Typhoon Tip

I'm sure you can find other sites ...But this (below) is Albany/Suny's general web access. I would like to find one that carries all of them... because as the product looks like a grid, it is indeed. And the grid is cut up across sections for everywhere across the U.S. It's fun to geek out and look the FOUS profiles over the SW when they're in one of their historic Death Valley Venus deals... Or go to the N Plains during a magenta cold blast on the models.. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/index.php?d=wx_text That's the 61 block which covers the LGA-ALB-BTV-BOS region. 60 ( I believe...) covers PWM-CON-CAR - ...some place in western Maine. and so on...

I was just looking at the NAM FOUS numbers - it's a powerful tool that tech and graphics reliant modern Gen Z and Millenial Meteorologists don't know how to use ... or pass dynamics exams anymore... ( lol, just kidding) But it has 900 mb temperature of +18C over Logan, with winds out of 230 degrees at 12kts... Standard adiabatic extrapolation supports a 2-meter 26C!! The R2 level has 62% RH indicated so a little shaky on the amount of sun... I'll tell you what though. In addition to the 22kts index finger rule from old school, there was also known overly cloudy tendency in warm sectors where the front moves N earlier in the day. ... That's really the only limitation relative to this model run and cycle depiction. Otherwise ... yeah, the BL can expand a helluva lot more than 72 F if left to its own devices and sun ( These pieces of local climate study candy are why you can't just relocate to say ...some unknown city's climo like San Francisco, look at a few weather charts ...and "get it" very well... ) I'm trying to build a case here to overcome my years of being abused by back door paddling by cold nun real life experience N/E of warm boundaries in SNE....

you know what actually sticks out for me there is the SSW trajectories at 30kts ! that may be the indication I've been looking for to make me - personally - feel more confident in the rare warm-winning scenario the next day. Back in the 1990s ... I recall the AFD's of the era out of Taughton office often spoke of the 22kt index finger rule for between that level and 850, as a parametric lead in necessity for scouring out scunge atmospheres. It was base on empirical data, where iterative averages appeared to key in on that momentum threshold. Anyway, it seems we have a sufficient momentum, from a favorable direction based on that.... Hopefully other guidance join in -

If that rare BD washout scenario succeeds on Thursday ... that could really be a remarkable 24 hour sensible weather whiplash. Not a harmful one ... like in January, going from 57F, S of a weird boundary between the SE ridge and Scooter high, to losing that battle against said Scooter high to the tune of 27F in ZR the next day. I've seen that before. ...digress. But if the wash out succeeds, the GFS' known BL cool bias ... we'd need to correct up 5F at a minimum... particularly if the sky opens up with sun intervals from 11am to 4pm through. 564+ dm hydrostatic heights the BL expands unimpeded. Flags lazily waving around in a bath that smells like summer b.o. ( i.e., humid air, too)... That's what the models are sort of leaning toward, ...again, cannot underscore the rareness of achievement in April, so we bear that in mind. That all said, those Wed numbers ( ironically...) the model might do better with the cool bias built in, because that's fresh polar 'rhea off a heat sinking Labrador cryo anus so you go colder ( unfortunately...). The whole set up going into the next day appears to be an extreme potential. Ha! Normally, we go from 88 to 39 in the bigger corrections... not 36 to 77. Could we go from upper 30s to upper 70s ? It'll be a fun journey for the experimental forecasting angle.

Mmm... right

I realize y'all are only perhaps "tepidly" interested in temperatures, haha... No one asked for my opinion... but, I track spring warmth with the same passionate zeal as I do latter Autumn/early winter snow and cold. It's these first expressions when in the throws of seasonal change that really are a lot of fun and intrigue for me. In spring, this continues on into summer with tracking heat waves and heat extremes. I'm fascinated with 'heat wave' synoptic Meteorology - and there's a growing body of papered sciences around them, wholly needed, as heat wave phenomenon is/has fast becoming both a direct health and safety casualty problem, but also a longer term global security threat.. Anyway, ...you can't (apparently) encourage a girl love you, any more than one could ever succeed in getting those that are passionate about snow in the winter to suddenly develop an equal affinity for summer heat - hahaha. Don't worry, I'm not trying to do that. Just sayn' why-for

Heh... truth be told, I was hoping for a bit more from the models overnight wrt to the mid month paradigm shift. And it's hugely coherent, btw. Still seeing, en masse, the 850mb doing one of those reset retreats ...repositioning the 0C mean through 60N across the Canadian shield, leaving everywhere S of there oscillating between +3C pockets to +15 SW ejected plumes, is quite a bit-a different look than anything we've seen perhaps since last early autumn. That said, this looks more like (Climate Change base-line above normal material+ an above normal pattern)/2, but nothing "synergistically" bigger - yet? It could still happen. But the 00z GFS is trying to limit the ridge expansion - that "might" also be a function of it's progressive bias in that range ... consummately trying to ablate the tops of ridges - it does this.. so I'm not sure we won't see a bigger 500 mb ridge response mid month just yet. That would help limit these boundaries tainting the warm appeal overall. Or not.. the problem with our little nook of the world really is "our" problem. I mean we could have a historic warm mid month spanning eastern continental mid latitudes, and verify this expectation brilliantly ...while we are not invited to that party because we are really sub-synoptic scaled butt boned lol. We are a cold dumpster fire in spring here and it's just cruelly built into our geo-physics, land and air and cold Labrador circumstances.

Word! although... technically not a BD. I mean the front has settles south as a N boundary ..by 00z this evening it's lengthwise down LI ... Then S of there tomorrow morning. In that set up it's more a BD for New Jersey. But who cares, right - either way, ... draw the shades tomorrow

It seems to be trying to lean that way, yeah - but I'm still skeptical for the time being. Like I said, it happens if rarely ... I wanted to give it to today's guidance. I'll feel more comfortable one way or the other when this is 24 hours lead. I mean I realize this is a nerdiliciously tedious discussion topic ... but the GGEM has the frontal vestige draped along the Pike down here at 18 z Thursday. The Euro has it through southern VT/NH (~) at that time... whilst the GFS has it either retreated up the Maine coast or washed out altogether. It would also be in question how much the sky opens up and allows a dose of heating - there's that too. I'll tell ya ...the real warm solution appears to be the NAM's both 00 and 06z solutions, which situate unabated 564 dm hydrostats ... through which there is partly to mostly sunny intervals everywhere E-S of ALB-PWM... That looks like 82 but I didn't get into the parametrics - that model could have that look at sell a high of 62 at KFIT ha.. Just going by the genera of the synopsis. I do find intriguing considering it's finer meshing and "in theory" better boundary layer resolution and all that jazz. Despite modeling still being challenged to [correctly] precisely resolve the lower 1,800 to 2,500 feet of atmosphere, particularly with regard to handlingly the meticulous requirement of retreating warm boundaries in eastern New England ( it's like the last hold out error sink in performance on the face the f'n planet Lol ) I will also admit, I have noticed some improvement in the last 10 years wrt to that head game.

I don’t know if I’d buy that front washing out so fast and bouncing everybody into the warm sector like that. This is April… It seems like people are forgetting, basic climatology of New England. Sometimes it happens it’s just it is the rare thing.

Wow you know it’s neat when you see this in the models. It’s spring sweep week over these next 7-9 days … the other end of which the entire continent and adjacent hemispheric limbs are shifted up in 850 mb thermal layout, with a concurrent heightening of both non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic hgts - a +delta that can be observed in just about every direction… I see this every year in the fall and in the spring. Some critical week where we either gain in the spring or lose in the fall, the resetting of the dial. I believe this next 6 to 10 days is that week for this year spring. doesn’t rule out a bowling ball or something fluky but … even by day 12 on these runs today. Most places south of the border could easily make 65 and probably make runs at mid 70s. I’m seeing a lot of 552 dm 500 mbar thicknesses even north of warm fronts.

Warmer signal mid month is trying to annihilate the previous +PNAP ... The Euro and the GFS trying to evacuate a EC implication at this point.

I'd really like to see that work out but I have my doubts the warm air gets N/E of NYC at anytime this week. For now, anyway ... We'll see where things stand tomorrow -

maybe dying elevated gunk spilling east over that heinous BD air mass

Could be an understatement, too - but yeah ...conservative approach is probably warranted until the signal gathers a bit more momentum. Longer version: That mid month could soar though. There are 'teleconnection tiers' in play ( just conjecture) where the factorization is greatest from lower to high. - the 1st level, more importance, is the anticipation of rising PNA through the 10th .. 11th, prior to its relaxation or even collapse back negative, thereafter. However, what is probably of greater importance to establishing a warm mid latitudes ... the decay of higher latitude blocking tendencies. This latter is a slow kinda grind but I do see that the modeled nodes are weakening out there - that's a very necessary first step in establishing any kind of real change... - the 2nd level is more background, and has to do with residual NINA hemisphere. Despite the recent SSTs decaying back to neutrality spanning the equatorial Pacific, the flow above in middle latitudes around the whole planetary system, being so large, doesn't exactly stop on a dime - particularly when we are heading into a time of year when forcing becomes insufficient to very readily impose change. Newton's First Law of Motion... heh, it's really that basic when we get down to it. So anyway, ... the last known forcing available to the total N. hemisphere was, and still to some degree is, the residual NINA... Many years with big warm bursts in April were during or aft of a decaying La Nina. It's a significant enough longer term correlation. Last week's MJO bullet points published by CPC suggested that the extended handling from that influence was in constructive interference with said background tendencies, fwiw ... so there's that. Honestly though, MJO's seem to have been largely uncoupled for months. I'm not sure we even observed very much influence from this recent phase 8-1-2 migration... Perhaps getting frost at night behind mere cold fronts was related.. So .. the 1st factor above is falling apart it seems. Or a least being de-emphasized in the guidance in recent cycles. I'm certainly not buying the 00z GFS's idea for that 240 to 300 hr range, out of box ... However, something like that could fit. Whereas the 00z Euro and GGEM look like they wanted to go toward the GFS, but when the rapidly pulled the westerlies N over the eastern continent, they end up stranding +PNAP trough base into one of those typical April whirl scenario. The whole morass could be early attempts to open up the flow, though ... The ensemble means of all three have a definitive -PNA dominated continent along with height growth centered on the 15th.

Mm ... I'm not sure we won't get ass paddled by the front hanging up at NYC - This next system (otherwise) is similar to this last one, with one key, important difference: the antecedent pressure pattern layout across Quebec is lobing around Whites and is clearly depicted in all guidance as either a BD, or ( most likely...) a scenario where the front just never gets back through as a warm frontal passage to where it can BD. Either way, that look is a pretty classic April 'no-warm-for-you' shit show synoptic layout. That's as is... I mean, it could modulate toward less impeded warm front - but in our climatology the return rate for that success in the first week of April is exceptionally rare to put it nicely.. I wouldn't bank on that in May.

You guys up that way just flat out failed to warm fropa prior to the cold frontal sweep ...as you seldom succeed to do in those situations. You really need a minimum of 22kts sustained 900 mb level flow from the SW/S to successfully crumble a warm front around the topography up there. Thus have any hope of scouring the cold out from the lee sides of the pine forests... ha. Talk to PF. Yesterday he was musing how the warmer feel was actually when the wind modestly gusted... When it went lighter, the air temp would settle off again. That's why - April sucks. Cold air seems to almost electrostatically cling to the terrain in New England, and requires the power of 10 suns to really bake it off... (being sarcastic -)

Shrub stems are green tinted and their tiny buds are swollen some. Interestingly...the Lilacs buds are more bulging then the rest. The Norwalk maple buds appear to be a little swollen. It's like just waking up and yawning phase out there

Craziest end to that Sox game ... wtf -

warm front means business where it succeeds - ... just didn't until it was too late. But ..here we are in late afternoon and though the sun is now sloped, it's a pretty nice backdrop to 65 F ... Quite the jump in the last hour ... hour and a half. 43 at 2 pm

wow did this turn out to be a royal ass boning for interior Massachusetts, N of the Pike... This was pure BL drag. There wasn't even any +PP N ... we just straight up could not scour this shit out in time. It's 70-75 across E NY... Any questions regarding why April is Satan's rectal glue of a weather month, please defer to Human Resources -

Sat shows a fairly defined clearing. ALB is open sun or very nearly so for example...with brightening/sky lights splashing sun into western CT/MA... It's moving like everything has since 1998 ... unusually fast. Anyway, it might be partly sunny across much of the area - heh... maybe that is scheduled and I'm late to the party on that. I've had a bad attitude about today all week, as it just looked like a typical bullshit New England failed warm sector in a morass of stranded cool murk. So far ...that's spot on. But, I do think these spring days are an interesting perspective when these back side baroclinic cloud walls suddenly peel away and the sun floods in... Looks like my buddy in Auburn 's saying the warm is coming in. Shot from 40 to 54 there.

Interestingly ... over this last week on those sunny days I was noticing how beige the lawn still looked under the warm sun. This morning...despite the still on going dammed air and cold rains ( 38 -R here ugh...) the yard is suddenly sheened over with noticeably more green.

The period ~ 5th -11th has plausibility above climo ... I wouldn't start at thread in spring, at this range ...unless a signal were 'extraordinary,' but this is a robust index relationship/correlation out there, nonetheless. And ... it also takes a bit of bravery on my part to even bring it up considering how checked out I am, hate and despise anything resembling winter at this point... but, I am at the end of the day always seeking the most objective impression on matters. So hats off to me I guess... haha. No but the PNA index takes the continent through a massive mid latitude implication around that time span. I wouldn't laugh it off ... there are operational runs that are responding ( I believe ...) to that forcing, as despite the longish lead they all have 582 dm closed anticyclonic height node over the Rockies ... Regardless of whether these exact cinemas play out the way they see it, they are outlooks the fit the following. Both the Euro and GEFs EPO computations result in an important dip, roughly between the 1st and 5th of April... +2 to -1 SD, perhaps crucial loading numbers when then also comparing the synoptic actuals. There is an apparent temporal relay, as the PNA then has a much more massive correction .. Right around the 3rd or 4th, the index enters modality ...ultimately rising from -4 to just over 0 SD by the 9th or 10th! That's a truly massive correction signal there. But the impetus here is in the term 'relay' - first the EPO loads....then the PNA totes it along and delivers it to 40 N ( typically). That's the idealized model, and then with onset +PNA ...you get the storm potential and the rest is history... Now... bearing in mind, the sun/seasonal forcing will be normalizing the lower troposphere, compensating baroclinic gradients/cold more and more. This could either result in nothing more than a chilly trough, or.. if timing is right, we can inject prior to homogenizing ...That's usually how we get it done post April 1s

First and failed of the season... ... 'least we're spot on climatology, then We should create a thread, similar to the perpetuity and purpose of the 'lawn and garden' thread, only title it, "SNE failing convection," because the remarkable dependency of that is a climatology in itself -