Typhoon Tip

haha... right - less light and colder than summer. That's my seasonal outlook. Nailed it!

It does ... but, synoptically we're draping "blue" hydrostats and gradient look like it's a page out of 1995 autumn, after 3 days of near 80? It's fairly some of both aspects. Folks should like the 00z GFS's Nov 8 thru 11th. Nice polar high takes three days to decay east, and we have this long easterly fetch anomaly pumping in "smells like snow cold rain" for eastern regions and days of snow west.

I was thinking about this last night while moaning on the couch recovering from this stupid idea I had to run out and get the Covid booster shot of Friday ... that a typical autumn correction is 20 F (high/lows) ? I mean there is probable normal correction. If it is 70F for a high, it'll be 50 for high as the set-in. Correction is really about bringing back to normal in that sense. Then it may correct again, taking it below... I think as we refer to that as "staged cool down" ... but that's really what that is in practice. This one does seem to be about double the magnitude.

I don't understand the leaf thing. I don't rake. Never have. My lawn is beautiful.

In two days they'll be scared, confused and angry flying around with their stingers just hang out

lol. I’m a very approachable dude. If you ever need something explained or whatever, more than happy.

This will never fly .. buuut, do you know that nuclear facilities in submarines generate enough power to light up a small town. When was the last time a nuclear power station, embedded within the artifice of a submarine, catastrophically failed (melt down or radiation exposure)? Not prepared to say that's never happened... I don't have the statistic in front of me. It could be an interim solution - I agree there are solutions either way, but the incentive isn't there. Humanity isn't yet connecting it's ingenuity to solving the problem ... We are still too much so embedded on the profligate/caustic side. The scope and seriousness of the climate change "holocaust" is not one that is very obvious because - as I've opined in the past - it doesn't occur to the corporeal senses - until recently, not really. Those being sight, sound, feel, taste, and smell... I've often mused in the past, these are like the UPS ports that connect our brains to reality. We down load data through our senses, and... are evolutionarily very heavy ( almost to the point of blindness) incapable of processing outside the dimensions of reality those sense create for us. This is changing .. .people are seeing heat deaths, fetid carcasses, disease, species migration, sea level rise .... etc etc... But, it's too slow, and still not pervasive enough. There need be a much bigger ballast of population being punched in the face by, other than seeing it as dystopian news entertainment going on someplace else.

I'm suspecting this El Nino may represent as a 'split hemisphere,' more coherently coupled below mid latitudes, but then considering the full latitude warm ENSO response ... leaving something to be desired. I have a couple reasons why I lean that way but it takes some "meteolinguistics" and that is apparently frustrating some readers - particularly if one simultaneously nests sarcasm along with lol. So I'll abstain for now.

What are your thoughts on the RONI science (other than a well-made pizza)

If that post was hard to understand I'm happy to explain another way. I'm actually very approachable and am usually willing to do so if asked. That said, I'm also not always serious in the way I deliver material - sometimes its whimsy. I was writing that way to kid around. Anyway, to put it differently, there is clearly a rise in occurrences that exceeded leading indicators taking place all over the world. It's a worthwhile bullet point in any seasonal outlook.

Folks may find this interesting: https://phys.org/news/2023-10-volcanic-eruptions-dampen-indian-ocean.html

Depends how cold one needs it? what do we mean by "cold" In so far as producing snow - we're already seeing daily depictions in the guidance for sufficient cold. 540 dm hydrostatics filling the continent down to 45 or 50N latitude with even marginal 850 mb temperatures means that a given location is within dynamical stone's through from getting cryo. But in this case, we are -10 to -18C at 850 across the expanse of the Canadian shield - with some run variance as to magnitude, granted - while we have -EPO loading going on ( at least during this 10 day window). However, if the interest is more focused in nailing the temperature anomaly distribution - at seasonal bulk, no less ... - yeah, that's a different animal. My own observations with the cryospheric stuff ( fwinw lol ) is that it's not so much the scalar value on any given day the field is observed, but the d(cryo) rate (as in faster recovery in this case...) seemed to show some linear correlation to mid winter -

For those that want a little more than 3 word posts re next week... Interesting from the 00z Euro cluster. There is now a more discerned signal from both the ensemble mean and operational version for vague Miller B --> NJ model cyclone. Prior run cycles merely hinted with more scatter. The 00z release emerged more coherency.. However, the GEPs and GEFs are less enthused. The GGEM operational version does generate a low/middling coastal response to the trough, however, as it attempts to rotate its axis through the bottom of the L/W. The general synoptic scaffold is consistent among all these guidance sources, which seems to leave the mechanics of the small wave scale that is embedded as the sensitivity for correction. The entire circumstance is marginal for temperatures.

Everything’s going according to plan from two weeks ago actually… This whole period of time was very well handled or anticipated just using the teleconnector layouts. Prior to the EPO you could see this whole thing happening as the natural progression over time, aft of a negative EPO burst. I’m hoping we get -EPO cyclic behavior later in the month … and it just evolves into a cold December so that we can really go anti-El Niño lol.

anyone that includes the following statement in their seasonal outlook will look and most importantly 'have been' quite savvy. 'Any given locality has increased probability during this changing climate era to observe single event precipitation results that surpasses their climatological storm signal by significant margin, even achieving a larger percentage of their entire seasonal total.' This type of synergistic phenomenon has happened too often, from summer rains to winter snows ... everywhere in the world, for too many years, not to consider as a significant impact type.

and are those really 'ladybugs' or Asian lady beetles ... the latter is an invasive species that look a goodly like the former but they are not the same.

that really is an eye-candy bomb there on that run. man - I mean, 1030mb high over Quebec with a 962 mb low passing between the islands and the BM. 68 kts of 1mb::1kt index rule later and a lot of people within turbulent mixing of the coast have no power for a long, long time.

80 here. I was even thinking bust up along Rt 2 this morning. We were completely sun shut and shut out of the shenanigans through 11am. Even had a set back shower around 10. Felt like it was happening like at me, because I really want this last warm spell before we have to fully commit to piece of shit weather that is too cool to enjoy out side, but not cold enough to snow and is utterly useless to everybody But, cleared all at once at 11:30 and the temp surged like it was July 2nd

The GGEM used to do that a lot in the early aughts. The versions of that model back in the day, like 1996 through 2005, it used to fuse TCs into cold core coastals every autumn. It was like a right of passage that heralded in the winter because although it never happened, it seemed to have a rightish idea. The patterns always turned cold around the time it was doing that. interesting... Not sure about this particular peregrination of the GFS but it smacks of that GGEM era.

right ... once in 1,000 years lol Yeah I know that's kind of a heavy handed snark there... But in all seriousness, adding the CC challenge to the notion that 1995-1996 could even get it done ( close though!), leaves me equally challenged to visualize how that could happen. plus - 'goes without saying. I've seen too many big snows in Novie/early Dec that were sandy decks by xmas nah

0 consideration from me. never happen ... if we wanna argue a .94% for, vs a 99.06% chance against, then yeah, technically not 0. Sure - dream away.

Yeah ...I wrote about an early November signal for sub climo cold in the winter thread a while ago. I left the idea of an actual event availing of it a bit nebulous, 'at a minimum a supportive atmosphere and probable initiation of LEK and upslope' It just was too early to be that specific at the time. I'm not surprised that we are seeing occasional solutions trying to turn that trough axis more neutral. In fact, two days ago, I saw that and thought 'if the Euro can just turn that sucker around the dial a little sooner we repeat the last 10 years of odd early snow shots across the bow. The Euro summarily began doing that. It may not happen that way... but the take away is that any system that passes through that synoptic framing in the first week of Novie has a chance.

It’s sounds ominous - that’s all you need to know …

I heard the sonuvabitch uses the the last shit ticket and leaves the bathroom without replacing the roll …

It’s an interesting question… How do we define insanity. Right? Really need some kind of advancing psychological philosopher… I know in a court of law there are psychological criteria that defines the difference between criminality vs criminally insane. I’m not sure “evil” is a metric in that lol