Typhoon Tip

So yeah.... exceeding MOS was probably a no brainer Looks like we'll launch tomorrow morning and get pretty toasty but there's likely to be a combo s-breeze boundary/amorphous BD mash up moving W during mid day. So places like Framingham out along Rt 9 'ill be flirten with 80 or even 84, then come back out of the store and it's 63 of 'what the f'ness at mid afternoon pm ... Logan is done by noon I'd guess. The problem with tomorrow isn't so much a BD. There is a tendency to back the flow from the S to the SE due to pressure falls approaching L.I. It's sort of "instantiating" a BD affect - So if you are looking NE Maine for the tall tale signs there aren't many. Maybe modest pressure rises there. Mostly it's the pressure falls from the south tho. Notice ALB is back up to 80 Saturday and LGA is hooked under held to 68 or so on the 18z NAM FOUS...

I thought the GGEM was likely ...well, being the GGEM, wrt the 00z operational idea of a renewed warmup next week... but now the 12z GFS trended pretty significantly in that direction. Fills the weekend cool back/vortex pretty fast heading into Mon/Tue and mid week on...we're not exactly mid 80s but that's a deep layer mild look in this run

'Synoptic warm burst' 2023 ... in the books What's that now ... 4 out of the last 7 years whence we submerged our senses in +30 by day, and probably +20 night ... These have happened going back in history, sure ...these Feb-Apr jolts. But the +d(frequency) is alarming -

At a minimum the world is bizarre, but perhaps even eerie being apropos for observation out there. This kind of heat amid such a barren nuclear landscape... We have bloating in buds among the maples... a few Norwalks are into flowers, and the red maples are tinged along the glade and grove facades. Other than that and by and large, the majority of tree species are see-through. Yet so hot. It definitely smacks as ... not right. 87 under and open lasing sky

+24 in 2 hrs here. 45 to 69

Next week look partly to mostly cloud with interval showers, with high no higher than 60 the whole way. How does that statistically correlate to ensuing summers. Hmm?

yeah... It's unclear at best. It's more likey not even statistically determined, actually. I mean, no one in this particular social media return usership has done that analysis, I'm certain. Not going in the warm direction, because the majority isn't interested in even being alive in the summer. If they could enter suspended animation, like cryo sleep and be reawakened on November 26th - but if and only if there is a D7 bomb on the EC in a modest El Nino Pacific, they'd sign up. I'm sure the statistics are out there somewhere, but it's unlikely anyone in here has much interest in "weather" warmth in the springs means much to ensuing summer typologies. In the fall? If there's a single packing pellet anywhere in New England, they'll find it and perform a forensic cryo investigation replete with 4th order tensor regressions to figure out the winter ( that sentence doesn't mean anything but sounds funny) Which i have ... lol, and there's not much correlation between October and ensuing winters. Likewise, I suspect the same is true for April --> summer? But don't quote me. Chances are, not much correlation above noise.

Probably don't care to hear this but ...it's been interesting to watch how the terrain is enhancing or even triggering much of that. Presidential Range is sending shit streaks over lower Maine and coastal NH...

April's evil intent at it again ... sets you up with a taste just so it can maximize the cruelty of this

K, well... 17C extrapolates to 94 F ...just sayn' (edit 86 ... but, add the 2-meter slope ? heh... could touch 90) Again, not all the guidance may be doing that. That HRRR is what it is. But the NAM... guys, there's no warm day for eastern Mass on Friday. Those outlooks all week so far for 85 on that day? oops. Cut those down by 30F if the 12z NAM's raging BD boner is right.

What are the 850 mb T's off that product .. more importantly, what are the d(T) at that level between 18z and 21z as a specific modulation behavior? If the d(T) is positive, that means the BL has extended through that level - the impetus being that the adiabats are stretched and you can pretty much take that temp extrapolation and then add the perfunctory 2-meter slope and that's the sfc temperature at max. If there is a delta of 0, the BL is not that tall and we can assume an adiabatic extrapolation sigma that is lower than the 850 mb level. Personally ...with lower DPs and a kinetically charged atmosphere coming on WNW trajectory... the BL is likely to respond to a high solar ( low ceiling RH --> low cloud coverage). That'll raise the BL to be pretty darn tall level tomorrow. I suspect that it does extend through the 850 mb. Regardless of the models - ha... you know like how sometimes we have to consider the actual Meteorology of the moments huh. lol. So what I am saying is... tomorrow has MOS/machine bust written all over it. To me ... it is a matter of to what degree/how much. Remember that warm burst back in 2016 ... 2017? it was in early March. We had 850s to +13 C, which is impressive enough for that early in the year. The forecast was around 80 and that was also eye-popping. 87 ... FIT/BED ...BDL/ASH ... soared out of control and went above the +13C adiabatic suggestion. This appears to be a day tomorrow where we can super adiabatically force a higher BL and cook. I don't have a problem going above expectations - I've seen 91 on March 31 in 1998 from a dry early season transport of continental charged air... hmm

NAM shuts the party down prior Friday for NE of HFD. One warm burst day only, tomorrow. It’s obviously not the most dependable guidance beyond 60 hrs, but it does hearken to the fragility of this pattern. We’re transporting a large anomaly warm air mass using lower tercile deeper layer ridge anomaly … it can more easily modulate.

Temps are tricky today ... at first glance, it is not likely to rise as aggressively during the day as yesterday, because we are presently being side swiped by a vigorous S/W diving out of Quebec thru the lower Maritime. That is "denting" back the 850s/offsetting the diurnal mixing ... Basically, the temperatures stall ranging in the 60s, to lower 70s - I'm guessing - over SW-SE sections. Pretty big gradient between SNE and Maine. But the globals have the 850s warming abruptly after 18z ...so it may also be a late high if we are actively mixing the BL taller under the intensity of the late August sun now that we are loitering the sun in the later afternoons at this time of year. Another aspect is the WNW/NW flow being down slope, transporting an atmosphere that is flirting between the colder shot NE of the region, vs the still kinetically primed air near by S-W ... It's clear CT will be warmer than S NH ... but how much.

When the low temperature on April 11th is equatable to the climatological high -

oh heh. yeah, i thought it was intended for that other debate. Still, regarding that anyway, it could be significant in springs --> ensuing summers. More so than the other way? I don't know.

70/37 at 10:45 on any April 11 is pretty slick ... contaminated sun or not - This is interesting. My home heating is clicking on and off trying to heat an interior of home that is now colder than the outside by a few ticks. It warmed up faster outside this house, than the heater is apparently capable of heating the cold trapped inside? wtf - So, turning off the heat and opening some windows. boom

yup. I was just wryly humoring that with Still N of Pike ... I wasn't really even considering this milk stuff over the last couple of days of modeling. Just flat out didn't think to look. heh Although the sun does appear to be penetrating more up my way now, and sat is trying to open...

mm.. 9.5 milk overcast is sort of reminiscent of a post holocaust waste land ... when the sky is a pale pal of unhealthy enfeebled sun struggling to cast over a landscape devoid of vegetation. I guess we have to keep in mind some sense of 'seasonal relativity' LOL... I mean, whats the f'ed up alternative at THIS time of year. Jesus - yeah...

Yeah.... sometimes that seems to be the case. But ( obviously you know this ...) that "seems" might also have some bit of interpretation bias. I think we remember the times a cold autumn blast preceded an early winter, or early heat preceded a hot summer with EF5s tunneling to China ( ...see what I did for you there ? ), more so than the times they don't? In short, memory bias may be inflating significance. It's a statistical study to prove one way or the other. But my personal hunch is that these early occurrences of warm(cool) in spring(fall) ...actually don't really correlate too well. I think we've already been to the hills and back with discussion over this when on some day circa October ...there are virga shrouded CAA CU with one or two packing pellets on car roof tops ... and all the sudden, a tsunamis of posts brimming with optimism - it's a bit cringy though, because we've shown that it reflects a falsity in that regard. The problem with optimism in the wrangle of controlling one's psychology in this shit, is that it is a code word for 'already has hopes lubed up and ready for blue balling' The trick is to not be swayed one way or the other by or because of the first feel of it, particularly if/when there is not enough statistics that really show that it really matters. I don't have as much of a feel for it in spring, admittedly. I've seen more warm springs parlay to warm summers than the cold falls parlaying favorably to winter of lore. Shy of doing that actual statistical analysis, that is ... It's something I am at least tacitly aware of most years, because I have a weird sort of fetish above heat wave phenomenon. I'm usually paying attention to leading and during temperature anomaly synoptics et al during summers.

Just for the sake of discussion ... folks should get their heads around the notion that what is likely to be the case both sensibly and empirically with temperature and sky this week, these conditions are/were never going to be sustainable in April. Should celebrate the warm burst for what it is - and enjoy it if one's psychology permits. Because any tendency to grouse has no basis in what is fair.

it's going to be interesting and inCREdibly nerdy lol to gauge the response.. Wed night through Friday night may actually be within a couple degrees of 60 F. That should really initiate things pretty quickly. The red maples up my way are the only above shrub level activation ...and it's still just the rusty red. These cold nights have been slowing matters. Spring diurnals prior to green up are typically rather large, but we've been getting a lot of 23 F low temps. Willing to speculate this has been a retarding factor. It'll be weird walking around in an 84 F ambience with that nuclear wasteland look in the flora..

what ... where is that coming from?

Yeah...the acclimating is interesting as a 'human' angle on that. It seems that even in the Met/climo community, there's a kind of 'expectation aura' there? It's probably just unavoidable ... but similarly, so much of it and it's 'okay.' Now, if we sans the 12" snow storms (20 up by you..), the winters were mediocre (imagine taking that tact in 1989? ha) ... But springs are shitty now too if the temperatures are average. Sort of... By the way, I'm up 35 F since 5:30 am ! zomb diurnal baby. That's the yearly record for me. And it's not over with +5 a 850 by day's end. We could squeeze 70 out of this bad bad and really put some stank on busting up machine numbers -

This is a spring 'synoptic warm burst,' as I've been calling it. Not trying to seal credit there or anything silly of the sort, but it is just to point out that it's a new kind of climate phenomenon ( I really believe - ) that's becoming more frequent in the Feb-Mar-Apr seasonality. ...they're basically defined by +20 ( or so...) daily means that really stick out as curvature 'spikes' on the graphical histories. It's fascinating to me... But all these weird 85s in those three month period is an alarming increase return rate compared to any time prior to 1998 and is worth the denote/recognition imho This week...particularly Thurs/Fri is likely to be one of those. And their synoptics are recognizably similar when they occur. Although this one ( interestingly...) is a dimmed 500 mb non-hydrostatic variant, albeit still qualifying overall.

I get the funny sense the only thing holding matters back is the fact that we keep bottoming out at nights. Just looking back at the weather typology ...it's not been like late snows, or show stopping late cold... just a lot of chilly nights. Seems to be the only factor preventing. Other than a one or two overnights over the recent 10 days we've been frosting/freezing temperatures outside of urban areas. 22 to 30 F more oft than not is likely closing cracked buds by night. Forsythia to lilac have been in a kind of suspended bud swell for over a week. Usually if their presenting they've opened by now. Lawns started to green tint a couple of weeks back but also stalled some ... So yeah... the anticipation is that the next several days exceeding 60 and night above 40 should accelerate. Wednesday still looks like a steal back day for VT/NH/ME, tho, as that potent S/W dives out of Quebec and compresses the flow for a day. It's interesting to see the non-hydrostatic heights rising over Ohio/PA while that thing is whisking by ... It's laying in 12 to 18 hour of cold in ME while the larger signal is trying to go the other direction. Makes for a lot of gradient. Could be 78 in NYC and 42 in CAR on Wednesday. In fact, Maine remains bonked on Thursday when SNE gets into the upper 70s fun yet CAR ...46ish? I guess that's not too crazy. No one living above PWM's latitude up there carries on with many delusions about this time of year, but it's certainly indicative of winter's petty reclamation of real-estate for a day. A phenomenon we all risk N-E of the PIT-NYC damned latitudes in spring