Typhoon Tip

Yeah..that trailing S/W has been looming ... the way it interferes is in question. It seems it is helping to tip the flow more SW and that carries the 3rd/4th lead more NW... ultimately creating the mangle aggregate clung to IP zr fest. I dunno... the orbital view to me hasn't changed. I don't see this getting N of Cleveland really... It's like the GFS has been trying to find ways to squeeze along that axis ever more densely every run.

Oh... I've thought that was too cute all along, frankly. I mean it may certainly go down that way, but I don't think the models are that good. I bet if it's snowing heavy in Templeton, it's snowing heavy in Ayer given these synoptic parameters. ...just not something I'm inclined to mention. Some storms, yeah...obviously It seems the model physics are having like ( this is gonna sound wacko) "grid scale negative feedback" ..there is a blocking exertion, but the models are over assessing it at the boundary of their grid. Thats "might" be why the meso models have more snow over eastern areas in general, because their not doing that at those finite scales as much. Dorks like me think about shit like that. LOL

Man... I'm glad I highlighted the cold offset potential to the CPC's general temperature outlook during this first two weeks of March, because this -EPO / cold loading look over the higher latitudes is just not conducive to their success ... particularly above the 40th ~ parallel. This -EPO is not new in the teleconnector progs, either. I've seen it there for several days. There is also a -WPO --> AB phase of the N. Pacific total construct evolving D6- 14, which are both longer/lapsed time correlations to cold outbreaks over N/A in general... It's like we're witnessing the demise of the La Nina circulation proxy right before our very modeled eyes. 'Just wish that had happened on Jan 1 and not Mar 1. To their credit, they've been predicting a rather rapid loss of the La Nina during this late winter through spring, 2023... I guess if/when the onset of this other high latitude stuff, it's a subject for advancing research to figure out if that is causally related, but it should definitely assist in decoupling the basal flow mode. I'm not sure SSW really is part of this, btw, after spending more time evaluating what's happened up there over the past month...different discussion Not sure what all this will mean as we are now entering into the solar donut stuffing machine times like Homer Simpson in hell. Eventually ...the hemisphere in the models seems like they are unaware of that flux just yet ...

I like this mean because as those negative anomalies are saddling through the eastern continental mid latitudes there...the -NAO is actually in a state of pulling back. That is whence those "higher end" events happen - but I'd also point out the obvious, that is true for any event. They all succumb - but yeah...the big ticket items, counter to intuition, actually are fragile and require less negative obstruction to be realized. You know... truth be told, a lot of the smaller events that survive to offer entertainment during the unfortunate circumstance of compressed flow types, those are the residue of a big event - in other words, enough kinematics to actually breath through an elephant's ass.

okay ... good work! But it doesn't help me, nor the the attempt at implied effacing humor of my pointing out my own folly in reading ... knowing you're so helpful, does it .

it's like we need sub-sub-sub forums ... One for Rt 2. One for the Pike west of ORH. One for ORH... one for Boston. One for Methuen... One for southern NH... cuz I keep getting confused why impressions over events are so shitty(glorious) ... then having to have it eventually dawn on me that the last 20 posts were actually from some cluster of shit-outta-luck (charmed) individuals hailing from some focused area ... haha.

Okay, but.. for winter enthusiasts, I think it's cold enough - serviceable. The anomaly products are less constraining on the outlook for me, when the scalar assessments of the 2-meter ambient temperature, and the 850 thermal layout over the course of the total synoptic awareness/evolution...is/are deeply cold enough. I mean, these synoptic parameters could certainly change in the modeling moving forward... we'll see.

Yeah...these progressive pattern embedded systems seem to do that a lot. They end up a day or so earlier than when they were originally picked up by the models, back when D10s

nyeaaah...it's not that virtuous. There's an ah-seeking affect there. No one in here is racing to make an accuracy report for their livelihood. You're right about the marginal aspect - but that's also evading there's some other fulfillment thing we do in this 'hobby'

In any case, we shouldn't ( imho ) impugn the Euro at all on this system. If may end up on the low end of the results ... but, it was the first to pump the breaks on a full bird Miller B bomb ... entering us into the last 4 days of consistent consternation. It wins for that alone. At least gets an honorable mention. That's not a failure really, when the other guidance also started showing similar hesitations and limitations... even though they are conserving more QPF after having conceded to what the Euro showed first.

You guys are obsessing over details like a carpet surfing crack addict hahaha.

For what it's worth ... - the 00z GGEM is a subtle S/weak outlier compared to it's GEPs mean, but the whole mean seems - to me - as though it has too much negative interference. Not sure why that is...or if that assessment turns out correct. - the 00z EPS is a classic Miller B, but the low doesn't deepen so well post that commitment. Hmm prooobably owing to the attenuation of the total mechanical manifold of the system, which is a nod to GGEM but it may also be more correct if the GGEM does indeed prove just too heavy handed there. - the GEFs are doing the same thing, but the entire space is massively so much more powerful than either of the two above... it has to conserve that and ends up sufficiently strong enough to imply a major event (despite a weaker post commited Miller B take over) anyway. That's differential aspect has been consistent now for days on this event... Interesting. Just a fun note on that.. the blend of the 00z and 06z is quintessential. It's fast moving ... taking a Miller B from S Jersey to somewhere between Cape Cod and the BM in just 6 hours, but, ...the region's already been in decent front side overrunning for 6-9 hrs at that point. It's like a fast moving large system ...so it's still taking time to evolve thru by virtue of vastness. It just moves an Arklatex low ( meaning pwat rich) along a perfect climo trajectory. Damn, why does that have to be 120 hours, right?

Showed up big time on the FOUS for Logon. .8” liq equiv

ha.. just call the whole thing 4-10 and be done with it. I guess it's it means there's no defined boundary between intervals but in that case you could have said 4-6 and "-"6-10 haha

It really can't get more N than Cleveland ~ with what's going on above Lake Superior to W of Nova Scotia. It can't... That's impenetrable as it is modeled. If the models someway somehow veer the mid level circulation mode to the SW, than it could... until that happens, it cannot physically get N that approximate latitude. Which the 18z GFS is coming around to admitting that... but, it's also pressed really against that latitude... Which tells me, the correction vector is pointed more S-E. This run still depicts a major QPF event however, ...only stemmed by the fact that this is somehow a progressive system, despite having at least transitive exertion by the -NAO domain, as is in part evidenced by this... Granted, transitive means indirect and not directly opposing...so therein is wiggle room but jesus - it tries to evac this thing in like 10 hours. I wouldn't be shocked if future runs demo at least some deceleration ... we'll see on that speculation. But until that "barrier" jet gets modeled to not be there...this can only go just about due east from this location you see there. And the consequence of tunneling through the transitive ridge from NE S is with a lot of falling shit from the sky

I haven't honestly been giving this thing much time... I didn't realize this was elevation dependent? ALB has issued headlines, but their layout is entirely constrained to the ridge lines.

That may be so... no qualms employing that anticipation. In fact, it's highly likely. How much or how little? But I don't see a phasing source?

GEFs has also trended several mb weaker overall ... This isn't gonna be an easy ride. We still have the caveat wrt to the -PNA footprint/fast progressive nature to the flow to contend with. We are all aware that 'past performance doesn't dictate future performance' with these models, but I've never fully agreed with that sentiment. Partially? sure - but only in so far as every situation/scenario has to be considered for its own identity. The problem is... that identity is in the same family and families tend to share behavioral-related genetics. Heh... In this case, the modest transient exertion by the -NAO ...doomed the GFS' fancy wrt to the 28th. It seems reasonable to assume the same exertion will be in place as this thing is approaching - the key difference being, this one is wholesale more powerful upon ejection out of the SW... So how that resolves as it moves closer toward the terminus of the NAO exertion ( roughly where we are in space)... that's a "cloudy" picture. I am noticing the gap between the 3rd/4th principle S/W, and a new injection coming in from the W, is shrinking across the last several cycles. It seems this cycle has crossed a threshold where there is now some destructive interference being introduced into the whole circuitry of affairs, from that introduced source, that was not a part of previous run cycles. So yayyy ...another card player shows up for the deal. This higher error prone progressive pattern could morph all this ...if that gap narrows further and then it becomes dominant and we end up with something no one saw coming. Anyway, this 12z GFS deterministic run is selling less NAO exertion overall, and for that ... tries to make a run at a cutter.. .but ultimately fails - not before it is too late... and this ends up less than appealing to winter enthusiasm. right.

Fwiw, the operational GFS is a significant NW outlier compared to the evolution of it's ensemble mean. ...the latter of which, also fwiw, is a fantastic snow event implication from N PA thru NE.

The NAM is in it's N-NW bias range ... but if it gets other support would naturally arouse confidence

Seeing a repeating theme of very deep pressures spread around odd locations considering the synoptics … Again, I suspect as is/was the case in the GEFs, this may be owing to the very large latent heat ingest this system had access to when it emerges out of the Arklotex region.

I saw that too … a lot of light pillars with snow falling through them. Is that a thing ?

Alright ... let's try a different tact this go around. There is an important signal for the dates in the title, one that I would characterize as a medium impact for now, with both higher and lower correction potential. Firstly, I realize the villagers are bit edgy if not incensed by the debacle that's gone on in the models, wrt the 28th system. I mean I get it. Unfortunately, nature is not going to wait for you to get over it. The language contained is not intended to sell cinema here. It's should be treated as an early awareness, outline some observations for consideration regarding the 3rd/4th event. Technically being inside of 7 days ... (5.5 or so days 18z, and this is in shotgun sites of our region ...), this is not an atypical range to preliminary a threat assessment. That is what this is for. It is important to compartmentalize these recent disappointments as being unrelated to this prospect - because simply put ... they are unrelated to this prospect. I will be happy to come in here and add the operative adjectives should this evolve in a clear and obvious d-drip direction.. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Basic synopsis: A deeper more expansive full latitude trough than has been observed in recent weeks if not months, appears slated to be ejected out of the semi permanent -PNA nadir over the SW... resulting ultimately in a fast moving QPF loaded Miller A type low genesis and track that brings it to our doorstep by the end of the 3rd. It is lifting N out of the Arklotext region, which climatologically that's brought flooding problems in springs, owing to proximity to warm inflow/Gulf of Mexico moisture source, resulting in an enormous PWAT transport. We have ample cold on the N side of this particular low. Presently modeled in both the Euro and GFS operational version ... a cryo sufficiently cold air mass is in place across PA/NY NE England, back built by +PP in Ontario, already as this system is modeled to approach. The cold side of risks a hefty amount of liq equiv in S/IP/ICE over perhaps a 12 to 18 hour period. Models: You are all aware of the 00z, 06z, 12z, and this recent 18z blends of the GFS ... but for the sake of discussion: monster in that particular guidance source. Negatively tilted with over a 100kts of massively loaded jet transport. The exit/lateral/entry regions of this thing are extraordinary, even as it is being force by the antecedent and on-going -PNA footprint, to open up a dish pan trough structure when it cross through - again...as GFS is arranging things. This is the most intense version of this system I can find, moving the low track over central LI to SE Ma ~ targeting deep interior for goodly dose of IP/ZR and snow W_N The Euro made a pretty significant correction N... having about half to 3/4 of the GFS amplitude, targeting DC to NJ for a significant snow event. Perhaps the most use/telling are the ensemble means... The GEFs seem to parrot the operational version, having an impressively large deep solution that varied from SE Ma to the Benchmark over the last several cycles. The EPS has made significant attempt toward more structure, as has the GEPs... Perhaps someone can post those images ? All these are improving over cycles, with the EPS and GEPs making a more convincing lurch today. They also have an interestingly varied spread in intensity, with some of them getting rather exotic - this I feel owes to the incredible diabatic inject this system has as a ( really ...) early spring, deeper latitude origin, riding N into a cold antecedent/seasonal latency in place in our region. Hence the high ceiling potential. The "super blend" of these is almost a perfect scenario ... but that's likely just a present artifact of noise. Caveats emptors and the lower ceiling potential: 1 .. the -PNA footprint is raging through next week, and March 4. System ejected out of the west will need to supply ( most likely...) there own mechanical power to overcome being lift over the negative (NVA) aspect of the SE ridge. 2 ..In reality, I suspect some de-magnification shit will occur. ...I don't believe the GFS is necessarily right with 20" in Albany and 3" of sleet and ZR from Kevin to myself... But, the blend of the GEFS/EPS/GEPs is trending to a much, much more deeper full troposphere ejection through the W. As comparison, that's a much different animal compared to the over-sell that took place with the 28th and is also the biggest mass modality we've seen perhaps since Dec.

I'm actually a heart full enough to hope NYC gets a band of moderate to heavy for 4 hours.

Y'all might wanna start entertaining the notion that this was just a model canard all along ...and the region may end up in a C-2"er when all's said and done. If you were to draw a trend line starting 3 days ago, ...it seems like such a line would end up down there... In fact, the trailing N/stream is buckling a bit more in the flow behind this ...whatever it is not - looks like a WAA IB that's over QPF populated by American guidance types at this point - looks more like it could be an interesting 2 hour burst... but I suppose to the two just get melded together as one ordeal.