Typhoon Tip

It always occurs to me ... Dec 21st ithe shortest day of the year.. that's all that is. It happens to be the solstice. Maybe the meaning of winter is misnomer'ed over the course of history. But as a climate distinction, it lapses that date enough in either direction depending on the given year's vagaries of the patterns ... There's nothing really magical other than to say, 'shortest day of the year' - doesn't mean much else. Calendars? Human invention.

I've been told by several who've been vaccinated that they were lax at best re any sort of background screening and mostly - they don't really check - It's not like you're being glowered at, "where's you papers..." outside of Stalingrad circa 1939 ... They ambled in and claimed they have a-b c job or x-y or z co morb and it was sit here and get poked - I mean, there's lists sure... criteria for who gets what based upon whatever - but you know, it's a logistical infeasibility to expect every tom dick and suzie marry to provide some kind of proof of ailment passport

Jeez ..lol, I mean that's only one legit paragraph otherwise .. a sprinkling of 5 or so sentences - Yeah I know... hey, that took me 5 minutes to type - and no ..in case anyone is wondering, I am not on my phone at a food pavilion in a Mall or waiting on someone curbside for a ride. I work from home and sometimes days are slow - like today... I thought that was funny - ... 'pissed off hornet looking to sting anything in blurry sights' ... made me laugh typing that -

We've been talking about too, for several days... Just sayn'

... seasons change when they do... Kind of an oxymoron to say "..We done" and then suggest a couple more days - which is it ? lol ... I know what you meant though. For me, spring begins on February 8th every year. Winter begins on November 8th ... Why, because I derive pleasure from annoying people... but also, Nov 8 thru Feb 8 is the solar mimimum of the year. That's when the solar insolation power of the sun dish-pans ...even on sunny days ( for example ...) snow packs are resistance at 40 N latitude... Minimum's duration of course is shorter south, and longer N of our latitude and so on and so on.. The max around here is May 8th through August 8th...and that is summer in my crazy world. Everything in between those is spring/autumn, respectively... That's if going by like Math and actual celestial mechanics of astro physics - ... But, we here on Earth as mere mortals have this pesky bias of being drilled into what effects/affects at a sensible level - ...to our senses, climate lag dictates the seasonal changes ...as ultimately directed by what can be felt and is observable, therein. Warm weather returns ... buds swell...confused hornets come out of winter slumber addled and pissed off because they haven't had their morning coffee and set to 'dry stinging' anything in their blurry sights - hate that. But all that usually doesn't really get going until that first April true 4 days of 70 with nighttimes staying well above freezing.. (Usually just before the orchard killer blue urinal cake snow event .... but that's another annoyance altogether )

I'm telling ya ... other hobbies haha... Nah, I don't think people were complaining about busted this or that last October when it snowed a legit snow event prior to Halloween by a couple of days. Obviously -...allowing for folks to vent their hyperbole. We get it ... but just sayn' we can't always get what we want in this recenty "invented culture" made possible by internet technology plus forecast modeling/graphical cinema. You know...we've talk about this 'conditionalizing' aspect in the past, but it seems apropos in this moment here. Like, what an amazing stroke of fated timing - that we would see the advent of the internet and the ability, in itself, to formulate that culture as described there, at precisely the same 25 years the climate has gone completely bonkers and have been throwing out +4 SD cold(hot), dry(wet), calm(windy), rain(snow) events like Pez dispensers. I mean, what if we had this ways and means to formulate this internet society of weather cinema enthusiasts ...in a dearth of active climate? I just wonder - would people grouse the same way? I don't think so...because having not been exposed to regular snow threats in October ( ) ... they wouldn't be so quick to negate that experience when constructing any such personal impression ...like not getting fun out of this - in other words, spoiled. Lot of elegant rhetoric ...condensed to one word - But it's not just weather...The whole internet and access to information and "event drama" ...is a saturating high. And looking out the window at actual reality ...? It's unbearable uninspired compared to the drug e-psychotropic realm inside of the manufactured reality of modern tech... But I'm digressing... This in here, what we do ? it's just our version of suffering the same saturation/'over-stimulus' ...and folks not only have trouble putting it down, they start to believe the stimulus is the real 'reality' and stampede the Capitol - in that metaphor, we outrage and mere normalcy

It's funny ... I like the use of the word 'synergistic' ... things are sometimes 'favored' to happen - It's like you have a separate 'emergence vector' - it doesn't exist until aspects are put into motion. ...Like we've all been through times where it just seems to always snow; contrasting, it never can. And these will take place despite ongoing indicators, too. Snows with bad teleconnectors ...it just finds a way. Or, like the antithesis... We have been in a +AO mode now for two weeks, with an NAO that is neutral positive, in a flat PNA... in a La Nina spring, and we can't warm up no matter what? Maybe next week will change some of that... "maybe it won't" Anyway, we have been suffering a kind of 'de-evolutionary' tendency in system integrity for the entire cold season... Routinely, features and phenomenon of the D8s and on ... invariably come into mid range as a less impressive system... sometimes then failing to even get to short range before it seems the passage of time itself caused it to minor out - like the models just had a cool idea but got bored and abandoned it... haha. Obviously that's joking but ... this system seems to have done that to us again. Even though it sort of did it later. Check this...I might be wrong, but wanna say back when this system was D7 it wasn't really much of anything then... This did that song and dance of minoring out in shallower time it seems - the NAM lied with its NW bias as usual, and then the Euro thought it would be funny to deliberately f with heads by putting up a couple of agreeing cycles - it was a perfect storm of misdirection LOL. Either way...here we are again, and it seems to parlay negatively - there's some sort of negative synergy going on to 'cancel' these things. Almost like a count-down decay rate going on with all systems: d(cyclone)/dt exceeds actual time, system becomes null before it gets to reality. If that rate is slower than time... use the decay rate to determine what it will be when the time arrives - less.

Yeah ...there's that too, Scott - add that to the till of bad model handling. All though, convective "robbing" as the euphemism goes, isn't really quite yet in the model skill - I wouldn't think? I mean, talk to us when they know precisely what cumulus cloud will become a cumulonimbus ... maybe at that level of godly prescience ...the models will "see" WV choking and desiccation ... Perhaps the models had a chance to save some face with a 2.4" er ...say, but then their being blind to the 'where' convection and therefore not having any remote clue on how that would in turn modulate matters ... ooph It seems this might be the straw the broke the modeling back -

Operational Euro seems to have subtly bumped back optimistically for mid, next week... but it may not be enough for coastal zones. Saturday and Sunday still look like gem days - ...late recovery Saturday with longish day, high sun and general synoptic evolution. I mean... relative to what probably those days 'should' be like on March 20 and 21 of any given year - heh. Now that we are within a couple of days of Saturday, the Euro gets cute with details. It is displaying the 21 thru 00z 850 mb temp layout with 'hole-punching' ... +1C islets amid a sea of 0 C... that is happening because of boundary layer cycling ... a nice demo of unabated post Equinoxial sun's intensity forcing the air mass... I have seen it be 58 F over a solid snow pack in late February, with light wind, open sky sun and 0 C at 850 mb. Saturday is a candidate for exceeding MOS .. but it may be a late high. The key there is unabated solar - that high pressure centered White Plains -ish NY and destined to E of CC over those next 48 hours is offering means to mute the ocean cold from pouring inland for one, and it becomes a pure 'nape' and perhaps outright mild. Sunday probably exceeds 70 F in the deeper interior I bet .. Thanks to high pressure, slacked gradient with still open sky and 850s' securely > 0 C... However, folks withing 20 miles of the south and east coast, heh - that high is retreating in a bit of shitty direction frankly. I mean ... it won't be cat pawing at 38 F exactly... but one should expect a gradation of mild appeal ... pretty steeply sloped into pissed of chill in a Euro total evolution. Figure 47 at Logan, and 71 on the lee side of the hills. The ocean/harbor SSTs being seasonally at a nadir any air motion from that source ...see ya. It will abruptly destroy any gossamer March "warm up" ... If future guidance backs off that over produced vortex off the U.S. SE coast ( which looks over baked to me given to the mid levels as an aside ..) then the retreating high may do so ... 100 clicks S; that would stem onshore wind and in fact, may get it more SW ..such that Metrowest isn't as annoyed. I just you can't depart high pressure straight E - as a spring nape/warm enthusiast and avid nerd .. I can honestly say, I hate that. The wind will go perpendicular to the gradient beneath the elevation of the Prudential Tower all the way out to the Worcester Hills when that happens. I've seen it be 45 F at Logan under 588 heights in late May because the high position was due E Boston. Tuesday+ ... forget it... That is like almost bona fide windy out of the SE penetrating the whole region. Partly to mostly sunny and UNpleasantly robbed from the previous signal that looked like we were getting a nice 4 days balm .. Having said that, is is not as bad as it looked for this aspect, as was the case in 12z yesterday so ... perhaps this can trend less annoying. In March in SNE? Nah...

Not trying to rub it in and/or toot horns ( I swear ..) but this was cautioned through both serious content ( and trolling snark - ha...) Seriously tho, it was ....ever since the get go. I won't lie tho - it is/was difficult at times to be aggressively against the models. For one, duh... But, if it were ever so obvious, I probably just wouldn't post - it's hard enough to assess whether people are even reading, if -necessarily- one's contribution happens to be contrarian, conserved if (unfortunately ...) circumstantially uninspired ... to put it nicely. Often that effort appears ignored ... One can get into distinctions .... like whether this is shutting off faster, vs not really shunting south ... but those two are causally interconnected frankly. The problem with this is the term "shunting" - it's really maybe not the best adjective to describe what is taking place. What is really happening is negative or destructive wave interference between the S/stream and the N/stream... This was/had been evidence in the guidance for days actually. I - personally - am not sure why the runs were fighting so hard to overcome those larger synoptic scaffolding problems in trying to build an event that was weakly going to be riveted together ..because of that stream interference scheme; it was there all along, and these latter couple of model cycles - to me - are kind of like 'no shit' to the models. I think it's a bad model performance as the real focus here - by all.. Euro...NAM ... GFS frankly gets a subtle nod because it was flatter - maybe - but I also think that's not because it's physics are superior; it is by ongoing bias convention "too fast" in a fast flow...which sometimes defaults it to looking right - it's very confusing with that thing. As a result, you take the 12z position and cyclone systemic structure, of all guidance 00z run, and then look at it at 30 hours ...then by 48...60 ...across that expanse of time starts out as a classic Norwegian Model low at the front... and at the end, it is a cold front. As was once stated in "Plains, Trains, and Automobiles," ... "You're going the wrong direction!" The whole system response to the negative interference was decay the system to an open baroclinic field, from a closed one... Which is kind of interesting because that is the exact antithesis of the typical behavior for systems approaching and leaving our longitude... Anyway, one can call that 'shunting' but what it really is more precisely is 'deconstructing' cyclonic kinematics ... and so the storm decays into an open wave and then ultimately a residual front. I see these recent model runs that are moving the precip off/ narrowing, faster, as just getting in closer to the limitations in space and time and the storm is seen as weaker, period. But keep in mind... we're talking within the virtual universe created by these guidance tools - these are all distinctions that are relative to that framework. There is still a reality that needs to cooperate -I mean, aspects rear from the unknown and cause 'out of the blue' things to happen from time to time... There's no way to hold the models or interpretation in the best of deterministic/objective approaches very accountable in those weird scenarios.

Yeah I mentioned earlier that the Nam and the euro were moving together in that regard. That makes it seem more systemic in nature i.e initialization controls. Although I wasn’t aware it was 18 versus 12z or whatever but I guess that makes sense if it is

I'm not sure I see where the N/stream helps ... it appears to be in negative interference overall... It's not 'phasing' - it's compressing the flow ( negative ) and that is speeding up factor and the wind max/jet structures of the S/stream end up absorbed into it and lose identity. That is way the deeper layer ( 500mb ) evolution shows it sloping back SW positive in rotation like this, The cyclone in OH becomes a cold front SE of Nova Scotia - Contrasting if the N/stream was late arriving assist - that would be stem wound low and not just a cold front escaping across the N Atl.

yeah this is another example in why suspending the model initialization arm of operations at NCEP was a brilliant move ... heh, kind of like the dissolution of the pandemic arm of the CDC 15 months prior to needing the pandemic arm of the CDC - ...I mean, that scale and degree of boobery is what drive frustration to the brink of conspiracy belief system - my f'n god

So ...frankly I am a bit surprised the Euro came in that robust - It is interesting that the Euro and NAM have been sort of yawing NW then back SE ..in tandem across these last last 5 model cycles. That seems to suggest the variance is not so much being attributable to specific model bias' ( although they got them..), but perhaps more so with initialization/data ingest as more likely the culprit. The NAM spent some part of the overnight with nothing - let us not forget that. And the Euro also struggled to hold onto its earlier 12z, 4-6" advisory -type result, too. So, yeah...movement en masse suggest the cause is broadly systemic - That said, this really occurs to me upon deeper reflection .. it just simply comes down to rate of decay of the southern stream as it arrives. Everything I mentioned earlier in the day when I was struggling to troll and failing - I guess they're on to me ...hm - is still true. The total system is attenuating in that regard. But, correctly timing the rate of decay - that's bigger ball of wax; it seems that could be explained by runs getting 'that much' better ( or at least different..) data initialization. The impetus being...strong/> momentum gets the goods further N. The suppression is coming... but that may wait that much longer while a bigger stone rolls by in the stream underneath - metaphor... I don't believe over land is an assimilation issue ... that seems to be more a sensitivity that arises from whether small pixels of wind max are missing or sampled -

Yeah...it's really even arithmetically simple too - I mean, water holds ~ 4 kilo-joules per KG degree K, and concrete and other pavement aggregates are ~ 1 ... ...thus, just on napkins water is 4 X's more so than most street materials. At a more complex conceptual level...yeah, we can get into differential cooling rates within the strata of the subtsrate, to actual contact surface of the road.. But that also means that at a given temperature of pavement, snow falling on the pavement will melt and the cold water will absorb more heat than the road can give at that same temperature... so the road surface falls at 4 times the rate of the cold water trying to raise its temperature. ... so if keeps snowing... the road will snow cover pretty fast - It's always been a sort of a canard that the ground is too warm to support snow. It doesn't make a lot of science sense when considering material physics. That may be so at first, but it slips really fast with that the specific heat content of water being so much higher that aggregate materials of the streets. The water wins by a factor of 4 ... such that, the temp of the concrete falls faster than the water gains heat, and that sucks the thermal momentum from the street ...etc..etc.. I've seen partly sunny 58 F early afternoons in April with snow cover on the street by 8pm that same evening -

when do low weight, low cholesteral, low heart rate athletes that never get winded when they run 10ks, that eat organic diets and carry on in life with no comorbidity factorization of any kind get a dose ?

But even the Euro fumbling around with that turd caught in amber off the Carolinas... It's really one standard isohypses closure there causing all this onshore gale for the Cape of VA and Hatteras too...while bulging the low level pressure pattern enough to argue Tues and Wed might get muted for warmth significantly up here. It is after all squarely in the 'behind the washroom at Shawshank' time of year so - It is a spring climo aspect to see those turds. But usually, the pattern commits to 3 contoured closures... This sorta kinda seems like they are being over sensitive. But jesus, a mere 'weakness' to cause a disproportionately larger sensible weather impact - The Euro was also mischievous ...it has +12 850 mb temperature layout D9 and 10, but indiosyncratic pressure leaves everyone cold with BDs this or can't get the wind offshore for whatever reason it can find ... ah hell - what were we smokin' anyway ...

GGEM finagles a way to never get it above 50 in SNE the whole way ...

Bingo ...

LOL, ..that's an easy question - Anyone wanna win a nobel prize for Science in deterministic weather forecasting ? No, but it's like a negative integral, one happening in fluid time... there is a rate of cyclogenic factoring/decay ... and at some point along that curve the structures becoming gradually more ANA ... everything paralleling boundaries. There's no real way to tell exactly 'when' it becomes critically lost to what location.

So, I'll try to be less snarky and sarcastic here: I do see synoptic limitations to this as being a bigger player... I think we can all agree that much. But, to get this to a pedestrian even in a narrow corridor - can that still be achieved? Not sure... the deep layer is attenuating. But, there is a narrow window of 700 mb to 500 mb wind acceleration up over the polarward side of the baroclinic wall ... that's really what that WAA/ weak wave signature is running along S of LI on the NAM ... but, that is in a race ...because that is losing that wind accelaration aloft, as well, just before the N/stream's arrival and subsequent compression/suppression. These latter two factors are arguing for shutting it off - but there could be moderate fall rates of big cold rain drops risking flip for 4 or so hours. It seems the NAM is really hitting that flip. Will is right - tough forecast. Because for 4-6 hours prior to everything setting sights on next autumn as the next threat ... ( lol ), that window may get cold rain to flip.. I think the NAM is hitting that too hard...and I think the global numerical models have a tendency to overly smooth those kind of crack in the frame work opportunities.

I'm not sure I buy that ... it's almost smaller than the grid meshing of the 32 km ... but, they do run the model at 3km .. You know what this reminds me of a little... Mike Ekster and I were leaning over a stairwell guard rail ..I think it was when Eastern did a gathering down in Providence. We were ruminating the NAM as being "too finely meshed" for it's own good. It's like it gets down into those discrete levels and it can't perfectly resolve ... so it starts to fractal its own noise, and then ... it caries that noise onward into those later frames ( beyond 36...48 hours..etc..). Granted, that was 15 years ago - but, it's like the NAM tries to get cute with features like that.

Okay, but that wasn't addressed to you specifically - it's to the tenor in general ...

This, I admit... is part of the doubt-canvas for me in all this, not just applicable as a general rule down around OKX's AD but should be applied everywhere. It looks like a cyclone that is attenuating and breaking down toward that kind of 'ANA' look - and that's a red flag for me. Then, adding to that ... the 00z Euro was paltry and sub-pedestrian... in fact, a business meeting's distraction away from ever knowing there may have been snow falling look about it. Heh. Then adding, having to rely upon a model that tends to be the the last model to give up a NW position ... Then, adding a bunch of other negatives ...like the whole structure is attenuating upon arrive in the deep layer mechanics; the N/stream is faux phasing and is really bringing suppression factor... It could still just be a unique situation where it succeeds with no way of doing so ...haha

Oh..well "NOTHING" as a distinction isn't really what I had in mind, either. Pistol to head? I think it cold rains more in CT/RI with sub-cat paw blats on the windshields, then some pingers start bouncing here and there...and then some mangle noodles then it ends... maybe a silver inch that turns diamond hard before disappearing Saturday...something snarky like that though.. . I don't like exuberance using tactical avoidance ...refocusing on aspect that make the positive returns thus seem more plausible? That is a delusional process, frankly. And although it is ultimately harmless in a random public internet social-media platform, such as this site and its ability to exert such a HUGE influence over a wide range of institutional policies ( LOL...), it's still toe-nail-curling to see. I know...I know. Lighten up - ...it may very well be the last chance for 7 months ( until the dependable October snow event next autumn ...) to tie off the bicep and slap the forearm veins.