Typhoon Tip

Bump for relevancy … we’ll have see if the N reposition by GFS was just a coincidence

yup...last 10 days of the month.

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May come stormin' back N whence the relay gets underway this evening and overnight. Not a forecast - but there is a non-zero probability that this thing's missing something due to assimilation over the E Pac. Some of this system's getting lost to us in recent runs is also related to the handling of the western ridge and the N/stream sliding over top of it. We had some implications for phasing up through a couple day's ago, but now the ridge is positively tilting and the N/stream is displacing E of the southern aspect ...thus missing phasing. Not sure if that part can correct and probably won't, but in the off chance the southern aspect relays in stronger it could adjust that along the EC.

I didn't think the summer was that hot .... I mean, we own the nocturnal inferno thing. But the days seemed retrained some beneath memorability. Ha, namely ...I don't personally remember that as a hot day-time exposure.

There's a landscape machinery repair and sales type outfit here in town, and you drive by there and there's rows of neglected snow blowers, sparkly as though wearing their best clothes ...standing in wait on adoption day at the local orphanage. Putting their best behavior foot forward they're smiles in waste. They were born into this world in haste, but now ...for most of them ... they'll never be a part of a family.

numerical PNA from the GEFs basis is trying to rise in last night's computation, perhaps picking up on limiting warm up pattern length. We'll see if that has legs. The spatial interpretation still illustrates a PV situated on our side of the hemisphere, with N-NE Pac occasional ridge presentation - not hugely amplified, nor deeply anomalously cold over the Canadian shield ( geopotential heights) but if that is true (in the EPS and GEPs as well ) doesn't exactly lend to warmth.

Save for the 18 hour arctic headline event... Seems that was pretty well nailed down, though the GFS - if anything - was too warm until maybe 3 cycles before the invasion swept through. Otherwise, yup ... I remember a couple of BDs last year that ended up milder like that ...not hugely so, but 2 or 3F ... I was thinking then that it's getting a little weird that both sides of boundaries exhibit the similar error behavior - if not so much by scalar magnitude therein. anyway yeah. Folks should should just protocol a 2 F add-on as an auto adjust. LOL and go up from there.

I've been noticing this for years, actually. I don't look at any MOS or 2-meter T products anymore, as my ability to quick calc the adiabat and adding some perfunctory ( CC ?) five. That does vastly superior to any of those machine interpolations. It's weird that all modeling technology, despite any source ... is low on 2-m, always. Well - not always... If it's inundated saturation, sure. I don't believe - seriously - that's CC.. I think there's a systemic problem in mixing/BL handling. It's hard to know for certain what drives that. It's also typically worse from roughly now through early August... every year.

Every year has it's own 'personality' ... I agree this year's been a little unusual - to put it softly ... - wrt to the bold statement. I mentioned this to Will when commiserating yesterday, that this year has been strangely failing in despite some more advantaged/conventional aspects. Take 2006-2007.. At least through mid January, that year had no conventional aspects. Nothing... it was utterly shut completely down, both pattern, and contained events. 0 winter definition. Period. For 45 days... This year, that was not true... yet, may as well be the same result.

wouldn't that be hilarious... I can see that in the opening scene of a comedic genre film, where there's rush to cut to commercial because the star of the movie, a hapless on-camera talen, loses it, and his/her exit interview is an extended outlook that that says, "piece of shit" for the next 10 days

Haha... I was just going to say... well, actually, I was going to say, "the GFS has no interest in a warm up at all" ... In fact, that looks like a steady diet of flat waves capable of snow right through the SE ridge flex. ...actually it does have a cutter, too. little hyperbole. Re the Euro: its precarious synoptics, nearing D10 ( high confidence, I know!), totes an 850 mb continental WCB with 850mb of +13C. The PGF suggests 15-20 kts of tumbling mix, too. I checked the RH fields just for shits and giggles and they're nada on clouds. 700, 500, 300's all < 50% RH at 18z preceding... That would be probably 74F day. Yep... here we go again. Just like to remind, ...we put up mid 80s off 13C at 850, as we went super adiabat - dry air heat late winter into early spring, prior to green up, can mix BL very tall. That was in 2017. The point is...it can happen, not claiming any analog. So ironically, heat has a mechanism for over producing prior to the continental DP sucking kinetic heat. That said, precarious should be underscored. The entire Canadian shield is actually -20 or lower at 850 mb, if/when very stupidly using the Euro at this range. And actually ...the gradient between the warm tongue of air described above, and that cold mass near by in Canada, is very steep. This is like sniffing out a mere warm sector to me ( wrt the Euro...), more so than defining an extended pattern stay. I mean it seems that way.. That cold lurking by, which is present in GEFs ensemble systems too... so a smidge of cross guidance support on the gradient idea.., is a mere synoptic giga movement from ending any debate. Well anyway... I realize the La Nina climo this, and historic precedence for torching that... yup, all that. But we have to pay attention to metrics too, and a progressive pattern trend with embedded opportunities for amplitude, with so much cold loaded not far away, could also lend to GFS type evolution - even if its perhaps overdoing it. The funny thing is... if you took the GFS' 00z snow event around that time, and averaged with the Euros 74 F utopia, what do you get? The same 42 F cloudy p.o.s. agonizingly uninspired boring winter we've had all along. Yup...that's my official forecast... piece of shit. LOL

Yeah good question but after studying the graphs of the propagators (I can’t pick it up right now I’ll do it tomorrow night if anyone’s interested) … The propagation is a logarithmic decay in a downward progression gradually increasing the x-coordinate until it finally breaches the tropopause. So that curvature and trajectory typically takes 20 days. The AO, it doesn’t start interacting with the tropopause that’s when the index goes negative because that’s when the stabilization inversion starts breaking down the vortex; blocking nodes erupt and the annular structure of the polar region buckled around them.

You’re right… But I kind of nested a point in there that if we map what you’re saying over the top of Lanina climo …that kind of changes the landscape a little. I mean we’re just talking early prognostic measures here …it can certainly break either way. After having studied those sudden stratosphere warming events going back to 1979 very intently over the years I’ve just come to find those that happen in February are less representative in forcing the negative AO in spring also not as much realization of negative temperature departures at mid latitude. I also agree that the application of SSW is - at least for me - come under question for the usefulness frankly. Because I’ve seen the AO meander quite negative in years where there’s a SSW and subsequent propagation took place … you couldn’t parse out what was being caused by the SSW what was just there because of other planetary mechanisms

20 days. You put a ?… I was just answering your question OK there’s no condescension - if you know the information you know the information but it didn’t look like you did because the example you labeled is not a propagating SSW - which was my only point.

You need to read the post I put in above - particularly the bold statement. SSW doesn't mean anything to the mid latitudes of the planet if that is not happening. The AO can be negative with or without the SSW factor constructively interfering ... but the correlation between SSW is 3 weeks, then a -AO ensues as the PV stabilizes.

If an SSW happens now ... and proves to be a downward propagating phenomenon/mass ... through the vertical coordinates of the stratospheric column, the tropopausal interaction times for early March... If said evolutionary arc begins in a week, it times for mid March... and so on. There is no -AO correlation prior to that time lagged offset. That's awfully late in the solar calendar. The mid latitude flow may be breaking down? That's the climate for that time of year March --> ... hense 'bowling season' Cut offs that if timed right, can produce like April '97, but far more commonly they ruin 10 days with 39 F light rain. That is the total circuiting manifold of the AO beginning to disconnect as that month moves on. In a La Nina year with a history of actually being better coupled (more so than the last year and prior..>)... mm. La Nina notoriously favor warmer springs. It's like we are running out of time for SSWs, made even worse by the latter climo suggestion. We could actually fit mid month's warm up...followed by a would-be attempt at a 2 week recovery... then fade, nicely prior to any influence at mid latitudes by an SSW ... mid March. When they are that late... I just wouldn't put much hope in that if I were the crew.

heh...as a morbid experiment... if you took every day's worth of temperature and cloud cover averages for this winter, and averaged them out, I bet that mean would look and feel just exactly like right at this moment. This ... this is our winter, 2022-2023 lol

Lol.... like, the way this winter is going, that evidence will have to be yesterday - seems like this year could pull off the quantum uncertainty of snowing 13"/hour while it's plain rain.

The bold is it in a nut shell. Yup - I said almost the exact thing in internal monologue earlier today - we are verifying signals really well, but the results have been just about 0%. Very bizarre. There is a storm signal on the EC that's been there for 2 weeks, really. But it's probably going to be too late and clobbering the Maritime region instead. It's solid signal with nothing to show for it. It's the persistence in doing that, specifically too. The Buffalo Bomb. Again... huge signal, verified ... by soring butts. w t f I guess the frustration there is that yeah...signals don't guarantee a result - we all know that. But, never ? You'd expect after 15 or 20 signals show up, 1 mother f'er would...

I wrote a paragraph to some other poster with a weird handle like Djii l-m-n-o-p or whatever, earlier about this. This seems a little different this time. The handling has been too on or off, more wholesale, with whether additional cyclogen will exist along the upper MA at the end of the week. It's not usually like that and it makes me wonder about assimilation.

Or whatever we wanna call it - good riddance ... I'd rather 'reset' on the far side of the mid month - ... The way I figure we got a 2 week window through about Mar 3, then we're in a bowling season ... which is like 60 F blase' faire days that could April '97. haha... can you imagine that, 35" of blue to make the season average -

Yeah.. the three run trend got summarily shut down. Some guidance were inching back with the week's end event, but all that work over the last 3 .. 4 cycles just got dashed. It seems, however, that we are flip flopping with the amount of actual trough mechanics coming off the Pacific. It seems about every 3rd or so group of runs has been carrying more or less trough potency across the continental mid latitudes. That strikes me as - maybe - data assimilation irregularities. The governing total mechanical space is entirely contained over the open Pacific expanse until 36+ hours from now. This used to be much more of a factor up through about 10 or so years ago, assimilation and detection in data sparse regions. But improvements in assimilation became pretty notable around that time - since then...we don't see as much corrections upon relay off the ocean over western North America. That being true, it doesn't lend to assimilation irregularities being the cause presently. Still, these are really quite notable on-off back and forths in handling for some reason.

Mixed emotions... Like, light or no wind moments in post Feb 8..10th sun, in 48 F, is remarkably sexy to the senses ...and in that soothe the last thing I want is protracted winter. But, then later that evening ...the new runs come out with an 1888er out there, and the only thing I wanna see is a cold source available to the vision. I can turn it on or off pretty quickly when either bias is believable. As an aside, February's remind me of the antithesis of August. You can be sitting in close to triple digit heat on Aug 15, and mere weeks later ... some anomalous cold plume has grapple and air that smells like snow. You can't say that if it's a hot day in May... The same sort of 'seasonal boundary' effect happens going the other way. Not this year... but it is conceivable to be logging a real winter, and be in a gelid winter storm scenario on the 20th of the February ... and be 80 mere weeks later. You can't really say that in December. Aug and Feb are like unsung boundary months ... For those that are in tune to that affect, knowing that a different world is 'right there,' or could be. I remember one year recently we had a March Nor'easter. It came in at 27 or so F, with S+, and some wind kicked in toward mid morning. The event totals ~ 10" Just when it was going to get special, the temp pushed toward 32..33 and snow type went wetter - the invisibility improved... Then there was a couple of flashes of lightning ... We stayed snow and ended dripping at 34F, but I remember the thunder snow like it was more so an homage to this affect. It was like warm season trying to crowd into the event - just symbolic thinking of course... I think it was finally pushing 70 a week later for the first profound effort to leave that year's cold season. 2017 maybe ?

That looks gaining traction and is intriguing - imho... I'm still unsure on the mid month 'warm burst' potential - the scale and degree of that. It may only be a series or rotted warm sectors ... with putrid cool backs, while the TV sees a run at 70 F...or, recent history combined with ...blah blah blah telecon spread certainly would allow for bigger balloon. After that, the GEFs and the GEPs suggest the entire NH PV slips off it's axis and winds up situated over the N archipelago of Canada... This was hinted over the last several days ...but at 300+ hours, it could just be the entropic state from all the noise of spaghetti averaging... etc. This last night, though ... it has take on real/more structure ... We'll see - The distant numerical indexes did not really reflect that look, but ... it's almost a look that fits inside a neutral field. The PNA looks so-so +, the EPO so -, the AO flat-lined. But the PV is just tilted off the axis of the typical geography, and repositions on our side of the hemisphere, by just enough. interesting...