Typhoon Tip

I think you guys are both right… There’s just a cross up going on between: a mental health crisis working in tandem with a demographic having access to firearms that could not objectively be construed as responsible owners.

I get it, but without reason…? By definition that’s insane.

Well … what are we blaming it on, sanity?

They’re probably trying to cut their total heating cost this winter by committing to their wood stoves. These energy companies are hiking rates unreasonably and seemingly unchecked

I pretty sure that event triggered a tropospheric fold on that ESE jet nose. Check that but I read that somewhere. We actually had some nasty gusts even here in that but just below damaging.

-EPO burst is driving the western lowering of hts this week ... The R-wave mechanics then lend to coupled ridge in the SE-E. Question for me is amplitude and residence ( time of 'standing wave' ). I kind of feel like the runs are not allowing the progression into the +PNA--> +PNAP and holding back some. -OR ( this is interesting...) they are, but what's happening is the flow is compressing. We trade the +PNAP geometry for a unusually fast total tropospheric geotrosphic velocities. I'm seeing some GFS solutions with 12 isohypses already. I hate to inform seasonal outlookers .. .you really need to factor in fast flow if that is not already happening. If we are only concerned with scalar precip tots and air temp averages for the season, that is one thing. But pattern residence with shorter lease, their leading mass field index modes also being less stable/prone to bigger changes over shorter periods of time. This will lead to increased potential for anti-correlated mode realizaton at times, too. Including ENSO to the doctor with a sprained ankle.

Heh ... I was living in Acton at that time .. I don't remember it that way to be honest. We had one or two unexpected/over achievers, but we had too many giant historical bombs that cranked the Cape at the last minute and we ended with flurry orb sun in 9F cold for me to be sold by that adjective. It didn't suck ... it left too much on the table though. 1980s were a special kind of hell. I'm not going to allow a C/C+ winter in the midst of it diminish it's uniquely dark value. lol. It wasn't just not snowing - it had of way of rubbing it in for years on end

There is some partial usefulness to the notion of 'too cold to snow' ... the problem is in the application of it. The reason that was coined is because colder air holds less water vapor. That, and ... high pressure N is both a cold pattern, but can often be too much of a good thing in that it can be a surface representation of a suppressed field. That is indirectly 'too cold to snow' but is kind of a Lawyer's definition of it. If one is lazy or playing with semantics (either), saying it is too cold to snow in a cold weighty high pressure ( suppressed pattern), you wouldn't be wrong that sort of, but you'd get partial credit on the exam. Fact of that matter is, it can snow at any temperature if the dynamics are sufficient. In 2015 February ... one of those coastal storms was a cold juggernaut, and we still managed 15 to 18" of it through a 5F air mass and wind gusts to 50 mph! It was like those blue light cryo scenes over a dusky Barrow ... sorry, Utqiagvik Alaska. That storm ended at 0 F, too... flurries with blowing snow.

Wow... the MEX MOS is running 20 to 22 above climatology for D5 around the inland BDL-FIT-BED arc, for thu thru sat. Considering those machine numbers are weighted increasingly toward climo the further out in time, jesus. Check Brian - he seems to know the latest with that sort of stuff but sufficed it is to say, doing that much above, at that range, takes an extraordinary signal to push that.

Good info - I would only ask, it's not just the physically realized - as in where we are now in the growth of offsets. There are restrictions on fossil fuels being imposed upon these companies. There's no shortage of oil and coal - there is a necessity to stop using them. There is a shift toward cleaner gas(NAT) as a cleaner alternative - as part of that restriction. So yeah ... solar/wind/hydro .. these programs are small compared. But they will grow - It's the entire manifold of how the state of the system is being powered, and where that affects/effects the economics ending up in the laps of the consumer as clandestine shift - for lack of better word. I don't wanna come off as paranoid either lol. But the whole of it needs to be scrutinized. Regardless ... the cause, running a 300 $bill close to 800 for the same edifice looks like a shifting losses operation. This is a fossil fuel exit economic strategy - and at the end the day, and full disclosure, I'd rather the companies not be defended out of hand ...

I suspect this cold wave ( or "shot" ..whatever we wanna call it) in early November is useful for a more distant projection. Like Will has said in the past, "shot across the bow" I think that is portends as the autumn ages on. How much so and all that, notwithstanding or mentioned here. It's complex but the most simplified way I can say it is: -EPOs that are consistent with rising PDO o'er top RONI warm ENSO, amid a faster velocity jet tendency will smear the EPO --> PNA relay/transition both faster but more cold across the continent. Perhaps 'gradient' if I use the local vernacular ? Think of a hybrid between gradient, and shorter patter residences. I really see the models struggling with that idea in the actualized daily depictions that run over into the first week of November. Just between you and me and everyone else...if we snowed a synoptic event, even if middling and or unremarkable, during the first week of November - wouldn't shock me at all. And, if we were 75 F a week later, makes sense given these 'super synoptic' methods.

I know wow. Yeah, it is a standing wave - how else do we define that. Waves will assign a near stationary position in a streamline if the forces are closely balanced. interesting

Oh, yup. I just added that to my own post.

Yeah ..it's been doing that for over 3 weeks ...perhaps a month or even 5 weeks as far back as I can recall. I don't believe it is entirely unsuccessful in adding momentum to the system. The reason I say this is because there are observed aspect that are highly correlated to the 8-1-2 RMM spaces going on. Such as the 850 mb W wind over the east Pac and the associated TC activity there. Also, the WPO is pretty exceptionally negative... It's like it's held back but leaking dynamics You know what it 'seems' like? It seems like the wave is perhaps analogous (if not so) a standing wave.. Maybe there are about 50/50 constructive and destructive interferences in competition and things have locked ( so to speak ..). The IOD being in place is probably creating the local walker circulation doom for the wave cycling

Whatever we wanna/need to call it aside, to 99% of civility we have a spectacular series of days coming up this week. Couldn't be happier. The longer I can hold off turning on the heat in this little money pit home of mine the better. I suspect there is some chiseling going on that is not being as scrutinized/monitored (because the world is preoccupied by more imminent threat models) between these grid-scaled power companies and their relationship to suppliers. There is an ongoing shift of power generation away from bulk/macro, which is/was always reliant primarily upon fossil fuels ... blah blah, toward renewables. They are claiming that there is fuel supply shortage - that may be. But there is in fact no actual shortage in nature. The shortage - if so - is imposing because CC correction is now an imperative complexity. So ... they've jack prices espousing supply not meeting demand but that is a lie. I don't trust that. I believe these absurdly soaring monthly bills are really these company's shifting their losses, from the upsurge in renewable/rebate programs and the imperative combined, reducing their profits ... back onto the general population. F you. Sorry if it sounds socialist ...but there should really be a base grid in the telecom, and other basic social service necessities that avails to the ballast of the general population; a centralized infrastructure that the government can then work with complete control and disclosure toward renewable solutions. Then, if people want more than their/that base provision ...THAT is when they can reach out to commercial and/or privately own resources with their own revenue and pay for it. But, in the end ... even if only half right with the above 'hot take' on the 'real' cause for these soaring electrical bills, the whole of it would be ultimately self defeating for the power companies. Because ...they are going to end up igniting the fervor of the masses. En masse there will be incentives to cut them off in lieu of the renewables. The only problem with solar and other programs ... they are only dubiously affordable. From what I can tell, loaded with 'fine print' economics. These are greedy start up and or preexisting enterprises seeing the prospect and going 'cha ching cha ching' And they've already inundated this new market space with the incentive of profit. Where are the programs there for the virtuosity of saving the planet's life? This whole CC thing, real whether you want or can believe it or not (unfortunately), really is an "inconvenient truth," ironically. Capitalism cannot solve this issue - it has to be incentivized around not dying, and less about denying and/or leveraging for that way.

Yeah … I haven’t looked but just sayn’ pretty strong negative WPO index appears ready to punch across the north pacific and send the Pacific into the AB circulation mode type. That’s going to lower the global budget by a bit … so I was speaking about going forward

yeah jokes aside I think if anything the 2-m temp progs could be underdone Thursday and Friday if those 00z runs were to work out. I saw it be 79 F two days, back to back, in early November of 2020 ( after the Halloween snow that year ) to underscore an Indian Summer... We're 3 weeks before then? we can touch 80. Don't know if it will or what altostrata shit streaks times just perfectly wrongly or what else is going to do it, but +15C 850 well mixed under a low RH ceiling seems like 72F is too conserved.

Scott bitches and complains and then the GFS tries to send a marginal system through LOL

The PDO is not strongly negative ... In fact, since the leading physical drive for the PDO is SS stressing due to wind anomaly distribution, it's more likely that the 'coupled' PDO/atmospheric aspect is something other than a -PDO considering it's risen some 2 SD or more in the last 20 days.

Some years oaks can put on a spectacular crimson show... This year they look like vomit yellow around here - so yeah. any species that dodged the Septoria bullets may pop particularly vibrantly against that backdrop of baby shit beige

People are grousing lol. I'd say we've already moved the CC needle enough to damage our winters. That is, compared to those Rockwellian vibes that well-up from the catacombs of our memories to early life, in the relative sense. It's actually a testament to the rapidity in which this shit's happening. Like ... in a single life time. Those with a will to be unbiased, however successful notwithstanding ... might happen to sense that's the case: something is definitely fucked up. That all said, I don't believe winter's are FUBAR, either. There'll still be plenty of cold air around at times. There will be storms that avail of it. But there will also be storms that don't time so well, AND, I feel we've prooobably crossed a threshold in CC where these latter event profiles have silently become more frequent. Set expectations around that being the case, and let the dice roll -

Telecon spread's still hitting it pretty hard. Not willing to sell just yet. Yesterday I did an op ed discussing early Novie as a cold signal in the winter thread - those aspect/points are all still valid from what I'm seeing since. We'll see how it lines up. The above index spread ( from all sources, too) is a pretty solid canonical evolution that typically ends well for cold and storm enthusiasts from late N through F. This early in the ensuing cold season? mmm can present certain challenges to delivery. To mention, the model volatility during transition seasons ... These caveats were included. I've noticed in recent years ( since mid aughts) that these entire ensemble weighted index mode projections are more unstable than they were in the 1990s. I've seen more chunks of days where they are showing good continuity for a warm(cool) biased pattern, suddenly reverse and/or just slip a lot of magnitude from seeming no forcing too. It's rattled confidences in the technology suite a little. yup. Hypothesis: fast flow/velocity saturation with additional hemispheric scaled gradient is causing that. Add this caveat,too -

We do get storms like this in January ... In fact, over the last 5 years it's been more common than not lol

Another cycle and edging yet more impressive... That is a particularly deep signal for an extended range ensemble mean wrt to temperature anomaly/distribution signal. That's cold folks!

It's crashing ...