Typhoon Tip

right, the article I happened by spoke of 'southern' France - hence 'similar' not sure how far n the anomalies are spreading

How about France ... 104 F for days in a heat wave at latitudes similar to ORD-BOS.

It's pretty clear that at least for us here in New England ... SE Canada and the eastern OV for that matter, "summer's back was broken" ( I actually hate that sentiment -) when that front cleared the region back on July 29. Earliest I've ever seen a season try committing to the onset of seasonal change, too. Typically the back gets painful and the season tries to sit down Aug 20 ..give or take. But this was actual break, an entry into what really appeals like we've been in (Autumn + CC)/2 ... something like that, ever since. Anyway, the big over top high with 552 dm hydrostats engulfing the area ... now D6 on the most recent run of the operational GFS, has actually been on the charts for some 8 cycles of consistency. Seems it's real.... That's going to frost in climo cold holes of interior Central and NNE. It won't be pervasive enough to raise headlines, but it'll be 40F at 5am with isolated 35 car top glisteners ... I see the backside woosh and bounce back attempt out there beyond? But I doubt it. This persistency of pattern to carve out the circulation mode over eastern mid latitudes of the continent ( I suspect - ) is more than merely a "pattern" in and of itself and is tied to some other hemispheric/planetary phenomenon. I mean it's a pattern, but because of the latter, it's exceeding the standard 45 and 90 day interval/philosophy on that. It's more changing/going to change at the rate of seasonal migration... digress -

Lol, you nailed it on the first paragraph. But the second paragraph hmm. Last winter was both per my own observation. I saw the gradient go from above normal to more normal, oscillations that seem to last two to three weeks, but biased in favor of more gradient. I’m not refuting - I’m more asking really because I saw a lot of that gradient saturation at times. But yes there were times when less. There are two types of that velocity problem, though… One is direct shear related in terms of fluid mechanics. The other one is related to wave propagation speed. What I saw last mid winter was kind of a relay between progressive wave translation vs -

Most tend to hoot at the notion but the climate change signal is large swing variability with increased short duration cold latter October through November into early Dec ... Then, gradient intense hemisphere with higher tropospheric torque during mid terms lending to more rain/ice. It seems to be taking place despite the antecedent ENSO variance, too. We'll see.

today feels completely normal for Anguish 20th

the persistent 80 ... 90W trough leitmotif this summer does offer some intriguing questions should one of these approach the "key slot" from N of PR to the outer Bahamas. It's not like that recurring theme makes that one factor hard to imagine happening... However, the weak and expanded HC is not the best circumstance. Home grown would be better... obviously. But for MDR puppies, they'll tend to get picked up too early by briefly plumbed troughs or weakness. Beta drift will become dominate track guidance early in life, when the steering levels are weaker ...which then added to the former lowers the total shitty chance scenario. It doesn't have to be coherently observed ... we're talking tendency here. I don't know if the trough is even going to be 80/90W. It's modeled to come back by D5 in some products. The EPS is completely wrongly constructing the hemisphere day 3-10 on the 00z guidance but...there's likely some members farther west with that axis.

There's been a signal via telecon that emerged some 2.5 weeks ago. But where? right - Persistence argues brightly ... not in New England. And frankly, what's emerged since among the operational guidance members, is a compromised(ing) solution between that aspect you've been musing over ( the trough reloading for different reasons imaginable ..heh), and a west biased climo dome. I don't see any reason why said compromise cannot be so... We'll have to see. I'll just reserve one observation ... the ensemble means are more coherent than the operational runs have been, and... offer some suggestion that while the ridge is likely west biased ...the eastern end would still allow under belly heat episodes. I'm not sure the runs overall are not too amplified over the Maritimes, too -

Wow epic morning. 72/57. Brilliant sun so gonna warm up but for now

Obsevationally ...seems these scenarios are emerging already - perhaps their coherency improves in future seasons and years, but already there's 'tendencies' I also have a hypothesis that there is a unique feed-back ( constructive interference) circumstance between western N/A 'heat genesis domain' and your descriptions above. The CC signal is tending to transfix a R-wave structures ... perhaps in no small part due to the processes that you're speculating. That domes the west, then within ...particularly high/favorable surface kinetic generation eventually integrates heights and adds back to the super-synoptic signal. It would nicely explain why modeling was consummately showing extended range ridge eruptions over eastern mid latitudes, only to have them decay moving extended ranges into the mid range ... and it did this - as far as I can tell - every time, since late Spring. It’s as tho the physics don’t or slip emergence of these synergistic results farther out in time - which probably makes sense considering. Here we are, attempting to raise heights again ... we'll see - so this is kind of twofold - I’m talking about both climate change related matter… But also how perhaps is effecting guidance performance over the N/A continent.

Come hell or high snow of a winter across N/A … the ambient hemisphere will be velocity saturated at mid latitudes. bank it-

What does “@typhoon_tip” mean we’re you addressing me ? not sure if that’s an accident of the interface It comes back to A ≠ B ... weather happens (ie, gradient is the difference between A and B ), vs the A = B test state ... nothing happening. “modularity” is the actual event(s) moving the A ≠ B state toward the A = B

mm.. the majority of guidance ( the NAM is just on roids for some reason ) closing off contours with some kind of coastal is ....well, kind of doesn't seem realistic but be that as it may, if that happens... ? nothing but heavy rain bundles

More likely just a heat spell ...magnitude to be determined. Sometimes these signals can be eroded at both ends all the way down to just a two day warm sector. I spoke a bit at length about the global telecon behavior so ...yeeeah, that lends a bit more to it. But I gotta say, I've been noticing a lot more over the past 7 years, times when leading telecon spread/projections leave something to be desired with the realized patterns that resulted, too. Between summer index correlation dimming, and that latter aspect ... have to be conservative for the time being. The signal is there for now, though

man... the NAM 32KM is really going nuts trying to use convective physics to engineer a near bombogen sub synoptic scaled low. fascinating. excruciating nerd factor of 10 on the scaled of dweeblism but fascinating for someone

OH, it's not in dispute. It's a factoid of fascination issue - that we're doing in low temperatures. Which ... indirectly, ( if holds water, pun absolutely intended to irritate muah hahaha) ...is tantamount to really saying we're smashing DP records. Certainly nocturnal clouds play a role, too.

yeah... elaborated about this signal emerging more coherently after maybe the 15th this morning. pretty sure it was one sentenced and then the rest of if was summarily opted out haha

Alright ... I'll bite. Yes there's a burgeoning heat signal between ~ the 17th and ... sometime out there after the 20th. Multi telecon index behavior in the projections are converging. A modest +EPO collapsing toward neutral, which precedes the -PNA mode ... While this is going on, the recent GLAMM trends suggest the mode of that is attempting to go (or go more...) positive. Now ... GLAMM is not a modeled state; this is an extrapolation based upon trend/behavior. This is the time of the year for such a trend to work ...so, we'll see. This latter aspect adds confidence, because that being positive is really like the scalar measure of the subtropical ridged circulation mode. So... although telecon correlations become a little less useful in the summer season, these are super-synoptic forcing signature that are tougher to ignore. (I also love the utter suppression of the MJO as it's trying desperately to emerge out of the RMM in phase 8, yet both hemispheres are sitting on it like a playground bully ... but I'm not sure if that has any meaning to this beyond my taking Schadenfreude in watching the El Nino squirm.. lol) What all that ^ means is that we should see at least a temporary ( how long remains to be seen) relaxation of this weird summer version of a polar jet. It's been unusually coherent, odd season for that behavior... We typically see the hemisphere evolve toward the lower frequency base-state, yet these defined R-waves definitive jets have persistence. It's also interesting that all these insane heat aspects have been observed S of 40 N ( for everywhere in the world except the eastern seaboard of N/A) .. It doesn't hurt that the distantly framed guidance actually show it some, too.

I am suspicious about how those New England departures came to be. I suspect the ballast was in the diurnal lows.

This was mentioned at the recent conference here in Norwood, the SSTs contributing to 2020 November

mmm yeah but, these are touching down and snapping off tree tops and breaking windows here and there. ...tearing siding off boat houses too... they're on the weak side, but I don't know if dual-pol is helping them actually touch down, just the same. But like you said, ... uptick is noted.

I feel like it's been 7 ratters. Roughly since 2015. but yeah, either way. I don't personally consider years that gave a pine sagging snow event in the springs. I think of spring events almost uniquely Man, it's really tough to slip into autumn mode then summarily have that same mode ( save a single cold snap and/or one storm in 5 months...) pretty much define the climate until the following March.

Cape's a new tornado alley ... seems the last 8 years has had a lot of those lowered LCL deals

We may actually make it out of this summer having never escaped this trough pattern. It may have happened in the summer of 2000 … otherwise, I can’t recall. It’s been warm. It’s been cool. Mostly just wet as the only headline.

Oh, I'm sure all these charts will fail and it'll go ahead and finally materialize now that we've caught it in the act. Lol