has to goose orbit or it's belly my tickle the top...lol... Just acme cartooning the sentiment but you get the point. Anyway, I've noted that we here in the eastern U.S. have been lucky with the frequency of "killer heat" waves, a frequency that has been on the rise ... France into the lower Urals... sometimes western Russian, even lower Siberia ... Australia... to name a few, have out paced us by a factor of 3 - in fact, I think of only one heat wave that really rivals what they've experience abroad, and it was that 2012 one that was broken by that historic Drechio in the mid Atlantic. That heat wave missed us, here... Yet we've been above normal like everywhere else in our own variant of CC...global warming's footprint. It's just been maintenance above normal. I begin to wonder if New England ever can sustain a Franceonian heat wave. 2017 - to me - suggests it can..? if a SW heat ejection was tangled up in that ordeal, look out! Heat would finally resonate as just as important as cold and blizzard, hurricanes tornadoes and floods. I'm tempted to lie and suggest per capital, heat has killed more than all these others combined, yet it seems oddly "back burner" as a popular aspect.