Typhoon Tip

And that seems reasonable to you?

Carried out for 2 1/2 to 3 days

Well... I start threats for interesting signals and the prospect of interesting Meteorology - nothing else. I always have. Frankly... since no one in modernity really advocates for others in this day and age, I will say this on my own behalf, I think my record over the years is clad. What did I put in bold at the beginning of this thread, "A major event is not a declarative here; however, we are in a highly prone scenario between the 10th and 15th of the month. The idea for this is an early thread for general awareness" I'm not sure how that warrants reproach and bad rep but ... this is often like the rabble below the balcony of an old English courtyard ...packed with throngs of "super enlightened" thinkers ...

So this thread will make actually getting a storm out of the 'critical period' to happen - hey...whatever works. I think now would be a great time for Saturday to come back and end up being that event. I would only caution that back on the 3rd, the EPS mean looked virtually the same as what you are seeing now for this 2nd possibility we've been tracking for Tuesday, for this Saturday. Not sure I see a compelling reason at this time why Tues should be stirring more optimism or confidence. Both Saturday, and that latter one are within a particularly suggestive telecon indication as we've outlined already. That should offer some confidence above climatology. It may also be helpful to Tues if Saturday does not have some kind of transitive effect on wave-spacing. Best way to do that is to keep it weak.

Whaaa lol I really have only started 3 ...maybe 4 threads this whole season. One covered an event that resulted in a N/A historic bomb. The other was the snow storm that just impacted parts of the forum .. .and now this one,. I think the winter its self was cooked from the start. Not many reasons to start threads.

Seems like if you took all the least impacting versions off every model going back 3 or so days, and blended just those ... that blend is exactly what happens.

Guys... the NAM has a consummate NW placement, and amplitude bias, at any range beyond 48 hours.

Yeah ... relative to climate. I mean there is a standard "storm in march" metric... It's probably better to think of it as a PWAT anomaly, now that I think about it

still...that 03/03 EPS mean for the (likely...) failed outlook for Saturday, is not hugely different circumstantially to what this present EPS mean looks like at 180 hours... I get why others are nearing patience with this ... but, the period of interesting is still the 10th through the ides - so in the objective sense. ... tough shit. it either will or will not take advantage in that time range - and all the antecedent consternation and personal d-drip withdrawal angst in the world is not logic or rationale for claiming it won't. Sorry. It just ain't

heh. oh... that's what you get for stumbling by a discussion

QPF means Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ... So, for in the case of that chart, probably there's heavy rain and/or snow associated with that look

I'm not Will and I realize you are not asking me ... but, we don't know anything about the thermal profile in that cinema there, for one. But yeah...otherwise, you have a nice easterly 850mb ( most likely) anomaly. SO, barring warmth wrapping around and the CCB not displaced NW or weirdness... It is at minimum a QPF anomaly regardless of what is actually falling.

Really .. .haha... man, you got some low standards - this was the EPS back on 03/03 for Saturday - just a wee bit more impressive in the flat scalar values. but ... to each his own

Actually ...that was me lol But yeah... It was in the context of needing those heights to not go the other way.

just Folks need to be made aware up front ... we are dealing with spring recovery in the hemisphere as these events try to manifest. don't expect any solution to be blue with room to spare... unless you're just in a lucky spot relative to that particular run's nuances. Otherwise everything is baseline marginal at this range now that we're into the 2nd week of March. Jesus, equinox sun in two weeks. It really does get really hard even prior to then. There's probably a reason why the snow climate has a bit of steep drop off at the ides.

I'm only out to 114 but that pv frag hanging over N. D. waiting to subsume the southern aspects looks tasty heh

admiring the 84 hr ...that may or may not bring goods into SNE but someone in the eastern PA/Jersey area may score in that

I also like that it's widening the gap between it, and the 'possibilities' next week by speeding things up a tad

Not sure it matters... im ean it matters in general that's not what i mean, but in that scenario it looks like that may even get overwhelmed.

It's okay ... you can self-promote. I saw your post haha no but I've been privately musing that we could actually miss both. I'm sure that thoughts crossed a few radars, huh nah.... (lol) It doesn't sit well with me as of this morning - none of it. The original signal was/is real, despite the lack of confidence in any of these mere phantasms we've so far seen manifested in the models. It's annoying... the potential is large, any one of these solutions can't be ignored, but then as time and new model runs go buy ... consummately proves they all should be. ... And yet all the while, the signal is still there and just as impressively coherent. It's hit media circuits! I like that CT guy a few posts ago, because of the concision. Saturday ... or Tuesday. Meanwhile, CNN has a headline on their website talking about the cold anomaly for the U.S. with possible snow in the M/A ... I mean wtf with the utter lack of model performance. Still no difference in confidence on anything. And fact of the matter is, if there was a bigger dawg in this, uuuusually those bigger affairs show up in the guidance and have staying power despite run to run permutation. Not seeing that. These are - maybe ...just saying maybe here - signs for me to really just remain skeptical, despite that overwhelming signal. They don't always produce. We haven't had a lot of signals this winter. The Dec one was pretty big, too. I would say this particular winter has seen an unusually higher number of signal to positive return failures. I guess if you put a pistol to my head ... there will be a lead system, but it will 'de magnify' toward a reality that is a minoring event, with a lolly pot moderate points around a narrower stripe and probably we see milk sun not too far away on the N-E side of a NW-SE movement. It may blow up as it's leaving out over the ocean. Then, later go with the blend of the EPS and GEPs for next week, which means the operational Euro is too far NW. Then maybe one last shot nearing the Equinox and then we're out

Perhaps we could be serviced with a minor to low end moderate impact on the 11th/12th ... that slabs in a crucial cold insert on the backside and the sky stays cloudy in the interim - like between the sisters of Dec 96

At this point ...I'd be willing to dump the first pass at this 10th thru ides period in lieu of that 2nd system... The 00z CFS, the 12z Euro and this 18z GFS show the immense, and probably. ... greater potential actually exists for that 14/15th attempt. Unfortunately for now...we're still spraying bombs By the way, the 18z was 6 to 8 dm shallower with the 500 mb core on the first way, which "might" be a sign of things to come. The overall issue is that this is pattern modeled is Nitro and the handling is very delicate or -

Interesting EPS in coming ... It tends to be rather non-dispersive relative to its flagship version. So ? do we end up with an epic battle between the GEFs and the EPS as to which wave space to focus upon - interesting

guys, ... the 00z CFS ? haha... I mean it's not really a deterministic guidance type. No. But it was all about the 2nd wave

heh..the 00z CFS model was something else with the 2nd wave ( 14th) ...