Typhoon Tip

It's all in the indices ... as far as I can tell. The operational runs and even the ensemble means ( which the indices are based upon, which is odd ) don't seem to reflect the former. They may given time. who knows

Yeah ... I mean that should be factored.

64 ... mini spike occurred about 2 hours back when it went from ass packed to just cloudy. Actually .. there was like two, 2 minute sun splashes for the course to be fair.

It echoes the 2021 heat bomb ... not coincidentally in my mind. I don't believe the two have desperate causality. The background causing both may be of the same, in other words.

This MJO appears more coherent as it readies a move into the Phase 3-6 modes. That may have a bearing on westerly wind contamination in the lower latitudes... Back west of the "MDR" but with the La Nina dead/dying it would seem to green like the propagation into the 7-8-2 thereafter, doing so more successfully than the La Nina "firewall" was allowing it to do over previous months. That's your westerly wind burst perhaps... I dunno end of June?

It's annoying when the satellite presentation shows a cloud pattern that's become corpuscular looking, yet ... the sun is some how NEVER in between the corpuscles -

Here's a random thought ... if ( and probably when ) the cold dinner apocalypse happens ... these satellites will continue broadcasting what their cameras see of the world below ... to no one, for decades. Can you imagine if we escaped this world and became an interstellar species like Star Trek or whatever, and happened across a planet with all these satellites in orbit taking random pictures and loops of clouds and smoke over an empty world?

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration announced that the carbon dioxide level measured in May in Hawaii averaged 424 parts per million. That's 3 parts per million more than last year's May average and 51% higher than pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm. It is one of the largest annual May-to-May increases in carbon dioxide levels on record, behind only 2016 and 2019, which had jumps of 3.7 and 3.4 parts per million. "To me as an atmospheric scientist, that trend is very concerning," said NOAA greenhouse gas monitoring group leader Arlyn Andrews. "Not only is CO2 continuing to increase despite efforts to start reducing emissions, but it's increasing faster than it was 10 or 20 years ago." Nothing's going to happen until the wealthy can't eat -

Significant heat signal continues to gain coherency for post ~ 13th ...

I know this isn't what folks wanna hear around the Holidays but one of the better memories I have spanning the last 10 year's worth of Xmas' was that 2014, when it was 70 F on Xmas day and the fam/friends were enjoying the outdoors. I guess if you'e in here satisfying a pure neurotic snow/cold OCD ...such visions do not inspire the precious state, but for those of us that appreciate the fuller spectrum of weather results - it was exotically wonderful out of doors that day. 'Sides ... not without compassion, the Feb 2015 that set in some 3 or 4 weeks later was just as fantastic.

Just adding in brief... there is a robust MJO signal that is emerging in strength, in model trends ... from all tool sources, and it portends to a wave space that correlates to a +AO. Not sure how that factors into the dizzying array of posted material that seems to convey simultaneous points at times ( lol..) but, I thought I'd add that to ( hopefully) confuse matters even more... j/k. But seriously on the MJO stuff. The other aspect, the dispersion mechanics at large scales - it isn't very clear to me how the MJO forcing ( or not) integrates into the boreal summer hemisphere. It prooobably does not as well as the cold season for obvious reasons. That said, the last 3 weeks seemed to align fairly well with the MJO progression over the time span... It sent a blocking signal, we have been plagued by a blocking quasi-omega ridge like feature across the southern Canadian Shield ...and everyone's happy. Seems to be trying to lag into a -NAO response, too - but I wonder if these upstream Pac/dispersion arrivals might abandon that look some. I've been watching this signal with the phase 2.5 --> 6.5 emerge and it's getting robust at this point. I think or would suggest that the "forcing" from that might not yet be "detected" in the modeling physics just yet; if/when that happens we'd see more of these warm blooms into mid latitudes - there's been an increase in model cycles that depict a June 15th + for an orientation switch as it is... Which would steepen the gradient wrt the vestigial polarward height nadir, ...speeding up the vortex --> +AO. So supposition involved there... Sorry for the lesson ...just explaining the thought circuitry -

Good op for observational science tomorrow ... Do smoke aerosols have any effect in the condensate micro-physics? -think SAL dust. With SAL, it creates an over-abundance of condensation nuclei, which too much proficiency cause the moisture to disperse among them and halts the adiabatic process. Not sure about smoke though ... There's also a 'scrubbing' question for me. Like, I wonder if a CB spreads an anvil and moves down stream, does it leave streak where's it's tunneled a gap through the smoke plume. Actually, it probably moves along with the smoke so likely not... unless the steering is differentiable/sheer per altitude.

We may actually improve conditions from the NE today... Looking at obs/sat/rad trends, there's a clear dry slot/wrap-around moving apace SW down the Maine coast that's unzipping this gunk. That, worked over by the sun ... perhaps we end up with a better afternoon? I would have "enjoyed" this stretch much more if we actually got real rain out of it. I don't think I've had much more than an inch to 1.25" since this April cut-off set up shop out there - which is okay.. but 3 or 4 would have been better. Which .. this is exactly what this has been. It's just doing it excessively late. I've seen coastals in June before. But they move right along. This stalled, murky spikes of Labrador ass vomit thing is pure April, happening about 45 days later in the climate calendar than typical. One paragraph op-ed: I think it is an indirect CC/attributable aspect. The seasonal lagging has been more prevalent in the last 10 to 15 years... It's like the new mid winter speed rage thing is "pushing" the real winter climate backward October/November ... and post-lapsing it into Mays. Hence why we've seen so many odd snow and/or snow-supporting atmospheric wave events in those respective transition months. Granted, we're not getting a snow supportive jack-shit in June. The point is ... these climate signals are being pushed ahead of schedule in autumn, and seemingly delay in springs in general.

I'm wondering if the guidance is even factoring in the smoke sort of aerosol contaminant. I mean there is hope that this shit-show has an intersession tomorrow ...with sun into western zones while at least partly cloud along the coast ... This would send T's into the low 70 on average given the thermal column. However, that smoke on vis imagery this morning is dense, enough so to obscure the ground almost entirely out there in western Ontario, and it is heading south/east... At what point does it cost temperature? The thing is, smoke aerosols are not micro-physically the same as volcanic aerosols. There absorption spectra is different ...I think on both side, incoming vs outgoing converted radiation ?

Heh...just glanced over the Premmie cimo sheets and most sites are well above normal for June so far. lol. certain to change once today's poison gets in the punch. Yesterday's bootlegged midnight high made the neggies seem almost manageable. It's like this whole ordeal's trying to hide while it rapes

You may be right about him ... .however, he is also right about you. You're taking a sky light shot then posting as though it defines 'the day' when the satellite and other data sources do no support that, which thus comes off as mmm a 'little' disingenuous honestly. By the way, there are bands of showers pressing SW and may be there before the end of the afternoon.

Yup - monitoring that... Very tentatively so far but that has the look of a hemispheric sea-saw into a regime that hosts more in the way of 'big heat' type. Not these 91/48 kind of "fake" heat bursts. That's wholesale change, and is also statistically rooted in a coherent index mode change. The daily model grind seem oblivious to it - perhaps only for the time being. Fits the compensation model to get us back to (climo+ cc)/2 ... in more of a spatial sense. The "synergistic heat wave" are another level above, but they come along with that suggestion as a wild-card, however utterly invisible at this range.

Hmm ... nah, prefer "hence, not eating all the Labrador anus vomit, just some of it" lol

Tough call... It's subjective, I know - even if the day sucks, some denial and spin will take place ... But, I do see a little hope from about HFD-EEN west related to the intense June sun modulating the atmosphere and blurring the boundary between this cut-off stalled coastal cyclone vs the better airs west of New England. What you'll have to overcome is that this is retrograding - literally.. It's moving W, en masse. That may compensate for some of that 'erosion' aspect I just described above. Either way, everyone is till in the grips of this unusual winter like not summer and no reason to claim it is pattern - just to be clear. It's a matter of how much or how little. The real freedom is west of Albany.

Not entirely sure what the boreal summer AMO correlation is to pattern tendencies... In the winter, theAtlantic tripole is correlated pretty brightly to the -NAO bias. That layout up there is pretty clearly in dipole, and is actually correlated to the +NAO, which is the warm phase ( obviously...). With the wave lengths shorted/ R-wave order a bit less coherent in summer, not sure if either (-) or (+) phase biases in the NAO have the same correlation to eastern N/A escape latitude of the westerly main axis. That all said ... I tend to lean in favor of significant heat ( above the back ground climate signal) this summer east of 100W Most folks in here care more so how this shit correlates to winter...understood. Aging this summer into autumn through a +NAO bias is interesting if/when a warm ENSO erupts. For one thing, +NAO is correlated well with recurving hurricanes (Lance Bozart et al.), which warm ENSO ... don't exactly deny the hurricane season on the Atlantic side but it doesn't correlate very well. There's also a QBO consideration there that's important not to miss. Anyway, it seems the polar index year might be positive as it gets involved into the cold season. The space weather factor, good ole sol, is ultra-violet hot. That and the QBO, they are out of phase with -AO... ( the causal link is the W phase of the QBO vs E modulates the spatial orientation of the AO domain space ..geometrically enhancing(reducing) the mode.) Wait..check that with the QBO - we might be heading toward a phase reversal? It would not be a treat for many over eastern N/A mid latitudes if we end up with a +AO winter whilst a STJ starts pushing tulip shoots 10 minutes ( sarcasm) after the winter solstice. The other aspect I'm playing with ( for good reason) is that the El Nino's physical forcing on the mid latitude R-wave distribution is different now due to climate change - it is best perceived - hence why increased spans of time of apparent resonance disconnect/decoupling wrt to R-wave. In some respects, we have to leave more room open to the possibility of winters just simply not behaving like the climate/statistical history inferences argue it should - those historic climates did not have climate and change happening when they occurred, so the correlations can't be the same. That's just rudimentary logic -

Point is ... you either accept our climatology/get real, and therefore considering where we've been ... figure we're batting in all-star range right now. Or, you're unrealistic and your expectations are full of crap. ...up to you... I realize I'm finger wagging at the straw-man, just sayn'. I've seen it worse in June though, btw - It's barely June. It's like blaming the child prodigy because they can't play sports with the other college kids. I bet this month ends up above normal - any takers?

I mean in terms of quota ? we're not fairly hurting - no way. That was like a 9.8 Mem Day Weekend ... The return rate on having all 3 days rate -able so high, unperturbed like that is probably 30 years or something... Pretty sure no one thought of that statistical oddity there. And the week since only had the modest cool shot on Tuesday but we quickly recovered and nary missed a heat wave by a day - at least here. Thur and Frid were both 92 and 93 respectively. So it's shitty today. Wahhhhhh ... cry me a river.

The models have come a long way ... seein' as they now can detect the actual Labrador anus

Fairly significant heat signal materializing beyond next week.

I was wondering about that this morning.. .how it compares to the 2021 4th of July weekend of the damned ... Wasn't that Saturday, July 2nd in the upper 40s ? I was thinking that 2021 scenario was actually closer to the sun's perennial zenith. I wonder what the coldest solstice high low /diurnal mean actually is. I recall ... 2001 I think it was ( so I guess I don't recall very well ha!). I was peering out the 3rd floor of my apartment window over Chestnut street below, living in Waltham .... that May 19th or 22nd ... it was like literally a month from the solstice, and there were white rain globs going passed embedded in the sheets of upper 30s rain. It was mixing with bow-tie pasta