Typhoon Tip

I tried lol. … The immediate pushback was to start a different thread for the Antarctic but I don’t think it’s really an Antarctic or Arctic issue. I think it’s a global issue? So from my perspective, which nobody asked for admitted…, I think we’re all fucking doomed, and we should be monitoring, right now, everywhere! Until such time as it can be proven that we are not doomed Because we’ve cross the threshold where the onus/burden of proof is now pointed in that direction. We have to prove that it’s not the case

I think Sat's trying to evolve half way decent. Friday a boundary limps into a rich theta-e environment so borderline severe perhaps ...but then we get modest height rises immediately overnight ... might edge the next day better. There may be pop ups ...but that looks like trending toward less inundation

correl reef bleaching and a collapse and quite plausibly ... the surrounding biome.

Nice and dry-ish up my way. fwiw, Logan has a DP barely 61

I don't know if it will. Guessin' no - Something I've noticed now spanning over 10 years of total season-to-season behavioral trends (emphasized because readers for some reason skip 'trend' in lieu of aggravated absolutes...) Winters and summers are getting neutered, while springs and autumns have increased variance. It's sort of blurring the distinction - N-E of an approximately IA-NJ this is more true. Winters more and more are sheared open mid level gradient/velocity saturated. Patterns don't stay in position .. they modulate in shorter durations with wild R-wave repositioning, triggering larger temperature extremes imposing bigger thaws that for one ... don't kill ticks. haha. Summers are being dimmed for heat. I keep seeing this, every year, this "shunting pattern" because the gradient continues to organize into a more definitive summer/polar jet, which then favors the western ridge - won't let us evolve a big dawgs over the eastern continent ( as much) You can see this coherently sometimes on the weather charts too... Just look at the 00z Euro around 228 hours... There's a whopper heat dome with a fantastic R-wave -lengthed over arcing polar jet. What also makes these characterizations argument prone ... springs have been hot, and autumns have featured freak cold inserts that bring synoptic snow threats in Octobers. These do not lend to people's acceptance... Anyway, that's getting into the other thing.

actually ...I was talking about the 'thickness' - ... but, I was also looking at the NAM's 06z FOUS... It has 567 at 12z but over 570 by 18z .. Either way

weird things going on... Hydrostatic heights are 570+ yet the temperature's acting like it's mid November sloped sun and can't rise .

Maybe MAV/MEX? ... they both indicate modest rises during the day. Don't know - dr their reasoning My thinking is this isn't a true CAA sourced air mass. It seems it was manufactured by the circulation folding when the mid/U/A closing happened later yesterday. I may be wrong, but this appears like it's more a pool than an conveyor

NE U.S. lives a charmed existence when it comes to heat ...

Wondering where this lower DP air source (synoptically) really came from. It seems it was manufactured by entrainment when that mid level center formulated over upstate NY late yesterday ... interesting.

Can you imagine if it freak rained another foot in 6 hours and then a landslide at the low end of that valley slid a 1/4 mile thick slab of earthen dam in the exit elevation?

Very lucky this end of Rt 2 down here. Very unremarkable event. .74" so far... It's raining moderately at the moment but it's not slated to last very long. If these new NAM levels are correct, tomorrow and Wed are the hottest days of the year so far. 572 hydrostats, near full sun, light west wind, and 17.5C at 850 mb... 23 at 925.. 2-meter Ts tickling the testi hairs of 34C out among metrowest towns and non-bucolic settings in general.

I wonder if we may get some brightening soon as that 'dry slot' works up out of CT

We have a brook like that running not more than 100 meters from my house ... In late August after a dry summer - like last year - it has stretches that are stenchy mud and stained rocks with flies buzzing around. But in March 2010 we received 15" of rain that month and it was level with the bridge which is about 10 foot over the creek bed. I've lived in this house/town a lot longer than I ever intended to ... but spanning the 12 years I have, I've seen it only once that high associated with that March flood. A little farther down stream it was over one of the main roads into the center of the town which had to be temporarily shut down. Here's an interesting aspect ... About 9 years ago the town charted some geologist to dig sample wells, and they drilled pipe sized hole through the street out in front of my house, and then down another 90 foot. The effort was a remediation/assessment for Arsenic contamination off Deven's military landfill - now defunct for many years, but a gift that keeps on leachin' ... Anyway, I wondered over and made conversation with one of them as a fellow earth sciences major... She was telling me that they went down 90 feet and the whole distance, all they plumbed out was effluvium - the type of sandy soot you get from floods. That means... every oh ...700 years of something some kind of a bible flood fills this entire area deep enough to deposit a new stratum of sentiment. That's what she said, anyway. I don't think it's that. I suspect that it does that during glacial retreat... where dammed water can create transient lakes...

Call the cops - they’ll respond. Pretty sure there is noise ordinances before 8 am in most towns. It might be 7 … But make it clear

Somewhere between hints at a phase change in the GLAAM, ...seasonal expansion of the HC, which is clearly identifiable in the polar stereographic layout of the geopotential medium, and these indexes flirting with a positive AO/-PNA tandem telecon, exists a potential to balloon a substantive heat ridge over the mid latitude continent latter in the month. Not saying it will happen, but having those three aspects in play is intriguing for heat. But for the time being the operational runs keep placing a SPV N of Superior in the latter mid range, while still hosting 582 dm hgts from ORD-BOS. Fast flow MCC's ? ... The 850 mb thermal layout is +15C while that excessive gradient ( particularly for summer) attempts to anchor down. Not sure I'm buying the depth of SPV behavior in those runs, anyway. Both the Euro and GFS are guilty of over lowering for different reasons, in the D6 -14 range. The Euro tends to "wash" perturbation out of the field at D4+, which results in a single events being free to go bonkers, while the GFS tends to cumulatively aggregate cold hgts on the N side of the ambient westerlies. It's ends up gradient rich in that range much of the time, regardless whatever else is going on...

DPs are an interesting forecasting trickiness for nerds Tue/Wed... Not sure I see where the GFS drying is coming from. This is a weak, albeit negatively tilted mid level beta-synoptic scaled thing working over a PWAT anomaly. There's no real defined CAA/WAA cross-sectional analysis there. Seems it should go from wet to muggy when the sun comes out. I like the Euro DPs more for Wednesday, but it's temperatures seem too low for 900 mb T of 17C and a modest d-slope trajectory. Man ... just a wonderful week for anyone on the spectrum, heh -

88/73 ... this is brutal. To me anyway. man. HI based on DP on the charts gives this as 97

I noticed that, too Not that it matters a whole helluva lot of difference defining the following, but I'm not sure it's WAR exerting as much as an aspect emerging out of changes taking place over the hemisphere/planetary scales. The pattern evolution can cause west Atlantic ridging to formulate and retro and all the happy torrid stuff. But, in this case I'm not sure we're seeing those markers preceding. It's complex but it looks like the models are "allowing" the expansion more because the GLAAM is flipping signs (global atmospheric angular momentum) AAM isn't a forcing mechanism onto itself, it is a measurment - but it's useful because -GLAAM correlates with blocking, and +GLAAM with longitudinal flow structures. This latter lends to advance, N, of the westerlies in the means, and the expansion of STR nodes - typically those that are canonical to summer. WAR is one of those... There are no calculation/products ( that I'm aware) that directly project the AAM based up guidance inputs ( it would be neat if that were done ), but it can be strongly inferred by combinations of atmospheric indices. In this case, the AO is rising with concerted membership in the GEFs, showing minimal spread at D10+ ( which is tough to do in the summer, when the individual members tend to wonder out in time). So you end up with a stable looking index about +.5 SD. Very recently, the MJO is strengthening in RMM around STR correlative phase 5 .. which is also correlated with AO. It's "teleconnector covergence" that spans much bigger than just a local hemisphere, which can produce a WAR or WAR-like ridge response in its own rights. It's not hurting that the PNA is diving and will nadir this week, only to limp a recovery into week 2. In essence, STRs may be expanding everywhere. It is noted that the ECMWF is not as emphatic about these changes, but ... full disclosure, I'm not sure ( personally) that matters as much as it used to.

Yeah bold ^ is the summary. But I think the reasons I mentioned regarding CC and model errors ... It is what is -

It's like we have two moving sets of goal posts in forecasting - both plausibly erring or succeeding independent of one another. #1 The models tend to over produce ... #2 The outcome tends to over-achieve ... Those may sound the same but are entirely different. It's less likely that much will result .. but some smaller insets between NNE and NYC will train and mudslide and fill basements and washout roads. In the case of #1 ... the model(s) does/do go ahead and verify - "tend" does not mean always. In the cast of #2 ... where it rains, it will tend to do so with unexpected local overtop results. There are two aspect in play, sub-dividing this category. One ... CC is absolutely effecting rain rates world over and that is non-controvertible empirical fact. But that comes with increased frequency in "synergistic results" - seeming outperforming the input mertrics. The other aspect is just related to the high DPs in the area, and is more functional.

I wonder if our sun's gonna set at 7pm behind that anvil wall over Albany... still, hot, dimmed early evening.

Definitive DP sink bounded (~) by Boston-Willamantic- ...basically just interior SNE, which makes this region a dry outlier from that image above.

I'm willing to hunch there's a flux anomaly, too ( seasonal )

They may be Lantern Flies ... ? They are an invasive moth-like ( or outright moth) species that made some press for being pervasive in the M/A to as far N as NYC either last summer or the summer before. Here's a photo ... Not saying this is what you got, but the description 'kind of' sounds like this