Typhoon Tip

Funny y'all noticing that about pack loss rates ... I was thinking on my b-ride that today feels like the real first mild day of the year - ...those other ones were like shot across the bow and had that kind of "fake warmth" feel to them.. .even into the low 70s it didn't feel quite the same because the evap rate was so high you still sort of got annoyed by the breeze ? somethin like that -

Everything discussed about that Euro run beyond D ~ 4.5 is not considering it's patently obvious amplification bias it regularly/routinely applies as a systemic wash to everything and all features it already has in process/ physically handling in those extended time ranges ... I bet anyone 10 bucks that four cycle from now that won't be there - if not the next ... talking about the D7/8 thing - The only real reason to tweet that and then make fun of it, is because that personal really really hopes it happens. Lol ...otherwise, that realization of its bias makes it not really commendable enough to comment on

I'll tell you though... it feels nice to not have the heat on at all in 18 straight hours... I think at this point no heat through Saturday night - by the way, Saturday is starting to look like a sneak gem -

There it is... phew - just when I thought we'd dodge the bullet

We labored 'till 18z ... but it was 49 and light lab-fridge urine here at 13Z with slate ... handling memories of 76 F and sun forecast aft by only 12 hours. Jeez. But, here we are ..open sky hot sun and 71 big ones. DP is 61, too - heh... forgot to consider that. It's a whole 'nother world compared to those 70/20 days... Putting up 71/61 is a strange feel with no foliage and the ground still beige. And with Sept 15 equivalent late summer sun ...we probably won't max until 4:30 either.

Hopefully readers realize that snark humor - But, topography does play an important role in timing warm fronts. They are particularly needful of overcoming low level drag ...and having the land mass fall away/lower elevations peering roughly east of an HFD-EEN line the way it does, tends adds more drag by virtue of more mass ... thus inhibits "light wind field" type warm front erosion scenarios ... front stops at the Worcester Hills. See it all the time. It's something also exaggerated in the spring - when of course by nature when no one 'sane' wants it to persist chilly... We typically are going from very dry DP like yesterday, and then saturation of that air mass, in between, makes the air thermodynamically dense, and offers that much more drag... It's just harder. If the TD out ahead of the warm front was warmer than .. 20 F, we probably would have the boundary up there at PWM already

oh yeah...it's an eastern zones issue ... warm fronts creep to the rim of the worcester elevation line and then stops there... You need a p-wave of a f'n comet impact to scour this shit

it's a teach-able moment about always adding 6 hours to warm fronts in this f'n bottom less cold well

stubborn low cloud... the orb of the sun is plainly getting through... enough that it's 66 and way above normal but somehow still an injustice - hahahaha. I guess not advertising 77 with mid summer appeal would help that set up, huh - But in any case, it is clear like 3 miles west of here out to NYS ... open sky, and the clouds are move WSW to ENE so this is entirely lower level terrain fall away caused at this point... They'll probably make 74 to 76 west of the ORH hills, and then that air mass floods east as late high with a later mix out I'm guessin... The old 6 pm Logan t-spike ?

he was mentioning the yellow stuff

you guys talking about the pine pollen ? i thought that was more late May...

Thing I'm always wondering about those instability profiles like that - Aren't those SFC based lifted parcels based upon modeled temperature profiles ?? Those could be wrong if the model's f'ed up - Like the NAM will have MOS of 67 when 77 .... and throw up 850 elevated convention because it's SBCAPE is a piece of shit... Yet it seems these references to instabilities in tweets and whatever ...it's not clear they are leaving plenty of wiggle room for model temperature bullshit

Brightening even here under the butt-bang band of clouds of the I-495's dying deform ... temp from 52 to 60 in an hour... It's really warm aloft - folks that get sun going'll probably see some soaring... Brian I think mentioned 18z for eastern zones...

yeah... 'been bitchin' about it all morning myself.. heh kind of bust - sort of...

Signal to destroy April is getting harder to ignore - ... It was always a wonder to me whether or not the La Nina longer terms climate signal for 'warm tendencies in spring' in the OV/MA/NE regions would kick in. I have been using that in my seasonal assessment efforts ( ...which is really just voiceless whisper in the din of social media blather such that this outlet offers...). I had surmised ...if not 'engineered' a way in which it could. The problem is the HC... The expansion shit is real - again...this is not me and my hypothesis. This empirically measured and discussed out there in the greater ambit - I've provided primer material ... but since no one in here ever seems to discuss it, I can only assume that means no one takes it seriously? I am saying that because hopefully it will help people to believe it - it's not me. https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/ Key Finding 1 The tropics have expanded poleward by about 70 to 200 miles in each hemisphere over the period 1979–2009, with an accompanying shift of the subtropical dry zones, midlatitude jets, and storm tracks (medium to high confidence). Human activities have played a role in this change (medium confidence), although confidence is presently low regarding the magnitude of the human contribution relative to natural variability. Key Finding 2 Recurring patterns of variability in large-scale atmospheric circulation (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and Northern Annular Mode) and the atmosphere–ocean system (such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation) cause year-to-year variations in U.S. temperatures and precipitation (high confidence). Changes in the occurrence of these patterns or their properties have contributed to recent U.S. temperature and precipitation trends (medium confidence), although confidence is low regarding the size of the role of human activities in these changes. So, even a small expansion in the tropics has to physically integrate into more overall gradient...and, that expansion has been happening since (1979 thru 2009) + 11 years ... a time in which the "hockey stick," CC acceleration is going on, . ... that doesn't end well. The expansion is probably gone on further, and ... gee what the f's been happening in the last 10 years. Velocity saturation Index correlation failures, ocean and air Seasonal and intra-seasonal excessive Standard Deviation anomalies like 70s and 80s in February at 40 N around the hemisphere ... like, 3 or 4 times in 10 years... Commercial airliners backing us into a wonderful experimental sampling with their consummate record breaking short flight times over oceanic basins, with some nearing sonic speeds... ...litany of examples that ... seems like threshold is either being crossed, or... it's pulled pretty taut. So ... that 'index correlation failure' bold there... that's been iffy for this spring and assessing whether the La Nina stat would dominate. But that April with the blockbuster -NAO out of now where and suddenly explosion of +PNA into the first week of the month - that's not winter coming back, first of all... What that is, is relaxation slosh back at hemispheric scales. It's the HC velocities abandoning the flow, and suddenly, for a window that may last a couple of weeks ( ~) you get these residual blocking nodes to pop off. It's done this ever spring in the past 5 years and it seems that the models/ ens means are trying to send the continent through the seasonal gating again.

Another thing I noticed and pisses me off because this happens a lot and I never know when to trust the observation at hand... yesterday, ...while we finagled that decent day east of the CT River Valley, there was a this nearly stalled N-S oriented wall of light shits from the Capital District of eastern NYS to PHL... inching E at that blazing speed of excruciating. I saw that ...and thought, 'that looks like it'll be here tomorrow - is that gonna do that here?' ... Seems now, that's precisely what happened ...and, it is still blazing along at the speed of excruciating.

...and I wonder how 'confounding' it really is ... or 'was,' too. It's almost like collectively et al we just sort of assumed its vague presence in the guidance ...to mean 'noise' and less influencing perhaps. Yet it's been there lurking in the guidance all along. I think if it busts the day, like it probably will, it won't really be as much of a blind sided thing as it will an error in not taking it seriously: That said, it's also not really fair - what is in life... - because the guidance over the last 48 hours really showed that as being less influential ... here we are with gumming up matters clear to MHT NH such that it is... It's a whirl that is decoupled from the mid levels, where the models do better in open air - in other words, it's 'cyclonic volume' is essentially all contained where the models don't do so well. The NAM sort of hinted at 00z ...with Logan in an slight inversion T1 to T2, and 92% RH1 values through 16z... I saw that and went uh oh -

Oh yeah. Some of the synoptic basics are in the region - ... not talking Enid OK soundings or anything..but, regional LI's are -3 ..and with low level moisture left elevated by this bs out there now being cooked by sun inside a warm sector... oh, look - here comes a late day front.

not helping that there's a llv cyclonic 'echo' S of ISP... almost looks on satellite like it's producing a low ( 700 mb ) level deform band of light shits over eastern sections. It's whirling away at the speed of 'utterly disconnected from the steering field' so who knows how long that thing claims the day too - yuck. it sucks out there now... I just hope we've at least managed some appreciative rain... But if today busts... it looks like Saturday is trending milder with less backside cold ... 850s stay 0 -ish, with WNW d-slope and 540 thickness > 540 so... it may still make 64... Cold fails in sneaky ways at this time of year when it does, and spring sometimes has a way of proving by force that July is still coming - lol

mm.. having my doubts - but I usually do when day's that are supposed to bust out, but the dawn reveals the way that this one has... - sometimes I end up surprised, sometimes I don't. But high res vis imagery shows that paint-spill on the pavement look while synoptic cloud traffic whizzes by over top - that's a signature for low cloud smear in a saturated soup inversion that is effectively trapped.

I wouldn't be shocked if we see a GEFs based PNA correct up in tonight's computation. If there's any continuity off the 12z run, that PNA is gonna rise - the EPS and GEFs mean have preludes to some sort of bigger warm signal formulating in upon their D9 -> .. So it's a distant signal ...but seeing both those guidance source in tight agreement on a low frequency wave ejection that is anchored subtropically and arcs to the Dakota latitudes on D10 getting ready to roll easward, ...I've seen that before a summer Sanoran heat expulsion ... here we are April I also want to point out that some notable April heat has happened in the past following cool ENSO winter -

man... fascinate the hate - that's all we can do with 'em

Yeah ..It may have been PWM that had the 73 high ... I know that CAR had the NE wind gusts though. I remember seeing that in a special ASOS interval. It could be that the BD was just formulating ahead of that acceleration - speculation...

Yeah I get ya ... Not trending right for a 'big kahoona' event - Frankly, I know you didn't asked but part of my gear shifting and warm season enthusiasm is ...I admit, engagement fatigue - I mean I just get sick of it.. the whole everything. I don't care what bomb is on what f'n chart after March 1 any year...OR it had better be greater in prominence and awe-capacity to offset the exhaustion. I'm just ready to do something else - anything...by March, so long as it is not following cyclone disappointment lol The reason I bring that up is because of that right there, in the Euro.. .Like, doesn't that routine get old... wringing hands in want, only to know that July is nearing at the gravity-time constant of the cosmos ...ain't helping. I guess I'm weird... By the way - for Scott - nice Sanoran/SW heat release setting up on the D10 Euro! who's with me -

I'd still watch that ... The Euro may yet be overdone, but that seasonal trend stuff is not true 'always,' either... If that 500 mb looks that way tomorrow, that's a pretty dicey scenario N of PWM north and E... Despite my own doubts, I am also open minded... I mean it's not impossible to bring a short duration deal to the doorsteps up there and that's too close to discount entirely just yet..