Typhoon Tip

Ends up impressive without it, too.

Well.. anyway.. straight up blend of the GEFs/EPS/GEPs is probably the best way to go for now. Likeable trends on going so we'll see where we go from here.

The funny thing I’ve been noticing with that… The wave length looks too long between San Francisco and Boston. It’s almost like the models are trying to rush this thing to the east… I don’t know if that’s any kind of a sign or anything but that definitely looks like a stressed wave length.

Yeah I was throwing the Euro a bone there some. It’s just that of the two I find the GFS a little more egregious because it was transfixed in its error. I mean at least the euro wended its way to the truth – but I distinguish things like that.

It’s a good thing this is all happening outside and not inside of D4 in the models huh lol

Hey man.. I defended the Euro on that last snow event that did well up your way... The GFS was too far S and cold - from what I assessed - with adamant stubbornness too. heh

Mmm it's an artifact of being captured I would think. This is a integrating event in some of these recent trends... The surface evolution - as we all know ... - ends up hesitating if not stalling, if not performing loops while doing so. But these inidividual members may or may not be fully resolving that ... "partial" in this sense would lend to a NW motion, just not as likely double-back

I would include the 2018 March Nor'easter ( the first of the bunch ...) that year.

Too bad this isn't a week later for disaster enthusiasts... There's a relatively rare Perigean spring tide scheduled for the Equinox this year, and having a system like a blend of the Euro/ICON/KR models ... would pretty much redistrict the entire shore civility from Cape May NJ all the way up to PWM Maine... (whether said civility wants it or not )

The -NAO and general blocking is fading while retrograding west...That was always part of the deal.. But it needs(ed) to time right with the other moving parts in total hemisphere. These storms seem all powerful when they're under way, but they have narrow bandwidths with leading parametrics...etc. Anyway... too much on Saturday and too little next week ... nuances that need to be overcome.

I see that kind of head scratch all the time in general graphics ... I always just sort of assumed it's a resolution issue. As far as the UKMET, I don't really use those products - pretty much ever ... - as their stinginess to allow general access when the fact of the matter is, all over modeling tech is competitive if not superior in some aspects, puts me off on them. Still, that strikes me as one graphic system "estimating" based on a coarser resolution, whereas the other being finer meshed ...etc etc.

it's a red flag ...always has been with that model system and handling these west atlantic scenarios

It was 64.6 degrees as 1:32 pm on March 28th up on the Wx Lab monitor at UML, 1997 3 days later, there was a 18" of blue glory ...with 30" across Metro west of Boston

trending toward sooner amplitude - im sure you can see that just sayn'

Meeting captive at work but that ICON solution at 500 mb argues for a capture/stall/pummel scenario for somewhere

Oh I know really i’m not that sensitive lol. But this I think was a good course work in a sense of recognition … if get into the Saturday thing it confuses that intention? We can repurpose too if we must. Saturdays thing may also be more of a threat for New Jersey New York City area but I’m sure we have shared interest people.

EPS ends up here though... That's D7 with an attempt at digging under L.I. ... and this is a defined deepening trend spanning several cycles as of 00z. In other words it may yet dig another 2 deg latitude. This is very close to being April 97 -like (not claiming analog - just at a glance).

I would prefer starting a new thread for that altogether... This wasn't intended to storm-specific effort - if folks need to allow this one to scroll that's fine. It seems to have made the points that it was intended for.

It actually was more aggressive ... but latter timing. The 12z blend is 998-ish... this 00z was < 994 but some 12 hours later. The blend also hints at a capture scenario ... you can sense that in the loop as a low hesitation after attempting a dove tail motion toward a more N direciton leading - Just some details I noticed... It's a higher implication totality

all synoptic metrics included I consider that run a blue bomb

I get the spectrum of emotions... But this thread's coverage was intended for a course work in the potential and pattern recognition, and it was stated in bold, raised font that this was no declaration for a major storm. Rather, to raise the awareness as to the former. Since then, these two systems have emerged. This thread itself ...not sure it should be deemed as a failure. The failure is allowing one's assumption of satisfaction to overwhelm - Part of the problem is... pattern recognition is a bit of an art ... one that unfortunately doesn't actually pin point people's pleasures. Haha.. That'd be a neat trick. This is/was and will be an eastern N/A middle latitude risk assessment - within which we unfortunately roll the dice. Now... it is certainly climatologically true to say that those dice rolls tend to hit from the M/A to the B.M. but ... frankly, that probably why the EPS and GEFs spent time suggesting Saturday would be just like the EPS looks now, for next Tuesday. and on and so on

You really want to push that ahead another 12 to 18 hours.. That's an exceptional signal for this range ... for a multitude of implications that the above (only thru 1 am on Tuesday) don't include. Such as the cinema demos western spread of very deep members. The depth at by latter Tuesday. Only slow motion once that is achieved as an east drifter ... these are suggestive of some sort of collation with the deep layer vortex/capture scenario because that performance suggests there is a significant number of members that stall while fusion takes is takes place. So... then looking the basic 850mb and 2-meter temperature metrics ...they are sufficiently cold enough in a marginal - space that there's higher than climate probability for a large winter p-type impact and on and so on - mind you ... in deference to this 00z EPS

Truth be told … I just get aggravated by the imbyism. I’m seeing two storms as being likely to be caused by this descent into an active pattern. One seems more apt to affect SNE … doesn’t mean this thread, or anyone’s contribution within it, failed. In fact quite the opposite. Im not sure I trust the NAM for amplitude at this range. But the blend may bring accumulating snow to the upper MA for sat. I also maintain only cautious optimism for next week, pending a little more continuity then I’ve seen so far

It’s not fact and you’re making shit up to make your point I can get the charts and prove it to you if you want no actually I’m not gonna do that I’m fucking had it with you people

Truth is large number of you really can’t be held mentally responsible because you are mentally unstable … how fortunate the Internet was invented so you can hide from reality in here and other social media platforms I’m sure