Typhoon Tip

Anecdotally I was at Jennes Beach at Rye NH this last weekend … which other than the Isle of Shoals offering no significance … is all Labradorian termination waters. We bounced around on boogie boards to 0 discomfort, in ocean waves breaking 72F temperatures. I lived in Rockport MA … back whence the dinosaurs roamed … That eastern tip of Cape Anne sticks out into those same waters like a natural anal thermometer … perpetually sampling the health of the Labrador current. I know from aching balls of those old Augusts (no less) … 72F has to be quite rare.

The MET is some 4-7 F less than the MAV for today thru Friday. Doesn't have heat advisory caliber warmth at BDL/FIT/ASH/BED ... Humid as back of sack, but it's upper 80s. MAV is 90-94 throughout. Even 97 at LGA, back to back days. That's the first 'big heat' numbers I've seen on machine this summer, anywhere in the NE U.S. The pattern cannot seem to shake this +PNAP aspect to the flow orientation. The models seem to struggle for many cycles to finally raise height over SE Canada, but then in a single run ... collapse all at once back to ridge west - trough east ( particularly along and N of 40 deg lat). It takes 0 effort for them to go this other direction. Shunt summer. But honestly ...I've been seeing this a lot in recent years. We get hot, but we do it while there is cyclonically curved flow orientation aloft.. It's really like the trough ingests a warm tongue of air from an expulsion out off the W/SW ... so just a timing thing. This heat these next couple of days is streamed out along a zonal flow... but there's still a vague semblance of an inflection axis in the flow centered on western PA ... So, you know it's fragile as a construct. And no sooner, the models end it with a shot before the shot across the bow air mass like they couldn't wait to do it.. Not breaking summer's back ... but bending over backward. As early as the first week of August ...before the perennial end of the solar maximum ( ~10th) ? I don't think they will succeed as much. They are correct in the trough return, as they have been on multiple other occasions this summer and other years going back. But a separate moving error through all is that they tend to over amplify those when in mid range. Matter of how much or little.

The Michigan 24-hour teleconnector for severe in this type of set up

This was a Pike south thing? Jack shyster up this way... still 75 F

2015/Feb into early March strung some 14 days in a row that were between 15 and 22 for a high temperature around my area of SNE. I distinctly recall ...day after day, yup... look at the dashboard temp and there was again, 19F, for two weeks. And the cold that late winter didn't relent in any hurry... I recall the season opener at Fenway was in the 30s!

https://phys.org/news/2023-07-gloomy-climate-scientists-collapse-atlantic.html

Synergistic events seemed to have been an underestimated phenomenon in the projections made over the decades.

Actually, in this case, you’re both, right… Once people acclimate they act very definitive about their space they’re in and they do it in here. It’s something I’ve actually noticed but I do you know I’m not getting involved in that sense. I don’t really give a shit. But you’re also right tho that he’s tended to move goal posts in the past so that he’s in the self-absolving side. Gee, ya tink so. I think COC is an acronym for chamber of commerce? At least that’s how I remember it… Anyway, I have read people refer Chamber of Commerce weather lately with dpoints in the low 60s - which if you wanna be fair to what that means it’s supposed to be I think 72 over 52 give or take. but then again, you could also go by the philosophy of who the hell cares… If you’re acclimated to pig balls dewpoints, and all the sudden, it’s down to 63 and it feels very comfortable to you then it shouldn’t matter. Jesus Christ, we need lives.,.

The shear we had in the region this last Friday afternoon was impressive. Don't know what the bulk values were, but directional. This summer so far has seen a lot of that....where you have a WSW or SW motion in the higher elevations of CBs leaning over SSE BL flow.

I wonder what the coldest NH readings are along 42 N that morning ...

https://phys.org/news/2023-07-ai-outperforms-traditional-methods-central.html

That's something I've been speculating over recent years, actually - that "asynchronous mimicry" effect. The idea is, because of increased(ing) ambient-geostrophic wind velocity during the winter ( due to lowering boreal heights compressing into HC latitudes ) this has been shifting the frequency into a higher order ... displacing the R-waves in both time(ing) and space. Take the El Ninos of mid last century then subject them to anomalously fast basal velocities... Sounds like big words but it really just means we are observing long wave mechanics resolved in a faster planetary flow. That sets the pattern modes "clicking" into the next gears, which if extreme enough, mimicks a La Nina during El Ninos, and vice versa... Not as a fix predicament, but at times - hence the decoupling periods ...or the River events during La Ninas... Or 2015/February..etc. There's a bit of philosophy involved, too. Like, it doesn't mean "El Nino is failing," per se? It would be more like the climatology of El Nino(Nina) is changed... and unfortunately, for seasonal expectations, that data is still emerging in time. In that sense, there's some art to projecting what these warm and cool ENSOs may mean ( what and where). A challenge that is augmented further because this world is in fact still actually changing.

Aren’t there posters lurking in here from NS ? https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/23/americas/nova-scotia-canada-rain-floods/index.html

It’ll couple but at times the boreal winter hemispheric circulation mode will wonder off … I.e transiently so, but the return/baseline will be Nino/Nino-esque Problem is … the coupling can happen yet the external mode may still be compensating … such that the registries are more modest relative to DNSO strength. We’ve been seeing this latter state spanning both warm and cool ENSOs over the last 10 years.

59 was the low here. Relative to KFIT, the nearest NWS 'official' site and mere 8 miles away as the crow flies, that is close to 1 deg cooler than normal. However, we are in the Nashoba Valley, which typically tanks lower on rad nights ... so, it may in fact be normal for this specific location; but I have no idea what the climate norms are for Ayer Ma at this specific location. So, call it normal lows and a day. The models are waffling on the exact orientation of the westerlies across the eastern continent later this week. The Euro and GGEM's panache leans more zonal - between the persistent W ridge and a recently emerged WAR-like west Atlantic. That's a fragile look ... one the GFS cannot resist. So it gnaws at and ultimately finds the mechanical means to dig into the 'crevice' between, which evacs the heat away before an official wave can be tallied. The 850 mb layout of both the Euro and GGEM for Wed-Fri would easily support a heat wave, but their 2-meter results are capped to the barely 90. Not sure why they are not better mixed ... but, I've also noted in the past that both these sources tend to limit 2-meters unrealistically. The GFS mixes too much - a facet that is hidden because it bullies troughs too quickly... it's like it creates an error to compensate for another error, and ends up better with the 2-meter. Lol. But it does overly mix regardless. That's why it's always 113 F Iowa out in time...blah blah. Anyway, the pattern scaffold does look fragile though. It would be more convincing for a heat wave if the WAR would actually physically retrograde and lift the flow orientation into a ridge arc. Or, have the ridge in the west roll east and do it that way. Without that structure it's harder to parse this fragility out of the known model biases. What a f'n migraine it is getting Earth to set up a heat wave in New England this year. man ... with the heat press/media about the world, it seems we must be the hero compensating cold region.

We'll see what these guidance do this weekend but that heat signal I mentioned last week is materializing rather nicely.. The magnitude of it ... prooobably not extreme? However, any time a consecutive 90+ scenario is envisioned by technology in this present global era ( *when synergistic heat turns an ordinary summer warm outlook into a heat explosion) we should probably bear that in mind. We're missing the real deep layer troposheric circulation mode, though. But it's a tough distinction, therein, because the 588 dm non-hydrostat does end up N of Boston latitude - if you wanna due 95 ...that's like the crude "540 dm for snow" thing ... However, some semblance of cyclonic curved orientation still sags, echoing the recent persistent trough ... It just provides a precarious set up. Heat is the most fragile metric of all weather outlooks to actually get right - one ill time shower takes a day out of the running. It doesn't send a lot of confidence in the stability of the outlook - particularly in New England. We are seeing the 594 dm contour slipping from a WAR-like position, retrograding underneath us. On the fence.

came thru Ayer with penny hail and .5" of rain in 5 min... Definitely was a meso embedded from what I observed. Also, the supercell that erupted near Barre ... if you look that vis loop you can vaguely discern a shock wave propagate away from that tower.. Absolutely stunning VV in the core of that sucker. I don't think the models got the lapse rate right -

Lol. Like, mass extinction is one thing but if it means snowing … we’re off the fossil fuels !

hopefully that back edge to this mid upper level debris band/dying rains is legit and passes off by mid day. otherwise ... no go

hint hint: I've been waiting for/if a WAR circulation mode to kick in... I've seen several individual model cycles attempt to do so over the last three week's worth of operational monitoring, but the continuity has been lacking. For now, the runs are opting instead on another thermal ridge attempt into the Missouri Valley to ORD..., more coherently. As an aside, that "might" send a heat expulsion our way in its own right, but that ridge is too far west ..which can lead to MCC traffic and other perturbations that limit the polarward realization ..D.C. and Philly look hot in the late middle range, either way. Anyway, not intending to get into a forecast discussion ... if the WAR taps into that and we time a SW/Sonoran heat release, it's unclear (in an ominous way) what the nexus of that transport would mean for the heavier population regions here in the east. (WAR refering to canonical West Atlantic Ridge )

I gotta say .. the Global Forecast System ( and I spell it out because it's not really the GFS operational model I'm mentioning here, per se - ) first picked up on the favorable, albeit anomalously early, MDR activity a month ago ... well over a week in advance. It did so again over the last 10 days to two weeks, and now we have Don - which isn't really MDR, but there's also a Verdi Invest mid way. I just think that's worthy of a shout out.

I gotta say .. the Global Forecast System ( and I spell it out because it's not really the GFS operational model I'm mentioning here, per se - ) first picked up on the favorable, albeit anomalously early, MDR activity a month ago ... well over a week in advance. It did so again over the last 10 days to two weeks, and now we have Don - which isn't really MDR, but there's also a Verdi Invest mid way. I just think that's worth a shout out. OH... it would also help if I posted this in the right thread -

Are you aware of the marine heat burst around Florida and the adjacent southwest Atlantic basin? I find it interesting that the onset of this thing seems to have coincided too cutely with the breakdown of the La Niña circulation manifold’s temporal seam with onset warm ENSO. not sure that’s a coincidence. It seems to me we’re getting some “elasticity” at planetary scales right this summer. Remarkable atmospheric ‘bounce backs’, and sea surface temperatures exploding It’s like La Niña suppressed things but released …. now overcompensation the other direction. Supposition. Fascinating

I have a 150 year old maple at the corner of my plat and every autumn I got 6-12” of maple leaves … Ive never raked There are no leaves anywhere In fact, by the end of April the following spring I have no leaves. Now … I still use a gas mower, kwhich I feel something about every time I do. But my neighbor’s lawn is similar in size and she uses a battery powered one. Seems to work really well … even though recharging means we might merely be transferring the carbon footprint … Anyway, just mowing straight thru it a couple three times every spring and they’re gone. Chopped to dust and degrading. Raking is overrated… Leaf cleanup is in fact overrated. But if people have aesthetic hangups, and retentive issues going on with their lawn, I guess it’s some thing of a past time for them.