Typhoon Tip

Not sure why others are a fighting the westward trend/versions? is there something particularly at stake in having it rain or something? I mean ... it rains the most of what rains ... at night. So who the f cares. You can't run humanity on a planet that doesn't rain, so consider yourselves lucky that by 10 am on Sunday it's already 70 with d-slope light tepid breezes under periwinkle blue skies ... with at that time, life nourishing water put back in the bank. I don't get it... Is it maybe because people are seeking some sort of dystopian jerk off over a drought? You're not getting that anyway

god I f'n hopes so... I mean it won't stop the stein nimrodery but it's like a fetish to try - lol

The finer meshed model types have averaged on the western side of the envelope from what I've been seeing. This also has some convective aspects to it - just scoping the region LI's they are down to -1..-2 range, so a lot of that probably is also "convective smear" - what's likely to really happen is a generalize .75" along a conduit that's ...say 30 to 40 mile's wide/core of a PWAT plume lifting up EC from subtropics NE of Florida, but within that axis ...a couple of training orange lightning producers with short duration rain rates stripe a 2.25. I don't see this event as being >3.0" over that large of an area though

I'm not sure of everyone's particular contribution in this social media, but for me this speculation was/is not a matter of "...forecast seasonally just based on ENSO" -altho, there are many seasonal outlooks where the methodology conveyed does not signal the author did rely much upon anything else ... That's not uncommon either. It's a matter of sciencing (asking the question) over the amounts of weighted contribution. And also, agreed - there are no 1::1 correlations in atmospheric mode to mode relationships, nor in the events that take place over time during dominate modes of either that affect a region. Obviously river phenomenon can happen in La Nina. But when the entire manifold of different climate pathways, in general, in which ENSO is correlated begin demonstrating increased frequency of occurrences in which the correlations are less represented, that is a suggestion that the system is changing - that's just analytic/academic. That's what is paramount ( at least ) in my recent contribution to this thread.

This has been a remarkable spring for diurnal deltas ... I've clocked two that were more than 40 degrees, and several in the mid 30s. Today will also be impressive, with at least as much spread as the latter. 30 was the low ...but numerous home sites within a couple clicks of my location ranged down from that to 26. SO, figure if we get 68 out of today, that's fair enough across the Nashoba Valley for yet a 3rd d(t) spanning 40 degrees. Three times amid so many 30+ is a kind of under-the-radar phenomenon in itself.

We're going to have to monitor the D6-10 range for a potential Sonoran/SW heat release

What a spectacular day on Sunday though

Bingo. Also, Ray mentions this point and it is a good one. People likely already know ... but the NP-Lakes-NE mid latitude continent is hugely subjected to the peregrinations of the polar ward index/idiosyncrasies, which are at best ...vaguely correlated ( certainly not directly and if at all, lots of temporal lag) to ENSOs. The circuitry is perhaps through the QBO ... which almost immediately argues temporal lags ... what a rabbit hole. CPC seasonal long lead outlooks issued Aug - Oct began mentioning this facet above, about the shaky reliance with the ENSO in these boreal latitudes described above... directly citing AO(NAO) some years ago - not sure if they still have that disclaimer recently, but it's always applicable. It's like ENSO really seems to on shaky ground in general as the primary background assumption. So the 'more comprehensive' aspect you mentioned... yar, that's agreed -

Frankly, it would be nice to grab an inch and half of rain - I'm not feeling particularly jaded for nice weather with a 62 to 82 temperature spectrum having been hammered by solar irradiance above climo for 10 days like this... We've been treated kindly since the April misery week and let's get real. 'Sides, every 1.5" we get ..... fails - anyway - to shut the collective pie-hole of that clear "OCD", pointless annoyance, but there's always hope

Not shocking, no - yeah...that idea of that morass being over sold and probably destined to just being an ordinary frontal passage, .. perhaps enhanced some, is sort of been written on the wall. ... that southern stream response is questionable as it lifts astride the EC and meshes in ( previous runs) with the frontal complex sweeping through. For one, the models tend to over amp cumulus clouds at that range, so... we watch for some normalization of that weird bullet s/w it swings down late in the week as being too strong. The other aspect, the timing of the southern system is thus questionable, as well.. seldom well managed in mid range as a general rule, but if that s/w mutes some as it rounds the bend, than capturing and all that jazz doesn't have the same melody.

To me, it is a better pathway using the relative approach. Not to bloviate my own horn, but I've been trying to explain that for a number of years - as ( at minimum ) a partial explanation in why some of these ENSO impact climates, over the past 20 years, have been increasingly less well correlated. Question to answer which might help: - when the total ENSO state is deduced, is that compared to history, or is it compared to the surrounding ambient planetary state at the time of the computations? If it is the latter, than the "relativity" is already baked in. If it is former, 'comparing history,' then lets ask the following question: Does the +1.5 anomaly mean the same thing if the whole planetary system around it is also +1.5? Mmm if that doesn't shutter the assumption at least a little ...folks need to consider a new hobby. Even if the ENSO is on a 'sliding scale' - it still needs to be studied as to whether it's forcing is the same. Also, a separate gripe: part of the problem I have with these charts and graphs that are abundant on the free web ... is that they appear to refer to every metric in context that deviates from a given norm as though it is a statistical anomaly. But in reality, what is conveyed really just refers to a departure from the norm in question. A real statistical anomaly is based upon the standard deviation derivative. And that matters for this question above... because it logically leads to an important methodology issue which whether folks want to admit this or not ... climate change is changing the "standard model" for heat source vs sink ... and that's like taking Ferrari engine out and replacing it with a F150. They both run, but they rev and power distribution at different frequencies.

Yeah that fractal pattern is similar to being under water and looking up - if there were a film making the boundary non-transparent it would be the same pattern. Only movements aren’t as easily seen in the sky because of scaling.

That kind of sky is usually after frontal passage - just sayn'

Modest but growing heat signal D8-12 ... We'll see if it continues to do so or stalls, but given the indices, these operational trends to reorient the larger synoptic construct probably has more legs - at minimum, we won't be dealing with this persistent conveyor from western James Bay, which will probably mean more 80/60+ type of regime

El Nino's coming.. It's efficacy in modulating climate impacts is questionable.

so it's 80 in KFIT and mixing with snow at Montreal

Mm I get the sentiment but this appears to be a little more amped than that. There's record cold in the region during the night... It may fail, but it's in the discussion, and that should be fairly qualified as more than a 'no big deal' But the occurrence of cold in May - I'll definitely entertain the notion that exceeding 1 SD cold, as a part of the CC signal, or at minimum has been a recurrent theme in our springs now going back 15 to 20 years regardless, with marked increase in frequency over the previous 100 years

You know ... the way this trough swings through so quickly, and the whole air mass rolls right on out 24 to 30 hours later ...it really reminds me of a tepid version of that ordeal back in early February that brought the ridic cold that lasted all of 18 hours... I was just looking at the 12z GGEM and it returns heights to 576+ by Thursday evening... No memory of where it was 24 hours earlier... and certainly, unaware considering where we are now. Very similar

My personal feel on that frost/freeze issue is that smoke will mean nothing to the success/failure in that realization ... because it is evac'ed away from the region - been discussing the issue. This air mass will be sufficiently cold enough for frost (freeze N)... the main limiting factor would be wind and success in decoupling enough to go calm.

Loop this ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ ...gives the distinct impression that we'll end up N of the smoke axis as this trough amplitude and round-house cold punch us.

It's interesting ... I almost wonder if the smoke is actually augmenting these terrain triggered cloud plumes over the lower Monad/range, by providing an over-abundance of condensation nuclei ... We are busting temperatures pretty badly as of the hour. It may release all at once in an hour and then we abruptly clear. Though we'll have the smoke filtration still in place. I've read that SAL in the tropics creates an overly proficient condensation nuclei - just wondering if that microphysics are similar in principle.

Higher res vis loops over the continental perspective shows that the cold front punching S across W Ontario is sharply evacuating the smoke behind. This air mass coming in isn't sourced over NW Canada... It's a "continental folding" pattern. Get a load of the standing wave cloud pattern over the terrain, boning us for sun even more than the smoke alone this hour. Overall, we're in an anomalous hemisphere right now, so ... in principle, hosting anomalous behavior ... if in subtle ways. That's doing that over 2,500' ridge line like the Sierra Nevada

Not that anyone asked but my hunch is that the smoke will alleviate when the -EPO circulation mode tapers off... The region/source/origin of the smoke has been in a semi persistent dry/warm anomaly due to the W/NW flow over continental terrain of NW Canada and/or ridging, which is a down-slope trajectory and only augments the circumstance ... If we trust the GEFS/GEPs ...that regime changes between D7 and 10. In fact, it may also herald in summery layout S of 50 N across much of continent when that happens, too.

I think it’s interesting that it’s outpacing the SOI index