Typhoon Tip

Well I jumped in the middle that conversation so I don’t know what you guys were really talking about I just thought that was funny how Cohen seemed informing us that people have an IMBY attitude. No shit really Also I still have not seen any definitive evidence to prove that this is a downward or propagating warm anomaly ... Open to seeing that down motion evidence if provide I think this is a warm anomaly that upwelled from below ...up into the tropopause and is folding over in the euro products because that warm node has been there over the north east Siberian Alaskan sector all autumn long and there was never any over arcing high sigma level s-stratospheric warming thermal plume detected in the CDAS But ironically… and to Cohen’s point… It’s not gonna matter because that feature folding into the flow would probably cause a giant ridge explosion in the EPO and that’s going to set things akilter towards a cold storm pattern should that actually evolve that way. So who cares what’s the difference

Right right ... in other words his audience are IMBY pinheads ... what? He discovered the internet yesterday ?

Amazing but the JMA carries it too -

OH, ...okay - I see ...this does some help to reconcile matters.. That is technically probably a -PNA in the derivatives with higher heights ENE of Hawai'i out over the eastern Pac like that...but, the wave length is unusually long - fascinating. thanks for posting this - ... that 'splains it rather nicely. See, that ridgecrest to ridgecrest being coastal B.C. to transiently Greenland is a bit unusually broad.

Interesting ... sucks, but interesting - The GEFs looke that way-ish btw. It's kielbasa-worthy to point out but true nonetheless ...the PNA is a huge domain space. We probably can support a +PNAP look over the continent ...if ephemeral, during a -PNA over all. Doesn't sound very scientifically responsible but it doesn't feel like the PNA is going to do that - it may come to me why on the treadmill.

It's the 12th ... we'e been flagging that 8-12th period ... I thought there may be two events book-ending, but having one or the other become dominant is not unusual going deep blurry range inward. I was just noting that the GGEM and GFS both carry substantive trough through the E nearing the 12th+ but so it may be more of a 'what' over 'if' - ... if indeed the PNA is about to enter a robuster rise hey, does the EPS PNA avail to us anyone ? See, that flow emergence out there is going have better predictive skill than this nebular wave contention crap we just dealt with ... just sayn' Realize no one wants to hear that now but - it is what it is

NARCAN

I was joking with Ray the other night and mentioned how 2015 seemed to crop up out of nowhere - Maybe having the CDAS lie about the status for the thermal/pressure coordinates while the Euro Org has a 50 mb tsunamis are hugely inspiring forecast signals, huh -

That said ...definitely interested in the EPS ... The individual 12z GEFs members have mixed sentiments re the D7 ... but are much more colorfully ebullient about the D10 one... They have both tho

You know... just looking at the operational runs - forgetting the GEFs or EPS for the moment ... that's a huge Archembault signal there - I mean, we go from a nebular failed -NAO ( ... NAO may in itself be real just bear with me...), to a complete PNA forced regime change - or it is thought. Whatever the reason the PNAP part of the PNA is definitely ...very rapidly entering a coherent positive circulation type ...really fast... That's like 2.5 days of that sequence used to reorient the entire synopsis, so what happens ....? Boom TV-NE transit for the starry-eyed dreamers - We'll see if it has legs...

Now for reality checking ... eh hm - There's 8 days .... 8 ( in case your deaf ..heh) for that to fumble around get all kindsa fugged up - do you think the super-agency forces of fractals and reality will resist ?? LOL... obviously we all know this has no hope - but, I want to get the humor stream to fill to bankfull and spread out across the playground where rumor mills hangs out at the swing set ..so that this has any hope of being rescued when said agency in fact proves it cannot resist.

You know ...not to be a dink but, can we please ask that these people posting these SSW claims get more responsible about citing their sources AND that includes provisional examples - where allowable? People are getting information and jockeying for headline gaslighting and it's really getting annoying. But, my point is... we might have some idea wtf is going on with these source disparities/indicators therein.

Yeah...I did, Scott, mention that I was 'waiting in the wings' because I am not sure if other agencies have a different take on things - This does not match the CDAS no LOL... Like I said, just going with those CPC conventional channels. Thing is, ...something is f'ed up with American agencies lately - not to be political, but I'm wondering if there's an econ. thing with the present DC admin ... CDC suspended calculating teleconnectors entirely, because as I was told by personnel there ... when the GEFs recently included all those new members it invalidated the EOF layouts and there is no recursive funding to fix them - made to be broken. No plan as to when that gets fixed, either - jesus Anyway, if that's more valid okay - no argument. But I've never seen the CDAS be off kilter - but, we've never managed to elect a Stallinistic fascist to president either so ...times are changin'

The other nearly pointless model analysis effort because it's D8 to consider ... better hope the S/W kicker over Iowa is legit, because that total wave spacing between California and NS is too long - that sucker could easily end up in Buffalo if it were not for that thing pushing it right along. Again .. day 8 yeah I know -

Not to be crank, but, ... the Euro just dealt us a lie not 48 hours prior to this last "spectral snow storm" ... I'm sure we all know that tho lol

Perhaps ...I dunno - but the top image I provided does not contain an SSW... when every year that has one, looks like the 2006 example I provided - or a closer approximation. I have also seen those warm 5 and 10 mb nodes pop off and not down well as I've been monitoring this shit for decades. They are not provable/statistically significant modulators prior to the onset of -AO... Again, the AO this time predates even those 5 and 10 hPas this year - I guess I respectfully disagree - I don't think we've had an SSW that matches the behavior set of historical inference. I think there are some coincident behaviors going on - ... we'll see how the rest of the year goes. Also, the QBO is not in the typical phase for SSW ...it's not a deal breaker or nothin... but usually the QBO is in the easterly phase -

That's a nice two-stream subsume phased solution there... The starting heights are not overly deep - but that's been a part of this pattern and may be residual as modulator leading those mechanics.. That said, that appears be structurally quite proficient so, it may actually "core" that mess out once that gets more phased in and the total cyclogenetic feed-backs start lower heights from synoptic lift and [ lots of popsicle headache ...] leads to be deeper relative to the input streams.

I've been waiting in the wings on this topic - I don't see where an SSW of the ilk that matters to "forcing" on the AO has actually happened. Granted, the monitoring has suspended as it normally does flipping the new calendar year. Probably when they get back in office/recovered from PTOs around the holidays they'll update the last week's worth ... but prior to that, there was no SSW in the typical channels that are given to the free/public access: Those small yellow pockets up there in the 5 to 30 hPa sigma levels are not it ... those are normal thermal 'noise' that is typical at suspension and decay ... What one should be looking for is this ( left hand side): Someone out there in the e-din of the social media ...where it overlaps more convention social comms of the society - new's paper/tele/radio etc... - is bandying claims of SSW and it's beginning to bag as that source not really understanding what it is they are looking for ... Now, I have been 'waiting in the wings' because I am not entirely certain they may have some other monitoring method/access out there; it may be possible that the method used by the CPC just hasn't detecting it but more on that below ( 2nd bullet point ..), but it seem unlikely that would be the case. 1 .. SSW are prominent features that are discernable, like is seen above - please see this site and evaluated years past, and you'll start to sense that this is not happening(ed) this year to date. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ 2 .. They are coherently disruptive in a lag correlation that average 20 days. Why? Because the kind of thermal pulsation en masse that we are looking for in SSW phenomenon, downwells in the atmosphere as a (literally) downward moving mass of warm air layers ...You can see that in the above image... a year long from 2006. That year featured a very strong and clearly defined SSW, and you can see ( left ..) how the pulse of warmth moved downward as the x-coordinate ( time ..) along the bottom aged on. You can see also it was nodal in nature, with a warm arc having a centroid warm mass the appears approximately once a week...that's because the warm pulse rotates around the pV as it descends... while the pV over all is warming... Notice also the cold coupled that emerges over top - that is the complete circulation eddy of the SSW phenomenon... 3 .. None of that has happened this year according to CPC's 30 years of data to use as inference - 4 .. What has happened: There has been a peculiar semi permanent warm node at around the 50 and 100 hPas that has persisted over NE Siberian/Kamchatka/Alaskan regions ... I suspect - though am not certain ..only suspect - that whatever source(s) are hitting the SSW so hard are or have mistaken that as being an SSW... Regarding that a .. there are almost no SSW since monitoring began that have ignited in October or November... In fact, the earliest I think is early Dec. b .. in order for the propagation timing of the 20 days to be stablizing the pV and causing it to break down ( -AO ), it would have had to take place by early December to be forcing now. c .. the present -AO predates any consideration before even having this discussion. The AO can be motivated to fall from the normal Hemispheric tumult - in the off chance that warm anomaly is in fact being mistaken: those positive anomalies in the 100 hPa level we see up there did not arrive from top down - no they did not... They were instilled into that region prior to any normal SSW gestation that is the correlation model for forcing the -AO, during the mid to late autumn via other mechanisms.

Here's an odd one... the 00z Para psychosis GFS version takes a 985 mb low passing SE of the BM down to 953 mb in just 6 hours ... That's RI/TC territory there... In fact, I don't think I've ever heard of that kind of deepening rate like ...on Earth

Yeah... low is anchored out there ... and bands are moving west ... There's even semblance of a small eddy gyre over Upstate NY ..quasi attached to that mess. The whole thing is intrinsically in retrograde characteristic, and whether the NAO is demonstrative in the grids or observations, that retrograde behavior is consistent with -NAO. See, I mentioned this last week - that sometimes the flow begins to act prior to the onset of the actual index presentation - it's like the physical triggers are detected in the model(s) physical process before hand. I don't know if that's really what's happening here - it just reminds me of that conversation. Either way, this day's banded west movement was pretty heavily suggested by guidance over the last four days of denial that this thing would miss - ha. And staring at those sat loops because it's like anything the swirls! yeah... heh, anyway, it's almost easy to see how a Feb 1969 can set up - if that thing out there was rattling around between Cape Cod and D.E.M. ..it'd be sending consecutive intervals of moderate snows in to eastern NE

My own meaningless twaddle ... - i get what Scottness is sayn' The term "suppression" in so far as what it means for this social media means 'mashed too far S to get our euphoria fix' ...? lol.. However, the flow is suppressed out there in these looks, either way. That's why I like using the word "compression" - because it removes that other distinction and just refers to the overall setting as too many height lines and the flow has to speed up to the point where it starts shearing. So, this is a semantic clarification more than anything, and it's based on my rules ... so not likely to be adopted. Understood ... - re the NAO ... mm... I see what and why mr Webb on the Web is suggesting both a -EPO and -NAO "get to happen" like a lip-wetting greedy safe cracker that's just broken into Fort Knox.. buuuut, I'm willing to hedge that if the gradient rich look returns with that nice orderly faster R-wave construct from Hawai'i to Halifax like that... the NAO gets fire hosed off the charts. I suspect the recent NAO is really more of a "flop" wave mechanical result of a relaxation everywhere that took place when the main ballast of the PV dislodged and slipped deeply into the western Pacific/+WPO monster. When that happened...entropy of patternization swept into this side of the hemisphere - and there's a reason why we see this nebular look with shallow cut-offs dappled in between an array of vaguely anomalous ridging nodes... It's because there really isn't a very well defined systemic layout of R-waves on this side of the hemisphere at present - it's changing though.. The guard appears to be trying to go back to the placing colder seasonal heights into middle Canada...and when that happens, the gradient steepens everywhere, ...flow speeds up ...boom, +PNAP more like emerges out of the ether once that focusing mechanism is turned on... Caveat emptor: the -AO ...That's still a whopper negative out there even into week 2, no longer correcting up ... Yesterday or the day before, all members of the GEFs camp were trying to signal a neutralization of that index into week 2, but suddenly, ...8 of the 12 members used at CPC have returned to -3 or even -4 SD... AO shares domain space with the NAO but only partially ... there is a disconnect, and we can certainly find plenty of examples of -AO/-EPO/+NAO ... - part of the problem is... the HC. Don't think that the expansion stuff isn't prevalent, just because the flow is currently 'relaxed'. It's still there, it's just not being exposed - that happens when the colder heights return ( or attempt...) to mid-latitudes.... That ~ 3 to 6 dm of insidious GW surplus ( comparing previous climate paradigm) still integrates Below the 40th parallel ( probably closer to the 35th ), and it doesn't vanquish. When the cold heights return, the gradient extends over larger distance anew...and that drives wind rage.. evincing the existence by way of resistance - sorry about the rhyme. The gradient increase in the large scale, and the faster hemisphere is like the UV lamp/'black light' in this sense. Again... I'm not just being whimsy...this still is covered in the special climate reports, as well as clearly stating that the boundary that demarcates the HC's termination into the westerlies band ( which in itself demarcates the interface between the HC and Farrel Cell at higher polar latitudes), is amorphously defined - SO now that no one has read this far ... I suspect we are heading for a -AO/ -EPO more so than -NAO ... I also wonder if the -EPO is unstable... I say so because the WPO ...in the atmosphere of 1955 - 1980 ... It tends to precede the EPO, positively correlated by time lag in the latter aspect. I am not seeing the WPO as falling --> AB Pac --> -EPO evolution...I'm just noticing the -EPO ...it's not a stable hemisphere. But here's the interesting supposition - I have opined in the past about how the teleconnector climo appears to be rattled by much of this climate change shit.. I wonder if a faster hemisphere might actually offer a pathway to sustain more +WPO/-EPO as "standing wave" phenomenon -

Nah no James ... look, the problem in the GFS /..NAM is clearly the ICON Yoy really have focus a long while there

You’re right… But not intensely right ha ha but seriously. now is the culture of our discontent. Recent events ... or lack thereof heh, impugning the models and their performance beyond 48 hours is right popular! People are pissed - that’s what happens. However they are better than just 48 hours by a goodly percent, objective empirical data verification scoring and fairness. Even if you’re just being hyperbolic by saying that… We should point that out because believe me this is how meme rumors get spun up and people then start believing it like it’s bricks in the foundation of wisdom. I have personally lived and experienced month and a half long patterns that were so predictable models nailed amounts at eight days out not just event type – there are predictable times; now it’s just not one of them. The models are pretty damn good out even 108 hours as average perf - I think I read 60% around that range before the water turns dark blue. maybe in this pattern reduce move that to 84 ... 72 Just throwin numbers around but you get it

Not really no. True colors ? I’m interested in interesting meteorological phenomenon. This? ... fails to be interesting when it persists I know you really want to jar me in with that cinema persecution shit but I don’t have that kind of mood attachment to this engagement I don’t

Yeah ... the event is 84 for four days this time lol