Typhoon Tip

Yeah, an AMOC 'break down' ( or redistribution/morphology plausibility ) is less a cold "offset" factorization for the eastern American continent/Maritime of Canada, unfortunately. It's more so for NW Europe. We're still constrained by actual Meteorology of the atmosphere, which by geophysical constraint will always be a W --> E orienting corrections. This is part in parcel ( as an aside ...) to why the over-promotion of the NAO's influence, that precipitated out of the 1990's boon time for index identities ..., ( which still to this day lives on), hasn't been very well supported. The NAO is really an indirect result of wave decay frequencies relaying downstream the Pacific ... Perhaps more accurate just to say, 'whatever is west of its domain'. It's the non-linear residue down stream of the PNA ( to some degree related to the EPO ) - these latter are the real primary loaders for pattern forcing --> precipitation and temperature anomaly distributions across North America. If they are in a particular mode, than a (+) (-) NAO will emerge with some time lag application. This gives the illusion ( perhaps ..) that a given mode of the NAO was driving those biases, particularly over the eastern continental mid latitudes, ... but the NAO was/is actually a parallel result. It has its usefulness as a 'shaky' signal, but it is not a driver - the drive was/is always upstream. In fact, the NAO is far more objectively observed to occur post storm/amplitude changes between Chicago and Washington D.C.. Also, the 'hockey stick' euphemism for describing the recent curve of CC is a global distinction. Obviousness incoming here: pure numerical weighting the entire planetary average would absorb. Conceptually, there is no integrated way the N. Atlantic/AMOC dictates the longer term planetary state. It's a transient consequence over the course of a wholesale destination; it has impact over a much smaller geographical area relative to the whole.

spent some time analyzing this thing this morning ... Of the Can/Eur/USA, I'd trust the GFS the least

No shit. Oh k.... so "HFD" on the climo site is actually BDL ? yeah, I guess - just like Logan represents the temperature for "Boston". got it

It looks like there's some tendency there to evolve a heavier rain event whether Debra holds identity or not ... in fact there's a lot of synoptic argument there for D to get smeared along the ambient summer front like meat ground road kill.

I know what's your getting at and don't disagree at a granular level but there are ways in which -PNA/+NAO becomes a problem from the Great Lakes to the upper mid Atlantic and New E regions. The simplest way to describe that model is an episodic retrograde of a NW-SE Canadian deep layer conveyor, one that sets up around a big eastern Canadian SPV, which becomes a positive NAO derivative. But importantly, that sets stage with presage cold loading, prior to RNA sending impulses E ... Storms are flat wave over-runners. +EPO ... yeah, that's a tougher sell.

The most destructive event in Earth's history to ever occur may turn out to be the advent of human innovation -

It's 15 minutes N at 70 mph, ninny. That's like 16 miles and plenty enough distant to be quantified or qualified apart considering all the nuances that go into validating temperatures

echo this... ... by the way, at the end of all arguments there's this: no point in geological history has there been as an abrupt d(ppm) in C02, and the closest there has been, preceded the greatest extinction event ever, reducing all biota down to bacteria. So yeah.. "I hate to doom say" ... while countless others are oblivious to those facts, yet take the power of rationalizing. It's not denying... Denying requires knowing something first. This is just flat populism jumping on a band wagon none of these fucks or the ballast of all people even know that kind of stuff. Like ...gee, dumping 1.5 billion year's of volatile chemistry stows, back into a reactive atmosphere, in just 300 year's worth of industrialism: taht won't lead us to a similar destination. Let's totally gamble that! Sorry

I think - tho won't put words in his posts - he meant HFD/ORH/PVD/BOS ... those being the "4 major"

Doesn't appear to be so, no. But, all 4 were on average +9 on two consecutive days prior to yesterday. Yesterday ended up around 87 to 89 type maxes, but ( as usual ) because lows are always elevated these days ... the dep is still hefty. in other words, it doesn't matter. we broil. tomorrow looks like it'll be above 90 again after today's odd reprieve, one that looks really more like convective offset cooling and not a synoptic air out.

https://phys.org/news/2024-08-day-tomorrow-climate.html

uh yeeeah, it'd be kind of ironic that an activity whose benefit is in part life longevity led directly to a Darwin Award.

I love how whenever I post anything everyone flees the given thread. 'Recently Browsing' shrinks all the way down to just 3 or 4 members ... probably off taking shits anyway.

There's countless other references to this concern by simple Googling too.. I just think this Debra deal is about as pretty a candidate for winning that beauty pageant as any - again, just based on cursory eval of the surrounding environmental destiny.

All humor and ... collective fetish for humiliating Kevin aside, the table appears setting for an - to me - RI of some sort in about 30+hrs. By then the zygote TD will have moved bodily away from its limiting interaction with the land mass of Cuba, and over the SE Gulf o/Mex. That region host the famed "loop current," a surface to very deep vortex column that contains some of the highest integrated OHC on the planent, above which the sfc to air coupled environment is like levitating over a pan of simmering water. That in and of itself isn't enough but in the case of "Debra" the modeled deep layer mass fields look to me like they're supremely constructed. There's fractals in the area where there is effectively 0 shear, amid a region where if there is any it's well below any threshold that would impede the development of vertically sustaining convective structures. Lot of long words for a system that might become photogenic, and with very low shear and u/a diffluent radial geometry and all the OHE ... doing so at a rather accelerated pace ...heh. I've read a recent paper about RI increased frequency increasing around the world, well... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40605-2 This could become a bomb concern and doing so prior to impacting the NE Gulf. I might be missing something - I am basing it on the coarser data sourcing of the web, and not some super inference machinery down at TPC. But looking at the baser theoretical parameters, I'd be a little more than just bun leery if I owned property anywhere between Pensacola and St Pete.

yes ... sarcasm is vastly too nuanced and complex - I know... lol

Well ... thankfully for you, then, off all possibilities, that's the lowest. There's a much better chance that this will smear out S of here - once the models inevitably correct for amplitude bias in that range, overall. I'd even venture there's a better chance for this thing coming on board and rotting in the TV before getting west of CT.

I remember all the way back to Gloria ... that one, for some reason, you just new when it was some 5 days away that it was coming up here. I don't know how. I mean the modeling tech underneath the newly arriving weather graphic technology was primitive compared to pita flop ( wait 'till QC cores come online), operating in parallel processing at dizzying computational speeds, all having access to much denser initialization data or interpolation methods ... Despite the comparatively HUGE learning disability of that yester-ear, it was coming. I have not sensed anything like that with the tropics since. I have countless times with snow events - just none of those since 2015 lol. In fact, I think we're behind ( statistically ) on 'dramatic event climatology'? I feel like VT's floods are about it ... but that's sort of not SNE, even though we share the same sforum bandwidth. Maybe the Monson tornado... but I sorta don't count town scaled anomalies... I mean real pan dimensional regional concerns... Doesn't even have to be state of em regional juggernaut headlines, but give us a 90 percenter big anything? It's been rather docile.

Still involving scenario though I mean, euro doesn’t even bring that thing up the coast. The longer range hemisphere looks like it wants to try and flip sort of a negative PNAP. Euro was trying to initiate that transition before it can even come north and that traps it down there underneath the evolving WAR

Two sensitivities… One is what you just said …the other one is that thing looks like it’s too robustly developing that close to land. maybe one but as of now I’m having trouble finding an analog

Lost power for over 2 hours … storms were potent enough. It’s always those who were lucky enough to dodge inconvenience that stand up so willing to spear head clarification over event significance. Lol

Just slow movers ... SPF is situated pretty far inland... no evidence of breeze boundary. However, there's subtle heights falls moving over a high heat/elevated DP air mass, and with some oreographic assist over N/CT there's a triggering mechanism there.

93/74 so ... yeah

Looks like we have one of those classic Springfield stationary water boarding events setting up