Typhoon Tip

Yeah... was just gonna say, ... doesn't seem like the pathway to an exceptional fast warm ENSO arrival -

Man is it dark under this convective band... Hard to believe it's mid day under a solstice time of year. It's equivalent to like 8:45pm dusk. I wonder if this is what it was like 10 days after Chixulub all over the planet

...I thought that was called a queef

Did you move there ? I thought you lived somewhere along 93, N of Boston to NH... It's looking this thing's verifying, but was wrong on placement. Interesting. There's a region of partly to mostly cloud down here SW of roughly Nashua NH, and in this region we're destablizing with splashes of filtered sun ..temps into the low 70s. But it's sparking slow movers. Still, it's not the same as the advertized 2-3" banded QPF bomb the models were layin' down between Springfield Ma and Providence RI just yesterday.

Special props to you ... when you were buckin' for improving skies yesterday it looked like fantasy camp, but even here... we're now 72 with DP feel to the air and some sun getting through. That oughta make Scooter happy that you got one right - lol

Oh yeah I agree. As they say in social dynamics, 'politics is perception' similarly ... timing is everything in how we manifest our perceptions. It's just funny how the relationship between "existential climate" vs empirical climate seldom reconcile. haha. If these closed troughs happened late Wed through early Fridays and not coincided with every f'ing weekend, and we were back to 80 today, instead of doing that between today and Monday or whatever it takes to move this pos along, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Or, 'what a June' has the other connotation -

I just looked at Burlington NWS' climate maze ... (assholes) web interface and finally found the cumulative June ... looks like y'allz runnin' about -0.6 and not terribly outside normal for rainfall so far. So, yeah ... 'what a June' - as in, nothing inspirational and within reasonable climate norms, is the new horror. HAHA

Yeah... as the day's aging on, it seems there's "partial bust" with this. I mean, it's not opting toward a nice day for us back E per se ha, it may be prove drier

Ok ... Sunday was the day that rolled eyes and stopped me from looking any further. It's my bad attitude about these 2-meter graphics out in time. LOL For one, the Euro's 2-meter does tend to be too low in the summer anyway. They all do. It's probably an avoidable error out in time, though. As the model's projection gets longer, it's collecting stuff from ... "fractal inclusion" that interferes with potential but won't likely really exist. so the products tend to dim. The orbital synoptics look like a good ole fashion barn burner over the top job. Which can f-up from this range anyway but assuming - The mixing signal is there on Sunday, yet it limits to 80s thing. Who cares at this range though - right. hahaha. I took look anyway at the other shit and model's pretty 300 and 500 mb loaded with RH so it's likely cloud contaminating the heating ability. That said, I don't see how the 850 mb expands thermally to 20C and still obeying the adiabatic math so that seems dubious. We'll see... But you're right about Saturday. I would argue though that the correction vector is pointed up by a little.

I'm personally taking a blend of the 00z Euro with the 06z GFS for general layout, and sans any details for now. The impetus behind doing so is because they are the best fit for over 2 weeks worth of index continuity, which shows a robust -EPO with a mode change of the PNA dropping some 1.5 total SD, whilst the NAO is going from negative to neutral positive. With the wave lengths/distribution shortened, particularly wrt the -EPO forcing across the downstream continent, in the end the ridge signal through the Ohio Valley and SE Canada should be more successfully realized. That's precisely what the operational runs are finally coming around to seeing. I call this a > 50% latter mid range outlook/confidence, too. Getting into particulars ... yeah, there's room to negotiate based on nuances of timing both 850 mb warm nodes with diurnal cycling... Related to that, the SW heat release model is taking place antecedent to all this, so that kinetic air source being accessible is also a wild card that could send this more into synergistic tendencies ( whereby we over achieve...). To mention cloud distribution and or convection. This ridging won't be historic, and so total suppression of the latter isn't assumed. These sort of details need to be sorted out. But definitely going above normal from ~ Wed but more certainly Thurs - Sunday. The 00z operational Euro would send Friday and Saturday to the mid 90s. It's 2-meter graphics looks retarded through the whole period. It dawns next Saturday with 850's around 16 .. 17C, and ends the day at 20C ... limiting the sfc temperatures to 82 to 84? That 3 degree bounce near the top of the planetary BL during the day, given the total synoptic manifold going on through the period, is more likely happening because the mixing layer has heated and grown that tall... in other words, the adiabats will extend to 20 f-ing C at that altitude. So it should be about 94 to 96. I don't get these products some times...

Today's a head scratcher as far as rain distribution. I'm fighting off the notion that this was over-blown by the guidance. Seeing the 06z NAM putting down 2+" over Boston ... like, AT that exact point and nowhere else, and then knowing the 00z was much more evenly distributed... that random distribution gam really hearkens as the models being physically over sensitive - similar to why April coastals to that. They tend to be over-selling mid range coastals, but when push comes to shove there's isn't enough baroclinic gradients in the low levels - much of the cyclone remains aloft. On the other hand ... this isn't in a hurry to leave, and when/if some of the convective nature of this kicks in over the next 12 hours ... rain balls are likely be moving across radar at the blinding speed of cells reaching out to one another under a microscope ... just unloading.

meh, pretty big continuity break down after ~ Mon/Tue ... not sure I buy this run

Not nearly as much/ no heat on this run next week.

from a spatial perspective ...it's odd to go from a low 80s warm summer day to NE wind 55er deluge like this. weak mechanics too -

nah, that'll just be light mosquito rain...

You get nothing in CT and like it actually...

That's a big heat, heat wave on these recent gfs runs. This 12z appears the warmest yet in the synoptic scaffold. Near flawless arrival direction, transporting a SW released air mass ... if anything you gotta go above MEX, and definitely go above the 2-meter graphic versions. Seeing as the latter is already in the 96 ... 97 range at max impact, makes doing so a little bit of a challenge ...agreed. I mean I'm not willing to ever call 103's from this range - but cross that bridge. The indexes are also heavily in support of eastern mid latitude continent positive departures. The period between now and the 30th has really been signaled for well over 2 weeks. I've been chirping about it here and there. I recall frustrating a tad because the indices were flagging, but the operational runs were lagging - like entirely ... As far as I can tell, it appears the operational runs waited, and the ensemble means were just too early, but now the two are coming into tandem... 20th - 26th ( negotiable ) may be what seems to have become a canonical event: the summer entry heat-wave ....before settling back into maintenance H We'll see. I'm just a "little" bit concerned about the "synergistic heat bomb" effect ... We'll have to watch for that. Sending 20+C 850s over the top ... where it's been dry in Canada ( see wildfires ..), under the solstice sun... these types of combinatory metrics, it gets a bit dicey when we consider the heat bomb effect going on globally.

Seems if projections work according to plan ( heh ) the month is destined to average close to normal? Right now the major climate sites ( which are entirely obtuse using Providence, Boston and Worcester because of those locations are less rationally representative of civility ... different subject) suggest the region runs -1 to -3 below normal. Almost seems it should be lower than that... But the hemisphere/ super synoptic heads in favor of heat delivery. This week as the doorway period has been in play for like 3 weeks of extended techniques...

interesting. it was 68 here at noon. It's burst to 80 ...

Ha ...maybe this will be the first documented "Atlantic El Nino"

The other aspect ... that closed low was never more than 576 in scalar modeled depth. Relative to the surrounding medium, it was always a bit dubious how much the models were were using that shallow mechanics to cause all that shit tubing out of the east anyway. GGEM trended a little too fwiw -

Ha - more like, AWATNO ... As We Advanced Weather True Or Not

Yeah, I was just going to comment on that ... This can sneak up and bite - these "synergistic heat phenomenon" ... A pattern change has been pretty evident for many, many runs now, one that would at minimum offer more seasonal low temperatures and increasing WB temps... It's always a bit of mystery when nearing a wholesale design change, whether we're heading into amp town or how far.

It's more amusing than anything - not that you think anything more. But forgetting the outlook distance ... A 986 mb rapidly filling core passing over 55 F colder than normal shelf waters is probably barely above a breezy day ... lol Gotta love the GFS fantasies

It's their typical m.o. with "..environmental conditions are conducive," which can encapsulate a lot .. But I wonder if this emerging Cape Verdi TS and invest trigger pull might be related to the marine heat wave that's occurring over the eastern Atlantic. ...soaring to some +4 C over a gargantuan area, too.. interesting. CV season on June 15 is pretty darn early