Typhoon Tip

It's real and it's fast given the right circumstance, tho. Not sure I'm in the 'eh' camp on that one given these metrics in play. Sub rates depend very specifically upon wind and DP depression ... It might be an interesting to lab that out... Lay-in a fragile 1/2 " of differentiating ratio snow ending in the 20:1 range. Then whirl 50mph routine wind currents over it with a -20 DP depression air mass ( which looks ~ to what happened overnight). Mm.. I suggest a lot evaporated too - I'm sure you are correct that it blow around as well - figure out how much went into which physical process.

It goes against La Nina spring climate... but, climate is like Laws; they are meant to be broken so that the circumstances that led to the perp's motivation vs the Law its self can be examined as a means to test the Law's underpinning humanitarian philosophy of/as applicable - LOL Seriously, that product is a 384 hour mean - about the best we can glean from that ( we can't glean anything deterministic of course...) is that a few members have to be rather robust with the western ridge/ eastern trough, typical R-wave coupling tapestry in order to move the mean that far into a vestige of that construct. I betcha ... wouldn't it be neat if the return rate on anti-correlated La Nina Marches actually "by coincidence," equalled the % of present EPS members that trying to indicate that at this time.

Nice knowin' ya, kid

Anecdotally ... just from my existential/personal accounting and memory ... this 'might' have busted Advisory by perhaps 10 mph in mean momentum. Prelim - We'll have to go back and review specific AFD content from surrounding offices, but the distribution of headline/Advisory packaging... this appears to be a classic expose' in the uncertainties and difficulties predicting wind. This warranted a Warning for most. The criteria appears to have been met, ...yet regionally: Advisory - It's not a knock or criticism... it's an observation that requires followup. I was wondering when I saw it modeled, differential CAA in tandem with plummeting 498 dm height well hanging over KFIT by 12z ...just how we would get that much plumbed out of the atmosphere without turning things over quite a bit ... In the 10 years I've lived ( longer than I ever intended to..) in the township of Ayer, Ma, I can say that last night's creaking walls and low decibel thump sensations resonating through this home, while jet-liner back-wash so loud that I had to turn in my sleep ...if not admit to some apprehension at times, rivals any wind event across that decade of time. I do not possess nor know where to find specific wind accounting for Ayer Ma, but wouldn't be shocked if it was the highest sustained and gusting combination. I did not lose power - prooobably that's more a function of less air foiling suspended by barren foliage and wind from a 2ndary prevailing direction - those two factors allow force dissipation of course... blah blah. It's why SE gales sometime are more prolific root ball lifers and grid problem makers, because the wind is going against the kitty's fur - Anyway, subtle but interesting positive wind bust - probably unnoticed by J.Q. Public because believe me...only we in here and lawyers differentiated between Advisory and Warnings - lol

probably sublimationg too - direct to WV ... due to advection/turbulent mixing of ultra dry air that flooded in on the heels of that amorphously defined arctic boundary

Boy ... days 7 thru 10 make that annoying bullshit out there worth it ... that’s gonna both eradicate the snow and tinge the cut fields green by the end of that. Signal gaining weight ...finally operational run that’s catching up to the telecon spread. Way out there tho ... but that is right in the falling PNA window and the NAO’s rise entering week two so it does have the table set Just gotta get past that pinch-low in foreground I’m ready. Pandemic imprisonment and no chance for snow in March becomes cruel and perhaps this is a merciful lord nah-

For spring/ warm enthusiasts ... this 18z run bucking for a D9 run at 75 ... At the time of this west Caribbean conveyor arcing all the way up, there is an intense eastern/SE ridge with 582 dm hgts nearing NYC over top this subtropical connection... Anyway - probably has about as much chance at verifying as a D9 bomb would but for those on the other side of the track, you'll start seeing this more and more...

Hey George ....

Well... some good news? I know the spring/warmth enthusiasts in here are marked with red wax like an apiary zoologist doing anti-social research ... ( lol ) and I wear my honesty on my sleeve - I'm one of them. But hey, y'all know I'm a winter enthusiasts from October 15 until March too ... I'm just equally into summer's all Anyway, the 12z Euro tries to warm things up again in the D6+ ... it kept trying to push that out every run - I joked about earlier but in truth. This run seems to have picked up as though those interceding delay runs didn't happen. The D8 is now door-stopping a warm front at 12z that day... So... maybe a 2 or so day of spring out there.

It might be my fault I had a knee jerk thought that it may come back ...the old ' lost for several cycles routine,' and the 00z Euro has a 'subtle' tease backward with that thing too... etc... It was a like floating a lit match over perfect fume concentration - BOOM that contiguous run-on paragraph exploded into emergence like literary bombogenesis - just waiting for an excuse to blow the roof off this party He's just enthusiastic and unrestrained - good kid I'm sure.

Bit of an on-line cultural shift over the years. Earlier in this 25 years of internet era ... people were apprehensive by lacking familiarization.. but that familiarization has long become intimacy-with-the-web, by the vaster majority of populous by now - no doubt. Along with that... People have become brazen ...using it for personal exposure for many different motivations...etc.. Unfiltered opinion advancement that is fringe for either quantifiable reasons, or just down right 'not sounding right'? That comes with that culture change. Now it's an expose' for people that probably would make for good fiction writers given the right encouragement and instructive guidance- haha. More freedom of expression certainly sounds good on paper. Catch-22 ( seems I'm saying that a lot today ) because the fact of the matter is... it is morally superior NOT to suppress people. Back when Eastern was in its hey day, I got the feeling they/we benefited from not having to wade through banana bomb posts to get to ... lucidity. They also had less reason to change because they were sort of having an 'island control,' by virtue of their popularity draw. They had like 10,000 members...? Obviously not all on at once. Ha, we know what happened to the site when even a fraction dumped in all at once... Anyway, the ongoing atmosphere back then was bit too tightly constrained for all that, for a coupe reasons. One, people just wouldn't dare. They didn't risk appearing unsophisticated/ over ebullient yokel-like in visions in grandeur - "bunning" was actually eschewed and dreaded even. Wow have things changed in this new atmosphere ... Now...? it's a joke - people like try to earn buns on a goof. "Ha ha go ahead a bun me" - I'm sure I'm getting one just for mentioning this...Lol... But the other reason that same culture was also built into the moderation - even if it did seem a bit fascist at times. I remember when this site first launched and I came in here ... I started posting like I always had out in the main forum arena, and was met with chillier silence. At first I thought it was just the bigger draw/new users. Unfamiliar alias/names meant a familiarization curve. But it was something else.. PM's began arriving from actual mods that were intoned like, 'who the f do you think you are' It was pretty coherently confrontational. I was taken aback. 'What the hell is this?!' I didn't really connect that this was not the same Kansas anymore ...haha... Took me a few weeks, too. But there really was a cluster of mods on a power trip - they brinked me to within inches from disappearing for good ( I'm sure y'all regret their failure ha... ) - titanic assholes of biblical proportion. It was figuratively "Internet Lord Of The Flies" for while. I don't know what happen to them? It is hoped they got cut loose but ..most likely they just lost interest and went on f some other aspect of their lives up ( we pray - ) I'm wondering again, sorry. Anyway, the filtering of old was both bad and good... It was bad for obvious reasons ... Freedom of expression for one. Any opinion capping, whether fearing ridicule from bully- trolls and ass hat elitism that way ... or institutional suppression using moderation to enforce what ultimately is protecting elitism... is still fascist and is bad ... There's no real upside in the long run. It probably just would have been a matter of time that another "Eastern" would have launched anyway, that was more free-spirited and unconstrained - if not here, there ... at which point the cycle of life would have vacated. Several years ago, I went back to that link and it was still active - like shell of the former realm. But, a little apprehension and sophistication is also good - the trick is in how to get there without being an asshole. You gotta encourage against unfiltered imaginative content that while plausible, is highly unlikely. Why not create thread that dumps automatically ever 50 pages, that is a repository for wild hypothesis -

Right... yup - my bad... NJ ... but yeah

I wonder if the March 9/10 ordeal may try to come back ... I could almost see it coming back - also - as a spring cut-off drifter over the W. Atl/ astride the EC ... too. I mean it's still way out there ...

Yeah...and it's layered - sorry I'm bombing you with replies ...just happened to be in the roulette timing right now .. lol But, I see this winter as being supplanted by the -AO ..which at times ...spanning some three weeks in late Jan into early/mid February... plumbed to -6! It was book-ended on the front end by another negative phase of its own; both of these nadirs negative towered some -4 to even -6 standard deviations. That is a helluva lot of implied exertion down to middle latitudes, ... I suspect in greater proportion modulating the hemispheric eddy into something that ... yeah, doesn't look like it was ENSO attributed. The problem is...with HC packed down underneath ( hyperbole..), that made for intriguingly weird scenarios where blocking rested at times over fast flow - that is a very highly unusual, and equally non-discussed characterization that took place a lot actually. But here's the 'layering' aspect. I don't know if merely removing the -AO would suddenly evince an underpinning La Nina characterization, either. We've had this discussion... I think the general even NON AO hemisphere ( as in normal boreal winter) heights .. pressing down upon the empirically proven expanding HC shit... that's been modulating ENSO 'efficacy' if you will in forcing .. even if we removed the AO I'm not sure the La Nina would be exposed because of the ongoing circumstance... I had mused/posited that the spring could flip more dramatically warmer ...at a minimum, definitively AN... whence the AO relaxed? That relaxation has come and passed and we are not seeing that happen. It's interesting... This La Nina is not interested in taking over...

Depends upon what one is using I suppose ... There numerical equivalence of the teleconnectors from CPC ... don't match the individual members If you go to PSU as a free, quick and dirty coarse review, and float your mouse over those members, http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/ensloopnew.html, individually, they don't look as warm as a CPC index site. Yet the latter keeps signaling spring Frustrating... particularly for someone like me, that really would like to comfortably get out of the house. But I'm highly confident that is more ubiquitously shared. Longish post beyond this point ... It's not the same as that bag-o psycho babble aspect of being moody and emotively guided by the weather chart cinema - not even in the same concept. Different subject... Strictly, this year is particularly and uniquely challenging coming into dreadful New England "spring" climate... There are four season on the planet, and since New England has three ...clearly, we are in hell and not part of this planet. We have autumn, winter, Caligula torture .. terminating into a summer stolen down to 10 minutes. Seriously, it has to do with a more normal, human response in any scenario where personal freedoms are being affected - whether for virtuous cause and benevolence aside. This pandemic shit is imposing based upon a catch-22, philosophically. But that philosophy is a damned good one! We've spent close to a million years in human evolution ... where/when freedoms "inside our safe zones" did not include these masks ... nor distancing ..etc.. We are not intrinsically adaptive for not having processed through any 'Darwinian' crucible there in - in evolutionary time comparison, this is like the time it takes to pick up a hot handle. It is therefor not in our genetics - literally that is true. What we do is purely a cerebral move, one that proves human ingenuity/brain-trust ...probably higher sentience and 'awareness' in general, have all outpaced Nature's normal 'testing' process of adaptation. It's true across the board. From math to Mozart, telescopes to microscopes, Quantum Mechanics to General Relativity, Genetics research, to deep field Astronomical Sciences and back ...these 'achievements,' what we are now doing both to our selves and the total Earth "Gaia" ... they are inherently in conflict with the "rate" it takes to get adaptation through those Darwinian gates. Thus, self- imposed ( 'species' imposing in this context) limitations on personal freedom are still just limitations on personal freedom. At the instinctual level .. the virtuosity and "experimentation" that is felt utterly necessary ...all that, is in conflict - nothing else. You know... a million years of instinct momentum ... c'mon. It's obviously gonna win against the conceit of of these limitations ... That's why for this 'soft revolt.' ... You can see it in the way society is sort of turning nose from the subtle aroma of hypocrisy going on.. States began alleviating restrictions when this thing was like 10 minutes past that monster peak 45 days ago... etc ..etc.. People are getting more sick of it than that which they fear - that usually emboldens through anger ... The inevitable, systemic tough shitness modality takes place. People are going to get sick and die, but the majority won't and it's getting precariously close to a scenario where the instinct will supplant this ideology that we can win against a biological force that has had 3 billion years to perfect its self. That's what these variances are from - btw ... They are the virus fighting back through mutation ... Eventually, they'll figure out a combination of DNA codes that gets by any vaccine ''fire-wall" and we'll just go through this all over again... We vaccinate for the Spanish flu ....every year, anew. They are called genomic ancestors: Influenza-A and Influenza-B ... Coronavirus is not getting defeated ... it's changing into something else. But, the upshot there is that they usually mutate into a less virulent forms - it doesn't ultimately favor a virus' pathogenicity to kill the host. Anyway... it feels like the Rubin 'The Hurricane' Carter's story, where he was wrongfully imprisoned by systemic racism in southern cultural Law, and they stole like 40 years of his life ... and every time we wake up and that Euro has pushed that D9 warm up out another day, and held the trough back and inserted another ( non-entertaining...) -20 C 850 mb cold dildo instead, it's just another in the innumerable failed appeal processes that proved insufficient against the systemic racist. Finally, ... after his life was all be claimed, an appeal succeeded... I guess that's our 10 minutes of summer in this dark metaphor.

As a snap shot ? no .. obviously looking at that, it's well enough seawards to not matter. The risk assessing there at 162 hours out ... heh, it's close.

Haven't seen any other guidance ..so taken fwiw/ above ..that's something I've been warning swoosh in March - those "apprehensive" ...if you wanna call 'em that ... have erstwhile benefited from the fact that the various chartage has seldom if at all very much resembled either the back ground climate argument ( not CC but La Nina -rooted ...) ...etc.. not gonna run down that again. We'll see... I did just look briefly at the GFS... tries to destroy citrus crops again by sending bud-pusher weather up our way then collapsing into the teens way out there

The difference between tomorrow's dawn through noon versus Tuesday's is nothing shy of appalling!! my god - +8 C at 850 in laze faire westerly air, under partly sunny tomorrow -24 C at 850 in a cryo stung hell of 50 mph turbines on Tuesday w t f Talkin a 32 veritable mixing depth swing

Oh right, of course not... Yeah their thinking 'it's Ayer' ... good shot at a cold call hitting a mortgag as a credit risked, handsome interest rate saddled schmuck ... They're providing the easy way out. Nothing wrong with that... sometimes when I spending 5,000 on a new back roof, or 7K on new windows that required frame and sill work... new flooring ... jesus, it never ends..I've fantasize mailing the key the MP and fleeing to the tropical island and tending a teke bar. Houses bought up in this town some 10 years ago... 180 for a small ranch...? They'll probably throw 190 or 200 at you, you get out of it... They'll either raise the house and build new one for 75, 000 const. cost then sell for 450K ( now that the ring of speculation is in the area ). Or just flip it and sell and try 350K

Oh yeah... you know I was more than half joking way off the deep end... I just re-read that - have to pat myself. I was giggling all the way through that. Sometimes one's best writing is from the hip through a morning fog of lax inhibited, partial caffinated fugue. Can't hurt to have a distaste of disgruntling for humanity, either ... n'yuk No but yeah diet diet diet. Ray's actually right - ... I mean, first of all * duh * we're talking about vanity? Who cares over 30 ... well, 40 ... maybe 30s are in that gray area. But by the time 40 hits more are denying 1/4 of there chest hair curls gray and even found one on their nut sack and there heart skipped a beat. Luckily...it holds in that state until 53 before it gets much worse. But concomitant with those 'wisdom whiskers' comes an abandonment of denials and acceptance of one's stature and ... the working out? It's about 'feeling good' - feeling good about one's self. I mean excuse the Tony Robbin's babble for a moment ... if one is having a cosmic dong day and there are no determinably saddling aspect with a shitty physical limitation .. a work out does remarkable things to elixir that torment. Then, putting a nice salmon dinner with vegatables on top and waking up shredded ... it just seems to help - as one gets on and grows up, that's really way more important. And diet helps work outs so the two reinforce one another and the total gain...all that. And skinny dudes/girls can can modulate the body and diet is important ... if they have to work hard to get over genetic limitations, that'll help - As you are right also - by and large, know one's body type.. modulate a life style accordingly and you'll get there or some acceptable goal along the way. My particular thing is I'm probably 6, 3, 1, ecto meso endo in that order .. .maybe 5,2,2 .. but do probably too much of one work out type and not enough commitment to mass building to fairly complain. I 'm kind of full of shit on that part of it. Until I start doing Whey and Arnold note keeping on rep counts like those other jar heads in the gym I probably am just being assholey there -

Maybe yeah... 'cept , ha - 222 hours re a phenomenon that inherently is invisible if it is one of those, and has to sneak up as part of the the definition of what 'little critter that bites' means ( i.e., under-estimated) ... That advance notice torpedoes the invisibility requirement .. to mention, "little"? - trying to survive the tyranny of 222 hours of fractal-flow mayhem in La Nina battling God's for supremacy of which gets to break the most hearts ... probably doesn't end well for said little critter actually being there at that time... That said, yeah...in a vacuum that ignores all that ... it does look like that. Anytime a piddling system has a single physical metric that is unusually powerful embedded side an a dizzying array of nuances ... it stands a chance of over producing.

For me ... I find the notion of 'not grading until March is over', vs March looks unavoidably like a giant piece of shit across the spectrum of various charting and ensemble tooling ( telecon's ..etc..) combined ... as mutually exclusive realities. It's interesting too - because while neither of those are disputable, quoting Newton, "Two truths can never contradict" - yet being in this state of affairs apparently denies that conclusion. Maybe from that we can infer that one of those lead premises must therefore be false. ... My guess is that mood determines which ...? Yeah, if "healthy realism" is in play, ... giant piece of shit wins... and the former don't grade 'till March is over folk can eat said shit. If former turns/proves right, that invariably proves the 2nd premise of shitness wrong... Either way, it's almost like where "April is the cruelest month..." March should be dubbed the giant asshole month.

There's truth in this sentiment's essence ...whether hyperbolic or not - I'm 10 years into a home I never intended to live in this long. It's literally "over the tracks" - probably in both the trope dark comedy aspect, but is so in physical setting. There are 4 rails out that window, literally 150 feet over the road then a bit farther, not too well concealed by a brambling of shrubbery, bitter-sweet vine -strainied junk elm and maples, with typical strew of wind blown old plastic litter if also few vacated syringes on the thicket floor. This services both the Purple -line, and Freight traffic. They carefully negotiate ...using this area for a switch yard. Haven't yet witness a derailing or ( eesh ) collision.. but, .. given time, the cosmos assures everything happens at least once, with only one exception: I get to collide favorably with the woman of my dreams. In the meantime I await a loud 3 am banging and eventual bull horned pout of door to evacuate the inevitable chemical spill some day ... From elevation.. .there is a main double track line, skirted one additional on either side, extending west-to-east. The layout splits and goes south, an artery the 'real' switch yard mega facility ... down there in Worcester. West of here...I've bothered to geek it on the web..it appears the line connects to Amtrak out there around Great Berrington ... and also branches off to Alb/ Mohawk Valley .. others down to NY/N. Jersey industrial parks. The east one go to Boston ...and branch to service Maine it looks like. But it's shaped like a "T" ... so they seasaw and load quarter to half mile long train segments onto these side rail lengths, and then couple up and move them up and down to switch... And that means.. .my house..wobble and shakes like a 3.9'er any any hour of the night while they do that transitional two-step logistical activity with 100, 000 tons in both directions. Oh, and while that is happening... the commuter rail zips through at maxed urban speed allowance. I never visualize my life being stuck in station...having to be annoyed by that... But, I guess I could go down and ask those balled -head nine-year-olds of Dana Farber Institute what they think of an 'annoying life' - maybe not so bad... Sometimes at 2:45 a.m. one can be standing there in the darkened kitchen, scratching balls through a yawn and a glass of wee-hour water, when some motion draws attention toward the window. Under the street lamp it's some leg dragger moving slowly down the road like an extra out of a "Walking Dead" setting.. But despite all that ... I still have been suddenly getting bombed by cold-call texting and phone direct to messages... These are real-estate "venture capitalists" - I call them that, but I suspect they're just home flippers. - haven't returned any calls or engaged in exactly why they want to purchase my home for cash... but, I can only assume, whatever I bought this house for 10 years ago, they want to make it 'worth my while' yet ... still think they can make a profit flipping?? wow - It turns out that the "ring of economic growth and value" concomitantly expands from cities ..out, in North American economics. This process takes multiple generations, but as the slow moving 'fortune tsunamis' overtakes the erstwhile hapless denizen's settings, their virtuosity has no defense by the raw fearsome power of money lust that comes with that wave. That's all it is.. .a speculate greed wave. In the 1980s...it was just entering the Acton, east Chelmsford ...Wayland towns.... Now, it's expanded to and beyond Littleton and Boxborough across 495 ...and areas of Rt 9 between Framingham and Worcester up to Ayer and Tyngsborough ( although Tyngs. is hybrid Rt 3) are exploding in property value. That value is an outside -< in appreciation, though. You're sitting in a minnie-cape-sized drafty meth lab relic home in Ayer's mise-science of Military -base ( Devens ) abandoned economic dearth, in a prideful ( otherwise ) tedious blue-collar heritage, when suddenly your home is made double or triple the worth by pure random assignment. Winning the lottery in a sense I suppose. And the gentrification that comes with it .. has been transforming the setting of Ayer to be a sort of anthropological dichotomy of culture perspectives, political values, ... and education varieties. The wave effects communities differently - this has a bit a micro urban out in in the boonies heritage being sort of forced to progressive thinking. Oh, I'm sure in 20 years the transition will be complete and this will be another blue bird utopia petri-dish to grow the future's "affluenza" narcissists. I would take the offer... but I have no meaning for life any longer ...so I may as well rot here

And genetics ... In 'conceptual physiology' ( I just am less sure how these terms situate in sciencey aspects of the field ...) there are three baser body modes: Ectomorphic; Mesomorphic; Endomorphic. Ecto's tend to be thin/skinny/... 'wiry' as it were ... Think lean, type-a personality... "asshole" may leap to mind and in ( sad to admit ..) more times than not is an apropos description, if not in whole, something about 'em just worries people around them in a creepy vibe. They tend to get the job done and be goal oriented, tho..so there's that. But are often loathsomely lonely if not self-loathing and suicidal, - or, interestingly enough... giant woman tend to automatically end up with stalking crushes over them. Weird - Meso's tend to muscular ... balled muscle groups.. Pick up pencil, the next day ..the bicep is visible swollen with a vein snaking up its sinews. Interestingly... they can be glib and charming, and concomitantly with those attributable 'red flags' .. if ya get in there its pretty clear sociopathy runs strong in that genome like the force does in the Skywalkers - ...still, hats off? Even if one is not in the gym ballooning for their built in western cultural advantage, woman ( and some men ? ) still kinda sorta sense the magazine layout exist in there somewhere and that usually enough to the girl watching 'em to sit on their face anyway. Endo's .. unfortunately are not ever billed nearly as highly attractive as these "gems" above, in the modernity of culture/ .. western 'sexiness'. Think button nose .. round faced, 'animated Cabbage-Patch Dolls', wobbling around as stereotyped targets framed up in a "People Of Wallmart" book of comedy shade. But you know..life's not so bad - because this genetic signal has survived since primal era humanity, so somehow they're still getting laid. ... even if it takes a bit of imagination to figure out 'how' the fu that logistically can take place... Every person carries some amount of each in their total make-up. It's like each is ecto, meso, and endo gets a number value 1 to 10. Such that if you are 2 in ecto and a 4 in meso, ... you have to be 4 in endo, to sum up to 10. You could be a 1,1,9... or a 3,3,6... I guess you couldn't be a 8,2,0 tho... That's how the metrical analysis of physiological body-types is done I suppose. It's sort of like Horoscope phenomenon in that sense... If one is reading from the Zodiac bible... that 3" thick tomb that describes why no one really ends up with the girl or guy of their dreams, but ends up learning to enjoy the taste of gods shit and resolute to have had a 'good life' anyway ... it seems like you could be any of those signs - it's because you really do carry traits in all. It's just a matter of amount. No one size fits all - ... if you are meso of 6 or 7 ... and small beans in the other two, diet is only part. You simply don't have to work as hard to get your body to look like the monster ego-enraged boner that lurks behind your eyes and a diverging, god- given chiseled smile.

I blew it.... I thought we'd nape this bitch at least through 18z today ... but alas! awoke to the slate sky shits. Clear through 4 am, too, to make sure the radiative cold maxed, and the ceiling capped... to make busting that idea as proficiently as imaginatively possible too... It's like so murdered, that it resurrected the forecast ... just to rekill it! Thing is, hi res satellite does actually show that 6 to 9 hour clear area exists..It's just out over the warm nurturing waters of the outer GOM SW of NS - so I guess some minor face saving in that it was purely timing- otherwise we may has had that at sun up through 18z like originally assess three days ago.