Typhoon Tip

so it's 80 in KFIT and mixing with snow at Montreal

Mm I get the sentiment but this appears to be a little more amped than that. There's record cold in the region during the night... It may fail, but it's in the discussion, and that should be fairly qualified as more than a 'no big deal' But the occurrence of cold in May - I'll definitely entertain the notion that exceeding 1 SD cold, as a part of the CC signal, or at minimum has been a recurrent theme in our springs now going back 15 to 20 years regardless, with marked increase in frequency over the previous 100 years

You know ... the way this trough swings through so quickly, and the whole air mass rolls right on out 24 to 30 hours later ...it really reminds me of a tepid version of that ordeal back in early February that brought the ridic cold that lasted all of 18 hours... I was just looking at the 12z GGEM and it returns heights to 576+ by Thursday evening... No memory of where it was 24 hours earlier... and certainly, unaware considering where we are now. Very similar

My personal feel on that frost/freeze issue is that smoke will mean nothing to the success/failure in that realization ... because it is evac'ed away from the region - been discussing the issue. This air mass will be sufficiently cold enough for frost (freeze N)... the main limiting factor would be wind and success in decoupling enough to go calm.

Loop this ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ ...gives the distinct impression that we'll end up N of the smoke axis as this trough amplitude and round-house cold punch us.

It's interesting ... I almost wonder if the smoke is actually augmenting these terrain triggered cloud plumes over the lower Monad/range, by providing an over-abundance of condensation nuclei ... We are busting temperatures pretty badly as of the hour. It may release all at once in an hour and then we abruptly clear. Though we'll have the smoke filtration still in place. I've read that SAL in the tropics creates an overly proficient condensation nuclei - just wondering if that microphysics are similar in principle.

Higher res vis loops over the continental perspective shows that the cold front punching S across W Ontario is sharply evacuating the smoke behind. This air mass coming in isn't sourced over NW Canada... It's a "continental folding" pattern. Get a load of the standing wave cloud pattern over the terrain, boning us for sun even more than the smoke alone this hour. Overall, we're in an anomalous hemisphere right now, so ... in principle, hosting anomalous behavior ... if in subtle ways. That's doing that over 2,500' ridge line like the Sierra Nevada

Not that anyone asked but my hunch is that the smoke will alleviate when the -EPO circulation mode tapers off... The region/source/origin of the smoke has been in a semi persistent dry/warm anomaly due to the W/NW flow over continental terrain of NW Canada and/or ridging, which is a down-slope trajectory and only augments the circumstance ... If we trust the GEFS/GEPs ...that regime changes between D7 and 10. In fact, it may also herald in summery layout S of 50 N across much of continent when that happens, too.

I think it’s interesting that it’s outpacing the SOI index

The other aspect ...well 'aspect for me,' I should say, is that I'm leery of the boreal summer hemisphere vs ENSO derivatives. For the usual reasons surrounding larger scope coherency break downs. That pattern is more apt to meander because of perennial R-wave fracturing.

Seems like there's some truth to this sarcasm - assuming it is sarcasm. heh. What's been happening is that in the autumns and spring, the flow typology passes through a period of amplitude, but because total velocity of the hemisphere is reducing ... this allows deeper trough/cold mid level transports to mid latitudes. Counterintuitively, mid winter periods have become increasingly velocity saturated because total flow ends up so compressed - the baseline 534 to 546 has a tendency to get pinned to mid latitudes ... with more progressivity and rapider pattern transports. I mean obviously not always - we're talking tendencies. By the way, the GGEM (12z) has heights down to 540 dm passing over S VT/NH mid day Wed ... 2 days later, 582 ...

I'm not sure, though ... For now, I just suspect that the some of the climate inconsistencies might be related, in general ... , to the background offsets. We'll see. Last season's California onslaught/'River' stuff was more of a strong warm ENSO thing, happening in 3rd year La Nina. Yet, CPC discussions frequently cited the Pacific as having a La Nina footprint - so there's some sort of incongruency about their/that assessment, vs what happened out west. Unless I'm wrong... I've read more places than one to tie-in River events to El Nino... Anyway, that event would suggest that typical La Nina didn't behave normally, either.

Yeah... it's something we've discussed in the past - I don't dislike the notion.

I couldn't agree more with the first in the series facets, related to being cognizant of background global SST anomaly. I'll add to that "...Since the 1990s..." with an op ed: The recent global 'warm burst' ( which is still being analyzed for veracity vs instrumentation, granted - ) that too unprecedented form during the Feb-early Apr period, seemed to coincide with the demise of the -ONI - perhaps related, perhaps not. It may present certain challenges to straight up linear assessment. 1 ...The SOI is (albeit weakening..) still technically in the positive mode, which in addition to being [actually] not correlated with the warm ENSO - NINO 4 vs 3.4 VS 1+2 quadrature, notwithstanding - the deltas were behaving/weakening like a typical dying La Nina as of April. 2022 +0.8 +1.8 +2.9 +2.8 +2.4 +2.8 +1.3 +1.7 +2.7 +2.8 +0.5 +3.5 2023 +2.3 +2.3 +0.3 +0.4 ( Jan Feb Mar Apr ... ) The present warmth that is noted everywhere associated with the 'warm burst' phenomenon, precedes(ed) the SOI ( Southern Oscillation Index is a very institutional/physically clad means for assessing the state the llv mass flux associated with the ENSO phases. Positive pressure anomalies --> negative ENSO, and vice versa. ) This all raises question over whether the present warming is really El Nino onset. 2 ... The "effectiveness" of the ENSO toward forcing/modulating the climate becomes questionable. The last "super Nino" that occurred was noted as being only tepidly disruptive around the typical climate expression avenues of the larger environmental manifold - above or below medium impact. This "absorption" phenomenon by the total system, lowers gradient between the tropics and the mid latitudes ... which changes the triggers in the total physically integrated sense. In other words, the warmer than normal total oceanic space out side, as it is already quasi coupled to the atmosphere, may be subsuming some of the mechanical forcing of ENSO.

This article vacillates between cringe-worthy, and hand throwing hilarity https://phys.org/news/2023-05-meteorologists-climate-misinfo-surge.html

76/44 ... one thing that sticks out is that the quality of "blue" in the blue sky now sans the smoke. Kinda of forget how laser hot the sun is

I kinda feel like we've been running through our quota on those, actually... I mean there's some subjectivity to that notion/judgement, and it also may not have been the same up near you as it has been down near Rt 2 ... but we've qualified something like 4 out of the last 6 days.

Next week...

It goes from light rain cool retarded murk to a super nova of sun on a dime - just cleared here like a light switch

It's possible too that as we get closer that trough will shallow out some more ... I hope. I don't need another rural Massachusetts conversation in ear shot describing why Trump is being treated unfairly because there's no way climate change is real when it's this cold in May ... completely salient connective reasoning that goes on in these towns west of 495 - zonk~

We may not get through the +PNA --> +PNAP continent without consequence entirely... Next Wednesday with sub 540 hydrostats draped down to LI with Montreal Express circulation synoptics, doesn't exactly inspire summery weather. LOL ... Looks like it rotates out quickly because already Thursday afternoon tries to recover by some 10 of 15 F for high temperatures. That's not bad though considering what the 15th through 23rd looked like it might be whence eval a week ago. I feel like instead, we're getting off with lesser charges over the original conviction of murder by drowning in shits ... By the way, there's an emerging signal for warmer weather after the 22nd ...particularly the 25th of the month. Telecon spread along with "synoptic cadence" suggest that.

Just ended here. Managed to dark gray the street but no puddles.

spc has New England in a General assignment for today .. yup. has that feel. hoping for some cloud geeking later.

that's just dew, dude - haha