Typhoon Tip

It's interesting ... these models ( all of them) appear to be seeing the +d(GLAAM) state of the subtropics in allowing this next 'flurry' of MDR activity to deliver one into positions so far west across the Basin. Indirectly, our incoming dry period of days with positive temperature anomalies ... really is part of all that. The same super synoptic scale forcing that's altered the pattern for this new paradigm, is also what sets up the Basin to allow a TC to evade recurving earlier... Anyway, that all said ...and assuming we find ourselves with a well-formed entity passing through the climate key-slot lat/lon (no less) like the models are suggesting, there would be work that needs to be done with the particulars between the Great Lakes and NF. The circulation mode isn't right. There's plenty of time though.

it's a fun time of the year for us dorks ... I mean, the 00z 850 mb layout across this side of the hemisphere increases in 0C integral by a factor of 2 or 3, above the 70th, by the time it's out to D10.

oh. ha. helps to look at more recent guidance; the Euro's 00z apparently abandoned that. makes sense ...

So y'all not spectin' any influence from that weird trough/capture of Idalia corpse routine the Euro was drilling west toward the coast, then? Not snarkin'; seriously askin; I suggest no myself, but it was an interesting retrograde/ quasi loop behavior for so high in latitude. If that were to take place, we get CD'ed east of 91

47 was the low.

Not sure what the “standard sauce” is In the old climate eh hm ..between the 15th of august and the end of the month we normally clean house with one of these and plumb the 40s at night. If the shoe fits. Sep this is 60s. Oct this is upper 40s. That said … the old paradigms are vanquished … or more and more, seems to be.

18z GFS went warmer again by total synoptic manifold. Just heard that this was the first August since 1986 that Central Park failed a 90 degree reading. It would be a muse if Sep went the other way

Weak sauce shot across the bow.

I think that’s more mid Novie to early Jan but don’t otherwise disagree.

Too many small favorable domain spaces cut off from one another. Interspersed with broken steering channels and sometimes shear. I'm not liking it

I like how the 00z Euro finagles a way to prevent SNE from getting hot from those synoptics next week, but taking the something/anything method of approach. lol - It take Idalia's guts... reinvigorates and does a loop SE of the Cape and parks it there so that the warmest 850s' never really get east of the Hudson.

LOL, yup... I think it is poetically fitting as a violent disapproval for summer... Pretty significant failure ( being silly here of course...), then underscored by +20C 850s being well mixed, after Met summer officially ends. haha. But more seriously though, there's some use to defining 'when the corner is turned' so to speak. And it's not so much the scaler value of the temperature, but it's really more like a whole appeal. This air mass is in fact this cool because the hemispehre is tipping away. A month ago, this is 7 warmer ...so to speak.

shot before the shot across the bow air mass ... felt almost nippy on the open-toed shoes and shorts this morning. Coolest/dries it's been since prior to the June stench pattern ... that went on to claim the entire summer... This air mass ear-marks the end of summer for me. It does... despite whatever warm signals moving forward, those are henceforth autumn anomalies to me. This statement may inflame certain warm-biased participants, understood - what can I say... No offense intended. Time to adult reality

as though they want/need it - it should be without passion.

the inevitable ridge shirking has begun

Not sure where to put this .. https://phys.org/news/2023-08-additional-earth-due-air-quality.html

MJO looks like it wants to enter a destructive interference with warm ENSO ... who knows how instrumental it will be in modulating matters over the ensuing week(s).

yeah... tru - the floor is dropping

Should pass pretty quickly from frontal scunge/murk and wet, right into sun as there's a pretty clearly defined back edge to the baroclinic axis entering western CT/MA ... I like days like that, provided that happens before say 4 pm... It's interesting how different the day will be at 5 compared to where it "was" at 10am when that happens.

Still not completely sold on a solid uninterrupted span of hot days... By hot I mean 90+ .. but obviously 87/72 gets the job done... I guess indirectly, "where does the front end up" The ridge is kind of flat. It has nodes of 594 ( in itself interesting that we are still raising the roof of the troposphere that high, this late, so frequently in guidance ... let's ask CNN why. LOL ) ... below the westerlies. But there are S/W running along S Canada which can easily correct SE once east of 90W. I think we're good for a 2-day stint at interesting heat though.

or Camille

Since this will be the first cat 3 or 4 in that region is it cuz of global warming ?

They should go ahead, throw hands, and name one of these, ‘Darwin’ There’s a CNNer for em, “Darwin targets rural Americana gulf folk, y’all” Officials take the wrong delicate touchy feely tact. They shouldn’t warn and impose evac … they should say next of kin are responsible for bloated corpse retrieval fees for when your own frozen assets can no longer cover the cost of clean up.

Maybe Opal, too actually Opal was 95

Yeah … no doubt. My snark was aimed at CNNs headline rabble rousing lol. They take NWS statements like never in that region …and convert it never in your life life life