Typhoon Tip

Folks may find it interesting that 90% of the AGW quotient has been absorbed by the oceans ... this according to that despicable colluded bastion of liars known as scientists. You prolly heard of 'em... go by the name-a NASA ... This bag woulda been a whole lot worse by now if it wasn't for that big friendly oceanic heat sink giving humanity second chance after second chance in this unwittingly fervent Fermian explanation - And as the industrial gears of conveniences continue to enable humanity with the relative utopia it provides, it's simply a problem with enabling. That's it. Nothing else really... when we're in this (compared to 100 years ago), "risk" becomes lesser knowable. Who the f born since ... 1940 really is conditioned to understand real existential threat? No...there's no 'projected sense' of what bad decisions are in a realm like that. There's no consequences. There's no lessons learned. No realizations ever made. Not here inside the industrial bubble, where a buffet of alternatives offer salvation from responsibility. People deny because they can. Somewhere along the rants and diatribes of earlier chapters ... I spent time discussing how the consortium of those in higher academia that I socialize with ( PHDs and the like... those happy with their silent research and family) agree. Curing AGW is not a tenable goal. Being forced, however, by suffering and lot of population correction, is. The problem with adaptation in a post- AGW reality is far more so definable as a sociological one. Not technology limitation.

still dealing with a lack of cold in the lower troposphere ... I bias playing out like an unrelenting theme, all year long and now into early spring ... I don't seen that as having changed. we're not even seeing terrible 500 (ml) mb evolutions for the journey, either. but when the troughs clear the Appalachia cordillera, and 'trigger' coastal redevelopment ...all Miller B's are trying to close off new sfc lows really inside warm sectors. It's hard to get ptype situated the way the snow mongers want for one, but for another.... you don't get very strong deepening within the lower troposphere, when cold is modest and the b-c walls are missing --> which then keeps the hyrdostatic heights elevated for the loss of dynamics --> less feed-backs and that's the ball games. What is interesting ( for those not pissed off first ..heh) is that we keep seeing this result as a correction from extended and mid range <-- to shorter range. The longer terms synopsis are almost always colder ... whereby the models are correcting milder and/or we are verifying routinely milder than outlooks. these gigs in coming ... kind of reminds me of the Dec twins of '96 ( the 2nd of which was the Cantore thundersnow)... Those were moderate potency total wave spacers that over-achieved ... and brought something like 15 to 20" across a 36 hour span to the interior. Dec 6-9th that year. Not so much as analog, but just the short duration in a fast -like flow. This time? same pop-pop, however... cold is putrid. Yeah...it's spring so what do we expect and all that... but it's been that same "putrocity" since last autumn. We have a subtle index -related signal through the period. The actuals/dailies of the charts look more interesting, however. It appears the blocking influence is sneaking in between the index domain in where they are positioning geographically... so the PNA is showing a modest rise, and the NAO a modest descent... Yet the whole side of the hemisphere is modeled with an unusually suppressed polar jet. It's like 'hiding' the potential there. A potential that may be realized as cold rain if these same plaguing oddities are integrating into the setups.

Personally, I've had an outstanding winter season for general risk/threat assessment periods. However, the periods ( time spans...) themselves only materialized oddities - most of which in very fair terms were oddly under performing. Pure emotion op ed: Yeah, this was not a good winter. Particularly for the 'model spectator cinema' pastime. As far as snow, I'm sitting at 40" give or take....in an area of interior SNE that tends ~ 1/3 more so over that as a seasonal average. Now ... I don't typically gripe for low snow numbers (myself) ... but if one is really looking to put snow on the Earth? yeeah, this was less than a C-grade imho... Trying for logic in a jilted malaise takes a bit of bravery at times when seeking constructive qualitative remarks ...lol, but when you come up with less than average on any test... that is by definition a f'n failure. Done deal. Ungood winter per that metric alone. But then adding to that just how the cinema in watching 100% ( not exaggeration) of all (lower frequency too) events under perform within a dearth of risk periods. It's like the movie reel is skipping back to the beginning of that washroom scene in Shawshank to a captive audience. Though I am not certain, I don't think it was very good for other winter enthusiast/recreational interests, either. It just seems there was very little redeeming value to this 4 or so months, overall. I can't find much. I'm sure those that hail from NNE may have different perceptions on matters.. but, the eastern OV/MA/ combined with SNE is a much bigger damning space. Incidentally ... the northern Lakes to the N/Plains and N Missouri valley region is under the gun for spring floods. I was reading these regions have 150% ( ave) with greater regions, encased with snow that has a water content that is in the top 10%tile of climatology for snow/hydro ratio. Beyond their flood monitoring efforts... it's an interesting large continental environmental factor for assessing the heat in N/America this summer... at least the first 45 or so days of it...

Agreed ... ceilings may be an issue, however. NAM 700 ~ RH fields are in the 70%, but the morning sat suggests that may be more down CT and below. Can see elevation enhancement in loops... I'm hoping for a few moments with light wind and high equinox sun at 50. We jokingly refer to that as 'nape factor' but it's really (usually) the only redemption path at this time of year, barring 2012 Next Friday still trying to send 850s to over 10C with 560 dm hydrostats clear to central NE ...but I'm sure that won't last.

It's like higher probability than climate for protracting a cold hemisphere deeper into spring, while at the same time that particular model run, at that range, has less chance of verifying than Forest Gump in a Mensa debate. This last thing was a thing of perfection that found a way to f* up for a lot of us. Fascinating really... We couldn't get the models to be consistent within themselves, let alone agreeing ... poor consensus at 12 hour leads? That may be how/why that thing was "historic" right there... This pattern did that? This pattern won't allow any guidance to be right outside of blind luck that far out. It's even worse that standard bun-dom

I've been in ditto mode my last three weekly outlooks ... Until I see that garland look disintegrate, I really don't see us shifting. I mean we'll gain therms by weight of the rapidity of solar return as we cross the equinox and force-feed about a million thermal nuclear warhead's worth of additional energy per week but it's going to be a slow grind given that look

It really is just god-awful out there... pal hints at sun at other times totally overcast, with rafter creaking wind gusts amid a nape caressing 39 F ooh Euro with a long duration snow crusher at the end of the run heh

I thought the first ( back in Dec ) was more eastern limb ? Either way, this recent one was definitely retrograding, while waning. And fact of the matter is, we did have the moving parts in the deep layer mechanics come into line and climate. The N/stream tucked and subsumed a S/stream wave. Too many 20+" totals in the els to prove it. The devil was the BL lacked cold air and a baroclinic wall to provide a low level cyclogenic frame. Having antecedent sounding between BTV and ACK not appreciably differential prior to delivering those goodies... f'ed this thing up 10 ways from next Tuesday. Just not for everyone - that's the tell. T Which frankly... lacking cold is a part of a retrograde NAO that failed. That is perhaps more the head scratch on this recent pass thru. So I guess based on that it doesn't matter. Lol... regardless of east or west or dogs or cats ... neither NAO correlated altogether very well. Boy the plague of lacking cold air. That is really what's been endemic to the whole season - and a circumstance that remained consistent right through both NAO episodes. They were unable to overcome that limitation with an inject. The first of the two back in Dec, yeah...I can see that if indeed it was E biased. There's more of a dice roll with those... But the recent one? Wow what a major butt bang considering it was even proceeded by a -EPO in the process of relaying into a +PNAP.

Hilarious, huh - 'course, we could always go with the GGEM's pancake snow event on that same day -haha

First 70F day of either Met or Julian calendar spring distinctions a week from Friday? The operational GFS switches from a possible cold Miller A to a look world's apart toward the end of next week. For warm and spring enthusiasts, it's really the first appeal we've seen since the record 'fake' warmth a month ago -

Yaayyyyyyyy!!!!!! Summary * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here. ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory ENSO-neutral conditions are observed.* It's f*n over!

No

Ding dong, the witch is dead ... or dying at least, In fact the immensely powerful MJO signal through phase 8, finally having penetrated the "la nina firewall" in doing so... indirectly argues for a substantive decay in the la nina base line circulation mode. At a minimum safe assumption, there's decoupling from it - but it's highly correlative to modeling that had predicted the demise of the Nina heading into this spring... and so it would seem probable that is the case.

Believe me, I share this sentiment with you ... Thankfully ( phew!) ... look at this incredible flip into warmth the GFS is offering up in the extended!

The synoptic cinema looks “phasier” than usual. Streams have a better chance of dynamic interaction in this kind of regime we’re seeing depicted. That 22nd as we know has been popping up … but attention is obviously eclipsed by this thing in the foreground here. It’s happening on the other side of the PNA surge … near enough in time to the max that it’s just as likely the continent is not yet responded to the index falling off because it’ll take time for the Pacific to transmit the signal this far east. Meanwhile the NAO is trying to slip slightly negative. Bottom line it’s not a terrible index scoring to have going on during a pattern with a “phasey” suggestion to it.

Just as an orbital perspective… I can see traits of just about every model rendition I saw over the past week. A little GGEM, a little bit of Euro, a little bit of GFS even a little bit of Nam… I kept seeing something that reminded me of a specific model run from XYZ tool some three or four days ago and what has transpired during the day today it’s like they were all right and they were all wrong, depending on which cycle… If we blended them all, the entire “super ensemble” …I bet it would look just about identical to what actually happened

No power up here in north central Massachusetts now working on 2 1/2 hours…. House getting chilly

Transformer boom lights out in Ayer my part of town anyway.

Sort of ... it will seem that way for a couple hours, and worse where's yet to even do much. I can't imagine the mere 3 hours of moderate snow between 495 and the coast has really amounted to much at 34 ... 35 F. In that range/region this is probably closer to feeling like jip -job. But the now-cast is interesting. There's a broad swath of moderate to heavier snow that extend around the western deformation arc across eastern NY down to NYC-ish... that's west beyond this 'dry hole' in midriff region. Meanwhile, there's a stationary band down near Brockton that looks like it maybe snowing shovel size glump aggregates enough to hear their impacts... This storms lack of cold and gradient along a defined baroclinic axis caused all this irregularity and mal-formed production. We talked about this at length in the run up...it was causing the models to plot lows all over the place... as well blowing this open into this shredding... Anyway, the western arc may come through later on...

Heh ...they do happen from time to ....long ass time... 1978, 1992, 1997 ... etc. But yup, the return rate's probably less than the model portrayal rate - will to guess. I'd also argue that since the era of higher gradient between the subtropic latitudes and the poles ( increased in winters) kicked in a few years back, the faster tendencies overall has limited the likeliness of that kind of behavior. In fact, this is one of the slower solutions we've probably seen in recent years... It's lowered overall impact is mostly related to p.o.s. ass vomit out of winter's bum air mass in place, though... and no source during. It was all going to have to be "manufactured" ... It's why it's up to 34 here, and hearing drips in the middle of the Nor'easter... it's f'n mid March. But we lost something like an inch in rain overnight when the Berk's roof top was glaciating. Too early to go completely post-mortem but just the mid storm impression... or latter storm

It's starting to look like this event's maxed already for much of the region. Sat argues for a 'relative bust' on any stall position E of Logan ... we'll see

I suspect N-central CT has a couple of issue going on... One is the remnant dry slot, which is now slowly filling as the new center is in the process of reorganizing E... But there may also be a bit of shadowing going on.

verified the Warning here... 7.5" 32 presently S/S+ ...VIS definitely down more so than prior hours of this though. 1/3 mi or so

Rad p/type just surged to the coast ... went from between 495 and 128 to Arlington Heights in like 10 minutes of sweep... It happened, interestingly enough, right when my aggregate size when small... I had just got done entering a post about the snow type being large with no particles in the gap... visibility being disproportionately up for S/S+ ... etc, when no sooner...poof.. .now we have uniform smaller sizes and also a wind shift more from ENE to NNE ... so something's up

6" as of 10:30am temp won't budge from 32.5 ...perfectly wrong should this kind of snow just continue on infinitum. Really would trade the entire f'um storm if it means not losing power -seriously. I really don't give a ratz ass about this stuff when my house is 100% electric. Be that as it may ... we are snowing S since 5 am or whatever... with occasional suggestion of S+ (Ayer), but interestingly ...the visibility is never really much below 3/4 to a mile. I think it is because of the wetter nature of the aggregates. They are big, and there's no smaller particles filling the gaps between them as they are fluttering down. It' really rather mesmerizing to stare at for very long. You close your eyes and the illusion of them lingers.. But, those smaller 'gap particle' filling the medium between is what really brings the vis down. So the vis metric cannot really be used to deduce the fall rate. It's not typical vis for S bordering on S+ Just a nerdy tedium ob.