Typhoon Tip

I have not read the same material that you have read, scene, nor heard, when you speak of "media hype machine." However, the material I have read has actually been more reasonable than the tone your creating here. There has been smoke this thick in NYC at some point in the last 13,000 years ( though why you choose that number to make your point - not sure...), and that is axiomatically true. But that is not the issue or in question, nor have I read any authors describe this one event as being climate change caused... The contexts I have taken in are rightfully focused in the increase in frequency of this phenomenon, at global scales - meaning everywhere on terrestrial surface where fuels can burn, large scaled effusion events have been increasing in occurrence. This is no defense for the "Industrial Media Complex"

That cityscape reminds me of San Francisco in 2020

What's interesting about that plume is that it appears to be completely cut off from the source. There are no more observable smoke 'pointers' up in Canada. Not sure but it looks like its just an aggregate that may be caught in the DVM column along the back side of that cut-off vortex. It's a smoke turd in the punch bowl.

Dude, I’m saying it’s not likely I’m not saying anything else

Still what the GFS is offering is suggestive scaffolding for synergistic heat type … a different animal than just a hot day. The problem is, that’s been happening globally as a real repeating phenomenon, with increased frequency in recent years, where you have a heat modeled … all the sudden you get, something inside that gets out of control. We really have not had one of those in New England yet. It may be that we can’t I don’t know… I’ve been kicking around with the idea that our geography makes it that much more difficult. We’re just not one of the prone areas to that kind of over achieving heat bomb

Heights approaching 600 dm over the western OV and souther GL Hydrostats at or > 582 dm 2-m Ts 97-102 from 300+ hrs is ridic relative to model typology for extended range. I’ve been scoping a warm flux in 13th - 25th time span for some time and there’s indices footing but it doesn’t necessitate the GFS.

GFS again with dangerous heights ... It seems to be hyper responsive to the Pacific transmission over the last couple of runs. I suspect we're changing the pattern approaching the ides, but the GFS appears too amplified... It could correct toward 90% of the ridge, and only 60% of the weird Dakota's wild S/W mechanics, and it'd suffice the hemisphere just fine. Typical of this guidance.

You'll be sitting in a traffic jam in a semi wooded area, while the storm passes by to your NE

Yeah... we may get heat in that time range ...don't know about "big" per se. But sure, the indices give room for that. However, I don't know if we get there by way of this GFS It doesn't seem to matter what time of year, the GFS defaults to too much geopotential gradient. I've yammered about this for years - since around 2015 really. Since NCEP began churning new versions every 15 months, that these next gen global forecast system products have a problem with cumulatively gaining too much negative heights on the polar side of the westerlies. If you compare any other guidance on D10 ish ... some 60 ... 80 percent of the times, the GFS will have a colder medium N of the westerlies' core. That's why it has a progressive bias ... however subtle and/or improving it is ... It ends up with too much gradient = too much balanced geostrophic wind = unsafe wave propagation and bigger R-wave structures. That run at 12z looks like all this to me.

Abstract The sixth assessment report of the IPCC assessed that the Arctic is projected to be on average practically ice-free in September near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, though not under low emissions scenarios, based on simulations from the latest generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Here we show, using an attribution analysis approach, that a dominant influence of greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in three observational datasets in all months of the year, but is on average underestimated by CMIP6 models. By scaling models’ sea ice response to greenhouse gases to best match the observed trend in an approach validated in an imperfect model test, we project an ice-free Arctic in September under all scenarios considered. These results emphasize the profound impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the Arctic, and demonstrate the importance of planning for and adapting to a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8

Yeah, we did ... It's a matter of frequency? - the latter is accelerated in recent years. I think it takes time to sort out attribution though. I'm not sure I believe articles in mainstream Industrial Media Complex headlining ... that blame the Canadian fires on early heat wave(s) - that might be so, but unfortunately ... recent cultural decades have blown a goodly amount of base-credibility. I haven't seen that in the preprint ambit just yet. Wild fires are part of the natural order. There's bit of an irregular cyclic nature to them. There needs fuels for one. Once a region has burned... it has to refit itself. That takes successive seasons of growth and death cycles. Then, if/when seasonal antecedence sets up the favorable environment... along comes an isolate thunder clap, or PF's low rider souped-up Honda Civic being driven by a 'truly productive member of society' blaring a woofer boomin' rape rap to indifferently grind his chassis on a flinting parking lot surface ... completely oblivious, and the rest is history. There's probably a normalized distribution in time, where a region averages 1 episode for so many years...etc, when not caused by the above asshole turning into a mall for the cannabis dispensary shop... (I'm only cynical on Tuesdays) Anyway ... perhaps CC is causing, relative to region, the cyclic performance to speed up? good question

I've seen the sun down to barely discernible glowing ball from smoke at higher elevation. It was back in 2002 or 2003. I was living in Winchester, and there was a wild fire up in northwestern Quebec, and the smoke plume was narrow but exceptionally dense. It was only like 150 miles wide if that, and pretty much shut the day down to overcast shade.

Seems to be some convection calving going on upstream. Some shear, with quicker mid level flow than the instability axis producing clouds over NE NY/upstate VT, is sending a region SE that appears have been processed a little less choked.

yeah, that makes sense - just a weird situ, like Leary taking an oil lantern to the stable setting after a dry summer, in October, setting it down, and then a cow or horse kicks it over and the next thing you know ...the Great Chicago Fire back in 1871 ( so like, last year - ha). That sucker destroyed 17 thousand buildings along 70 something miles of street. Granted, 1871 proooobably had a firebox construction standard - I don't know... But that does hearken to your point about difficulty visualizing how settings make things more(less) plausible. Have to think outside the box.

Well in any case... it's not like we didn't know it was coming.

Ha ha. I was just thinking that. Like literally, 'but wait, who the hell's out there' lol

It's kind of amusing that we suffered days in the shits and it finally "clears" into a sun shut down by smoke - wah wah waaaah

Yeah ... I get it how it can happen, but that (bold) seems to be a hard sell. Slag sparks don't remain at combustion temperatures long enough to carry in the wind. Unless if fell directly on it perhaps. hm. Sometimes "accounting" can get started in equally mysterious origins hahaha. Have to validate the source I suppose. The cigarette and campfire dipshit stuff, no problem -

It may be the case ... yup. Do you have those records for the Nova Scotia region? Plus, it's a valid surmise; I just haven't heard any "official" accounting, either.

can't have both... ... or, it's less likely you will... You either dim the sun down to where we fail 5-7 F on the high. Or, you don't and you get the CAPE

strange times ... ... hard to parse out whether these are unusual, or it's that whole narrative about how technology just exposes the reality to the naive thing. So it only "seems" unusual. It's a digression ... but I'm not sure I buy that anymore.

what I thought ... but that's also a broadly defined heading, 'human activity' like a deviant shit ball for a skull with a gas can counts under that header too -

yeeeah... thought of that. But I went back and there's fires going off where there wasn't much history of that on satellite. I mean, tinder dry or not, background settings are not going to just spontaneously combust - so yeah, it has to be something. How about a 22 year old disenfranchised ugly rural Canadian hillbilly boys with gas cans and a manifold of dysfunctionally traumatic upbringing - heh I almost wonder if this eco terrorism. Haha. Unfortunately, we live in an era whence that needs to be considered.

I have a question ... has anyone heard/read of how these fires up in Canada are set? I keep waiting to hear news break about that specific and nothing.

I'd settle for any ridge in the east to satisfy the trough in the west ...like, at all - jesus. Not sure why but the large synoptic frame between the Dateline to west coast of N/A is flipped reverse around D5-7, yet the models maintain trough over the eastern Continent - like there's no forcing down stream? Not sure there ... so we're getting a PNA mode change toward a warmer signal ( with the EPO and NAO removed from contention) ... to somehow = unbalanced R-wave layout... = no warm up - okay. Seems like the models are less than organically processing to me at times. HAHA I'm wondering if/when the other shoe falls we get wholesale correction.