Typhoon Tip

Sort of an esoteric interest here ... but, I'm curious about the 'create it's one environment' hypothesis with Lee. Seems like a good candidate to test that. Basically, if a hurricane is very intense and large, it starts to create an extended subsidence ring. This influences unto itself, stabilizing its surrounding it quasi protects itself. The system benefits in a couple ways ( in theory) but for this concern... it would tip the motion of the hurricane more W. The way that works is, the ridge to the N is imparting a west --> steering flow. But the beta motion of the hurricane is balanced against that; hence the 'WNW' cyclone motion. But if adding NVA from the subsidence ring to that ridge along the N arc of the total manifold, that introduces an additional west steering. I'm wondering if some of the modeling is even picking up on this... These HAFS-A and HAFS-B guidance ( for ex) are ending up a little ( but perhaps crucially) S coordinates out around 120 hours comparing the Global runs that are not as powerful. These former models are bucking for MDR pressure records. Right? I'm 917 mb ...

It's convection is wobbling around in a poorly organized state of fracturing CDO ... BUT, given the larger picture and preview that's likely to resolve itself. It may just be an artifact of cloud morphology? it kinda seems it has crossed from 12N to nearly 16N, while moving along about that same distance toward the west over the last 36 or so hours - just eyeballing satellite; don't freak out. Using that non-verified aspect, the motion looks more NW to me. Even if that's wrong, those of 'responsible and sympathetic morality' that still want this to skill-saw its way up the eastern seaboard ... you don't really want N motion this early. There's still not much deterministic confidence as to what this will do after passing the 70W, 'unofficial' uh-oh threshold. I still want to see if the models are going to be right with the amount of N motion along the track between 96 and 144 hours. That 2-day span of ridge accuracy to the N of the Lee is important as to where the cyclone will be when it makes its connecting flight N. If it's at the latitude of Tampa, versus Atlanta makes a difference. Beyond that, there's still not a lot of admirable continuity wrt the region between ORD and SE Canada. The NAO is falling ...when has a D7+ ranged NAO been very precisely modeled? It wouldn't take much for that descending index mode to send up just enough height response over NF from this range. If the Euro type trough then plumbs a little more.... These are easy corrections to make. If they don't. They don't. If the do, we have a threat. I wanna say... The +d(PNA) and the -d(NAO) have been timed wonderfully from the get go and still were very much so as of yesterday - coming from the American basis.

Cucumbers this late above 40 N is unheard of

Maybe this will be one of those times where the D9 operational GFS is within 50 miles of pin point precision all the way up. Never seen such continuity at this range, from any model for that matter, when handling a tropical entity that’s crossing into the domain of the westerlies. In fact … we’ve seen an ambrosia of different timing and spacing of features modeled between ORD and NF over the last couple of days; yet despite all those variations the TC itself still runs along that same rail service. Pretty remarkably fixated and uninfluenced by any of it … For that matter, maybe we’ve crossed into the era of D10, 90% accuracy .., ‘magine that. One model run then no need to run a forum. Lol

51 members and 0 west of Boston.

I disagree with the assertion of this being a test of technology for an event still beyond 7 days from now... especially 10.

this air mass won't help the SSTs as much as moving the surface stressing NW toward the coast from out at sea. I'd take an 80/70 SE bahama blue stream line flowing air mass before this if I were after packing warm SSTs into the coastal shelf

LOL, for a lot folk's sanity ... almost better to engage in other hobbies and/or weather focus' ... then be notified whence the time comes that it's happening. By the way, ... while you were gone - Because the journey in this case is NOT its own rewards. haha

It does ... ... which at D7 lead before it becomes critical to sew in the necessities, we're still just picking out fabric and tread. My issue is that the telecon d(spread) is perfect! 7 days of modeling peregrinations to emerge features that are actually favored to be there ... mmm.

I would not trust these deterministic guidance ideas east of 100 W across N/A ...beyond D7... LOL, that's what porked us - not anything actually on the chart. Know what you mean tho. Just thought that was funny.

It's complex but this warm ENSO phase came on buried inside a hemisphere already steeped in summer season ... That means it is not reaching outside --> not forcing ... or less therein. El Ninos that "start" in mid summer" are differently correlated to those that get going earlier. So, lagged effects on the circulation overall are already in place.. That's the typology. The MJO folk over at CPC are stating that the hemisphere is 'increasingly' more El Nino, which means it is in process of coupling .. Coupling better as the season progresses is the natural assumption. (Coupling in this context means that the oceanic-atmospheric thermodynamics are identifiably linked by historical inference on the R-wave spatial orientation ... which is grad level dialogue . You can have times (transiently) when a warm(cool) ENSO underlies an atmosphere that takes on a circulation mode that is uncorrelated. ...etc. ) Anyway, because the warm ENSO's maturing is taking place while buried , it is thus not as well coupled as it may become later in the season. These current peregrinations of tropics are not being effected yet. Which ... just looking at the behavior of shearing and circulation tendencies below ~ 30 N, it is pretty clear that El Nino is not disrupting the Atlantic Basin as of yet - there's lags going on.

By the way... 'super synoptic' is just a phrase I use to mean the non-linear distribution of forcing, often referred to 2ndary..or constructive interference. The pieces are not necessarily 'up stream' in that sense, as the mechanics create a new arena that exists as a result - in which events become favored.

I'm seeing a classic super synoptic scenario unfolding myself and have for days to be brutally honest. One can't really use that as a deterministic guidance metric; the models have to emerge the features. But the correction vectors and 'emergence probabilities' will haunt the models in time, and in time should bring this toward an east coastal risk. These model 'hints' and starts are not just noise. Stopping short of "threat" ... but at some point I don't have a problem and most who know me know that I don't give a f what others think - I call these things things when I call them. I'd watch this thing closely if I lived from the Carolinas to Atlantic Canada with equal plausibility - for now. If I have to knock it down, I'll knock it down. Okay

I'm getting the feeling that Ineedsnow might actually break the single season posting record

I start to wonder if the top 20 or 30% of this warm enso is really the foundation of the elevated planetary state... with the enso on top/elevated starting point - so to speak. sort of a concerted notion with the RONI ideas but not entirely... It's like the flip side of the side coin. The real El Nino is something like the 70th percentile of what these SST are flashing. ha

90/73 here ...

Yeah... per this run, it was precariously missing just enough to max out the heart ache and hand wringing hahaha. I've maintained from the get go that beyond ~ D6 ... that is entering a "predictive event horizon" - based in no small part on continuity issues with guidance between ORD-D.C. and NF triangulum; that is creating a virtual boundary in time and space beyond which there is zero knowing.

every run has different ideas on the spacing and temporal-spacing. ...not sold on any one of them - I'm also suspicious that the GFS may be responsive to too much application of beta mechanics causing the track to curve too soon along that model's cinema.

I can't count any longer how many times I've gaped in awe at a Bahama Blue pattern ...and thought- if only..

It's funny you said this for me, because I was just musing the other day ... pretty much exactly this sentiment. The odds for this sort of thing/tropics working out has gotta be longer than even threading an open wave cyclone in the winter

Don't we typically observe the nadir this week ?

The problem I have with 'repeat time' or 'over due' and the like is that they are wholly an artifact of linear statistics - taking linear averages doesn't apply to reality. Because, pretend for a moment there have been 30 hurricanes on the EC over 300 years, that means you get to have fun and excitement every 10 years or your due? wrong. All that means is, spanning that particularly sample set, if you divide the total years by the number of occurrences you got the number 10. It really doesn't mean anything beyond arithmetic result - the only thing stopping the definition of an arbitrary number is that yeah ... hurricanes have happened on the EC over that 300 years. Nothing else. If we look back, there are 30 or 60 or 20 year intervals where there may have 5 or more. Then spans with less... It really means vastly more significance if we can identify the eras where the 5 or more (or less..) are favored. Then, if you're cruising through one of those periods and missing out, then "maybe" the "due" has more meaning relative to that period which was suggested to have performed better. But that kind of deeper conditional analysis is not happening in here...lol.

You guys commune with your gulf coast and floridian corporate cousins lol. There's an insurance exodus underway. That's the first step imo in 'climate refugee' scenario - so to speak. California's next. Insurance pulls out like a trailer park birth control option signal economic abandonment, ... population follows.

Mmm... not ready to say 'likely' just yet. Step 1, 'key slot' check Step 2, -NAO pulse over the western limb timed accordingly ... not quite checked off but hovering the pen Step 3, trough in the Lakes orienting the flow parallel to the coast ... this part is invisible to the layout until maybe 72 hours from now. 96+ would be better.

The NAO is slipping negative ... I'm a little 'concerned' (for lack of better word) that we may end up a pulsed resistance to an east turn once we near that supposed D7 position - those that have gone on to become problems for the EC to NF, if there is ambition to see those problems take place you have to at least do this much ... ...which that's like step 1. Beyond D7 is what I like to call the 'predictive even horizon' ...There are model solutions that go out that far, but they and the collection of them et al are no better than guess work - there's not real 'sight' in that space-time.