Typhoon Tip

Course, the ICON ...lol, it either has NW bias, or is going to coup this to a warm scenario that ends as fake blue QPF that isn't verifying below 900 mb at all with that look. Actually has PF to Phinn' snowing ... It tries to flash to snow south but that is definitely fake in that set up.. I wonder if that's icing even for SW NH. Mm... haven't been personally impressed with this ICON model though so don't really use it much. Not sure how it does in this sort of look/set up

I just saw the NAM... It's a needle threader incarnate! caution on being optimistic or readily favoring that scenario because the NAM when it comes into the 60 to 84 hour ranges has a tendency to be NW ... owing to a tendency to be slightly too amplified - it's almost like what the global numerical ( Euro/GFS/GGEM) do at D7-10 , where they first scope these system in their distance frames like the moon coming over the eastern horizon - magnified and scary huge... lol. The NAM seems to do something similar then damps a bit coming into 48 < -- so forth. That is a narrow latitude there to begin with, so a 50 mile S correction of axis' and that rt 2 ends up down in CT... etc..

So.. for me, the nice take away on Thursday night into early Friday is the rain. It would be nice to put another 1.25" in the basin tills ... I'm not sure specifically what is offered here.. It may be .7" et... As far as snow...yeeeah. It's in there. I think the flash freeze is the interesting aspect, though.. At least, if we clear Friday afternoon and sun penetrates to Earth ...even if the temp holds around freezing at least the roads won't be too bad. As far as snow itself... that looks to me like an ANA lag back with cold wedging underneath doing the transition for this thing, more so than cyclonic dynamical feedbacks. Those tend to be over modeled. I won't call that a "red flag" but I'd cautionary yellow - I have seen countless cold insert end up with an evaporational slant deformation and steady on rad goes to virga. I think the critical aspect will be how soon does the advection aloft cut off ... the N/stream was hinting at more phasing yesterday, and we saw immediate positive returns in QPF ... but ultimately, the phasing is minimal and I don't personally see how it is going to get to be more, given to the surrounding hemisphere. It seems it may have maxed in guidance when taking that into consideration. The N/stream ultimately partially phases while the rest of the trough mass smears E and pancakes /cuts of the elevate advection and that is racing the wedge drying underneath. That's really taking a needle thread to an excruciatingly discrete level there... It may be a good system for meso modeling ...by virtue of their grid, they may have a better handling on timing the 1300 meter thickness collapse underneath that lag back seeding aloft -

Oh,... Euro has a 300 mb cloud problem - maybe that's part of it...didn't see that level on Monday ... but it's bone dry 500, 700 --> surface on west wind, through +7 c 850s so... if that 300 mb ceiling proves fake ...that 2-meter is going to be warmer than mid 60s throughout the SNE region... I'm not sure what the verification scores are at tedious sigma levels, tho.. Notice also it still frosts Sunday night - ... good mapling -

Actually MEX ... has 55+ at FIT, BED, and ASH on Thursday... Then, we snow Friday morning - classic spring bs... Then it's 74 Monday afternoon... of course. Curious, are the Euro operational 2-meter T products at Pivotal source "raw" machine guidance, or are they sent through a MOS milling before rendered out to those graphics? I'm asking because ... the MEX MOS for this next Mon/Tues are 62 ... which is 14 over climate in a product that is heavier weighted toward climate - specifically the farther out in time. Which means that the signal has to be pretty impressive to warm/pull that guidance that far about 48 or 50. Yet, the Euro numbers are actually slightly cooler, despite having a less contaminated, open heating look in the synoptic layout provided by the operational and the EPS... Seems odd... If these latter are perhaps machine milled by climate normalizing like the MEX, it may explain why they are not 72 in those environments, Mon and Tue afternoons. By then, ..them two days are definitely mixed out and have BL at least to 875 mb if not 850, so the adiabats should be realized and the Euro looks too cool at 67 for HFD Monday, with +8 at 850 and solid W, dry continental flow through a high sun irradiance... man, BDL will be 77 probably...

Sunday certainly looks relatively mild on the operation ( and EPS mean for that matter) Euro cluster... By 00z Monday (8 pm Sun evening..), 850s mb have ballooned the 0 C, N and E of NE. In fact, it looks like the day starts out around -1 of D.E.M. to +2 over NYC...and by that latter hour it is +4 or 5 up there and +6 or +7, NYC... The high pressure (sfc) associated with the modest seasonal ridge ...is actually starting out the day W but slips to a position S of LI by late ... but close enough by that we are separated from the gradient - this limits mixing. So the Euro suggests the 850 mb warms; I'm not sure if the above limits on mixing means the BL will extend to the 850 mb sigma level ( altitude..). It may not matter as much as that would in January... I mean, sometimes the sun being so sloped and weak in the dish pan of the solar nadir ...we warm up at 850 and it's stays chilly at the surface when this sort of DVM/ capping take place. But I'm not certain zippo RH at any standard sigma level ( 300, 500, 700, ...etc), implies pristine swept clean sky .. equinox + 1 sun ... Might be a nerd's paradise to monitor that. Either way, that's high intensity nape... even if it stays less than the 850 mb adiabat, with very light wind and that very warm sun the feel will faux it's way into honorable mention.

I'm sure you've/we've all heard this at one point or the other ...so to the straw man in the room, a changing climate means that kind of 'probability' inference is shakier. The total systemic forces that gave rise to whatever happened 50 years ago ...are not the same now. I think this is effecting everything actually ...from NAO correlating patterns to PNA modes...to longer termed seasonal hemispheres like ENSO ..all of them. 'A,' used to -->X ... Now? A --> (X'*B squared)/ pi lol, just sayn' We can't regress to those numbers if the forcing is changed - that's not very good "environmental math" ...

you actually run in this shit ? - I doff my cap ... I hate it! I hate running in anything less than about 55 ... tho negotiable if sunny a little. 40s or less I'm not fan.

I've seen this before in spring where there is a 'flash' that pans over the hemisphere ... it usually happens from mid March to mid April at some point, and the seasonal torch is relayed. I remember this happened really obviously in 2014, when that bomb missed a big blizzard ... I think that was mid or late March. The cold that had been plaguing the early spring wrapped up with that storm and exited and it was nearing 60 within a week after that 45 days of sub freezing - ...never turned back. The charts at the time had that same abrupt unilaterally abandoning of cold.. For us, it is not necessarily balmy times at all times ahead - so please integrate that into your thoughts as you precede through these next four weeks as a soft troller - LOL... No seriously, we still have private BD hell and cut-off blue surprise risk for while yet. But the flash is like this though? What happens is the cold 'density' just up and disappears and what's left behind is pocketed more trivial cool plumes. This appear to be what the Euro is after ..the key sort of era in the modeling the happens ever year where there's some critical week and the layout just almost abruptly abandons any 'attitude' of cold intent on mid latitudes. I call it the seasonal flash. I also see this in November going the other way ...but it's not as obvious in the autumn.

basically from Sunday on winter's over on this operational Euro run... Does it return for a fluke or even stay in April... maybe, but the super indices don't support that. They really haven't support these last couple arctic cut ins either so.. we'll see. But that circulation overall complexion has a Pac dominated flow going almost zonal along 60 N up in Canada, with everywhere south of there naked to the assault of post Equinox. Further yet the sub -20 C shit is finally retreated(ing) up to the N- slope of Alaska over to the archipelago of N. Canada.

Heh...not to be a dink but I don't think snow in March of any flavor as being very weird - In fact, I think today's 24/-1 combination of T/TD with zero cloud is actually more of an achievement than 24 and snowing. This f'n airmass just defeated a yato-yato ton nuclear fusion bomb and laughed at it -

actually Thurs does have a bit of a 'nape' appeal yeah but otherwise this week is winter. Late winter but give the forefathers some credit for picking March 21 as the first day of sping - lol

Yeah, we've been onto that ... It's not a block-buster ridge or anything, but it's easy to lose sight and sensitivity to the notion of what happens when you don't have a 50 kt, 900 mb, NNW liquid nitro hose aimed at us at this time of year. Actually, +2C maturing to +4C at 850 mb with a high in that position conducting what light zephyrs there are ... W-->E, zippo clouds ? I bet that 73 or '4

..and it's inside of 5 days ... that's bit more confidence inspiring for that model. Yeah, I agree warm up after still in tact. It looks like this week's event is perhaps that last hurrah - for this cold pattern anyway... Still waiting on La Nina spring

Interesting sub-genre sociological study there ... It may not even be a difficult insight to hypothesis why - Like what's happened between back whence, and the last 20 years ? The Internet. I think the problem has to do with pop -genera and saturation. It is not just the Internet; the tech-wherewithal of western civility makes it too easy across the music development life cycle. Somewhere in convenience, the "art" has suffered, because ...maybe the artists of lore also did and that was the inspiration for their brooding or celebration through song. Some in how the resolution of each stanza reflected that,.. may not be present in quick economics and celebrity rushing - something like that. Those older album formats were an 'intimacy investment' by individuals. The instrumentation in-song, and the artistry ... hate to say, but there's an ineffable 'glow' or 'spirit' about those musical artistry that is lacking in a lot of ways when comparing to party favorites by Pitt Bull ... The latter has its place and some of that is catchy, no doubt. But, it doesn't have the lock in the room, stare at the ceiling while the tunes playing set your mind on cruise control vibe to it. All musical genres, be it rap to metal to alternative and EMO... the musicality back whence arrives in waves of soul. The stuff that is catchy these days, hook you in quick but you learn the lesson again, it is the songs you don't know if like right away that you long to listen to 20 years later.

There's nuanced aspects to the 00z that make me wonder if yesterdays utopian appeal from mid weekend into mid next week ... is getting cleverly schemed out in the model's war-room against fun and happiness of humanity - lol.. I mean, there was tendency to put more emphasis on that 'pinch-low' down there as the ridge lobe (EPS ...etc..) is slabbing over top from D6 to 10 on this run. The prior trend was much more confidence instilling. If that gets just a little stronger and ends up N 5 deg latitude... doesn't matter what happens aloft. Leave NE and don't come back until June - That smacks somewhat of that continental tucking pattern I was euphemistically referring to last year - it's when the flow and ridge aspect folds over at higher latitudes and this creates weakness along the San Francisco to VA, Beach ~ latitudes in the means. Think Kelvin-Hemholtz ( https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Kelvin-helmholtz_billows) tendency: it may not be readily observed but it's forcing similarly. I've noticed more and more ... in warm seasons, we are setting up tendencies for SE flow in to the mid Atl as a result ... Surface ridging sliding E at higher in latitude and exiting more E of CC as opposed to settling S toward Bermuda. This is because those nodal ridge fold- overs represent pockets of synoptic DVM/ confluence and so sfc high pressures are formulating concomitantly. So, in the means you end up with displacing the mean SW heat trajectories farther NW.. The thing is... this means more DP is showing up in the averages from SNE and S, which keeps the nocturnal temp elevated, but knocks say the cap off the higher heat days. To get the 95 + big heat at our latitude, you really want the DP in the 63 range with an EML/ 850 kinetic layer.. You don't want 70+ DPs on a SSW flow... No one notices that... 101/64 is pig fart hot, and so is 93/76 ...blah blah

I dunno... 00z Euro brought at least light to the Pike ... 06z GFS is actually cat pawing moderately for a stint that far N too - But I think by "snow" ...you're thinking 'worth mentioning' - lol... yeah, I'd agree ... not looking good. One of or both things need to happen for more snow ... one, having this thing be strengthening, not attenuating, as it is approaching the eastern seaboard ..it would tend to lift the deformation axis while pulling cold in at lower levels for a transition blue. Two, the N/stream is presently modeled as negative interference - suppressing said deformation axis S ( N of d-formation zone is outside the cyclones reach as the standard synoptic convention). It needs to either back off completely get out of the way so that 'one' can happen, or, modulate and become dominate the other way ..capture and then this gets interesting quick. Unfortunately, trends are in the other direction on both - but, there's time.

Did Logan clock their trace of snow today?

So the 18z GFS pulls winter out after the late week suppression. Within a day or two thicknesses go above 540 and it’s the spring layout right to the end of that run almost a week and a half worth of days either raining at 552 thicknesses or sunny at 552 that’s Greenup

What’s interesting is that cutoff low is not very deep in the troposphere it’s actually not a typical standard deviation depth for that kind of event /time of year...but then again it also is pretty localized; it’s that one band doing that

I'm pretty sure (??) La Nina springs tend to be dryer than normal - I'm not a big fan of ENSO's anymore in the heart of the winters ..as I'm suspecting increasingly so that intense mid winter hemispheric/ambient gradient saturation is tending to mute that ENSO as primary in pattern forcing. We've been noting over recent winters the lack of real-time/ correlated appeals to patterns on either warm(cool) side of the ENSOs... - although it is interesting that Australia did pick up a decent wet summer this year. By and large, however, the hemisphere's have not been registering the same climate impacts along known geographical/routes .. .. anyway, I'm not sure if that is "as" true as a hypothesis application in autumns and springs. Anyway, ... I also don't believe in "droughts" in New England as much as I do dry eras... that 'mimic' droughts. This isn't west Texas... Autumns here seldom look like their preceding summers, which altogether are utterly noisy in the statistics compared to ensuing winters...etc... If dry eras last through all three, it's just good night at the crappes table.

In fact.. if that 'weakness' off the lower M/A continues to minor out, that ridge may gain vertical depth in the DCA latitudes, which would service us with taller BL thickness/deeper layer conveyor, too.. We go from 69 ish to 79'ish. Can't be ruled out because as the ridge node's been gathering weight across successive run cycles, so to has that thing been filling -

I saw that - I'd like to add that we're putting that up on a D9 ... D 9 ! oh, right you mentioned that - heh right That might be antithetically similar to 995 mb low on a D9 EPS in turns of relative or absolute value. Just guessin' but yeah... that may also not be a signal that's done trending. If one cares to reset that product to D7 (168 ) and click previous 3 or 4 times, it's been gaining hypsometric depth on every cycle ... 2 and 3 dm intervals. True for the GEFs as well - even though the operational run is clearly created to insidiously hide global warming ...

vis has been fluctuating between 1/4 and 1/2 mi here for 20 min - strange "squall" ... it's not really accumulating efficiently ..really at all. Melting on contact but ground starting to feather. Oh, okay - looks to finally be easing up now. So tomorrow is brutal ... I was just looking at the 12z TI numbers of the NAM for Logan and they are -12 C ! 10F over a bare ground in mid March... it's relatively rare to get that cold there anyway, but this is getting late and doing so with little/no cryo help ... But, it's also just 12 hours and it's shucked seaward. It's a testament to the general telecon layout not really supporting this air mass - and they haven't really ... - that it can't sustain. It's sort of a anomalous drive-by face smack - LOL.

I mean.. . my god... It's like 3 days in the top 3 - The biggest fear is that it's D6 to 10 so it's like the antithesis of the D8 bomb. Lol -