Typhoon Tip

Yeah that trough amplitude was in the 00z mean, too. I mentioned this morning that the ens means were (all 3) apparently emerging but I haven't had a chance to take in the 12z. I did see the operational GFS (ew) and got pissed. Lol

Life and actual work are preventing me from being very involved, much to the satisfaction of the collective, I'm sure... but clearly there is some sort of move by all three ensemble members toward the coast for the 8th-ish of November. The telecon spread/leading modality's are not altogether terrible, something seems more likely than not to be emerging along the M/A. There is spread (of course..) at this range so keeping an eye on it. The other issue is that it is less than clear what/if/where cold air

The Plains getting cold and dumping a blue norther into Texas, and all that is probably more normal than not down wind of a -4 or even -5 (depending on the source ) standard deviation EPO that burst forth some 10 days ago

I know - right? Look, I'll say it for the 4th time: if snow making were to be done "green" than who the fuck cares?! build a goddamn glacier. You know, logic dictates the only reason to really argue has nothing really to do with not believing in climate change, it's really about being told to stop.

Actually fertility rates are down all across industrialized societies throughout the world. I don't know if that constitutes "stop making people" ( lol ) but it is down. In fact, I've read that China is actually losing at the other end at an alarming rate. And I know the U.S. is below the 1::1 balance - in other words we're losing to more than gaining. Just adding this

Bingo! I sometimes think the "politicizing" thing has become an act of diversion from facing the real argument points.

wow that's a sweet system... Yeah, it's a bit handicapped by a slightly too warm thermal layout, but it goes from the high 990s mb all the way 975mb in 20 hours. Bombogenesis nor'easter thrashing at the coast for several hours with wind and sideways cold rain. Marginality should be monitored inland.

Yeah Scott... We were just reminiscing about some yore -worthy NJ model low events and the GFS was apparently listening in. Shave a half C off the thermal sounding and that's actually major hit in this depiction. High pressure not in the worst position for this. The attending 500 mb is in the process of amplifying so this particular interval below is about to get a jolt of dymamic forcing? as is I wouldn't even discount this.

It's probably short concern for most but for me ... this NAM FOUS grid is clad for first entry into a snow atmosphere this season. Not bad - Maybe early snow -like synoptics in recent years has sort of muted the significance. Haha, they didn't seem to parlay very well into the ensuing winters. Obviously we know there's no real correlation other than noise but it was what it was.

Yeah ...and while I'm dating myself, ha I go back to the 1980s. A lot of autumns between 1985 and 1990 had an affinity for Novie events. Those were bad years overall for winter weather enthusiasts, but subjectivity aside ... they did produce some Novie exceptions to that rule. One of my favorites was in 1986 ( but it might have been then one in 1987). A high of 52 out at Logan the afternoon before. This was prior to the dramatic variability over short duration we've grown accustomed to over the decades since; back then, 52 would seem rather incongruous with any kind of dynamic snow bomb. The sky was macro textured nearing sunset, the wind calms. Tranquil. Utterly unremarkable. But while that was the case, upstream ... a nasty torpedo jet at mid levels (just a description for a powerful wind max embedded in a S/W that actually lacks a lot of geometric curvature) with a wind max over 120kts was unzipping the sky over the southern Great Lakes. Cleveland was reporting thundersnow around 3:30 pm. It was somewhere around November 10 I wanna say but for all my protestation about my love for weather events, as well as my clear proclivity for discussion surrounding them ... I suck donkey balls at remembering dates. I am 100% certain this was November, tho. Turned on The Weather Channel like any after-school day. They were doing the Gardening Report segment, which at that time carried no meaning or purpose to the natural cosmos for me... but as it aired, "beep beep beep-beep. beep beep beep-beep" Fists grip thighs followed by my own, "OOH OOH OOH." From right to left across the bottom of the screen scrolls, "...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FROM 11PM TONIGHT UNTIL 12PM TUESDAY ..." Just typing that brings back memories, like when you hear a favorite song you haven't heard in a long while. I used to love those moments. Steeped in boredom, seems there's nothing that is ever going to happen exciting ever again, when out of nowhere those beep chimes cut through the malaise like a light beam from salvation. See, back then the culture of awareness was entirely a different reality. There wasn't any internet. There wasn't any cell phones. I think personal pagers weren't even ubiquitous just yet. The cable companies still only carried maybe 40 or 50 channels airing anything imaginable other than live news ... much less weather-related news information? TWC was the only one that carried weather-related 'drama.' Otherwise, you had to wait until 5 or 6 pm, 11pm or 7am to get updates and forecasts. So, these tickers and special cut-ins were a bigger deal, an experience that will probably never be shared again since the 1990s rolled around and put the entire world in everyone's lap - it's been drama pap on tap ever since. A ticker for winter system wouldn't even lift a chin over a shoulder by most nowadays. Anyway, Harvey Leonard ( recently retired) was a local on-air fan fav Met at the time, and he came on 5 and it was a dreamy presentation. I remember his words, if not exact to a very close tolerance of precision, "Now, you might be thinking, 'what, snow' after a high temperature of 52 this afternoon, but it appears that as this storm emerges off the New Jersey coast overnight it will rapidly intensify and trickle down just enough cold air from up N to flip a lot of the area over to a period of heavy snow..." -never forget. I awoke at 3:30 am to the sound of thunder. I could here rattling by the window at the far side of the bedroom, where the screen part of the storm window's metal frame had long since slipped it's rails and would upon occasion carry on with it when the wind blew. As I was looking that direction through the dark at the butter scotch glow in the sky the bled through, there was another flash followed by the report. That 2nd one had me out of bed and staring with gaped expression as curtains of snow, glowing from the city scape lights, waved their way over swaying silhouetted tree lines. Another flash of lightning. So, I'm getting dress as quickly as possible... I think I actually kept my p.j. bottoms on and just threw on my boots and my winter parka/hoodie and set out. The only sounds was that of snow particle on the hood and white howls of the wind as it transported heavy snow. There was only 3 or 4" at the time... but it would end up closer to 10 or 11" by the time the storm wrapped up around 10am. I believe southern Mass put up some bigger numbers than that. That was the only day in the entire 1980s I attended Acton Boxborough Regional High School where municipal would call it quits and phone in a snow day. Funny ... if a hockey rink dumps their Zamboni slush out back of the facility these days surrounding townships seem to call in snow days as if were a nuclear waste disposal accident. There was another one similar to that.. These are quick hitters, "New Jersey model lows" they used to be called in AFDs back in the day. They tend to come down as Alberta Clipper type lows. Some do and some don't have more obviously sexy storm vitals while diving SE over Chicago - this one with the Cleveland thunder snow apparently did. But as they bottom out over the Ohio Valley and then immediately next ... their nose of dynamic power sniffs the baroclinic powderkeg along the Eastern Seaboard ... boom! Whatever they may have lacked, they can go from a limited satellite presentation to an explosive baroclinic leaf in a matter of short hours. I guess if we want to be technical, Dec 2005 was one of these on 'roids. 1989 there was a biggie around Thanks Giving, but that one may have been a more full latitude type of storm genesis - different total spatial aspects.

Going by these NAM numbers … we enter a snow column staring in 30hrs

Curious about the difference between the antarctic “heat wave” wrt the rest of the planet. In other words removing that weird winter they had down there. Probably not a lot. So much of this energy surplus has to be coming from that oceanic sst spike everywhere, all seas in every direction all latitudes north and south atmosphere included. Water holds more energy than air etc. etc.. The fact that the whole planet just up and started glowing all at once, from the Antarctic to the sea south of the Aluetians to the north Atlantic to the Indian Ocean …all of it… strikes me as a real phenomenon that needs to be investigated. That really needs to be understood possibly as an imperative. It’s just the “fuzzy logic” of warming over the south polar region happening in tandem with all these other regions that don’t directly effect one another. Really is tremendous fertility for science-fiction thinking … But strikes me as at a minimum, there might be something that interconnects the whole planet, lesser known geophysics - perhaps in the synergistic space - that can be triggered

You could see this as a correction in the week leading up to the Buffalo Bomb last December.

Like I said ... if we can load the slopes with artificially produced snow without adding to the carbon footprint... go nuts man

The the bigger point ( not seen by too many in society ) is that just but everything inside the industrial bubble can ultimately be traced to pernicious advance on the natural order - 250 years into this dependency ... the "tumors" are starting to become noticeable. Those aren't my calculations by the way.

Actually ...you're kinda right (bold). But in terms of orders of magnitude, ideally, we curb the biggest offender industries first. We'll be able to power iphones and lights. Cars are a problem. All this shit we're dealing with when it comes to the climate stuff began within 50 years of the Industrial Revolution and has been mathematically shown to be true. You can disagree with that fact - good luck. I won't stop anyone from their beliefs. We are over a tenability threshold anyway - so it's kind of moot point. People can play the not in my lifetimes card all they want, the species' continuity loses the hand. There are 8 billion people on the planet. If 90 some% of them understood the reality and curbed the way they sequester energy ( other than burning fossil fuels or any other means that released CO2, methane etc..), the remaining 10% is still plenty enough to make it too late; our species and countless others have the population correction. We are in a race against (time, negligence, disrespect of the issue)/3 = "X"... Climate change is apparently moving faster than the rate of change in X. That means ... CC wins that race. Humanity made the Faustian deal with technology in 1850, and now we are trapped. We are going to have to innovate cures for the crisis that will move faster than the crisis. ... or the crisis wins.

Other solid posters have been pushing that sentiment. Could be true ... Not to be contrarian but I suspect what's really going on is that there is too much attempt to see the present shenanigans of the system as ( coupled + assigning pattern order)/2 = both ways? Problem with that is, the atmospheric system moves like water in that it will always do so via the pathway of lowest resistance. creating NINO and NINA, simultaneously ... doesn't intuitively or logically seem to satisfy that. It's more like that there isn't much coupling at all and it may at times (thus) just look one way or the other.

Yep, modest cross-guidance support for cold. If we wanna get a snow event out of early November climatology, this look isn't a bad canvas. No promises of course - (edit: it's more the spatial orientation of the flow than it is in the numerical teleconnector - for now)

I get the sentiment but I'm not really ready to think that CC is effecting the GFS by a whole month before I'm willing to bet the GFS is just getting better. There's been like 4 model updates since 2018. LOL funny the way that was snuck in that post though. Seriously though, this was a very impressive -EPO burst over the last 10 days. The subsequent cold roll-over across the continent as we near the entrance to the solar minimum months of the year is not entirely a bad fit for that index modality. That's a marginal wet snow event depicted there on Novie 11. I've seen enough fun NJ model lows throw down thundersnow on or around that date to know that's not really unprecedented.

How so? Information I provided is based on empirical data, JD. Honestly, there’s some things you need to learn how to accept because based on actual measured data, and the implications to the climate is real whether you believe it or not.

PNA looks neutral out there towards mid month though, but I’m not sure that’s going to matter as much ?if? the EPO does another negative burst - we could end up with something like a split flow under a cold Canada if/when that combination of telecon

It’s not a bad way to look at it actually… … seems we are trying to establish a tendency to oscillate between a neutral and a negative EPO phase state. That high latitude “cresting” reflects that.

If they can find a way to make snow without having a carbon footprint problem, then no problem.

Not sure what Forky’s motivation is for that resentment… but snow making has become immoral. No sympathy from me. It’s a particularly bad look when you consider how little of the population actually skis. Much to the possible chagrin of the people that are involved in the discussion you are a minority. The problem is it’s a gigantic expenditure of energy and a massive carbon footprint to appease a very very small segment of the population, when it does not benefit anything but an ephemeral entertainment pleasure, yet will cost tremendous to the ecology. Here, Phys.org: “The first-ever national study to assess the impact of developing artificial snow shows the pressure the process is putting on the climate, with the equivalent of nearly 17,000 homes' worth of annual energy needed to produce snow for yearly ski operations in just Canada alone. Publishing their findings in the journal Current Issues in Tourism, experts from the University of Waterloo, in Canada, and the University of Innsbruck, Austria, found 130,095 tons CO2e are needed to produce the estimated 42 million cubic meters of machine-made snow in Canada in an average winter. For context, this is comparable to 155,141 acres of forest for one year sequestering the comparable amount of carbon.”

I’ve mentioned this a couple of times here or there, but my personal research on that shows that it’s really the magnitude of the delta recovery more so than the scalar value or observation of cryosphere, during the 45 days of October 15 to December. That correlates to favorable weather patterns over our side of the hemisphere as we get deeper into the heart of winner. Keeping in mind, there are no 1::1. correlations out there