Typhoon Tip

This is a spring 'synoptic warm burst,' as I've been calling it. Not trying to seal credit there or anything silly of the sort, but it is just to point out that it's a new kind of climate phenomenon ( I really believe - ) that's becoming more frequent in the Feb-Mar-Apr seasonality. ...they're basically defined by +20 ( or so...) daily means that really stick out as curvature 'spikes' on the graphical histories. It's fascinating to me... But all these weird 85s in those three month period is an alarming increase return rate compared to any time prior to 1998 and is worth the denote/recognition imho This week...particularly Thurs/Fri is likely to be one of those. And their synoptics are recognizably similar when they occur. Although this one ( interestingly...) is a dimmed 500 mb non-hydrostatic variant, albeit still qualifying overall.

I get the funny sense the only thing holding matters back is the fact that we keep bottoming out at nights. Just looking back at the weather typology ...it's not been like late snows, or show stopping late cold... just a lot of chilly nights. Seems to be the only factor preventing. Other than a one or two overnights over the recent 10 days we've been frosting/freezing temperatures outside of urban areas. 22 to 30 F more oft than not is likely closing cracked buds by night. Forsythia to lilac have been in a kind of suspended bud swell for over a week. Usually if their presenting they've opened by now. Lawns started to green tint a couple of weeks back but also stalled some ... So yeah... the anticipation is that the next several days exceeding 60 and night above 40 should accelerate. Wednesday still looks like a steal back day for VT/NH/ME, tho, as that potent S/W dives out of Quebec and compresses the flow for a day. It's interesting to see the non-hydrostatic heights rising over Ohio/PA while that thing is whisking by ... It's laying in 12 to 18 hour of cold in ME while the larger signal is trying to go the other direction. Makes for a lot of gradient. Could be 78 in NYC and 42 in CAR on Wednesday. In fact, Maine remains bonked on Thursday when SNE gets into the upper 70s fun yet CAR ...46ish? I guess that's not too crazy. No one living above PWM's latitude up there carries on with many delusions about this time of year, but it's certainly indicative of winter's petty reclamation of real-estate for a day. A phenomenon we all risk N-E of the PIT-NYC damned latitudes in spring

ok, right - just as a 'template' circulation mode. sure. It's pretty convoluted out there. Looks like bowling season, perhaps a late attempt at one. I mean, the wave lengths are quite obviously shortened, and the total velocities in the ambience scale are way down. Ending up with cut-off(s) is probably a no brainer. And given our climatological upstate NY rural rape shack captivity with those ... good luck. But hell ... maybe we'll score ( haha)

Scott's right ... (altho not sure about the Nino referencing but that's something else) There is a significant enough statistical/lag correlation following warm bursts for some sort of negative NAO response. Now ... as 'statistic' implies, that does not mean every time. But, it is both statistically true, and also ...makes sense for a couple of super synoptic conceptual reasons. 1 all warm air masses, particularly those with node identity in mid latitudes (meaning physically exerting), such that the end of the week definitely qualifies, have to go some where... On Earth ( ... anyway) that means moving toward higher latitudes. Guess where/what "higher latitudes" means with regard to New England? If your answer contains a facet that sounds like 'the NAO domain space' of rhea hell, you get a gold star. (Oh... the idea there, warm air moving into the NAO domain space does so aloft and triggers a positive height response - ie, blocking) 2 at an even broader conceptual consideration ... the climate is not going to surge by 30 F because of this next week. 99.99% certainty ...barring the birth of a new sun making Earth a captive audience to a double solar powered, circumbinary orbit like Tatooine ... the climate needle is only going to move maybe a decimal or two along the CC trajectory. Which means, come next Saturday, ...with a series of days putting +20s in the till, some how, some way, ...we're paying taxes on those dividends ( particularly in Aprils!) You can feel confident that April is not likely to finish that way... Somethin's likely to correct matters. Yeah, ... there can be extraordinarily rare months. Circa March 2012 for example. But this is probably not that. We've already "wasted" the first 9 days with "unimpressive" +4. LOL. It's topic for another time but there is a leitmotif that began ( I noticed ) about 10 years ago, this phenomenon where despite warm anomalies... the impression/"feel" was a cold loaded span of time - it's weird. Something that's going on, a kind of disconnect, that is being encouraged between sensible weather, vs reality, as a separate fascinating topic for nerds. Anyway, some how some some way ... we are more likely to end up somewhere between 1 and 2 above. If it doesn't happen like the 280 hour 00z GFSies ... it's likely to be offset in the aggregate days of dice rolling.

Know what would be weird…? A spring snow storm raging on with like wind and blowing snow 1982 style. And then the total eclipse of the sun happens right in the middle of it I mean you go from like gray blue cryo- Misty rage already …into just total loss of light. That would be so bizarre.

MEX is approaching 20 pts over climo for the end of the week. That certainly should qualify as a spring 'warm burst' phenomenon. 76 at D5/6/7 is pretty difficult to do prior to the 15th of April from that particular interpolation as those are heavier weighted to climatology the further out in time - which is only 57 to 60. Also ... both the GFS and Euro trying to back off the mid week trough idea. Duck, though... close. Huge gradient between SNE and Maine on these runs.

That was a better GFS run. I little less aggressive mid week with that weird BD nuke S/W...also, stays the warmup through Saturday

Today is so far obnoxiously cold.

yeah...as in, "watch as the CAPE gets shunted SW of ever getting into New England" - sounds like a thrilling expenditure of time...

The warm up next week might be in trouble. GGEM and GFS have a diving intense S/W that would punch a pretty cold hole in that notion for uninterrupted span of days.

The notion of "termination shock" is very interesting. I believe it was Libertybell. He and I were musing months ... if not a couple years at this point, a science fiction novel whose theme would be rooted in that plausibility ... Termination bounce-back phenomenon. Shutting things down too quickly ... you know, alcoholics can die if they attempt to detox too fast - that is an example of termination shock in a single organism. Perhaps as a microcosm it supplies a metaphor for "Gaia". If there compensating forces in play that were happening within the din, and we remove the din, the compensating forces may rise to a state of proxy. And the system may rebound out of control - the pendulum swings the other way.

Don ...did you see the recent papers citing direct evidence of the salinity imbalance around Antarctica ? The findings suggest the slowing of the conveyors is not just a N. Atlantic problem. https://phys.org/news/2023-03-deep-ocean-currents-antarctica-collapse.html The implications range in a broad spectrum of consequence ... from destabilizing climate in an already destabilized climate (heh), to adding to species migration and/or loss.

It's impressive to see +14 to +21 machine/interpolated high temperatures between D5 and 7 (MEX) The synoptics are still fragile looking, however.

Euro's attempting the shorten the warmth next week with a big high idea ... I was hoping we could get that to last into that weekend but this run is got a sloped flow through the Maritimes and trough up there which ends it here

Well ... we had the day last week where we were hung up under an inversion/murk sky until 3:15 here amid the Nashoba Valley area N/E Mass, and guess what... despite only being 40 at 2pm we still burst made 66 by around 5 pm before settling slow down. There is also a gradation in this thing... It'll likely make 74 at BDL and if it only makes 62 at Merrimack NH ( for example or something like that) ...that's still a relative win in warmth. That said, ...it is also a compromise to some degree ( literally ) between the various modeling vs the undeniable aspects of April climo in anus hole continental America

Warmth may be the most fragile synoptic type in modeling ... particularly along and N of 40. But, assuming the present synoptic look works out ... he may be too cool on Tuesday and Wednesday ... I've seen it be close to 60 F over a snow pack in mid February with 850 mb of 0C ... Between April 10 and 15th... +3 to +10 850s with > 80% sun soak while there is a persistent continental transport (wind)? It should be warmer than 63 and 66 ...

Could be a quite a string of days ... Mon - Thurs Days featuring low RH air type, open skies through which rising April sun encourages boundary layer heights to expand into the +10 C 875 mb range. Probably 72 to 82 those daily afternoons. Wind isn't bonkers, either... GGEM was mid 80s but ... in deference to April I'll back burner that thinking.

NAM caved to the warmer look finally. Not sure I buy it … but it did come in way different

that ridge next weeks is oddly deflated looking ... but, yeah ...the GFS appears to be holding down the hydrostatic heights about 12 dm lower than the Euro. the models has a cool bias in that range - not sure if that pertains to that metric as well... but one model looks 80-like, while the other is trying to shirk it down to 73

It's 38 F here... Not sure exactly what the NAM said for you, but the FOUS numbers had that temperature implied where I am and that's happening - ... fwiw

Good battle between the NAM and the Euro ...

Nope... fits climo, too - When I saw the mechanics all going into Canada, it seems abandoning this sludge air mass would happen. The Lakes cutter initiated the BD...then left without scouring it out. man - It seems more likely today through Sunday was a temperature shit show from the beginning.

It's interesting the subtle difference between the two of them. The GFS's progressive bias ( that grows out in time...) is perhaps subtly represented there. It's going to also be interesting to experience the 24 hour turn around - assuming success in that above. Noticing the 12z NAM sort of less enthused as that Euro run in scouring out the scunge-at least by the old school FOUS method

that outta be an easy illustration ...

12z Euro would likely accelerate a lot of green-up aspects next week ... Monday - Thursday all above normal with sun.