Typhoon Tip

Yeah the epicosity of today’s shit show is boundless I read somewhere yesterday that 7/8 weekends have ruined one or both weekend days since mid August at the regional scale.

So.... he gets like 4-6" and we get 40-60" just like climatology?

Winter arrives in early November ... (close to making a thread?, but hold off for now) Not sure of the longevity there after - in fact, I wouldn't be shocked if the continent handsomely reverses deeper in the month - perhaps transiently, prior to a cyclic -EPO autumn. Ensuing daily deterministic guidance (i.e., your GGEMs to ECMWF's et al) solutions begin manifesting LE/Lakes and NW el flow snows as a minimum, amid an atmospheric anomaly easily supportive of a synoptic winter profile event(s). The period Halloween through 10th, particularly near the end of that first week - timing and specifics are too nebular at this range to be very specific (obviously). We're negotiating this idea between guidance sources and techniques, but the common denominator below the noise has been and continues to be an extraordinarily deep -WPO. This aspect (and the leading Asian torque foot) has erstwhile been bouncing off a -PDO basal N Pac circulation (AA mode). In other words, there's likely been erstwhile destructively interference between the two. However, using the SST metric ... there is apparently a 'bending' if not break point where the WPO forcing is on the threshold of winning. There is a pretty dramatic -PDO collapse - one that I suggest is partially obscured by a general N Pac that's got a 'thermal hangover' from the global spike phenomenon during this last spring and summer... These changes in NE Pac SST distribution suggest a N Pac atmospheric mode is being more receptive to WPO. That will likely result in a -WPO bursting through/-EPO (AB phase), a hand shake that is manifesting spatially in the ensemble means as early season cross polar construct roughly centered on D12 We're just not doing this at Christmas so we get what we get out of it... There's are some interesting suggestions from basement, too...The MJO has been drilling a hole in space, stuck, for almost 3 weeks, right around phase 8. It is very low amplitude, but present nonetheless. An indirect indicator for its momentum in the total manifold ...there has been modeled a W 850 mb wind over the north side of the NINO 1+2 region, which has both assisted in spinning up far E Pac TC activity, but also occasionally triggering the formulation of CAG circulation over the western Caribbean. It is less important this latter aspect actually materializes for us up here throughout the OV/NE/SE Canada; the model physics have been 'detecting' forcing that is consistent with a MJO phase 8-1-2 space correlation. In other words ... it's there lurking so these tell us not to ignore its contribution to this thing. In the more convention usage: -- the -EPO is both correlated to early season warm ENSO -- modeled to exist now -- is forecast by all ensemble sourced derivatives to relay the above into a +PNA ...OR (and this is important!) a neutral PNA with a +PNAP across mid latitudes of the N/A continent. This is the canonical tendency. We can see 850 mb temperature anomalies flooding Canada while we are basking in a short lease warm up during this mid next week. I'm not firing off a thread for this out of deference to the stochastic model performance during transition seasons. More over, these above changes in the hemisphere happening, whilst the atmosphere has already got teenager changes-induced mood swings going on already ...should nicely assist even ensemble weighting to swing too far left or right - so to speak. But I'll tell ... it is honestly a refreshing journey to have something legit in the relative coherency of scaled indicators to finally write about. It's been probably 3 years since I've had this chance. Lord

I have my doubts on it intensifying very much further (seeing as you asked me LOL ) Just a hypothesis, but we may have already peaked. I have a notion I'm working on that the Aerosol-related/theorized global temperature spike cast an allusion of stronger drive. The La Nina suppressed the atmospheric thermal response to the reduction in aerosols...spanning a few years of its unusual longevity. It seemed that as the La Nina first began empirically weakening earlier this last spring, the global spike phenomenon, both air and sea and amid every latitudes (shocking actually) ... all left the launch pad and ascended almost lock step. These changes were prior to the warm ENSO foot being established. There are El Nino mechanics going on, but these disparate aspects are very difficult to parse out from one another. There's been too many baseline canonical mechanics insufficient for an El Nino destined to an exalted dimension, and that's been pretty evident all along.

Foliage appeared to have two aspects going on... One, this Septoria fungus hurt a lot of trees. Those that were damaged tended to down leafs prematurely along with a poorer color presentation, much of which began a couple of weeks earlier than normal ( end-ish of September). Two, those that were not affected appear to be transitioning into their expression peak a week to some 10 days late. It seems this latter aspect is 'salvaging' the season for some areas. Lot of species that I grew up with would not carry on saffron and reds this late into October. Usually done by the 12th or 15th... Interestingly, Oaks are going yellow up here - so there's something weird with them too

Yeah, I stopped short of mentioning that split flow is a precursor to icing and stuff but yeah

Most often when a -EPO onsets the initial Rossby signal is a shorter wave length. This initially forces an undercut jet to torpedo underneath the block. It may wiggle the PNA negative when that happens … but transitory. The normal progression of the mature -EPO is to neutralize it by dumping the geo-p surplus (figuratively) into PNA’s eastern domain —> +D(PNA) This is the idealized model … variations on this theme take place. For ex, rapid relays can move the EPO so quickly that the merge with and forcing a rising PNA are almost seamless. Other times the EPO hangs around and the split/and or “torpedo jet” (flow bifurcation) can last longer.

The idea of cooling off the eastern continent in the first week of November has legs. Magnitude? ...yeah, cross that bridge... General reader: there are some pretty identifiable and classic mass field behaviors going on in the guidance spread (foreign and domestic) - namely, a relay from a potent early -EPO into a distant ( presumed ...) elevation of the PNA. That's the canonical practice in the time-lag relationship between those particular very important indexes for loading east of the Pacific... blah blah ... = a cooling implication evolves by that time.

I always think these aspects are interesting ... You could travel from Brownsville TX to the border of Montana with Canada, and never see a cloud on any distant horizon the entire way....

If you think that this CC thing is but a slow moving apocalypse … there are events in nature that may beacon a warning CNN — Billions of snow crabs have disappeared from the ocean around Alaska in recent years, and scientists now say they know why: Warmer ocean temperatures likely caused them to starve to death. … first example of CC-attributed flash extinction in our time - even if not the entire species … “billions” in short years certainly makes the point - can happen

with the dizzying array of abbreviations we toss around at one another PNA … to CAG … to NAM … WPO EPO NAO AMO PDO MEI IDO … you threw a PTSD out there and it struck me! LOL because it was causing post traumatic stress disorder when I couldn’t find the ATM teleconnector ..,

There may be some regional expression ...i.e., not uniform, because it's a foliage shit show up my way.

This is actually a good observation ... taking note of these less than obvious nuances in the layout is really where life plays out. Obviously, these observations of tendencies by Halloween do not mean they will persist through Christmas - we know that... But, in the example of the PV axis varying to either side of the pole: the telecon layouts and general numerical representations of the mass field biases et al, do not always reflect those 'giga' motions. And, those kinds of idiosyncrasies are likelier related to why some negative(positive) index modes result in different cold(hot) temperature anomalies, despite seemingly the same. What happened during the 2006-2007 winter is a great example of this. It was during the first 2-weeks of that abomination when the AO crashed almost historically. Spanning the previous 40 days the index had soared to twin towering +4+ SD anomalies lasting 10 days each, couched in a +3 SD weirdness. When it descended, it did so in just a week's time, dropping from +4 SD to almost -2! But, it took another 2 week+ for the cold to find its way over to our side of the hemisphere.

Nah, there's more predictive skill than a 384 chart. I get the sarcasm, but Halloween being balmy mild? That was/is questionable as that range appears(ed) to be on the temporal horizon of a pattern change. To mention also ... 12 days away. First in the foreground, there is higher confidence -EPO burst. Downstream, this drops heights over the western half of the continent - not always, but is the preferred initial response to the -EPO forcing. Heights fall in the west ... wave spacing arguments suggest we raise heights over the east. We see that happening in the ensemble means. It is all a reasonably confident evolution. The question is timing the progression of these events; particularly what happens after the initial -EPO forcing. The natural progression is to collapse - or pulse down - the ridging of the -EPO, and as that happens, the PNAP tends to rise. Perennial North America Pattern (PNAP) is not quite the same as the Pacific North American oscillation (PNA). In situations such as the -EPO burst, the PNA may drop negative, but in terms of relative magnitude, the PNAP drops more than the PNA. Later on, the PNAP rises as the upstream -EPO pulses down, expressed as either flattening flow across the continental mid latitudes, or NW east of 100W or so... This total relay of events brings the cold east - how much or little is idiosyncratic to the exact layout of the PNAP at those times.. Again, timing all that complexity is fools errand - it's more about knowing it will happen, but not really being very knowledgeable about when. These changes can all take place quickly, or slowly. It's a morass. The way things worked out overnight in the runs, the models are attempting to progress through those chapters quicker - in fact, I've noticed this tendency to speed up the hemisphere ..( heh, which began in 2002 but that's another story). Anyway, by the 28th ... 29th of the month, we've already transitioned into the +PNAP, lowered heights N of Lake Superior to Onterio, and are scraping morning windshields along 40 N.

Yeah.. cobbling together a headline there. heh. I've been noticing that we're really just getting narrow diurnal spreads... It's like 47 to 59 type air. Sometimes we'll score a 38 but not frost - granted. I guess it's technically above in the numbers but not so much by experience.

The climate is moving N, there's no question - some people cannot stand when reality and data conflicts with how they were told to think by certain political machinery - But, facts are facts ... That said, I doubt we've displaced Norfolk VA to New York City just yet. Personally? Yeah, I believe it possible to cross thresholds, beyond which, aspects "lurch" all at once - the creeping progress before was like the bulge deformation in an earthen dam before it bursts... Then the water backs up at the next next dike and starts working on the next threshold. And on and on we go, each one being explained by the same machinery ... (I'm being snarky little). But moving the climate band ...what is that, 500 miles? I'd like to rack up a few more years to formulate a bigger data sample. Many of these areas S of Hartford CT ( and in fact ... there's plenty of bitching and moaning going on in New England too -), are working on 4 or 5 years of piece of shitness winter expression. It's also noted.

Ha Ha, NORLAN with rain instead of snow

OH, I don't know if they did. It may just be something about this air mass. I just don't ever recall seeing that particular milky texture like that. I love how the convective elements are hole punching that lower level miasma when looping.

Yeah .. bearing in mind of course, this is just an idea (the 'over compensation'). There'd necessitate an entire scaffolding of geophysical calculations to really build it out or substantiate ... ha! Problem has been all along for me, too many irregularities in the behavior of everything to be certain in what is driving what... Not just in the creche of the warming NINO districts and the coupling (or not) with the immediately OLR/atmosphere, but in how the entire system of the planet, ocean and air, unilaterally heat burst in March and carried on through the summer; well before the El Nino mechanics were really even started. Mmm... I don't care what anyone says - I'm a reasonable scientific thinker, and have been around ( also ) for a lot of years ( date myself haha) That global heat flash causality most likely is obscuring the mechanics of this El Nino - some way, some how. sorry to babble. anyway, - let's suppose there's veracity to the over comp hypothesis ... once correction completes its momentum some kind normalcy of systemic variability returns. But therein is a whole Pandora's box, because the normalcy of variability, is itself, changing due to CC rapidity/acceleration. I guess what I am saying is that we could observe bumps for other reasons and then do what we do as a species ...which is busily start assigning blame everywhere before the facts.

I wonder when it will be said, '...the writing was on the wall ...' with regard to when this El Nino peaked. I've always wondered if the actual global mechanics for this warm ENSO event were being partially confused (assumed to be more) with what is really an "elasticity" in the planetary system. We suppressed, thermally, for 4 years or whatever anomaly that NINA mode unrelentingly carried on ...then, La Nina ends. There's a kind of over compensation in the other direction as the system wholesale got momentum that overshot the real resting point. That overshot casts the allusion of it being a harder right into El Nino, but it was really just about a correction going on. Now, the correction settles off, exposing a more moderately warm ENSO - buried inside a pepperRONI pizza with multiple toppings notwithstanding Anyway, when the dust settles from the (hypothetical) compensation idea, the remains of the "real" El Nino is left exposed as more of a moderate in the relative sense.

I was just gonna comment on that - COD appears to have changed their algorithm. Particularly in the lower levels - I'm not sure that is intended or if that is an artifact of a 'bug' in the rendering, but I kind of like it. If studying the loop of that image, you can clearly tell by behavior that is highlighting the RH fields trapped below some 900 or so mb inversion. Pretty cool ...

The thing that's funny about that ... I keep reading these seasonal outlooks, replete with climate colonoscopies ... and they're so elaborately written with all these charts and graphs and inference that no one at NASA would ever bother with.. .Yet, through all that dizzying intellect, no one ever mentions the fact that the climate bands are actively moving N up the eastern side of North America. I don't sense this is even factored into most I've seen. It seems like people engage in constructing these outlooks to fantasize, or ... create plausibility that offsets/adds something back to whatever the baseline patently shows. I guess the problem is just the same as it is in any form of discussion that utilizes method in mass media. It's selling information ... people popularize people who placate/enable their personal belief systems, wants and dreams. That's more what the author's are after. I'm digressing ( I know) but wow, what a moral scaffolding we've become, huh. Once we became a presentation based artful new agency -built society, very honest news reporting or reality itself, were doomed.

Lol... add that to the list, huh -

I didn't say that right so I deleted it... What I mean was, with increased Ozone that traps heat from planetary wave decay at high altitudes and latitudes. This inject appears to be the source for so-called Sudden Stratospheric Warming events. However, there are just as many intra-seasonal time spans in recorded history/data, where the AO meandered negative(positive) without the advent of a SSW physical exertion. In other words, if other planetary mechanics are at work ... driving a -AO biased season, the inclusion of an SSW should inherently become less identifiable - ie., making no difference. What I think is a better study is whether remove the SSW years from those with higher than normal Ozone residence. Then, of those years ...determine if the AO was negative(positive) for positive vs negative 0zone.

Looks like it could be pretty mild on Nov 1 Maybe a 70 Halloween if it doesn’t pass by then.