Typhoon Tip

Yeah... who knows - specific perceived and/or legit errors with instrumentation, notwithstanding. right - Still, the degree/scale of actual negative anomalies was [likely ] not as deep as perceived. Personally? I find it interesting that it was negative at all, when the baseline [argumentative or not -] appears to lean positive as a result of CC.

I wonder if anyone in your tribe suffers gout ?

Yeah that coastal region of Maine up there is getting bum packed by flow off the Gulf ..

yeah...I started the July thread with some discussion about this first two weeks. There's a modest heat signal toward the end of week 1 ( ~ 7 .. 9th). Later on in the long range, 'hints' for something more. The over-arcing theme though is not like where we were during much of June. In fact, the last 6 or so days of the month were all neutral to modestly above normal. I suspect that continues into the first 10 or so days of July, either way. I also like having the ambient summer gradient oscillating near by. So TCU production should around from time to time.

One upshot to this next week or two is that having the ambient summer front sort of wobbling around the eastern continent at our latitude should service occasional convection chances... And severe or just mundane, notwithstanding. This may offer some episodes of entertainment that way.

The question is... how summery will it be? June left something for warm/season enthusiasts to be desired. But not as bad as some may think ... (speaking to the straw man ). Monthly mean as of this morning, June 30, were only very modestly cooler than normal, as provided by NWS' interactive online resource ( https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=box) ... ALB, (omitting decimals) -1 F -.4 for ORH. -.9 for HFD. BOS was -2 and PVD was -4. Boston(Logan), I suspect was more a result of a persistent on-shore flow anomaly. Providence may also have a combination of SEterly anomalies, together with instrumentation issues. As a very brief op-ed, climate change affects our 'acclimation curves' ... Basically, we perceive months that are actually not that too terribly far from normal, as being more negative than they really were - because we are over the longer span now more prepared/bias to 'feeling' a certain way in our common experience. I find this sort of an interesting psychological hypothesis for how weather and climate impacts perception... Anyway, looking at July ... the canonical warmest week of the year is this month ... roughly centered on the 21st. The next week to two weeks look different than where we've been. There is still a tendency to oscillate between troughs and ridging, but the troughs are not stagnating as much per guidance trends and other indicators ( ..the latter of which won't get read if this is written too long ). Just adding that the entire synoptic framework is also situating higher in geopotential hgt depths, which doesn't lend to CAA events very readily. Much of this should result warmer than normal, and more humid ... but it is unclear how extreme either will be - pistol to head, not very extreme with the temperature side for the time being. There is some hints that more important heat will materialize toward the end of the first week and throughout the 2nd week, but it's just hinted.

Not when you posted earlier - there is more now...

00Z this last Wed 336 hours from 12z this morning in the operational GFS ... Hard to knock persistence, huh ... That's what you call a stuck pattern -

There isn't much smoke in the area right now. there is however a band of clouds that's a bit denser running N-S over your region - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Front came through just in the last 1/2 hour. wind around to WSW though very light. Temp down to 70/68 after being 75/72 all day with intermittent sun steam followed by thunder. We're really racking up an impressive convection summer so far. Granted nothing severe ...at least here. But, I've counted 13 thunderstorms in my vicinity in the last 4 days alone. Stops raining... sky gets dark all over again... heavy rain with rumbles...moves on...rinse repeat

NOAA should just create a headline called "Apocalypse" and give the present status a Watch

that sounds like a - stroke actually. Impressive though.

Just happened here... Most likely a very powerful positive CG. There were 5 evenly spaced, rapid pulsed very loud pop sounds, followed by the main percussive sonic explosion... then fading booms along with that effect of the sound waves echoing off in the distance. Within just short moments my buddy texts me, 'hey bro, you just almost got nailed!' .. But the actual strike map placed it a little over a mile away. Weird. I'm wondering if there was a leader in the area where I am, and the main channel hit at the other location - hence the pops... btw, sun was shining when that happened

This gonna be an interesting battle as summer slams into winter's cache - A significant warming trend Friday through the holiday weekend will lead to more rapid snowmelt in the high Sierra which will enhance already high runoff along the east slopes of the southern Sierra into the Owens Valley. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Yesterday that generality (10 days..) looked vacant of any excessive heat, and still does. But was suggestive of daily thunder ... sometimes widely scattered, some days more pervasive, the whole way. As of this morning (since) ... neither really. There's more like a chance of showers every 36 hours, with dry conditions amid summer banality of temperature in between. Boring is the best way to put it. Not much 'entertaining' about average highs in elevated lows from unremarkable DP elevation, and only at worst middling convection. I don't see a lot of continuity in that day-to-day model performance, though. I also don't see much in the way of any kind of pattern coherency - probably why the former. Typically in summer we lose coherence as you know, but this is really bad. There's virtually 0 correlative usefulness with telecons - not merely seasonally reduced. The operational runs are decoupling from their ensemble means about every 3rd run or so. It's like, can the Earth maintain a health ecosystem without any weather pattern? - that's actually an interesting question. Meanwhile, have we ever seen such a vast area under concurrent hazard headlines for air quality? Gee, ya wonder if there's a relationship there. Historic heat in east TX to Arkansa - 500 mb heights say it gets more intense but 108 high at Little Rock ...? not sure the sun has enough power to actually dump into that enough to raise any further ( sarcasm). This heat ( btw ) hinted at being more of a problem NE across the continent about 10 days to two weeks ago (when in extended signals), but the leitmotif since the end of May has been to shunt. It may in fact be a shunt summer. Either way, we are more latitude challenged than other summers - so far - "weather" by vagarious chance of that nebular organization or not.

DPs are falling... nice. more 64-66 as opposed to 69-71 ...

"Real summer heat" It gets in the 90s in April ... How hot does it have to be in order to subjectively be real? It's a matter of frequency, only. Some years you do it earlier ... some later. Granted, the longer termed mean argues the return rate increases from April --> May --> June, such that it's rarer in Apr compared to the June or July. There's no other reality. This year we've been all over the place with real heat in April and May, and a wet June preventative - by and large. That's all. Nothing more, nothing less.

right, it took a minor event in the physics and fractal'ed it till the cows came home. ha

Interesting pattern offered overnight by both the Euro and GFS... Nothing terribly well organized, but daily convection chances for like 10 straight days. Some days only one or two cells sprinkled about, other days ... pervasive 18z explosions in a higher K-index, DP rich bonanza. All the while...there's a modest heat signal lurking. It's not likely the operational runs will ever see this. I've given up. The last one was a whopper, and we ended up folding the ridge over with a closed low in WV that took a hot signal and turned it into everything but an actual coastal storm ... other than heat. That's the rub with teleconnectors in the summer - the correlations are different because of the nebular flow types/lacking coherent long-wave..etc. Anyway, presently there is an EPO positive switch to negative (+1 to -1 SD), while the PNA is collapses to -1SD ... as we head through the holiday times. That combination at this time of year would settle a flow nadir into the Pac NW... with tendencies for rising heights across the eastern mid latitude continent. It's a question of how much(little) amplitude, and if greater... than we get warmer. The only problem is... the operational runs don't really reflect any of the above actually happening right now. It may emerge over the next week, similar to how the "fold over" pattern with ridging and apocalypse fires in Canada and a cut off S wasn't handled until nearer terms, we could formulate a passive heat footprint given time.

Same here ... +CG overnight, some so powerful you'd think the sonic waves must've cracked brick structures

Remember those Euro runs ... heh. I mean it didn't get it right, per se ... but interesting nonetheless

It's got to be the 850Td + ( 700T - 700Td) part of the total expression that's throwing the high threshold because that's like being under warm water out there today

Fledgling heat signal in the toward the first week of July ... maybe post 4th. Not a very bright but it's there. Shortened R-wave scaling with an onset dive in the EPO, whilst a neutralizing PNA (that actually goes modestly negative depending on the source) typically eject a heat plume. Heights in the east are rather zonal though ... (though trending). Operational GGEM/GFS hint, but don't actually contain a SW expulsion per se.

K index must be very high ... just about any CU turns into a grumbling down pour.

it's 76 of 70 here... Not sure what the convective temp is - Looks on sat like there's already deep convection moving up from the upper M/A. That may be related to on-going perturbation in the flow rather than in situ destabilization, tho.