Typhoon Tip

Well yeah... it is what is. Not to discredit one being able to see - or ridicule the significance of the event ( I was initially poking fun at the audience seekers out there that use technology... blah blah). I've driven I84 at night a few times, though... It seemed to me once 10 or so miles up the way heading out of Hartford, that sky up there gets pretty damn dark though. If "ambient light pollution" in this context means diffused artificial light, that would cloak ( ironic oxymoron -) the existence of smaller nooks that may offer some better viewing chances. sure. Man, I just wonder how a Carrington -scaled event would compete with the illumination grid of the planet. Well...heh, ultimately it would win of course. Because within an hour or two of onset, the grid sectors would start blinking off in chunks... but for a time, would you be able to see those unworldly spirits that seem like they could almost touch the tree tops in downtown NYC, or how 'bout "Lost" to Morality Vegas - that'd be the shits. You ever see those satellite/night displays of the landscape, and the artificial lights looking nerve cells replete with dendritic connections to nearby other nerve cells... digress

I did see an iPhone video taken outside of Fairbanks Alaska a month or so ago, ...when a sneaking CME that for some reason escaped the detection methods ... slammed the Earth out of nowhere ( or it may have been one of those "co-rotating" deals). The guy was moving the vantage of the phone's camera around an undulatory sky of light curtains while crowd oo's and ah's were audible in the background. He was offering some baser hick expletives of his own... That's in Alaska though. The last time I saw unaided aurora my self (mid latitudes) was way back in 1985 around 11pm in Rockport Mass, looking NNE from Long Beach. It was very low on the horizon and you had to stare for a while to see it or gain much impression of any irregular light pulsations... Prior to that, I saw it several times in Michigan growing up a young lad. Oh wait ...I forgot. I went back there for an autumn in 1990 and saw a pretty good display that was higher in the sky ... But, that looked nothing like these renderings we are seeing on social media so frequently nowadays. I suspect the ambient light pollution from PWM-ATL east of Appalachia also represents certain interference problems for ooing and aahing caliber displays, too.

Yeah, pretty low slugging percentage for the first month of this years 'summer batting' season...

was that witnessed by unaided eye, though? ... with camera tech the way it is, and pervasive these days, ... these auroras are photoed by way of timed exposures, that are then rendered to Twitter and other social media platforms under the auspices of, 'look what I saw last night' - leaving the part out that they could not have "seen" anything without these devices. I rarely see a disclaimer or any comment at all really that says, 'I am not actually worthy of the center of attention I'm seeking, because I could not have seen this without high tech assistance' lol. No but these long exposures can "see" auroras that glancing at the nocturnal firmament alone more commonly cannot detect.

Tomorrow looks sneaky gem like.

The giggedy range of the GFS with a continental heat dome forming ... I think in this case, however, we should watch for that sort of emergence in general as we head toward D12 and beyond, based on long lead perceived telecon modes. The ONI is offering less resistance to tropical forcing with the waning La Nina, which there is such a forcing that appears to replace this current ...whatever the f this is... I know what it is though - we're suffering a blocking hang over from eastern N/A and Asian early heat dispersion into higher latitudes ... but anyway. When this wanes out there is an actual wave signature emerging in the RMM correlating to heat, and without very many offsets it may couple to the R-wave momentum giving to a quasi- standing wave over N/A ... Speculative, but I personally wouldn't be shocked if early heat balloons E of 110 W

Going back well over a decade... I've been noting a remarkably tight correlation between space weather activity, and New England's inability to ever see them due to terrestrial weather interference.

I guess it depends on what sector your in - in other words, any lag may be below the regional scale ... Up here we are if anything ahead by ~ a week, so close to climo. And with the addition of today's water we'll be about on target for hyrdo too. What we are is way above normal in temperature. So, putting all that together and dividing by N terms ... doesn't really scream a belated spring for the Mohawk Trail/Rt 2 crowd.

That sounds like the genesis of a new narrative -

I'm surprised there isn't even a rudimentary sort of flood statement down here. Gray ME office has a statement ...

I kind of like the lower bandwidth rad NWS is switching to - or 'back' to... Looks similar but not exactly like the product they had prior to the 'pretty much no radar worth using era at all' they just sent us through over the last couple of years... Not sure why, but the "enhanced" product is not really as good from a user experience - for me anyway. It may be all primitive, as part of an ongoing longer term product evolution/plan. But I have an iphone, couple of laptops with Celeron tech, and a home PC with quad, 2.51 GZ processor core. Yet, using any of these, the term 'enhanced' would not be the adjective I would use to describe the user experience. I think the bigger problem is both the navigation response, as well as frame load times. Both are frustrating ... even on these latter conventional technology platforms.

no no. Tomorrow is a$$ ... today is just smells like the a$$, tomorrow ... SNE's collective head is rammed up in the rectum

It's unlikely ... I mean not that you need to be told that. From a telecon perspective the pattern nadirs then, however. The presently evolving -NAO ( west limb) is by then collapsing, as the +PNA renders to an amplified +PNAP maximum. That timing of those particular major mass field indicators is cyclogen correlated. Specific to the deep layer synoptics, it's dubious...with a 983 mb low escaping over the BM and a new 980 mb out of no where popping off back west like that... It is indicative of a weak baroclinic physics in the lower levels, while pure mid level forcing. The thermal setting is marginal ...but marginal ( as in +- 0C at 850) at the end of April doesn't typically cut it. We'd need more substantial anomaly ... say -2 or -3C, and down into the 925 mb levels by that late in the year. The Euro has a bit of curvature bias at that range, too. That is a D7+ Euro cyclogen look to it. Nevertheless, the GEFs and EPS members have some deeper members cluster around the DM to BM give or take some longitude ... That's about it for now. My guess is > 50% odds it won't look like that on the next run.

Get's hot in May... we just have to stick it out the next 10 days

It's completely clear W-S of here now. This type of mid level I've seen many times in the past... it seems to be fragile and related to nocturnal sounding nuances, but the sun tips over the morning horizon and goes to work and it just disappears - the sat loops seems to suggest this is one of those mornings with that stuff. May be a diffused/elevated warm frontal structure entangled in that too...

Yeah, #MeToo ... The April casting couch has hand cuffs when it comes to escaping the influence of BDs That curved pressure pattern bulging in from the E through early tomorrow ( ahead of the main baro-c axis) probably keeps SE flow in the lowest levels. Game over for warm fronts... The best bet is to be so far on the N-E side of boundary that we clear out from that subsidence. ...Sometimes the exclusion pattern really hits home when you see a clear sky coming in from the wrong direction... haha. Anyway, not sure that's even doable. I think today is an interior gem and then folks should plan on a bit of 'rhea for several days. I am noticing though that the models are attempting alleviation from the drear on the 00z solution spread. It's mostly in the deterministic solutions, tho.. The Euro and GGEM were actually improved over prior runs for D7-10. Hopefully that has legs.

Hi everyone ... ...I'm interesting in establishing an ongoing discussion, ranging from disciplined research to general aspects involving environment. It could/would encompass the total manifold that exists under the general rubric of "anthropomorphic pollution" . This is a weather -based social media platform, so it may not be entirely appropriate in the strictest sense ... However, merely starting the thread in Off-Topic lounge probably doesn't get noticed? Aside, OT is really evolved to be purposed for other uses - to put in kindly ... There's not much purpose in attempting much there. It is not entirely disconnected. Atmospheric aerosols that contribute to soil acidification - as just one example ... - are also connected to climate due to atmospheric microphysics and radiation budgeting... etc.

Of the two … the GFS last 2 runs are worse imo.

sometimes these kind of back of the igloo patterns in spring end up a little less repugnant as the models paint. in theory, the hemisphere is trying to lose winter ... but we're saddled with a -NAO in the guidance, one that takes several days to retrograde fully... during that time, if we don't fully 'rhea, we're dealing with that annoying spring chill shit most likely. then, afterward, the models 'think' that's it - the pattern stays that way to oblivion without any block or real wave signature making that happen. i suspect that's all false out there beyond D 10 or 12, and we'll probably see some modulation start to emerge at some point in future guidance.

Ode to spring's anus ...

https://phys.org/news/2023-04-devastating-greenland-antarctic-ice-sheets.html

Machine numbers seem a bit blunted for tomorrow. 67 at FIT under full sun, with all of 8 kts of near variable breeze and +6 ave between 925 and 850mb... Should be about 75 there.

Folks may want to try and enjoy these next two days of sun ...with at least relative warmth today, more so tomorrow, yup. 'cause after that, you're muzzles are strapped to the April shit stuffing machine for the next 10 days. We may actually get chilly and drab as the 850 mb temps are rising later Friday with that pressure pattern. GGEM's buckin' for a blue baby out there in the last week of the month. And frankly, Euro and GFS merely miss a cold pocket timed with an overall 500 mb evolution that would, too, if not for chance. Unlikely to work out ...but the alternative is deeply dreary, either way. Not that you or anyone asked, I suspect May is different this year than recent springs tho. The last 4 ( folks may recall ) have been orchard stresser chilly at times, at other times ... weird thermal profiles that are almost hard to explain. Like 534 hydrostatic heights with temps up to 72 F, and high based dessert CB's That was a really weird under the radar climate change thing going on while civility carried on unaware, but won't go there... heh. Anyway, I think there may be another synoptic warm burst out there before any real summer pattern gets established. And doing one of those as we are entering the perennial solar maximum (~May 8) would be a different party than doing so March or early April. Makes sense... '87 April event followed a week layer by 90. LOL. I'd love to see that, tho. I wonder if that's ever happened, that extreme of a wholesale turn around spanning lesser time. It seems big correction happening all over the world with increased frequency.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/19/asia/asia-heat-records-intl-hnk/index.html

yup... not just modeled though, it was conceptually explained how/why these blocking suppressed jet deals happen after 'synoptic warm bursts' - It's why I'm not particularly grousing or feeling put out by it because I've had a week to psycho babble prepare. That and the incontrovertible fact that this region of planet is empirically the biggest piece of shit place to live ... on the planet, during this time of the year - that should be built into expectation.