Typhoon Tip

I know it's gonna be a decent event because I have f'n meetings all day and can't be involved - save stealing moments here or there like this, the 12z NAM FOUS ( my old lovable standard) really has about 8"(est) of 8:1 scheduled for Logan 48068989512 15215 000732 45009799 ..68" through a 0c, -3c, -1c column 54025988829 00413 940625 44029800 ..25" through a +2, -2, 0 60011957314 -1621 020125 38009693 so on... *This doesn't look above the 800 mb for those temp/sigma levels.

... at finite ( sub-consensus consideration) scales... we can also look for: marginality begin in-storm correct colder ( now-cast) should a Miller B be under assessed and turn out more intense. That's sort of a wild-card there, whenever we have a secondary

... and I don't see any compelling reason why a Euro/NAM blend is more useful than the cold guidance camp. I would recommend a whole membership consensus here. There are equal logics in support of either - none of which can be convincingly refuted at this time. Hence the inclusive tact. Having said all that .. yeah, it's possible that a flat-out colder solution "wins" or vice versa, but the reasons for that would require some sort of reanalysis/research. Course of lesser regret is the gray route

I see a consensus emerging a good portion of this sub-forum members won't like ( unfortunately ...) Snow/mix contention is along Rt 2 ... but for a distance S, will probably have to contend with some mixing negotiation that terminates to a skunk event for the Pike and points S - limited to no ZR for this affair. N of Rt 2 ... snow and mix fades to all snow, and determining stack is about temperature/ratios. All regions do not suffer more than a medium impact. Obviously where all rain...the impact is defined as just a moderate QPF event. This is what I would be drawing my weather maps. Whether that consensus may or may not meanders N or S from this interpretation ... who knows. But as is -

I'm hunching the NAM's convective parameterizations are feeding back more latent heat release into the immediate downstream exhaust ..which pumps the heights by small but crucial amounts - that then forces the whole wave to turn slightly left more proficiently. This is really quite precisely the same aspect you see over the west Atlantic/coastal regions, with coastal developments, where the NAM has a NW bias. It's just doing this along the longitude of the MV, instead of the from Tennessee to Cape May NJ. They all have TV convection along the warm front, but the NAMs rendition of that looks like training in July, where as the other look like normal IB type overrunning stuff. The 'type' and subsequent sequencing of CB convection matters

Despite whatever the ptype illustrations are showing, if that happens ...Scott's getting 1/16 of a mile Michael Jackson gloves with lightning and thunder

right - I thought it actually looked colder at first.. but wasn't paying attention to the low itself -really more about the thermal fields. Then it ends up east like that - so it kind of is an ambrosia of tedium to try and parse out what's really better or worse. I'm sick of this mo-f*r just happen already and get it over with. sonuvabitch

Not even close to the same set up actually ... I applaud the enthusiasm but Mar 1993 was a rare circumstance of the eastern Pacific being in such an overwhelming AA mode type amplitude, that the full latitude ridging went from eastern Alaska all the way to the subtropics, such that the entire local hemisphere, east of that axis wound up in one dominate jet with a powerful Rosby wave propagating through... Triple stream phased, atmospheric version of a "rogue wave" really. That's entirely different than what that chart above is indicating. just fwiw

It's easy to assume a Euro solution ... but that's conditioning from what I sense here. Least outcome relative to desire is an emotive response based on a troubled childhood. lol I don't see a lot of analytics that supports a Euro solution ( necessarily) over the GFS, other than an unrelenting season impassioned by torments and maddening results leading the way... Hence the conditioning. Can't say I blame anyone...

Comparing the oper. GFS vs the Euro ( this run...) arriving at 72 hours ...the Euro's confluence axis is several hundred miles NE of where the GFS places it. this is a clear disagreement on the degree of -NAO exertion spanning back SW ( ...transitively...) between these two guidance sources. the GEFs appears to side with the operational pretty well wrt to that, and the other parametric evolution -fwiw. not sure what the EPS says about its oper. flagship version, but i know that some recent run cycles demoed more disconnect in this cluster comparing the American suite - again... fwiw. This 'exertion' is hugely important to this. The GFS begins to feel that probably ... 36 hours into the cinema, when by imperceptible amts it begins correcting small amounts S-E along the arced trajectory as it rises in latitude ( deep layer total mechanical wave space governing the event). Such that by 72 hours, the Euro has a solution that's up our fannies too far for fun ( prison visit)... while the GFS is serviceable risk for winter enthusiasts...

Looks like wobble noise in a steeply gradated set up...

ICON would send people off their chairs if the model was worth a flake heh... I mean, that looks like 12 hours of S just about everywhere N of the south shore... with at least 8 of them in S+

Nam is almost 5 to 10 mb weaker with antecedent and in situ high pressure, N of Maine comparing the consensus.

actually... the 06z trended N by some comparing the 00z run. It's not a one time thing.. But the 06z GFS went colder... and with the Euro tending to collapse... so the consensus sign of the deltas (-dm/dt) are not in favor of the + dNAM/dt ( crude math) of these two recent NAM runs. It's a weird winter... every model or foresight there is has had equal chance to score a coup, but nothing has

clock work with the NAM... 72 hours it hangs it's ass over the punch bowl.

Lol... yeah...I was being 'sardonical' ...but I'm pretty sure we're going to be entering into a bit of a meso weirdness for the next day and half, as these type tools are really no where near their wheelhouse at this range - you know this ...for the general audience. I really feel at 3.5 days lead we gotta make the call here and predict the f'er at this point, and anyone that does gets a bit of latitude because for one... the gradient is tight. No one ( or model either ) can be held accountable if wiggles at grid scales means the difference between 9.4" of snow and some IP taint, vs 3.2" with ZR ..., vs cold rain, or 14.1" of pure snow... and on and so on. It's one reason why the colder trends were encouraging, because between the confluence N, and the semi permanent ridge wall S-SE, there is, ironic for needle threading, higher confidence in the primary --> secondary in the Bite region model to me. It's the "path of lessening resistance" ..but if/when doing so (obviously) in a colder total environment, affords those nuanced wiggles.

It’s 72 hours, so it’s precisely in the mandatory fuck up window of the Nam

Little critter. They do tend to slip awareness. It’s legit for CNE and points N. It’s been in the guidance as a ‘non-photogenic’ feature all along for Mar 2 … systems need more traditional glam to capture attention. It’s like why good looking people tend to go farther in life haha But Will and I had marked this one for monitoring a few days ago… as the high school guidance councilors we are … as a troubled loner spending a lot of time in “munitions quarterly”

It will be interesting to see if the models are edging that 700mb evolution right. It’s like sparking closing off, off and on, in theses isohypses intervals. I think it’s possible that if it gets that precarious .. it will just go ahead and close off.

Agreed … and I have less issue negotiating for blue during the blue times of year when marginality has an actual high pressure situated N feeding in correction vector points that way

Trivial note but me too. heh. Yesterday, at around 1:30 pm, it was still snowing but in classic spring form, the sky was really day glowing with the power of the sun... That looked that way without there even being a dim orb. It just was bright, and the car had actually glopped itself clear in the windows with beads of sweat running down. It made snow removal a non-issue. Today is likely to have a great "nape" affect - where no wind in full sun at this time of year creates this cocoon of fragile warmth. It's really quite redeeming when conditions afford that during an otherwise tired winter and exhausted patience time of year. For me anyway - I mean, cook up a blockbuster and I'm happy to pull the hypocrite's immunity card and go all in..but, those are relatively rare. Most years, I tend to check out by this time. Luckily... in about 10 days, there's a whopper signal. If this was back in my Eastern days, ... unconstrained for my visions, I would have started a thread already ...replete with index modalities.

Oh there's a large signal beyond the 10th. In fact, the night's ens means are now detecting.

Close ...I mentioned this was trying to move that way yesterday. You can observe that the ballast of the mid level wind max is now actually S of NYC-BOS axis, so technically...it's already starting to fail the SWFE total deep layer mechanics... In fact, I'd be perfectly happy saying the 00z/06z GFS blend is a hybrid Miller B already

Heh the ptype on TT is south of that

Here's a conspiracy theory ... ... notice how about 18 months ago... last year or so, the ECMWF org relaxed policy over their products quite a bit ... started allowing general access to viewing? This performance shit started raising eyebrows around then. Hmm Who here loves a good coincidence ?!