Typhoon Tip

Not up to speed on what/if any other's have commented on but Lee looks very extra-tropical on Sat already... In fact, I commented on the busted open core last night - I'm will to suspect that the conversion had already begun as of latter yesterday (speculation pending phase analysis - )

It reminds me … something strange took place with the QBO around then, too. Strong easterly(westerly) phase abruptly broke down, an interruption whence there was a win reversal, before the previous dynamic resumed. I think it or a similar observation in recent times were never before observed. Interesting

Lee’s core is entirely exposed no deep convection really. this may be a tropical storm by 40N. this thing has been acting like it’s been over marginal heat content about 3 days now. I wonder if it fell victim to its own upwelling

Really is the silent remarkable aspect about the storm… I mean really, the GFS storm track being within 500 miles of actual both disheartening as it is awe inspiring … doing so from day 10 when using the mean of all of its runs.

Man that was a nutty shift to the west of the GFS

One aspect I like about autumn ... particularly going past the Met mid point, is the tracking the first snowfall. You may even get a couple of shots at it ... A flurry from a busted virga cu doesn't really count in this - although, that air mass is kind of romantic if someone's wood stove is adding sentiment. You sometimes get the obvious chance, but you might also get those cold cat paw rains that 'smell' like snow? All the while, if they fail, you got like 4 months of retries so no sweat. Although I do start to tune out by mid February if and when the winter's are long and unproductive.

00z NAM slams it into the coast. Lol

I’m not sure the dews won’t creep back tho. I mean it may not be in the 70s again but we’re gonna be getting dewpoint in the mid 60s that’s not very September like either. …yesterday felt drier than it was just cause we’ve been so saturated for so long. I expect more in the same …thinking it’s drier than it really is.

It was both uninspired for observation, oddly at the same time it was extraordinary …in a few different ways.

time to deflate I suppose. Not sure what to call that pattern going forward but it looks devoid of anything that captures attention … Like placidity perhaps the way September is supposed be. Still, going from these last two weeks of Heat Floods Tors and a Charlie Brown tropical cyclone, into that modeled abyss of nothingness may take a methadone lockdown

Nothing like goin from a Charlie Browner event …squarely into a complete emptiness of any reason to engage Kind of like losing the Super Bowl when your hockey and hoops teams are in dead last

Seems like you guys are chasing the end of an unmanned firehose as its flopping around from one run to the next

I'm thinking this snark is actually valid/plausible throughout everywhere, actually ( not speaking to shore communities here...) Not sure I see how BL resistance is overcome unless the core of this thing gets a lot closer. Wind is tricky though. We've seen phenomenal sounding looks for mid latitude wind potentials fall short in the passed with head scratches. Other times there's been over-achievement. It's hard to ignore a 973 MB back NW -I'll give a nod there. But still, it is in fact weakening while that is happening, and as the wind increases it will back due to BL resistance and then you have shear in the vertical cross section and big wind is above that planar rotation, while there is positive stability below..

Yeah, it seems like there’s a tendency to black-and-white this thing… That’s not what is meant by compensating forces. It’s not all or nothing.

I almost think it was better back in the 2005 to 2010 range… Then it became the “NAM” and it really kind of slip backWard.

Yeah, I wouldn’t compare winter phenomenon with anything that’s barotropic i.e. the tropics. The Nam has a NW bias with cyclone tracks and genesis along baroclinic axes, i.e. the temperature gradient between the Delmarva and southeast Massachusetts. It’s always on the northwest side of that thermal interface. A tropical entity moving north, and then interacting with the westerlies … it is a completely different animal.

What I noticed down here is that at 81/66… by typical standards that would be considered a humid day, but it actually felt dry. I think it’s because we’ve been so punished by the sultry dewpoints for so long.

Every model… every single one of them has at one time or another depicted this thing coming in from the south south east into southern New England up thru coastal Maine. none have been able to sustain that depiction across subsequent runs

Coming in from the southeast would be historically rare if not unique

Yes

To be fair … the “amount of RONI” is blurry. … if we’re burying warm ENSOs inside a warming world, we don’t know how much forcing is going to apply nor when. RONI terminates at a soft horizon. So that can screw things up to the point where it could actually force early and not as much late – then it suddenly looks like it’s not coupled so well. Sound familiar? It is basically any kind of application of ENSOs correlation based on 1850 through the year 2000 we need to throw it out …maybe not entirely, but you know what I mean. We don’t live in that world anymore, where those older inference assumptions can be used as readily as a predictive means. I’ve been trying to explain this in different circles for about 15 years actually. A time in which indeed we have been observing increasing occurrences when strange aspects that don’t seem very well correlated are taking place. And people will argue that that happens anyway and they’re right. But the frequency increasing is the devil.

It was a ‘no name’ storm

seems there's always 'big winters' coming from some source or even aggregate cluster of them. I figure it for being colder than summer at this point... There are competing signals in my mind - seein' as anyone et al gives a rats ass. 1 ) early and late season blocking becoming more prevalent - related to CC forcing circulation modes - are independent of ENSO this, PDO that ..., since 2000. This tends to promote early cool snaps that are sufficiently cold to be 'winter like' if not supportive of cryo hemisphere. But they are transient extremes ...tending to waver back warmer than normal. Basically, the late Oct - mid Dec may succumb to this aspect, and thus ... only seemingly well correlated to ENSO - driving the faux attribution. At other times, not well correlated looking. 2 ) ENSO warm tends to be wet and warm early, and cold and snowy late? check that... I thought's what it was. But the points of number 1 may interfere with that on either ends. 3 ) the mid winter circulation mode of the hemisphere may become velocity saturated with approximately 6 to 10 dm more height gradient between the 60th and 35th .. basically along the seam of the HC and Ferrel latitudes. This has also been a recurrent theme in winters over the past 20 years, regardless of leading indicators. When that happens... it forces the R-waves into configurations that don't match the historical inference for pattern forcing back whence. These modem winters have greater variation and temperature extreme between N and S latitudes.

Yeeah... < than 5 days is open to dialogue/skepticism. I mean it's no longer futile to engage in that analysis. You know I had coined the phrase 'predictive event horizon' - meaning that position and intensity forecasts beyond that point in time/extrapolations were so open to variability as to be essentially no skill. We've gone across that. We can begin to shed some solutions which narrows the goal posts

'Statistical interpretation' is a kind of interpretive art, too. I mean, from a much larger perspective ... does Lee count in our 'return rate' ? Unless we want to bake the concept of being exact to region in our return spatial domain - but that's less realistic. Is nature too messy for that? What I mean is, it's like wiser to suspect that if one were to observe ... say 5 TC's over 50 years, that were above the 90th percentile of having dodged all the reasons not to come here, those that struck were all part of those 5 - not all 5 did. In the end, I wonder about the futility of the return rate stuff, at all. I mean, you could get 1938 to happen twice in 10 years, than not see it for 780 years, then have it happen 8 times in a some future two -decade span, one might be inclined to think that means every 108 years. mmm It really means that every once in a time span, there is a flurry of them. Moreover, the setting/cause for the flurries seem to be random distribution.