Typhoon Tip

word!

the 12z NAM was abysmal

Full sun just N of you. Right about the CT border/Pike and above it's mainly sunny. 74 here

At the Nanjiao weather station in southern Beijing, considered a benchmark for temperatures in the capital, the mercury hit 41.1 degrees Celsius (106 degrees Fahrenheit) at 3:19 pm (0719 GMT) on Thursday, the weather service said in a statement also carried by state broadcaster CCTV. The figure is half a degree higher than the station's previous monthly record of 40.6 C taken in June 1961, and second only to the 41.9 C measured in July 1999, according to weather data. "This station has only hit temperatures exceeding 41 C three times since records began," the weather service said, adding that "baking heat will persist in Beijing for the next two days, with temperatures perhaps reaching 38 C to 39 C". Beijing sets at 39.x latitude... NYC sets at 40.x ... so for all intents and purposes they are essentially located at the same solar incidence below any threshold where it matters. Can you imagine 106 F at NYC ? ..that'd be good for 105 at Manchester NH and at least 59 at Logan

I'm willing to suggest this is one of those 'hidden' sort of attributable aspects of you know what. I'm seeing all kinds of subtle idiosyncrasies like this that you describe above. Usually in the behavior the circulation of the hemisphere. R-wave timing to velocity of baseline flow ... it's immensely complex, yet not very obvious. Only someone that spends/spent a lot of time observing these aspects spanning decades ( gee - who's dorky enough to do that) would "sense" these novel nuances as they are recent phenomenon. To the rest of humanity...oblivious. It's hard to prove - and admittedly, still plausible that these oddities happen in 1950 or 1750 or 2050...etc, of course. But the frequency of these oddities is increasing for a reason. I started noticing that we need(ed) more direct inject of cold into our "storm maintenance" behaviors some 10 years ago, and even posted in here several times prior to the 2015 blockbuster - ha! That February shut me up will to talk about it for some time... But last year I noticed what you are mentioning above, myself, and it hearkens back to those observations I was making years before. If we don't get that feed, we don't seem to cash in as often on marginal events. The "flop" direction biases warm in recent years.

What I find personally interesting is that the last 10 years or so worth of winters have been getting increasingly more gutted out ... Someone made the snark post that these winters have been like November for 5 months - most sarcastic humor comes along with an element of truth Yet, while that has been occurring, the spans of time spent in real "appeal" of summers does seem to get shorter ( ...notwithstanding the subjective opinion/judgement of what the really means). Reducing summer length is a tad counter intuitive when we add the word "warming" to the word "global," isn't it. I was talking with other Mets off line ... most have an evolving impression that there is a kind of smearing at the seasonal margins. Springs and autumns are extending in both directions - seasonal lapsing in both directions. It's sort of like if you project that into the future, there is realized lesser and lesser seasonal variance between the nadir of winter and the apex of summers... and more disruption of what we think of defined transition season in between - whence extremes give the allusion to both occurring. Winters become more tepid with lots of wind. Summers tend to observe more of these tumble over patterns forcing closing lows, at other times, this weird tendency for SE wind persistence into the east coast ... Both shunting continental heat sources in lieu of a quasi trade-wind. Then in the autumns, it's almost like we're seeing an emerging new climate signal for the "November snow storm" ( a rubric for all autumn snow and/or snow synoptics whether it actually does snow within, or not) before the tepid temperature in compression flow, wind-regime of winter. Ah yes ...making America great again

don't feel bad... it may help to know that a region 2 X's the size of Texas, which CT is now a part, will not see sun/ or very little today. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ helps to know we're not alone

not convincing though. heh, what is at this range, but that looks pretty randomly generated (artifact) that's just as likely not really going to be there. of course ... I'm sure we're going to have to make up for MDW at some point - I mean if New England gets two majors holidays in a row with utopic weather, there world is definitely doomed

Not sure about all that but okay - I was just kinda surprised to see a 570 thickness, SW wind at Logan, and 22C in the T1 layer at Logan at 18z on Friday in this NAM run when balancing against all the grousing in here haha. I don't even know what the 12z run looked like - haven't bothered. Anyway, even if there's corrupted sun getting through with that combination of metrics ... 81/70 out in Metrowest of Boston wouldn't be out of the question. That's pretty summery at least on that day. Looks to me glancing at the GFS that a diffused warm front nearing 12z Friday morning then smears/loses identity lifting through the area. By mid day we're in summer.

18 z NAM is downright sultry over interior/eastern SNE Friday afternoon... Close to 17C at 850mb with SW wind, in a 570 dm hydrostatic column. Clouds depending how warm it gets, but it is warm and steamy anyway.

This Euro run ...for that matter, the operational blend going back several runs now is not really even a cool temperature profile for us. The hydrostats exceed 570 during diurnal maxes from D2 to D8 ... It's like in principle all we've done is traded the heat wave look in for a "DP heat wave" ... Just won't reflect in the temperature half of the sensible weather. Obviously though we have more trough aloft compared to the modeling from a week ago but you get what I mean... The trough itself is not deeper the 576 heights - it's possible we've been over purchasing the cool cloudy aspect You can see daily destablization explosions on the Euro run every 18z to 00z during that time span. It's probably 77/72 in between 4"/hr rain rate cores.

oh I didn't see you guys brought it up. Yeah I've been noticing that site with those outlier values for awhile.

Actually ... looking around, we're only averaging -2 or so at HFD/ORH. As BOS and PVD, Boston never counts for anything in my mind because of where the station is located/exposed relative to civility ...and PVD's numbers look suspect to me.

The monthly state of the climate publication for June's gonna be interesting ... Presently Earth is being touted as paced for the hottest June ever since humanity become sentient of the scientific method. It's like when the graphic is released, we're going to have to be inside this insidiously dark crater like a comet impact amid a panorama of orange and red in order to make both sides work...

If I were god ... I would shine 100 suns worth of electromagnetic power in a tube having a diameter 300 miles wide, straight down into this strata deck - just to see if it really is impervious

No no.. not the new norm. I just need to stop weather forecasting and then 'normal' shit will resume.

Clearing from the east over eastern regions doesn’t send a particularly warm vibe for the day.

I dunno ... it's 73/60 here with mostly sunny skies at the moment. Little if any noticeable wind. Yet there's this steady diet of grousing being served by y'allz when I came back in. I think there's a tendency here to hide in the virtual realm provided by the internet, ...get obsessed, then get angry that it's not creating a the virtual impression you want. rather than just experiencing reality? Take face off portable access device and/or PC and go outside and enjoy.

Fake heat

Exactly ... and I'm hoping ( in no small part because the dink just bunned me ...) that "western new england" means Tolland for unrelenting light rain in high DPs, while everyone else N/E of there gets the faux Bahama Blues dem two days... Priceless -

Yeah, I was just noticing the GFS does two aspects that leap out that make the weekend not a complete loss. 1 ... the 570 hydrostat flexes toward 18z each day. That only happens if sun got through... 2 ... QPF blossoming between 18z and evening indicates ( going along with that ) convection. I always give a shit day a pass if there's CG and crispy towers to geek over...

Enjoying your Newfoundland summer ? Actually for some of you, based on the tone and content of griping perhaps "No Fun Land" would be more like it. Mixed emotions for me ... I find heat waves fascinating. The operational science in anticipation and tracking, and figuring out if it's 'seasonal heat' versus 'synergistic heat bomb'...etc.. And I guess to be fair, the experience should happen... But at the same time, 74 F is just too perfect to pass up. Choice between the two, I would want to spend an afternoon in 74 before 94. So my feelings are mixed on "missing out" on heat. Not the same in winter, though. It needs to be cold and snow bombs because there's not like a choice that's redeeming, like described above with summers. If it's not active with winter storms in the winter, it's usually 44 vomit brown everywhere.

Dread summer 2000 has a foot in the door ?

agreed... Better for outdoor activities if a Bahama Blue pattern could fully commit. Unfortunately, we've moved the story for the end of the week from a heat wave, to a possible arriving Bahama Blue, now gunk... Assuming we're talking about the end of the week/weekend ...? It may improve late Saturday through ..

Civility needs to be incentivized into using more renewable energy sources, and smoke comes along just in time to reduce a solar's efficacy ... perfect