Typhoon Tip

It’s interesting how local this is to a smaller region of southern New England. I mean it’s completely… Well, not completely, but mostly sunny west of Springfield and Keene, New Hampshire… I mean it might be a pop-up or something around there but it’s a lot more sun then clouds. Meanwhile, Eastern zones there’s some kind of weird thing to kill this summer going on.

Bahamian

The "shape" of the flow might belie the reality there ... at least, if 'further notice' means the next 10 days. The 582 non-hydrostat never gets S of PWM to PIT ( ~ ) line on this 12z GFS operational run, and that's an aspect that's been occurring in general across the recent model runs ( not just the GFS). Despite the appeal of that robust negative anomaly buzz saw cutting its way through 55 N across the continent, that lack of height fall behavior probably ablates CAA from getting appreciably S-E. It may be more than less 'contained' . It does speed up the flow, however .. The negative height anomaly is probably overdone some. D6+ there is a longer term model performance -based safe assumption there. But it's presence as it passes by N is steepening the geostrophic gradient making for unusual mid level velocity anomaly. We don't typically see 70 to 100kt 500 mb jet cores in mid July spanning from Wisconsin to Maine. That aspect alone is rather intriguing...

For those of you that engage in reposting "twits" ... just be advised that because Elon Musk is not rich enough ... tweets are no longer viewable to non-account holders. Since that is the majority of people in the world, it's become immediately all but futile for you to post twit material in here - Despite the dig above ... it's not a loss. Not really. In fact, it's more likely that limiting access repost is akin 'for one's own good' like taking heroin away from an addict. Twit reposting is damaging for a bevy of reasons too broad to get into here... and so it's actually a relative win.

Uh... you read-in too deeply. I'm not personally surprised that signals projected between D7-15's are not verifying. Not once? mmm yeah, that's a little odd. I was responding to you, saying that CPC ... was less than impressed by D8-14, and offering (tongue-in-cheek) that trend for failure makes it harder to imagine otherwise. Part of this is because there is a warm signal ( yet again ...) for that time range. So there's sarcasm as to whether that will actually get realized. By the way folks, there's still a marginal heat wave possibility from D.C. to interior SNE, Wed- Fri. 87-91 with DP type.

Can't say I blame them ... I mean I have no idea at this moment, while typing, what their reasoning is ... but from my perspective, of the number of times an emerging heat signal has come over the distant temporal horizon ( 2nd week) in the total technology framework, has resulted in 0 realization since mid spring. 100% failure rate. Seemingly...for different reasons, too. Eventually, the less than rational convention becomes too tempting to the analysis. LOL It's really beeen rather striking to see a 100% failure rate on that. I'm just sort of tacitly recalling here, but it seems like 5 ... 7 times since the end of April that the technology has proven futile - so the uselessness to persistent attempts has been a growing achievement

It's interesting the low temperatures in that list are lower in the heat wave relative sense... I wonder if that was more common at regional scales. The DPs may not have been very high

I had a Stromboli last week that caused a major eruption, too ...

We also have corn snakes that look black with a irregular white patterns like that, too. Saw one nearly 7' in length crossing the road over the brook. Very menacing looking but ultimately pretty harmless. They can also be brown and white banded, too.

No ... it's because of the sewer piping in

wow... HFD put up a 'fake' 90 on mesowest with a 70 dp

Wined my way to an impressive recovery... Picturesque CU dapples a pure blue hot sun over 82/72. The DP is in fact warmer than the temperature was at noon.

Are those cumulus clouds or the tops of Labradorian icebergs out there ...

Is anyone else going to the SNE weather conference on July 15 ? Canton Mass. 30$ It's a half day ... 8 to noon.

Yeah, it took all morning but WPC finally is analyzing that aspect on the more recent surface chart ...

I wonder if this is doing this all over the planetary mid latitudes or if this is just something endemic to N/A continental summer 2023 - what a surgical strike that is on the welfare of July statistics. LOL

Jesus ... was there a super volcano when no one was looking?

We had 3.1" averaged across multiple home sites within a mile or two of my location, yesterday. Then, we had .75" today, so far, from that batch that came through overnight. So... getting close to 4" in 24 hours does make it interesting if this cold tuck we got going is incapable of keeping the storms from forming ... Partially kidding there, but we are cool-afflicted by this plume that flooded S this morning up my way.

Does it? this tuck up here is acting like a bona fide BD butt pump ... You watch vis imagery loops and think, 'okay now the back edge of at least partial sun'll be here in ...' but it never happens. You look again, and it just creating more clouds inside this cold pool. This is a perniciously chilly air mass, man. It's 63/62 here with mist droplet, and trees and flags with an active NNE breeze indication. It's almost like the fester of cold saturation into central NE yesterday "engineered" a local BD phenomenon. Maybe takes some science fiction to visualize, but it's like given enough time of that putridity in one place, it starts radiating some heat away and instantiates its own density/heat sink air mass that then comes flooding south - surrounding larger synoptic circumstance creates an environment where that can all take place and here we are with a substantial model bust. Days are long ... maybe it's just a 4-6 hour meso-beta scale restoring motion, and then we'll recuperate later? we'll see. But this is not "summer" anything. In fact, ...I gotta be honest. It's getting a little exhaustive defending the season - we may not get a summer this year. I've never seen so many least excuses imaginable materialize, among all dimensional aspects of reality and scale, in order to offset the word "warm" lol. It's kinda of amazing. Meanwhile, these global means/temperature curves are saying that June was the hottest ever since the Cognitive Revolution of humanity some 30,000 years ago.

It's interesting to observe such a robust tuck jet formulate at this time of year. It's drilling 62 DP and chilly ( by summer standard) air into SNE now. You can see it punch in on hi res vis sat loopage

Yup... 2.9" average at home sites within a mile of my location here in Ayer.

Yeah ... you know, I'm wondering if this one of those deals where Gaia was hiding a wet month by deliberately only raining where ever the nimrod technology placement can lie the most about reality. LOL

I don't mind... if the day's gonna be blown, make it worth it. Frankly was puzzled to see negative rain anomalies for June considering it seemed to be raining or within ear-shot of thunder for like 15 straight days but it is what is. I just wouldn't mind putting July out of reach with a ton of pan-dimensional thumping.

I don't know what difference that makes. If one wants to consider 'distribution behavior' the last 8 or so days of the month were all modestly above normal.. between +1 and +3 at ALB/HFD/ORH.

Frankly I'd advise usage of the operational model version with an extra degree of incredulity ... They are yawing dramatically between extremes in temperature. The GFS ( for ex.) has been flipping the upper MW/GL region between 72 with easterlies over a stalled warm front, with occasional rains/convection, vs 104 .. about every 3rd or 4th run. Back and forth... hugely massive diametric swings that make any kind of deterministic reliance non-existent. What is causing the giant gradient in the model(s) ... N vs S side of the ambient summer front is both as intriguing as it is suspect. It's probably that the model(s) are too happy to genesis cloud and rain interference on heating potential - I wonder if the ever growing WV density in an ever warming world, is beginning to show up in the guidance as extremes ... It's not a bad hypothesis if you ask me ( which no one did ..just sayn' ha!) because the 'climate impact models' have been honking big extremes as a consequence of CC - maybe it's just a operational forecasting manifestation. So at the end of the weeks and months ...the averages only show decimal bumps of increase over the long haul, yet we get 3-6 inch rain bombs right next to borderline drought this and that... Or, we get 76 at ORD and 108 at Springfield Ill. No problem... "totally normal" (now?) Anyway, if the summer version of the polar jet ends up moving across the U.P. of Michigan instead of Indianapolis, may mean absurdly large differences between a lower temperature futures, vs more lower wrung auxiliary housing morbidity heat.