Typhoon Tip

Not sure this is believable but,

could it have been a Bobcat ? they're not exactly tiny. Although their tails tend to be smaller. Just sayin'

Yeah, ...not sure if it were you or someone else asking the other day, but there was a similar question related to 'when-knowing,' or getting a feel for when to promote something out of mere noise, into the running of real chances. The same response here. Primarily, consensus from multiple sources that shows or begin to show scenarios that look the same. That's a big one. Sometimes a seemingly innocuous single solitary ensemble member puts up some different idea than the going consensus, then another... Couple runs later, another and another add in. Then more collapse in favor of the new idea and a new consensus is born. There's many ways that can materialize, but in general, just taking note of what the consensus is, that's where the confidence is. Unless one possesses some sort of prescient gift of vision in said matters ... lol. There's also trend awareness from two different facets - this can modulate the above (more advanced). One is related to the tenor of the pattern: 'Has the setting happened before/frequency therein?' etc. The other is, 'Does the trend in question still fit into the pattern mode?' Those are little bit more abstract ... the latter one is particularly "artful" because the pattern mode can subtly vary while still technically or seemingly be in the same mode, but that subtle change represent physical influences in the background ... which questions the wisdom of trend reliance.

Not sure we should we bite ( ...heh, not ), but the telecon spread was subtly improved for winter enthusiasts out near and beyond the 20th+ Fwiw, the EPO is sagging in time. It's not like it's cratering or anything, but it goes from +1 to -1SD over 10 days. Whilst the PNA, although mainly neutral is going from neutral-neg to neutral-pos. Some thoughts on that: When it comes to handling the EPO index, the declination is probably more important than how it gets there. Per my experience, I wouldn't be surprised if that slow gradated look is there for 2 or 3 days in the runs, and then suddenly we see it manifest with more coherency in the actual structure of the total synopsis. We already had one 10 days ago (when we were in the 70s/near 80 that week). So, it's not like it's unprecedented for this year/season to date... Also, some fun I noticed ... the 00z GFS and Euro were, in principle, agreeing on the D5-10 range. But the GGEM was not. The GGEM was setting the table for something wholly different and fun. Lingering albeit cold enough air mass drapes N of the Ohio River Valley throughout eastern Lakes and NE, while a strong N/stream punch of energy cores out a pathway over the Lakes - extrapolating precariously toward the upper M/A underneath said lingering albeit sufficiently cold enough air mass. Oh man ...pleasy weezie with sugar on top. Too bad it's like that day dreamer model in the class while the respected academics hash things out. But, then the 06z GFS arrived with a pretty significant structural redress that hearkened to the 00z GGEM idea ... Not entirely, just hearkened. It turns the corner over the Lakes with a punch of S/W mechanics, toting along a decent shot of polar A/B air. That's a like a tap on the shoulder after the class when out of sight of the rock stars, "Hey man, don't sweat it that the others were makin' fun of your idea back there - I understood what you meant. It's not impossible."

Let's just hope the ENSO couples into mid latitudes strongly enough to force the Rossby orientation - I'm not so sure it will, but is admittedly experimental on my part.

Well, what were the winters? That's the whole point. They were above normal temperature, with above normal snowfall - the latter by virtue of above normal precipitation in general. Within that frame, I was only advancing the possibility that the snow is skewed toward higher results because when it is/has snowing/ed, it's done so with greater deposition - it's [likely] part of CC that there is an increased frequency of observed single event hypertrophic results (synergistic heat, cold and precipitation are all empirically larger, world over, spanning that last 20 and particularly that last 10 years). Look, there probably was more to that discussion prior to my arrival - so it is what it is. But it should be easier now for one to imagine three weeks dumping 70 inches, and exceeding yearly snow total, even having a couple of cold waves embedded,. Those actually lie about the fact that the other 9 other weeks of DJF were pieces of shit. Lol. That's all. -little sarcasm, sure just I'd also caution ... using a single location to characterize the region surrounding. Mm, that is mathematically false. Doing so using Logan in particular? That is an especially poor location for characterizing southern New England. He was saying the winters sucked because they were warm much of the time and were compressed into a shorter windows. He's actually not entirely wrong based upon my own memory. Winters N-NE of NYC's latitude aren't ever end to end, anyway. I don't ever recall one in my decades of life. The closest we've ever come was 1995-1996 and that one took a 40" snow pack down to field ponds and steaming snow banks in 10 days flat in the Hades of all thaws mid way through... That said, there's just not refuting that the warm periods have grown in length, while cool times have shrunk. Snow has increased, but again ...the statistics kind of lie about the experience of it when the retention is twice as short, and there is more rain to go along with.

Wait tho- how does Boston having abv normal snowfall in 6 out of the last 10 years successfully abase what he said? Just as an example, there’s a new climate signal for single event results that are so extreme that one or two of them in a season can push a location to or even exceeding seasonal normal. I guess it all matters snow total then? I guess… for me if it’s 60° 80% of the time and you get two big snow storms that doesn’t cut it but that’s just me.

Yet that never seems to trigger an objective brow raise amongst his constituency

you have the right idea. I mean grass is one of the worst things for the ecology - there’s been a wave of citizens for global vision type rethink on how people manage their property in the past 10 to 15 years. Lol I’ve come to find people in here are the last to know about this wave of thinking. “Green” lawns should have rock gardens, and non-treated mulch and perennial plant beds and garden boxes - all of which can be done in aesthetically pleasing ways to the point of even art Re the gas powered mowers. Tough shit. Wahaah. Jesus there’s nothing wrong with electric mowers, though… Couple neighbors have rechargeable bat powered ones and they work just fine. Granted you’re just moving the carbon footprint to a different location - for now. But with more and more renewable energies feeding back into the grid eventually that will offset that “hypocrisy”

heh.. 12z GFS has no pattern. Above and below normal with irregular oscillations and lengths of time. Guess just stick with the ens means for now. Whatever they're showing... but even the wholesale means are giving competing indications.

I see what you were looking at now. Yeah, may be a warm interlude - I was looking past that. Lol. gee, what's on my mind - But the GEFies had been indicating a +PNA toward the 20th. Thing is, it's like a "warm +PNA" ? Cool circulation type amid a modified hemisphere. In other words... inCREdible boring. Could use a -EPO burst while/if/when we warm in the foreground, otherwise that's liable to host cool rains in between mild days toward the week of T-giggedy...

Really…? I thought the opposite. oh well better for me… I’ve got a disc golf tourney at the end of that week.

I wonder with this scunge cloud debris if some of the mild potential today is being robbed.

Not entirely but doesn't hurt. The "cold loading pattern" for north America is really before that. When there is a ridging over the Berring Straight through the Alaskan sector, directs a cold conveyor/delivery over the western semi arc of the polar domain, which dumps it down stream over western Canada ... Eventually is sprawls out across the continent. The PNA then moves toward +PNA mode ... completing the destiny - which looks like this below. You can get a sense by looking at this above, whatever cold air was erstwhile delivered over Canada, then gets directed south into the U.S. That's more or less the idealized model. Above is a positive PNA look. The typology of the +PNA layout is usually negative height anomalies N/NE of Hawaii, with downstream counter-balancing positive anomalies over western N/A. Check. Somewhat intriguing considering that chart is 10 days to 2 weeks out in time, and these features are so coherent. That's not exactly hinted there. Notwithstanding, 330 hours. However, given success, that would probably be a stormy look - an assessment that comes down to emerging in the positive direction. It's getting more advanced in the discussion but when on that side of the evolution, fun stuff is more likely to take place.

Interesting ... the GEFs appear to be playing catch-up to the Euro weeklies of all things. Long range/mid month hemisphere looking increasingly +PNA-ish

It's the perils of progressive patterns. Error is much higher. Here's the deal, ... the GEFs PNA index end ups rising from -.5 to +.5 between now and Nov 15, doing so with surprisingly limited spread for both the time of year but just considering going all the way through week 2 in general. There's no "spike" there...just a gradual ascent. A pulse at some point along space and time signals enhanced restoring system potential. However, NJ model low and/or flat frontal wave type events take place beneath the large mass field perturbation. The restoring is triggered within smaller nested domain spaces below those larger scales. The PNA is so massive a domain space, a NJM wave eject, out of the eastern limb, could fit along a more gradual sloped ascent like that. . To be fair. The WPO/NPAC/EPO ... are sending warm signals. However, the +PNA/ +EPO correlation, particularly post -EPO bursts ( like last week) would tend to be colder look of N/A as the +PNA forces NW flow through the NW Territory - the negative EPO damage was already done. Which we are seeing. Check... So..it's not clear what the upstream N arc of the Pac has in mind or if may overwhelm. I think what we are seeing in the guidance is sensy 'giga' movement because of that.

Layman, Yeah what he said ^. Sorry I didn't back to you - it's officially shit month at work ( apparently. F!) The only thing I'd add is aspects like the trop. forcing and/or ridge placement that he's mentioned? - those are also changing in time. The models can error with those different regional mass-field influences. Which would of course then introduce error in how the main ridge and troughs ( the pattern ) ultimately situate. To help with some that, the ensemble means are used. They tend to be more reliable at outer time ranges, because by averaging all those solutions smooths out the individual aberration/oddities. But even this method can be screwy at times -the transition seasons can see wholesale 'redraws' at times. It's the major reason for error in the outer mid range ( D5-7) and extended. More often times a consensus in the guidance that seems to routinely materialize right around D4. In recent years, we've seen poor consensus among the models even 2 days ahead ... owing (probably) to the fast flow bias in the winter hemisphere's that's been observed over ~ 1.5 decades. This go of it was more subtle ... The N Pac was transiently lowering heights northeast of Hawaii - and still are really... This was creating more of a +PNAP ridge response downstream over W N/A Rockies in previous run cycles compared to 00z. That lent to more trough over the OV. "Constructive interference" - or perhaps less destructive works too. But last night the heights were made to be flatter over the western continent... and on and so on.

Wholesale change swept through the guidance. Maybe the writing was on the wall? Not sure... but the previous 0z cycle was 'strange,' before the 12z (yesterday) attempted to bring certain aspects back more coherently again.. The idea being, sometimes the scaffolding wobbles before it collapses. Sensitivity appears to be the west and north Pacific handling. This run made a significant move away from the AB(cold stormy N/A) to the AA (mild/ flat N/A) circulation mode. It's aggressive enough that it's sending opposing wave signs/negative aspects through a region Will and I were musing over ... forcing a positively tilting victim of destructive large-scale interference... I suspect that is what Kevin's referring too. Will an I were impressed with that structure in prior guidance etc. Anyway, this is an interesting change for nerds.. That's an usually massive difference in/for one run. We actually end up with a zonal flow/ridge compression over mid latitude continent out in time, and that could just as well be a prelude to warm up mid month. Typically we meet continuity breaks with skepticism... but this change was the entire hemisphere from Japan to the Atlantic - what could change that much mass inertia, and just be a burp run? I dunno here folks. we'll see

Oh shit yes ... That's not the first time I've seen that sort of hemispheric scaffold like what he posted, from the GEFS/GEPS as well... Sometimes the autumn patterns don't parlay as well as they did in 1995 ... granted. (obvious sarcasm). But if speaking what-ifs, agreed. If we're doing this in the core I think a few locations would go a considerable distance toward fixing their apparent decadal snow fall deficits, up.

That is a f'n beautiful construct presage to a NJ Modeler dude. wow - I know I have been hitting that storm type rather hard as of late, but I think ( full disclosure) this is a ripe 10 days for those flat wave rapid detonators ... beginning this weekend and through next week. Could be two of them ... hell, go 1996 on dem bastards. It doesn't take much when you have that ^, happening post a -5 SD EPO burst (last week) that collapses into a rising PNA like we're seeing spanning the totality of October 25 - Nov 10 - I mean IF that were to take place a month from now I said at the time, the only hold backs were the time of the year... However, seeing this air mass snow so easily in CT... and having 0C lower than 925 mb with orb sun no less, got me bun-able today

Guaranteed a few individual members have majors M/A to shore NE given the morphology of that +PNAP trough amplitude over 300 hours there

It's also pretty cold all the way down to 2000 elevation, too. -0C at that level and -6 at 850 ( I think I saw but check that). Anyway, fall rates don't have to be very heavy with a cryo altitude that low.

Definitely room in the Euro for that to come south. The mid and upper level hemisphere through that synoptic period has a barrier vortex look over central/E Canada, and the Euro just from person experience over the years will often times overcome by attempting erroneous early phase.

I'm kinda of nice about it in Novie. I don't expect much, either ... It's not like that winter anxiety we're denying on January 12th because of a so-far seasonal snow total of a whopping 5.4", while the models are urinating thaw patterns in the extended. We got "blue" thickness within reach if not accessible, with an active pattern? I'm good with that

Classic NJ Model low depiction on the 12z GFS ... classic flat wave quick mover. Middling intensity but text book's aren't really bombs either.