Typhoon Tip

Nasty ice storm central NE

3 for the moment ...

Anyone want a lesson in destructive interference ... look at the 18z GFS

Gummies?

That's a good question actually... man, I wish we had all this telecon wizardry and cinema back on circa February 15, 1956... What would that've looked like. It's also like that for 1978... 1888 - man that'd been a neat D10, huh

Hahaha... let's not get carried away.. but I like the vibe

It's fascinating really... All these longer term correlations going the other way, while the operational and ( we'll see if it sticks -) now the ens constructing the north Pacific with the AB mode/ridge up there. I mean I think that's the crucial piece...that construction is setting the wave scaling down stream into a favorable continent/+PNAP... It even transitively sets the NAO upon a trajectory that might emerge more negative - given time. We'll see on that... But if you're a winter enthusiasts, this is what you wanted to see all along - these hints of favorable pointing 'correction vectors'. Next thing to look for is continuity.

It's similar to the 00z GGEM with a strong ejection of the lead disturbance ...10th... Not sure I'm buying that. The 00z to 12z position of that feature in the D6-7 range was quite the east adjustment, indicative of continuity issues with that aspect. The following more important trough identity upstream is actually more consistently placed in longitude, and yes ...it times with the GFS - but the lead aspect is suspect to me.

Exactly ... question is, when? Even residually the Nina "memory" should promote a warm-ish spring. But let's assume the 'booster' idea works in favor... maybe we can get these last several cycles of the deterministic GFS to win through the 20th or so, and get enough snow to ruin the futility while keep us safely inside of aggravatingly at a loss hahahaha. J/k... but in all honesty, I wasn't think that this cooler pattern we are in would protract through mid month, but the GEFs at 00z hinted in favor of the oper. a bit more.

This turn around is really fascinating for "weather enthusiasts" Not so much - maybe - for "winter enthusiasts"

That's not true ? It's not black or white ... - and it was not "exotically" well coupled, either. What do you think driving the Pac jet up San Francisco's bum for 3 straight weeks was all about. LOL

Sort of like that ... but in this case, the difference are even closer spaced within the L/W. Both solutions have the GGEM's "10th" -it's really more of an emphasis thing. The GFS is weak with the lead, the GGEM is intense. The difference morphs what can/would happen toward the EC out in time.

yeah...The usual ensemble reliance is probably the course of lesser regret for now. Although, I think the GGEM's total synoptic evolution is nod toward a GFS type solution - it could simply be in flux modulating toward the more +PNAP nested look of the GFS. Just needs some another cycle or two. If the ens means of both start converging - and the Euro joins, we have specified event within the 10-15th arena to focus.

GGEM and GFS are really completely different evolutions. The fact that the GGEM is smeared between the 10/11th ...and the GFS is 11/12th might be clue there. But looking closer at the total integral of the whole synoptic space, the GGEM keys in on a lead S/W ejected out of the L/W ... really by the 9th, just 6 days from now. It's already passing STL. It is, however, a significant correction SE at least with the track aspect alone comparing the 00z rendition. If future runs were to dump the lead S/W emphases/idea, it probably defaults quickly into a GFS type latter aspect... The GFS has that lead feature weak and ejected even sooner... flat and heading due east into the Atlantic graveyard, instead putting all emphasis on the aft region of said L/W, which ejects more full bodily a day or so later and ends up being a weirdly non-committal coastal low. That seems like it tried to "bomb" but failed, and ends up with that open core look like that. I think the progressive bias that is native to the GFS, particularly out in time...may be tripping it up in terms of timing critical intra-trough mechanics. It like facilitates its own internal destructive interference between jet maxims.

...it's been doing that for 5 days - haha. I know what you mean tho

It appears to me there's a subtle offset by solar here as we hit mid day. Just ever so slight... Probably the temps resume fall in tandem with the sloping afternoon. This is like the very first "sun bust" ... however slight

I haven't actually seen much wave propagation over the right side of that diagram, either. I was just saying a similar thing to Easton' .. That said, this is also the most robust I have seen the GEFs attempt a 3-6 propagation - fwiw. Also, the Euro's various product suite has been very slowly gaining some projection strength over the last several days of outlooks. The thing is... 3-6 is a constructive interference - in so far as it being "less destructive" ... Should the wave strength continue to and verify, than the -PNA in the GEFS and EPS ( which they tend to agree on this latter facet, regardless ) that begins to slope down post the ides of the month, might actually assist the emergence of more actual warm looking model projections. It seems what the operational GFS is doing - to me - is like picking up where the pattern change we'd been monitoring that tookd f'n 2.5 weeks to get here, left off, and just not seeing any forcing that is capable of changing it. Henceforth these tasty taunts with systems gliding along a colder track and also having cold air available...etc..etc.. I think it's precarious... not just because the season has proven bad for winter enthusiasts, either, but because of the foresaid analysis. One thing I noticed is that the GFS is behaving more -NAO like with the total hemispheric space compared to it's GEFs mean. In the dailies, the 00z GEFs mean showed more committed Miller B happening along the NJ latitude, about as coherent as it ever would for D9. The GEPs? Forget it.. The Canadian sees +NAO great lakes cyclone sucker pattern. But because of the deterministic versions hemisphere, you can see why it ejects tracks a bit SE of the GEF mean. Feb 10-14 is a signal ...for what, we need time.

Unlikely. In so far as attempting to predict the MJO wave behavior alone, it is more likely it migrates around spaces 3-6 as a low to medium amplitude propagation, then terminates (ultimately...) along the 7/8 boundary. Probably also after the few days just prior to, try to sell it actually moving through 8. I'm just basing that on two primary methods: One, seasonal persistence to die and end up winding into oblivion inside the RMM N/S region, after models seem convincing it it will finally succeed in propagating through 8 - never actually doing so... (duping optimists). ALL THE TIME. The other reason, is the reason why that has been the case. The Pacific basin has been in robustly coupled state with the La Nina much of the way this season - so far... The only time it was not, back in Dec ... there wasn't any waves ejecting out of the Marine sub-continent to take advantage... Such that the total wave behavior this season so far is seemingly incapable of ever getting through 8-1-2 successfully... Perhaps this all breaks down over the next 3 weeks and we find ourselves in a new paradigm that allows that to happen? could be - who knows. But it's tough to go against persistence when present state is more coupled than not ( which is a destructive interference regime), and that state has proven impenetrable all season.

I'm sure you guys have taken notice to just how illustriously the 00z GFS is seeing the expected mid month turn-around into a spectacular warm up ...

Seems the models are hinting are more of a general period that may last 4 days ... couple of events nested inside, spread out over gray days in between. 18z GFS looked like cold solutions for us, with options for mixy/ice and or snow. Previous runs were quite a bit NW ... I don't actually have a problem with the NW solution set, though. The NAO being positive favors that storm track... so, I'm not willing to trust these eye candy cycles like this one until maybe 8 days from now. haha

It's actually true in the summers, too. In fact ( for me personally -) I was only considering that a summer phenomenon until last week when I was reviewing the monthlies at NWS. It seems to be yearly observation and seasonally independent. Fascinating -

I just can't believe how fast the time has gone by... When we "joked" ( while looking sideways ...) about that, I remember thinking 3...maybe 4 seasons. Then ( and funny you brought this up..), I was just thinking about that "pay back climate" BS ( which is really is... but for the sake of discussion - LOL ) last week, with 2015 in mind... "Yeah...I guess we're still - wait a second!" That was 7 ... 8 f'n years ago. Here's the deal, ... that was three.5 weeks of that onslaught of intermittent deep cold (more on then off) with well timed snow events - snow events whose results ( I've always thought ) were inflated by high ratio circumstance. It kind of really was about cold in that period of time... You mix any precipitating machinery into that kind of cold and we'd probably fair at minimum, okay. But we put a couple of coastal into the fray of the 3.5 week trip and next thing we know... we have to pay for it for a decade!? ...That just doesn't seem like 'climate justice' Some crude philosophy on this.. Honestly not what I had in mind. Even in sarcasm, that seems a bit steep. But lets look at this objectively: How much snow did we get in each of the 7 winters since? How many of those were above normal vs how many were below normal. Of those that are above normal, what percent of average were the positive departures. Of those that were below... do the same arithmetic. Then, compare those - which has the greater value... So long as we're "pretending" there is any veracity to the "pay back" expectation, we can try to make some sense within itself. I just think that 2015 ( in retrospect ) ...might have happened on a climate island? ..so to speak. I think those "rogue wave" historic things have to be given allowance space, as things that are going to happen. You just accept that within all complex, noisy systems in nature, they will at times engender exceptional outliers that don't represent the "genetics" of the machinery. It's almost like you remove 1888, 1978, 2015 ...etc ( pick an exceptional outlier), the 1930s heat... 2005 hurricane season... and just calculate a climate that does not include those. This latter, softer longer termed mean would be our real expectation curve. Just be aware that we live in an environment where rogues can happen just like a vast sea of countless 20 ft swells rears a single 100 foot monster, once, ...maybe.

Do you mean where we’re going… Or where we’ve been - I don’t know how we survived that duck hunt cold pattern back in Dec without taking even one snow bullet … That was like some kinda Quantum superposition theory where we were winning it all while losing everything. It will be interesting to top that “bad luck” lol

Ridging has already returned there in the longer term means. Really more a question if stability and within that stability is there an amplitude increase. Time will tell …

I realize y'all be jokin' but ... I'll still say I'm not sure about 'shorts weather' next week. But with the state of hypertension in younger generations alarming in medical journals to NCBI papers ... that'll cook up enough body heat to think it is LOL No, but I see it returning to 38 to 48 type temperature tendency ... 2-meters in the deterministic models are really still capped at or < 40, so I'm willing lean a bit on those sources as (likely) poorly handling the BL aspects. So supplying a modest positive correction. But that does not look like a 'balmy' time when supplying that fix. I think there's been some romanticism around the notion of this cold incursion having a handsome noteworthy turn around ... Objectively, I'm wondering why-for folks are thinking this?