Typhoon Tip

Thanks … but it would help street cred if one if these fucking signals would actually delivery an event that’s not getting shirked fir shit reasons. Lol christ I got to say, I’m really still quite surprised that the models cannot see through to a consensus here we’re still jumping centers around… solitting the vortexes into pearled lows … all the while we have such an intensely subsuming northern stream 500 mb closure just perfectly climatological taking a cyclonic parabola underneath Long Island. Major wtf It just strikes me like the models are over souped up and it’s causing them to break, but I don’t know that’s just speculation. As much as I implore, people, do not lower guard because it does have such an immensely huge upside to it, which could catch people off guard… I also admit that something seems off

I'm not guaranteeing "cryopocalypse" I'm just trying to impress people not to lower the upper bounds on this thing - at all! It has the features that have in the past, snuck up and over performed. It's got the genetics for that kind of talent. We'll see how it plays?

The overwhelmingly powerful moving synoptic parts will obliterate the BL warming ... much more likely in a uniform result. Too much tech dive is obfuscating common sense - not just in here but in the general Met community. These subsuming N/stream fusion into diabatic inject S/streamers, become dynamic hammers ( in the maudlin turn of phrase). None of the interpolated snow products ...and ( I feel ) quite a bit of human interpretation, are not getting the big picture here of what this kind of event is capable of becoming. Hopefully the nit picking keeps it upper pedestrian/lower major like that... Heh. Just like no one guessed a tropospheric fold would strafe SE zones with sustained 'cane winds in 2005, or how 128/95 becomes a stranded parking lot on the eve of 1978 Feb 6 ... the upper bounders like to impose "wild card" severity. This one fits that ilk. I'm particularly concerned along a Willimantic CT to Bebford MA where for a time, thick caking/rhyme snow may then freeze while being struck with high winds into that snow loaded infrastructure. Otherwise, I'm not too concerned about the risk for heavy snow as singular metric. I've seen this town cut through 22" snow storm twice and I was able to hit the gym later the same afternoon ... Snow, alone, is not the same beast to civility it was 40 years ago. But, if the visibility is very low and the wind manages to gust in the interior and the temperature is 30 F ... this turns into a different animal. I don't buy the 18z NAM and other waffling as negation. It's roughly half way between the 12z and the oddly barren 00z run ...and is more a reflection of wobbling with the internal physics ( giga noise). It's too possible that a dangerous scenario unfolds to worry about that, as the players are not in question - unlike other events this year. They are pretty well accounted for. The GFS is largely dismissed

Vertically stacking ... temp crashes in the core, not as much because of jet intersection related lift outside the axis of rotation.

straw man ... People saw the 12z Euro and are smug. "see"

Well… Guys and gals we can’t keep upping the ante. At some point this thing is capped. We may edge up, but it’s more likely we’re going to get solutions here on out that are lower just because you’re at the ceiling with more room the other direction.

wait, I don't get the reference ?

d-drip OD ... my god hahahahahaha

#MeToo

I fuckin am about to burst a blood vessel looking at these FOUS grid numbers... I had just finished writing the Urgent update necessary statement for but sent it along. I had mentioned the climatology of bigger retrograde bombs as tending to back farther SW down the EC than is modeled to do so at long leads, ...open the NAM fous and see 3" of liq at Laguardia in pure columnar snow thermodynamics ... zomb!

Stingy imho

I'm way behind y'all ... back along the pages of antiquity - but, the difference between these other struggles and the GFS ( I suspect pretty strongly) is that the GFS doesn't struggle. If given lesser excuse toward a progressivity, including stressing this thing and pulling it apart like the tidal action on comet Shoemaker-Levy the GFS' physics end up in doing so. I've mentioned that I have/had yet to include much GFS weight in this thing and I still am not. This situation - to me - looks really like it is uniquely exposing the GFS flaw/bias toward progressiveness.

It went back to last night’s look

At least a half a month for real

I’m ready for baseball …

Far as I can tell in the 0z Nam solution, there was no southern impulse to phase

Ha … might be worth admission for the dark humor of it. I’ll tell ya … if the bigger profiled ordeal verifies … it’s a bit of a performance stain on all of them - too late … it’s the day after tomorrow in 2023 and we’re getting 200 mile pressure jumps involving a system whose power should be easily located by these tooling standards by now.

Big dawg events have never taken this long to clear through the morass and detect in a consensus … using primitive models. Starting to wonder if the whole Met world is looking at this from the wrong direction … Maybe the models are physically over doing what’s really destined to be a pedestrian reality … Heh, like it takes a biblical pattern to get a commoner solution during a god lost winter.

nah that's after midnight

Oh baby, oh baby!

you never got back to me ( haha ...) see I've been wondering what the domain space of the Reginald Grimsley model is. I was thinking the whole time that this event was/is not having it inside it's observation region and that it may lurch into the game once that happens. I'm wondering if that what's going on here? I'm also wondering if that may account for why the model hasn't been so good in recent years, because we've been plagued by this fast flow shit that's ripping waves from the GOA to NS in like three days flat. That's not really helping any meso model -

Wednesday afternoon ...

oh man... I'd do anything for a nipple low these days -

Not necessarily ... the lack of lower focusing b-clinic field is endemic to all modeling. It's not like it's there, but the globals just can't see it. It's really not there in either case...

The lack of low level barocilinic focus is really more to do with why we are observing run-to-run inconsistency with low placement. If the former were more focused, it would create height falls from upward vertical motion fields over top... focusing the models into a given area more consitently. The 00z runs really showed more of this, with a "new" 500 mb center opening up around the outer/lower Cape region, while the N/stream 'lobe' was still in the process of sliding under LI. These 12z runs seems to have lost that orderly relay comparing it to the 00z suite. Little more background on how it works: The sfc to 800 mb layer needs to have an axis where along it there is some 10C variation in temperature/DP ... compressed to just 10's of mile either side. Usually that "thermal compression" resides in the vicinity of Cape May NJ, to eastern LI ... out toward the Island S of Cape Cod. That is axis has a viscosity differential where amid the cold side, the air density/stability doesn't rise. The opposite is true amid the warm side. Why is that important? As a S/W wind acceleration aloft begins to approaching a given region, it triggers air to start moving toward the axis of the jet max from underneath. We refer to that as "restoring," or in flowing wind. As this in flowing lighter less dense air encounters the denser air along the interface of the axis, it is force upward.. That upward motion lowers the surface pressure beneath. If one is following this... they may already see that a more defined axis would turn the air skyward more proficiently. If that forced rising air has higher DP content, that turns into buoyancy by "latent heat of condensation" ... clouds fanning out explosively on satellite..etc, "baroclinic leafing" behavior... etc. This feeds back in lowering the pressure more... This entire situation lacks that thermal compression wall/gradient along a very well defined axis... It's causing these physics to really fractal place the low out around where ever quantum mechanics happens to choose the 'chimney' of rising air. The mid level jet mechanics are going to induce an upward vertical motion ... but that is missing some mass/buoyancy input from below due to said axis being rather amorphously defined in this particular case. This winter ...now early spring ... it's just been excruciating getting cold in sufficient amounts and it come back to bite this ..really beautiful deep layer evolution right in the ass. I'm just describing what is going on - I'm not saying this event wont' snow by the way. ha