Typhoon Tip

Not seeing a big load of QPF. In general we may correct the llvs colder … but for a lighter event ?

The ensemble means of all three... essentially parrot their operational versions.

The GGEM is hugely more in favor of the GFS overall... From this particular point in time and range, it's 2 against 1

Actually... closer look at the surface synopsis ... the GFS isn't a bad as that, buts it's definitely different and less favorable overall.

I spent 10 minutes observing the looping the stereographic layout of the NH off the deterministic 00z GFS and Euro solutions, and I couldn't really make out any reason to assess either as less likely regarding that 120 - 180 period out there. Which nests the 28th system ... It's important, because they offer world's apart difference wrt to that event. The GFS is a nod to seasonal trend, but has a progressive bias ( also ) regardless of said trend. It has the same eastern limb -NAO as the Euro ( they actually agree spectacularly on that specific feature out there by D6-7-8), but the effect it has on us, here, is the GFS doesn't transmit that effect. It keeps the -NAO influence more toward the outer Maritime and Greenland areas, and allows the Pacific/-PNA to proxy our events until much later ( that fantasy crap out there at 300 hours) The Euro seems to be responding more to the -NAO over the eastern limb, by transitively causing a slowing/trapping of the circulation features across the NW Atlantic Basin. This transitive forcing ( meaning it is coming from afar) basically back-logs the escape latitudes and speeds over eastern N/A, much more an expression of a NAO exertion comparing the two models. Thus, the local scale circulation mode ..and circumstantially advantageous to winter enthusiast, the mechanics of the 28th system ends up dumping a ton of snow across New England. The -NAO has a multi faceted support for happening -but when/where? Flip a coin ... not sure I see a reason why either is more likely than the other. Either we get 0 south coast snow to 4" of tired futility in the mountains out of the GFS. Or, something like 18-24" out of a slow moving, stalled CCB hosing into ample cold thickness, with 30 hours of S/W mechanics force fed under our latitudes.

It would be neat to see if we were getting like moderate freezing rain at 31.8 and then all the sudden it was 19 with moderate freezing rain

What's going on with NWS ? I don't wanna be flippant or impugn but ...there's been like 7 days of antecedent consistency leading this thing. I think it's safe to pull a trigger on Headline graphics. The other office did, what's the hold up? I needed those for critical update. Damn it

yeah, ( lol ) I just posted that exact thing..

The Euro may have tuck too, but it's so cold really N of the Pike that it may be sort of lost/absorbed in it

Agreed... How that translates to the ptype gradient ..heh. But I feel ( still) that the correction vector for all this mess is still S oriented. "weather" that ultimately happens, it's more like leaning. The problem I'm also having is long years of experience related to seeing 1030 polar high with teens over single digit T/DP hanging over our latitudes by drain distance, with low pressure - however weak almost doesn't matter - rippling by to the S of us. Yet we stagnate at 33 F ... ? I don't know. The GGEM has a coherent tuck evidenced by the 2-meter, Thurs afternoon - the model may suck by street cred but this seems like a dead ringer for that. Maybe what you said, is just unique enough for a cold bust.

It's lala range anyway but ... that solution is also shirking D.C. to Maine out of a 30" history bomb

All I needed to do is op-ed an 8 paragraph rant about 'pumping the 28th breaks' because the NAO was backing off ( this morning...) and now during the day ... we start going back the other direction. see? all one has to do is bitch and complain and there we go. LOL No but that's about an ideal look for 'balancing' the -PNA with -NAO. It's a narrow window that we really need to work out, for this recouperation idea... Otherwise, heh... But it is what it is and we'll see. That said, the 28th is still a dead deal to us, because this NAO is just that delay I was talking about. So, whence we arrive upon the 28th, does that then get delayed again? God ...I hate the f'ing index

All we're doing in here it pointing out the very typical oscillations that happen to everything that is ever modeled. Step back and look at it from Orbit...this has been solid and relatively unalterable since a day ...day and half ago. Every storm that is ever modeled, no matter the scale or the intensity, varies just like this - typically... no one notices, because they are safely inside the threat area where such minuscule movement are irrelevant ... thus, unnoticed. In other words, it's unlikely to be an indication of this moving en mass N or S from here on out. These 'giga' motions are going to take place in the guidance output, right through verification. You'll know if this wholesale makes a definitive move.

mm... all years combined perhaps. Our arena this year and the antecedent/leading indicators wholesale, changes that idea a bit in my mind. These 70+ rolling warm balls through the M/A are may just be a harbinger - Or not ...just sayn'

no idea

hooo... (exhaling) we can relax. The JMA saves the d-drip dosing

..heh... 'cool' ? what I just described transcends a 'cool spring' ...and that's what we may end up with, a sort of protracted May 2005 deal. Not all SSW --> -AO effect our hemisphere the same...some may not show up, some do really bad like in 2005 ... But, we're talking physically raining in cold air... never stopping, not just cool. If that's what is really coveted, okay - but just so's we're clear

I don't really care if it snows or not in that sense. I'm interested if snow is falling...or may do so, Sure. But it doesn't hit me that hard if it doesn't work out - especially post Feb 15 any year. I like intersting events for a spectrum of the weather output. I think it's cool when you get IP aggregation... several of them frozen together... they're loud and bounce and shatter... Neat to see.

I realize y'all in that Pike latitude really are straining and I'm sensitive to that ...but this looks like from Ray's area to myself/FIT gets a solid 5 hours of straight moderate 1/2 to 1/3 mi vis snow before we IP on that run. That's actually more than I anticipated at this threads inception along Rt 2. ...But, no one can be held accountable in the CH scenarios... the gradient is so finite that it's beneath the resolution of the best tech and minds... imho. ha.

y'allz funny mu'fuggers Actually, this 12z run of the Euro ...I'm telling you, you can see more NAO exertion comparing 156 to the previous 168 ... f ...here that's why this run is better. It's subtle, but you can see how the 12z retros the NAO just a little over the previous cycle ( left ) and immediately ...the hemisphere responds by forcing the Lakes cutter more E. It just takes that little bit of adjusting and it forces the activity here, South. which ( now to confuse you ...) isn't really the NAO forcing it - it gives that allusion. It's really just that these features move as an integral at large scales, or tend to.

seldom do I engage in this sort of discussion but .... really? Serious Q: do you like 40 F mist in between 38 F straight rain nor'easters... always relentlessly every day ?

I like the appeal outside today though ...least around here. We got the old 'under the radar' grits and flurries going... it's a solid fireplace afternoon. Also, that looks somewhat convective out there in NYS ...wonder if we can't get a burst later this evening

Looks like the GGEM has a pretty intense tuck between 7 pm and midnight Thursday evening

well they'd better hurry ... Running out of time before they have to just be flat out considered busts... I don't accept in recent tech advancing in these tools ... a day's lead than 'oh, by the way'? UN acceptable. That is a failure That said... were/if folks were 'hoping' cold corrections would continue right on into a snowier solution for us, down here, ...yeah, not impossible. But it was never really on the better side of the odds with this mess. It's still really unchanged to be blunt. Looks like RUT -PWM ~ latitude for snow to me, with IP --> ZR --> cold rain however far it takes to ruin yet another opportunity in this winter of misfits going S.