Typhoon Tip

We managed 74 for several hrs while the breeze went nearly calm.

I doubt it will be like this next weekend. Pattern’s more likely to fade into a hybrid Bahama blue /EC parallel circulation type if the ridge really breaks down that fast. This recent trough was likely the last of the cold pool above mild breezes.

this one's been memed around quite a bit... It absolutely detonates the tree into fibers and pretty much ends its life. (f'n tree! huh)

Kinda makes you think about the dangers of any exposure at all to a thunderstorm. I can't tell how many times I've stepped out for a geek moment during thunder ..geesh. Like, ...oh say, just gonna step out on the deck for a second to check out the storm. heh

electrical impulse doesn't always convert to thermal energy - it can "disassociate" matter too. But yeah, it's still a fair question.

It's rare but not completely unheard of ... I'm wondering if the 'marine heat wave' that's presently observed may be playing a role, as I'm sure is in the "hot" discussion. Courtesy of Weather.com ...here are the 200 years of June Atlantic cyclones. Interesting that only recently has this begun to happen.

Meh... pattern appears at minimum to be normal, but there's still likely to be some above normal. Not sure extremeness, though some backing down over the the ideas from 3 days ago, as far end of this week, sure. Not unusual ...seems everything that is ever mapped on any weather chart by any weather model beyond any D5, regardless of season, the model has to take 30 or 40 % of the amplitude back when crossing into the mid range. Been bitching about this for years... just the nature of the technology I suppose. Also, week two looks like there's hints at a Bahama Blue pattern there. The Euro stalls the L/W along or just west of Appalachia beyond D7 and establishes a deep layer DP flow out from east of Florida. GFS has been doing quasi the same. That may trade a "failed" heat wave in the foreground for deep blues next to white tower bee-bee shower in humidity. Might be interesting that models have been toying with an early MDR - I've often wondered why there was never a cane approaching the Bahamas with a Bahama Blue conveyor in place. Or maybe that was 1938 Not sure that's less than summery ...it's just not 94/72 under dusty blue.

Well ya sold me at, "...the internet says it can" haha... No but I've heard of this in the past. Windows mainly ... but the wood edifice component makes me wonder if a stepped leader were in involved with that, too.

72 and mostly sunny here... It was pancaked in about hr or 2 ago but has since opened up quite a bit. I guess if one is up in the mts up N or near CC Bay where the soothing aloe of Labrador's ass vomit death kisses the coast ... sure, it's an unwilling anus day. But it's probably going to improve... maybe later if the gradient orients more NW--> SE ... Btw, whom ever said that, I am not "pushing" for 90s at the end of the week. I never did. For everyone else, I'd pump the breaks on widespread heat anyway. The indexes offer a signficant heat signal, but the operational runs are having a hard time fully committing to it. These recent GFS runs won't allow it to get significantly hot. We should assume at a mere 108 hour out, the performance wouldn't be too crazy bad but who knows - the flow type is nebular and with loss of coherence comes more randomization. You kinda need R-wave structures to get better generalized predictive skill. Anyway, enjoy your usually displaced trade-wind easterlies at high latitudes - a recurring theme in recent springs and early summers going back some 5 to 7 years btw.

90 to 96 this next Thur-Sat into all this soil moisture's gonna make for an extra special kinda pig's ass

Not sure what you're looking at but from what I've seen of the 00z to 12z trends, ...emphasis on "a bit" ... as in not much. I didn't see an appreciable difference frankly. It doesn't look historic, but the synoptic cinema would offer temperatures higher than the 2-meter progs. One thing I've noticed with the 2-meter graphics is they're just about always too cold ...particularly by D5+ But before even getting there, the 12z Euro and GFS are 16 to 20 C Friday and Saturday at BL top margin, doing with low 700 to 300 mb RH integration ( means little/no cloud) and a NW flow coming down slope. Thursday's a wild card. If the model runs change moving forward ... they change. The correction vector is pointed neutral-up given the indexes, though.

Yeah... was just gonna say, ... doesn't seem like the pathway to an exceptional fast warm ENSO arrival -

Man is it dark under this convective band... Hard to believe it's mid day under a solstice time of year. It's equivalent to like 8:45pm dusk. I wonder if this is what it was like 10 days after Chixulub all over the planet

...I thought that was called a queef

Did you move there ? I thought you lived somewhere along 93, N of Boston to NH... It's looking this thing's verifying, but was wrong on placement. Interesting. There's a region of partly to mostly cloud down here SW of roughly Nashua NH, and in this region we're destablizing with splashes of filtered sun ..temps into the low 70s. But it's sparking slow movers. Still, it's not the same as the advertized 2-3" banded QPF bomb the models were layin' down between Springfield Ma and Providence RI just yesterday.

Special props to you ... when you were buckin' for improving skies yesterday it looked like fantasy camp, but even here... we're now 72 with DP feel to the air and some sun getting through. That oughta make Scooter happy that you got one right - lol

Oh yeah I agree. As they say in social dynamics, 'politics is perception' similarly ... timing is everything in how we manifest our perceptions. It's just funny how the relationship between "existential climate" vs empirical climate seldom reconcile. haha. If these closed troughs happened late Wed through early Fridays and not coincided with every f'ing weekend, and we were back to 80 today, instead of doing that between today and Monday or whatever it takes to move this pos along, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Or, 'what a June' has the other connotation -

I just looked at Burlington NWS' climate maze ... (assholes) web interface and finally found the cumulative June ... looks like y'allz runnin' about -0.6 and not terribly outside normal for rainfall so far. So, yeah ... 'what a June' - as in, nothing inspirational and within reasonable climate norms, is the new horror. HAHA

Yeah... as the day's aging on, it seems there's "partial bust" with this. I mean, it's not opting toward a nice day for us back E per se ha, it may be prove drier

Ok ... Sunday was the day that rolled eyes and stopped me from looking any further. It's my bad attitude about these 2-meter graphics out in time. LOL For one, the Euro's 2-meter does tend to be too low in the summer anyway. They all do. It's probably an avoidable error out in time, though. As the model's projection gets longer, it's collecting stuff from ... "fractal inclusion" that interferes with potential but won't likely really exist. so the products tend to dim. The orbital synoptics look like a good ole fashion barn burner over the top job. Which can f-up from this range anyway but assuming - The mixing signal is there on Sunday, yet it limits to 80s thing. Who cares at this range though - right. hahaha. I took look anyway at the other shit and model's pretty 300 and 500 mb loaded with RH so it's likely cloud contaminating the heating ability. That said, I don't see how the 850 mb expands thermally to 20C and still obeying the adiabatic math so that seems dubious. We'll see... But you're right about Saturday. I would argue though that the correction vector is pointed up by a little.

I'm personally taking a blend of the 00z Euro with the 06z GFS for general layout, and sans any details for now. The impetus behind doing so is because they are the best fit for over 2 weeks worth of index continuity, which shows a robust -EPO with a mode change of the PNA dropping some 1.5 total SD, whilst the NAO is going from negative to neutral positive. With the wave lengths/distribution shortened, particularly wrt the -EPO forcing across the downstream continent, in the end the ridge signal through the Ohio Valley and SE Canada should be more successfully realized. That's precisely what the operational runs are finally coming around to seeing. I call this a > 50% latter mid range outlook/confidence, too. Getting into particulars ... yeah, there's room to negotiate based on nuances of timing both 850 mb warm nodes with diurnal cycling... Related to that, the SW heat release model is taking place antecedent to all this, so that kinetic air source being accessible is also a wild card that could send this more into synergistic tendencies ( whereby we over achieve...). To mention cloud distribution and or convection. This ridging won't be historic, and so total suppression of the latter isn't assumed. These sort of details need to be sorted out. But definitely going above normal from ~ Wed but more certainly Thurs - Sunday. The 00z operational Euro would send Friday and Saturday to the mid 90s. It's 2-meter graphics looks retarded through the whole period. It dawns next Saturday with 850's around 16 .. 17C, and ends the day at 20C ... limiting the sfc temperatures to 82 to 84? That 3 degree bounce near the top of the planetary BL during the day, given the total synoptic manifold going on through the period, is more likely happening because the mixing layer has heated and grown that tall... in other words, the adiabats will extend to 20 f-ing C at that altitude. So it should be about 94 to 96. I don't get these products some times...

Today's a head scratcher as far as rain distribution. I'm fighting off the notion that this was over-blown by the guidance. Seeing the 06z NAM putting down 2+" over Boston ... like, AT that exact point and nowhere else, and then knowing the 00z was much more evenly distributed... that random distribution gam really hearkens as the models being physically over sensitive - similar to why April coastals to that. They tend to be over-selling mid range coastals, but when push comes to shove there's isn't enough baroclinic gradients in the low levels - much of the cyclone remains aloft. On the other hand ... this isn't in a hurry to leave, and when/if some of the convective nature of this kicks in over the next 12 hours ... rain balls are likely be moving across radar at the blinding speed of cells reaching out to one another under a microscope ... just unloading.

meh, pretty big continuity break down after ~ Mon/Tue ... not sure I buy this run

Not nearly as much/ no heat on this run next week.

from a spatial perspective ...it's odd to go from a low 80s warm summer day to NE wind 55er deluge like this. weak mechanics too -