Typhoon Tip

Haven't seen the 12z GFS ...and tossing ICON After spending time looking over this stuff ... I don't believe we will have as many ptype contentions as much as the guidance cinema et al are cute with, if that blend of the 00z GGEM/Euro were to work out - the course of lesser regret. This thing will get a toehold on "cold momentum" prior to dawn on Tuesday, and then the juggernaut dynamics of this particular example of closing mid level centers (a burst of core UVM/frontogenics from 850 to 700 mb from T crashing in the deep layer) over top, will take a 38/30 type entry temp and obliterated down to 31.9/31.9 Willamantic CT to Bedford MA in quick work, ... while a lot of formed weather forecasts are dinking around with rain changing to snow timing tedium. This might be a situation where too much technology actually obfuscates matters, when just a -4 850 mb thermal layout/event entry along said axis, then processing under close mlv centers SE of said axis, is plenty from orbit - for me anyway...

Seriously...what was hard to understand about that - highlight/bold what you don't get and I will reword it

It may be okay ... ...I was mentioning to Ray a bit ago that all the 00z majors ( save the UKMET) seemed a little light on QPF, relative to everything about the way this looks... Part of the warm hesitation inland - I suspect - is related to missing some fall rates in particular, the GGEM/Euro 00zs (I'm tossing the 06 Euro don't see any compelling reason that needs to be included) . But even just 15 or 20% failure to penetrate precipitation mechanics around the NW arc could certainly hesitate finding that -0C isothermic profile in the BED-Willamantic zone. Perhaps being closer to core, gets us there without going too far -

Again.. still back here on page 86 ... But may I just comment to this (bold) notion ? I've been thinking about this performance-wise with the guidance this year. It seems they have been worse overall. This has not lent to "honking" ( haha) at a 96 hour range. Personally, ...I have honked at 120 and been successful for my praises, more so than failed to promote my own reputation ( to put it nicely) in the past. Not. This. Year. I just wonder if some that reticence to commit to an idea at 84 hours out ( I mean c'mon, right?) is recent conditioning by relentlessly shaky performance; a bit short compared and more like 20 years ago modeling standards. Incidentally, we are right in the window when March 2001, the ( at the time ) AVN version of the MRF ( the genetic background of the GFS) pulled the plug on the Mid Atlantic. Has anyone noticed how the snow fall layout with this is kind of trying to mimic that March 2001 result ( modeled) ? It seems to want to lay down a W-E glacier that steps up abruptly from the S coast to interior sections, much in the way that one did. Interesting...

I noticed this about all the majors ( save for the UKMET ...which is questionable whether it's JV or V in my mind, to use Will's humor) overnight. (I'm way back here on page 85, so may ensue responses to moot points for the next 1/2 hour LOL!) Anyway, both the GGEM and the Euro, with their nearly collocated solutions ( save for petty differences in pressure depth and anal retentive lat/lon anchoring that wouldn't matter) were both interestingly less in QPF penetrating into the deeper interior, considering synoptic awareness with straight climatology. Part of that synopsis requires noting the PWAT distribution - getting a little more detailed. It almost smack as though the GGEM and Euro's bomogenesis pulled the field metrics, inward - Mainly discussing the 00z/blend of those two... The GFS I did not include wholesale, and really haven't yet - I do not believe at this time, nor have I from the beginning, that this is a scenario that fits the GFS machinery and thus could not be trusted. The 06z finally appears to erode its bias dimming enough to shine through a beam of reality light. I think a slower pattern with blocking this, and lower isohypses ( height line ) counts ( signaling "relaxed flow"), while still embedding S/W with enough mechanics to power cyclogenesis, is exactly where the GFS exposes it is worse than the Euro - it's physics just add velcoity to the flow... There's a dissertation's worth of discussing details that could be rendered for this things ... best just to piecemeal it for the Twitterspheric attention span of 2023, however ... haha

pos run actually.

That’s part if it

Meanwhile … the PNA being relatively low amplitude fits that noisy Pac description … there is a mode change, but it’s really more like a mode relaxation. It rises from about -2 standard deviations to neutral slightly positive which is significant, but I would suggest if that arc were more substantially positive, you might see a better sloped trajectory as the flow approached the western North America bulge, and that might alleviate some of that weird wave spacing/contention in the model handling Chris was describing. La Niña circulation type hangover ftl

Oh this is a discerned difference in the total wave space handling across the hemisphere on the 18z run. It's effecting the evolution of this thing toward an entirely new direction - or attempting to. The vortex is moving along a trajectory now that is more akin this thing tonight and tomorrow - hints at doing that. It moves WNW to ESE straight over the area, looks really nothing like the 12 run that "fishing gaffed" negative tilted slice, which gave the total wave space down ---> up latitude positioning. Not sure what to make of it all - but it's new type of evolution coast to coast.. The western ridge is flatter ...deceptively so, and is more progressive... It's like this run decided it couldn't stand it and went running back to it's stretching bias.

This scenario is so marginal that a 1/2 deg variation would certainly make that a valid case ..and since it can't be excluded from happening at this range and all considerations notwithstanding, it's a valid take. He did say, '...may change'

EPS probably doesn't reflect that kind of antic ... It's a pretty gnarly continuity hiccup so ... meh... doesn't really factor as much for me personally. I rather like the GGEM/GFS et al of then, now moving a deepening 500 mb center under RI latitude... That sticks out more to me

I suspect you will in the end ( shhhh )

I honestly can't blame you ... I don't normally condone 86ing inclusion of any model ... but I really keep coming back to the subtle progessive bias of the GFS, which is noted by NCEP et al, as being instrumental/most like why it it is consummately orchestrating this thing to shallower dynamics - which of course feeds back negatively on all synoptics inherent to cyclogenesis. It can't have deep dynamics and still be hell bent of stretching, so it takes some percentage away...

I'm behind ..and trying to catch up to the end of hall that seems to be running away like a nightmare... haha but just as Will and I have been pointing out, this shows ... a little increase in that ridge ( more w-e than n-s but there is some of both ...) and the N stream is set upon a slightly farther E dive. very critical in a scenario with ass vomit polar rot for air massing

Late to the ball game this morning but just took a look at the ICON model... Jesus christ. Has a coveted seldom seen 'magenta' band ( muah hahahaha) up and down the Worcester hills..

What is the RGEM's domain region ? I'm wondering since the N stream isn't relayed in just yet ( or is it? ) ?? They're supposed ( I thought ...haha) to be relayed by the global runs around there domain termini but I was told that on the fly at some point - seems reasonable but I don't know if that's fact.

The '97 parent wave space was a 'bowler' ... this is entirely a different deep layer evolution. It's a subsume scenario - I drafted annotation to point out those differences, now scrolled into the oblivion ... The only similarities this may have to that is the marginal thermal constraints. But if that were the only metric, every spring event is an analog...

It depends on the precise morphology of the total wave length spacing... I mentioned late last evening when I was vaguely conscious with sleepiness ... that the western ridge needed to be more so... but, I had the following popsicle headache aspects in mind when making that drive by posting: The ridge in the west can get more amplified, but it doesn't have to be in the Y coordinate. It could do so in the X-coordinate, in which case the N/stream subsuming wave would arrive on a shallower azimuth. The ridge could amplify in the Y-coordinate alone, which is akin to a shortened wave length and that would dictate a further west dive like you're intimating. These spatial geometries are critical in where this thing bottoms out. While all that is happening, the entire super synopsis could be moving E.. just to add another series of vector calculus to this whole thing.

I would love to see a frontogenic product/chart as those heights are implode into a black hole... ha I mean it's gonna generate it's own meso complex with that much temperature crash at mid levels. Interestingly ...the 300mb + sigma levels don't really have the classic "diffluent fan" running down stream, however, this thing does close off at that level.

Need more ridging in the west.

This ICON reigns in the start of the 0Zs looking deeper with the N stream at 66 hr

Maybe crazy sounding to say … particular given the conditioning we’ve suffered unrelenting since … 2015 really. But objectively it appears the higher amplitude guidance renditions will be more correct than the lower.

That's typically the case with cut off/fire hose events... The SE zone take the brunt of what falls and the snow region actually melts down to less. Normal

Going back many cycles in mind's eye... I don't recall if there was ever one where no model offered d-drip doses. There's always one that's not allowing us to drift away from this .. pure evil man. lol The UKMET has 30" then fades, but look out! Here comes the ICON ...or the Euro ... There really is just about zippo operational version consensus. Only that there's a system passing through

Nothing campaigns spring like 504 dm hydrostats down to Pittsburgh PA on March 25th... not sure, though, how much of this is just the GFS non-responsive to the seasonal forcing - I've sort of sensed this since the era of rapid version upgrades ...going back about 5 or 7 years. I realize that's 384 hours so has 0 real value, but I'll be watching for the GFS' incompetence to sense the hemispheric changes and fighting it. Obfuscating matters ... I suspect that a general colder and stormier profile to the pattern may persist though to the 20th anyway.