Typhoon Tip

That statement ( bold ) could be used a rubric for the general society pitfall caused by info-on-tap. It's an even deeper dive into off-topic ... but we really live in an era of paradox. Easy of information lends eventually to indolence ( eventually...), and out the window goes the will to vet, leading to less/no real information actually succeeding transmission --> easy civility ... Evolution leading to its own extinction may be rooted in some sort of mathematics, within which also contains some form of proof that (gee, ya think) that it is just like that everything in the universe: it is constrained by finite existence. Perhaps the X-factor is as much an unknown (how it all goes down), as it is also ironically a certainty.

Not sure about every model that exists ...but as far as what's typically used the Euro/GFS/GGEM ( and NAM 32km has decent skill with convection < 30 hours) products all had QPF resembling convection, abruptly emerging on the charts by 18z and carrying on through 00z, when looking at the guidance from the previous day. Lot of words to say yes... haha. But I'm not sure if it was focused in here or by forecasting efforts et al. There's models, then there's social aspects - sometimes the two are less than married.

The term was coined in recognition of the deep layer circulation, one that draws the air mass and it's quality from the Bahama general region. I suppose that can vary some...whether it's more Gulf of Mexico, or biased NE of Bahama toward Bermuda - but it was always Bahama because that's the predominating/mean source-region. But further op ed/observations ... The description is not one that contains 'smoke' and or haze/bio-mist and/or industrial smogs combinations, etc, associated with 'HHH' weather from the continent. The air quality is cleansed down to just higher DP/WV. The sky is sharply differentiable between tall CU turrets and blue purity. Vestigially if not outright, the soundings at point sites along the EC coastal plain from the Mid Atlantic all the way up might even become like San Juan or Nassau. Yesterday was not quite that, but it was in a quasi state - just based on what I observed leading. It got really close, but was cut off for several hours in the early morning because a weak area of frontalysis/low pressure slipped along LI and cut off the supply. But this latter circumstance was too weak to remove the air mass that had become entrenched from the previous period, which did draw the air mass from deep origin E of Florida. In principle, it's whenever the circulation can identify a deep layer transport/source from the eastern Gulf/Florida/Bahama region, all the way N. Technically it doesn't even parallel the eastern seaboard, because the flow is more S-N and ends up moving from subtropical/tropical regions back over land. But for brevity it's EC parallel flow from the S. Lastly ... this is all in a world according to me stuff. Folks can choose to adopt these phrases if they like...but once the reason/recognition is understood, it's like cataloguing synoptic circumstances for the purpose of brevity - which this post fails...I understand, but I'm just answer the question. SW/"Sonoran" heat release. Bahama Blue. It's just a quick as "Montreal Express" for a particular type of cold, like that which we experience early February just this last winter. These are real identities that have reproducible weather types that can be visualized/associated with them, etc...

Make sure you wipe thoroughly

Can you imagine being N of the border up there in interior eastern QUE ? One sees DPs around 53 or whatever and might think ahhh, but temp might not matter under that extraordinary smoke slab - jesus. I mean to completely obscure from seeing the surface of the Earth through that giant region on vis sat, whence the solstice sun cannot even penetrate, goes in both directions - which means they probably don't even have the dim orb looking up from the ground. The day light's probably dimmed down to apocalypse eeriness.

ho man, good luck standing in an open field at that time of day in this air mass

80/71 already ... should be good for 85 or 86. This seems to match current MET/MAV machine guidance at HFD, matching 850 mb/skew-t diagram for ~16C at 850mb, but the 2-meter would actually push 92. Depends on the usuals ... For now the sun continues unabated (above the S. coastal region) so we'll see. Seems we've lost the Bahama Blue flow for the time being. Hi res vis loop shows that while it persists up to about LI, along and N of that west-east axis there's an established NNW motion. WPC analyzed no boundary, however. This circumstance may break down toward mid day? start actually moving slowly the other way. Or perhaps going toward stationary with pulse thunderstorms. SPC has us in general Anyway, said N motion isn't lowering DPs really. It is a bit drier mid VT/NH but there's little/no low level advection. As the Lakes trough tries to briefly amplify along 80 W give or take later Monday, the deep layer circulation medium again goes S-N into Wednesday. That may set up more BB. Looks like the 4th is intact to a reasonable tolerance - for now. There seems to be a seasonal loss in impulse coverage in the guidance going on after about Thursday this week... carrying us through the holiday. What's interesting is that the 570 hydrostat meanders N and S of us at irregular intervals ...which that is a very warm thickness to assume the EPS blended 2-anomaly will be colder than normal. I've noticed that the ensemble 2-meter anomalies from all three main model systems is consummately too cold though. They got the recent cooler June right in principle (for ex) but they were too extreme. Most places will probably be -1 to -3, as opposed to the -4 to -6... so it's a tedious complain, granted. Right now they are modestly negative week 1, but go modestly positive week 2. Bottom line... looks like a seasonal 4th of July stretch, Saturday thru next Tuesday. NOT like it was 2021

Nah that’s later after the kids are down for the night

Yup ...deep Bahama Blues. It's relatively rare as a phenomenon to get 73.4 DPs with blue toned sky pure enough to challenge a post Canadian snow storm on a mid February afternoon.

Uh ...CNN is - That headline there came 2 hours ago

You wonder what's going on in the think tanks/Pentagon - I was entertaining the notion that Yevgeny might be sort of secretly a Ukrain sympathizer or even switched sides. But my buddy brings up the obviously over-arcing oligarchy role in probably not agreeing with Putin's tact at this point - that's sort of been there all along... forgot about that. But suppose for a second the oligarchy got to the Wagner chief ... this could still be a preamble? testing Moscow's flinch response. That doesn't work either. The problem I'm having with any of this is that the element of surprise has been removed from any future attempt. So I'm curious what the motivation was for "staging" a move on Moscow in the first place - and what changed to draw the Wagner forces to now stand down. What a f'n morass

Kinda interesting... get a load a California at the end of this Euro run. Considering the snow pack in the Sierra and all that water apparently in the valleys

I suspect ASH's DP is too high. Just as FIT's seems too low. More so in the latter suspicion, I've noticed FIT is always last. Today's no different - I realize other Mets disagree, but KEEN, KASH ... everywhere around just finished a morning of saturating air, light rain, and are reporting a sultry 70 DP ... FIT is stuck at 66. I mean they are surrounding by readings that make more sense synoptically. Interesting...

mmm, perhaps a little 'too great'

Holy shitness Bat Man! CNN's headline page banners, "Apparent Insurrection Underway In Russia" uhh... Yeah, I guess it's a specter that's been looming. This Wagner chief, ...railing on as a recent antagonist against his own government was a sort of wake up call. Why CNN also reports that U.S. officials were caught of guard might just be CNN invent-a-click news reporting but we'll see... And we'll see if any of the above is true. But wow - historic if so...

Last two runs of the operational GFS backdoors - end thread necessity.

I just ran over to W-bell ... the graphic is what it was.. I didn't look very deep

Oh absolutely ( bold ^) ... That's what drives the return user-ship, and what at times even seems a bit like obsessive wait-on the model cycles. It's really just about the excitement. For all the wrong-way-rub of one infamous Forky poster, he's been spot on in the past when his usual proclivity for zero restraint ( haha ...) uttered, " I think you people care less about the storm and more about the modeling of it " It's really more about perpetuity of the stimulus among us. It's our particular chosen genre for "doom scrolling" We use the weather cinema provided by models, for and no differently than the general dystopian problem in tech cultural societies of the globe, that are in a kind of 'mass-psychotrophic' ... if not addiction, affliction and reliance - one that creates a faux reality about the world. But that's wildly digressing at that point... I mean right - I'm not a PHD sociologist or psychologist or whatever, but when you generate your own hypothesis, based on real observations about the world around you, and then credible, unaffiliated agencies start publishing papers and airing documentaries ( 60 Minutes ... be it "The Social Dilemma" ...etc, etc..), parroting those hypothesis, one tends to believe they are right. And I do - It's not really complicated to prove anyway. If the power goes out and there's no access to the ongoing model cinema, all the yo-yoing joy to disappointment of model-cycle consternation, be it want of heat and DP in the summer, or blizzards and ice storms in the winter, it all evaporates. That's the proof. Sorry - I'm reading Noah Harari's book, "Sapiens: A Brief History Of Humankind" ( a parody title borrowed from Hawking's "A Brief History Of Time," no doubt). So it has me sort of gaslighted and turned onto these facets and particularly enraged right now. hahaha. His book does a brilliant job of using real history to expose how just about everything related to human history and ongoing practice of behavior, is based on illusions of reality.. it's so deliciously dystopian, without even being dystopic in turn of phrase. ho man -

It's still got it but it's been slowly coming down. Instead of 10" over the friction deformation, as of 06z it was down 4" just south of Tolland CT

Really - All 4 majors in the SNE region are running -.8 to -2." for June. We need more water. It's funny when this kind of divorce between sensible/impressionable weather experience, vs the scalar empirical circumstance (reality) happens. It's like losing in multiple dimensions haha

Days are long ... I mean, if it is 'any' sun at all, best bet might be 4- 7pm? We can see on satellite loops that there's a westerly wind burst above the surface down near NYC occurring along the under-belly of this negative ( albeit weak ) tilted trough and associated low pressure/stationary front mangled mess. This feature actually collapsed the warm front east such that it has no chance of coming through here as a warm front like modeled. This whole ordeal hasn't been modeled very well for these idiosyncrasies, which probably makes sense with a nebular entropic piece of shit flow circumstance... anyway, as this thing gets up toward Brian to ruin the afternoon even more than it's already ruined-looking now, that may offer some skylights late in the day for us down here. First in CT obviously... but when we end up in that under belly region. I dunno and/or best timing if so

From a purely Meteorological perspective ... ( which is impossible for any human sentience to compartmentalize, just sayn' -) there is value in the science and math of the thing. No one asked me but sitting in it and saying it's "nice" ? that requires either lying, or ... washing one's self into believing their own narrative (muah haha gaslighting )

ahhh... first post I read this morning. LOL

NAM won't back down on Sunday ... The profile off the FOUS would support about 89 at BDL... probably that warm at ASH/BED up my way, too. MET's 85-87 DPs are all 66-68 but given that we're already 69 and 70 at these sites and Will and Brian think that FIT is spot on some how...I guess we won't expect to be 70 DP on Sunday LOL just kiddin guys. Yeah I don't know... I've been by FIT many times because I live here. It's not nearly enough of a topographic nadir there to create the consummate -4 to -6 that it always carries. But hell ... maybe it just is what it is. This may not be the best time to exempfify, as we're differentiating the DP in association with a shallow warm boundary that probably mixing down unevenly ...blah blah.

I guess it beat the overnight .. .I was impressed at how noticeable it kept getting down here. Meanwhile, WPC is still analyzing the warm/stationary front down around the lat of S NJ.