Typhoon Tip

nah, that'll just be light mosquito rain...

You get nothing in CT and like it actually...

That's a big heat, heat wave on these recent gfs runs. This 12z appears the warmest yet in the synoptic scaffold. Near flawless arrival direction, transporting a SW released air mass ... if anything you gotta go above MEX, and definitely go above the 2-meter graphic versions. Seeing as the latter is already in the 96 ... 97 range at max impact, makes doing so a little bit of a challenge ...agreed. I mean I'm not willing to ever call 103's from this range - but cross that bridge. The indexes are also heavily in support of eastern mid latitude continent positive departures. The period between now and the 30th has really been signaled for well over 2 weeks. I've been chirping about it here and there. I recall frustrating a tad because the indices were flagging, but the operational runs were lagging - like entirely ... As far as I can tell, it appears the operational runs waited, and the ensemble means were just too early, but now the two are coming into tandem... 20th - 26th ( negotiable ) may be what seems to have become a canonical event: the summer entry heat-wave ....before settling back into maintenance H We'll see. I'm just a "little" bit concerned about the "synergistic heat bomb" effect ... We'll have to watch for that. Sending 20+C 850s over the top ... where it's been dry in Canada ( see wildfires ..), under the solstice sun... these types of combinatory metrics, it gets a bit dicey when we consider the heat bomb effect going on globally.

Seems if projections work according to plan ( heh ) the month is destined to average close to normal? Right now the major climate sites ( which are entirely obtuse using Providence, Boston and Worcester because of those locations are less rationally representative of civility ... different subject) suggest the region runs -1 to -3 below normal. Almost seems it should be lower than that... But the hemisphere/ super synoptic heads in favor of heat delivery. This week as the doorway period has been in play for like 3 weeks of extended techniques...

interesting. it was 68 here at noon. It's burst to 80 ...

Ha ...maybe this will be the first documented "Atlantic El Nino"

The other aspect ... that closed low was never more than 576 in scalar modeled depth. Relative to the surrounding medium, it was always a bit dubious how much the models were were using that shallow mechanics to cause all that shit tubing out of the east anyway. GGEM trended a little too fwiw -

Ha - more like, AWATNO ... As We Advanced Weather True Or Not

Yeah, I was just going to comment on that ... This can sneak up and bite - these "synergistic heat phenomenon" ... A pattern change has been pretty evident for many, many runs now, one that would at minimum offer more seasonal low temperatures and increasing WB temps... It's always a bit of mystery when nearing a wholesale design change, whether we're heading into amp town or how far.

It's more amusing than anything - not that you think anything more. But forgetting the outlook distance ... A 986 mb rapidly filling core passing over 55 F colder than normal shelf waters is probably barely above a breezy day ... lol Gotta love the GFS fantasies

It's their typical m.o. with "..environmental conditions are conducive," which can encapsulate a lot .. But I wonder if this emerging Cape Verdi TS and invest trigger pull might be related to the marine heat wave that's occurring over the eastern Atlantic. ...soaring to some +4 C over a gargantuan area, too.. interesting. CV season on June 15 is pretty darn early

But I also wanna say...there's some extraordinary heat signals S of 35 toward the SW and Texas in the extended... Once we shed the folding b.s. that seems to be the new spring climate ... we'll see.

Case in point ... Will's grouse has merit. This has been a recurring spring into early summer theme now, a leitmotif that began roughly 10 or 15 years ago, where we get this over-the-top "folding pattern" - what does that means? just look at the guidance means. We keep setting the table for ridging and heat, but what happens is it surges across S Canada, and below ~ 700 mb level, there's easterlies into the M/A. This pools cooler 850 mb air from D.C. to Boston for one, but it also delivers the heat of summer into Ontario and Quebec... We may see CAR with hotter afternoon readings than NYC if the models have their way... They're constructing the "fold" ... again. But there's moving deltas. The aspect above is observably true year to year,... but, it also gets over amplfied in the guidance, too. So they pick up on it and run too far. This recent trough series ( the one last weekend, yesterday and this follow-up slated to butt poke Saturday) were all modeled to be under L.I. from distance, and instead they are turning out "a little" shallower and taking a more neutral latitude transit over the region. I think this latter subtle correction tendency might make next week perhaps a little less obviously up-side-down ...

wow, more smoke

Yeah, and unfortunately this close in the standard late spring correction of model over pessimism may not work either… It seems when eying from a long way out in time … one can almost count on it. There’s always one last little turd before a pattern change. Do you know what it reminds me of ha ha. It reminds me of that scene where Leslie Nielsen hesitates, looks back over her shoulder, then steps back just to give the panicking passenger one last smack in the face in the movie airplane. we should just adopt that formally into synoptic meteorology techniques at an operational recognition. Whenever we’re looking at a pattern change you can say, don’t forget the Leslie Nielsen.

I'd even suggest that it's late ...as in taking time away from the 'the warm season' - More typically, these meanders are akin to April and May. But, there's all kinds of subtle signs of CC in the actual circulation tendencies world over. Seasonal pre and post lapsing ...smearing the transition seasons is one of them, and I wonder if the lateness above might just be one of those easily over looked attribution aspects. Attribution ( as an aside ) I think needs to be expanded as a science/inference effort et al, across a broader spectrum of events. They only go after big dawg heat /cold and storms... But as a Meteorologists transfixed to synoptics weather for so many years, we know better and there's oddities occurring. Of course, that's not carte blanche to blame every cumulus cloud on CC, and some will attempt to do so. The unfortunate reality is, however .. there are some subtler, non-impacting aspects taking place that are not part of the climate the planet is moving away from. To me, this cooler WB and warm stymied entrance ... while in tandem the current graphical trends suggest June ends the warmest ever in global history by a large margin ... may not actually be uncoupled.

Looks like we get another shot at smelling ozone in two days?

It ain’t summer. Thunder’s supposed to settle you back to 70. Not 57. That was f’n annoyingly chilly after nicking 80 not two hrs before

Need higher DPs folks

there's definitely odd nuances in the circulation handling with the GFS' mid level main synoptics scaffolding though. I am noticing that this permanent trough/closer routine it's doing ( regardless of whether there are + or - heights entering the west, nuance #1), it ends up creating a lot of murk weather from the 576 sigma level. We've had 90 F at that height. Yet the GFS using it to score 65F and easterlies like it's a goal to do that. lol Sometimes I bemuse that this weak flow pattern is exposing something the modelers are doing that is less than purely organic in their processing. haha

It’s been doing that. It’s where it won’t allow heights to rise in the east regardless of R-wave signaling/argument transmitted. ends up with this folded over thing.

This situ would be more interesting if there were higher dps

our DP actually mixed out here… It was 62 couple hours ago now it’s 57 with temperatures approaching 80

Yeah excellent location there for viewing central New Jersey’s anvil heads

With the remarkable timing of strata densely packing in from the north east late this afternoon with this back door front then, a near stationary thunderstorm south of FIT throwing up an anvil over the top, it’s been daylight equivalent to 9 o’clock here since 630. That’s how you rub in a back door bangin’. Jesus back to 63