Typhoon Tip

The winter fantasy thing isn't without a modest amount of pragmatics, actually. That is a winter pattern. It's just set upon a canvas where the heights and thicknesses are about 30 dm higher than ... what we used to experience IN winters before we sold our souls with the currency of Satan's blood - oil. But that's 'sides the point Seriously though, that is. It's good to take note of that Euro ( 06z GFS caved into that look considerably, too -). The usefulness is working out the rust and lubing up the tracking gears. In the heart of the winter - I'm going be concerned about gradient saturation and too much velocity in both ambient westerlies, but also how much the atmosphere converts that wind abundance into actual wave propagation speeds/mechanics. The latter's been a shearing tendency in recent years with this problem...

Snow by Halloween ( yet again ...) isn't just a GFS operational fantasy. There are non-zero useful predictive metrics that signal what's become ( what I think - ) a recurrent autumn facet of CC during these early 20 ... 50 years. And that's a tendency to fold the flow over continents earlier than normal. There is so much latency of heat below 50 N around the hemisphere that the physical instant the Boreal winter season heights begin to fall, there is a subtle but all important stronger than normal jet response. The western aspects of continental geology then bends the flow into ridging potential, ...which during years whence there is a +PNA tendency, together creates a non-linear but very real constructive interference. Boom! Early cold synoptic interludes. I certainly would not recommend wiener-ing oneself over these extended GFS solutions. However, I would definitely warn that everything ( plausible above) is in play and test. This is going to happen in autumns going forward - op ed. This is also new climate tendency/paradigm that does not fit into traditional ENSO this, or polar index that. Those index modes may or may not be favorably coincident - when they are/not, there's constructive or destructive interference, respectively. But it's very hard to parse out contribution from either. This year, I would watch for +PNA mapped over top this 'folding tendency' ... Then as specific events materialize during those last two weeks of October ... we then deal with "model magnification" - in fact we're probably already looking at that in those fantasy range GFS looks.

haha.. 00z Euro spanning next weekend takes all the shittiness quotient of all these bad weekends, extracts their essential oils, and brews up flavor of shitness 10X's more repugnant than any of them...

I studied it for 10 years and I found there was a definite positive correlation with the d(d(cryo). In other words rate of change, more than if it is adding at all. The problem is I had to stop because the land snow entry times were pushing later in the year. Some were mid way through all of September before the snow accelerated in land coverage which skews the data set toward irrelevant if I have wait until the f month of October itself. There may still be a correlation ... in fact I suggest there is. But I haven't bothered to slide the time range to include more of late October and November, which are already (technically) too late and intra-cold season above 65 N. The purpose of the analysis was "leading" indicator.

True ... however, these planetary spikes predated those theorized geo mechanics. Right? I'm pretty sure this all began at the tail end of February and particularly throughout Mar/Apr. This was before OHC was in any kind of coupled state where it would. Meanwhile, the N Atlantic above the tropics flashed warm - 'what does that have to do with OHC from the tropical Pacific that doesn't exist yet?' It doesm't line up very well temporally. I was discussing this in the climate forum. It appears ( by observation alone) that there were concurrent phenomenon taking place. One unknown ( above), with one known - this latter of which may yet add its juice to the punch.

Still ... for me, I like seeing the 540s hydrostats atop -2C at 800 mbs arriving on the NAM/FOUS grid. Hearkens the spirit of the season.

Managed 81 here... Fog slowed matters earlier but we seemed to have made up some ground

Yeah, this synoptic evolution incoming is completely new ... Should not be confused or compared, or assumed to be a part of the stagnated wet/humid/warm persistence of the last 90 days. This is a wholesale new pattern orientation that is setting up because of an obtrusion of +PNA. The restructuring of the pattern is taking place with rapidity, and this storm that winds up over Ontario and the colder regime coming in underneath and all that, is completely uncharted waters. Anyway, the behavior of this isn't like a slow moving trough along 90W with a persistent PWAT delivery. It's more like an active frontal boundary that is tipping negative but will progress quickly through. It may rain hard along an axis (est Berkshire/Greens) but it's outta of there probably in 4-6 hours maybe faster. Showery everywhere else. I'm actually wondering if we may see a low top ribbon echo squall or broken feature thereof, with some heftier wind gusts. There may also be a wind burst in the back side as the pressure well deepens and cuts W and sends an undebelly restoring force across NYS and C/NNE. I've seen louder signals for that, but there is some look about this.

I will say that I lean a lot of ballast in the direction of RONI studies ... Perhaps a personal bias for the fact that I conceptualized something quite similar many years back. That said, it's probably got blurred forcing boundaries. Thresholds here and there, that have to be estimated, or less than discrete in general. Who knows? Right.... like, 20 ... 30% of the ENSO warm legs are chopped off, because ENSO is wading in a pissy world already ... making a 7' monster more like a 6'2" tall guy. What's funny is that the 6'2" guys tend to actually jump the highest - ... fun metaphor.

Too much attempt to target specific oceanic regions as causal in x-y-z pattern tendencies. This is now a relatively new faux methodology that's coming about in social media and Tweets from big reputations, and it's not right. Perhaps not the intent, ... but it sure comes off that way. If we wanna really skeptic as scientist ... the whole flapping oceanic planet is +1.2C on average or whatever it was as of last check. Pretty much in every direction and region, save for small seemingly irrelevant cool offset upweller chimneys. And that would seem intuitively a big red flag not to trust any of it - worth of empirical test and geo-physical review.

This appears to be a pan-dimenson hemispheric scaffold change. Every index from Japan to Greenland is connected to it, and the PNA is the most telling. It is correcting from -1 to almost +3 SD in a matter of mere days. To mode switch a domain space that size that quickly is highly unusual. Some sort of correction event in the heart of the winter would be dialed up by either a series of imports, or ... one giant ordeal. ... In early October, this is unfortunate for storm enthusiasts. The ambient baroclinicity is absent given to seasonality. We may plumb truck loads of 500 mb potential into the 100 to 90 W longitude with limited means to really drill it into the lower troposphere. There is some attempt on the first in the series that gets tangled up with Phillipe's guts. The GFS in particular goes from 990s to 970s mb drifting west of Toronto.. btw, I'd watch for a backside isallobaric wind burst when that bag of low pressure bombs exiting N across C/NNE in GFS recent solutions. Euro's been tamer.

It's probably dietary/metabolic ..which can be related to hormonal changes beyond mid life but its just as likely the Americana/western civil diet needs to be fixed.

haha... sounds important!

Man...that whole 500 mb period between D6 and the end of this operational GFS is like blocking assignment rehearsal for a winter play. Hopefully that repeats after Thanks Giggedy

I want it like today, until after Halloween. Then it can whoop ass winter all it wants ...

We've been getting over top high pressure over the past 3 weeks. Heh... only trouble is, at 560+ hydrostats

There really is a very big HA signal ( I wonder how she feels to know her initials are codified haha) ... Typically, that signal is more correlative in winter ... It's not only not winter, but it is early in autumn in a warmer than normal world - bit of an intriguing incongruency there. That said, there is multi-guidance/ensemble derived whopper +PNA whiplash hemisphere coming at the end of this week. A big restoring event might materialize despite the seasonality of the correlation, just because the shear magnitude of the PNA modality is so huge (supposition). The Phillipe aspect is an add-in, but it's not really what this hemisphere is going to be about. More like a mouse that happen to run across a path intersection with an angry elephant stampede.

2 possibilities... 1 it stays weak and exposed and coughing up a CB once in awhile. This may allow it to get farther west and sneak under the steering level. Then, the trough amplifying suddenly from the northwest attempts a Sandy gobble in. But it would probably by more a rain thump and wind on the E side of NE Maine. Too specific, though 2 it still responds to steering and starts moving more N. In this version ...it doesn't get west of 70 W - not without a wholesale change in the deep layer tropospheric vectors.

It's 85 and dry-ish... I don't think we had a temperature this warm and a DP this low, together, since May... Doesn't seem so, anyway. And that's what sucks. 80 to 85 with DP of 58 is like utopian. 85/74 with roads that can't even dry in the shade because of all that atmospheric loaded water ... and high temp no less, may as well have pig's testicles draped around one's neck. So this happens at the very tail end - not to be a debbie but that kind of blows. sorry it does.

Unlikely.

yeah you can see why the Euro's numbers are robust... IF its synoptic bare any resemblance to that. R/entrance jet over eastern-upstate NY with exceptional divergence vectors with an arriving 850 mb PWAT jet running up it's ass. Someone along the spine of the Greens might redux what happened earlier in the year.

Been warning, yup... It's weird, though, to see a typhoon careen west through the lower China Sea, a stymied MJO bouncing off a wall trying to emerge in 8, ... while the PNA surges to a very high metric...? The first two correlate. The 3rd does not correlate with the first 2.... Given the spatial domain (girth of mass fields) of of those manifolds, that argues for an unstable hemisphere. Interesting

Sneaky best diurnal d(T) of the year and possibly longer... At least for me - was not expecting mid 40s last night ( tho ORH above the radiation inversion stayed at a relative toasty 53). But it's 83 here at the moment, closing in a 40 F spread. KFIT 46 to 81 so far

Yeah...seems the operational versions ( Euro too - ) are attempting to counter-signal their own ensemble means. interesting - I did warn folks that there may be some 'model magnification' going on. There was speculation about upslope snow in the extended but I figured it would depend on whether there was that amplitude bias commonly found in the D8+ range. That all said, the trough depth and colder implication could come back, but this tendency for 'moon rise' ballooning the features out at the temporal horizon is like that in all guidance - I think it's an unavoidable emergence of the technology at this point.

I've read of speculation that a kind of whip-lash at planetary scales (... like 'thermal elasticity') recoiled when the La Nina basal state crossed some threshold on its way to its demise. And then en masse the entire system snapped very warm. I don't know if I like that hypothesis. I don't hate it ... but, I don't see how that happens mechanically. It certainly sounds intriguing from a kind of Science Fictional passage along a holocaust theme. There are no mechanisms in the atmospheric 'organic' mechanics to generate/add heat as such. Heat has to be either given or taken through the evaporation/condensation of water vapor, or, through irradiance power of the sun. The sun spends equal time on either side of the Equator. Evaporation and condensation is effected by heat, but in either case, that state is static relative to the rate in which these global temperature surges took place - that doesn't seem to add up. It's really weird... My immediate napkin logic wants to suggest that the El Nino is buried inside these changes that have been observed over these last 9 months - and by buried, I mean subsumed by them. In other words, not the cause. The last time there was a global temperature response that 'seemed' to be connected physically to a warm ENSO that even comes close to these last 9 months, was 1998 ( a "super nino" event). But here's the thing ... that global spike in temperatures lagged the ENSO peak by some 6 months. If using just the SST metric, according to CPC, the 1997-1998 El Nino peaked around November/Dec of 1997; the thermal resonance was noted in the spring of 1998. The warmth we are observing all over the planet, air and sea, predates the onset of the El Nino. That's why I wonder if the current arriving mode of ENSO is really driving this warmth at all. It seems the warmth we have seen materialize since May has/is engulfed any El Nino to the point where geo-physically parsing out how much is contributory to how much is tantamount to not likely to be determined with a whole helluva lot of confidence. The causality/circuitry would have to include too much supposition for certitude. OR, here's an idea... there is indeed a separate systemic response that has caused all this warming, and the ENSO has yet to add too it.